ECMWF 00z op run today is predicting an historic snowfall event over the UK for Wed/Thu next week. Widely >30cm of snow over inland southern half of England and Wales! Details will certainly change before we get there, but keep an eye on next week - it could be interesting! ❄️❄️
And just so the Mediterranean doesn't feel left out with the Atlantic having all the fun, a medicane (a Mediterranean tropical-like cyclone), currently in the Ionian Sea looks to hit Greece later this week.
Look at the size of the snowflakes!
Stunning footage captured by Dan Mezők yesterday at 14:39 in Baia Mare (Romania) 🇷🇴 Approximately 240 m above sea level.
Many thanks for sharing this with us!
Bitterly cold across Scandinavia with Buresjön in Sweden falling to -34.7C last night. This is the lowest November temperature recorded here since 2010 & also the lowest in mainland Europe of the winter season so far.
And it doesn't seem to be letting up any time soon either..❄️
A great start to 2019 for cold lovers on the latest ECMWF.
Easterly flow with widespread European cold... However, let's not get carried away. This ECMWF run is about 10-15C colder at 850 hPa in Western Europe compared to GFS. Nice to look at for now though.
The charts everyone has been waiting for! After largely above normal temps for November so far, colder weather is finally on the way to the British Isles...
Canada has now broken their all-time temperature record for a THIRD day running, with a staggering 49.6C (121.3F).
In just three days, the highest temp ever recorded on earth north of 50N latitude has been shattered by just over 5 degrees. This is a
#climateemergency
.
We've seen some heavy snow over the past weekend in eastern-most Europe. Further snowfall events to come this week, as the cold weather expands. The Alps and Central Europe will catch some especially heavy falls, but even a covering in some parts of the UK from Thursday onwards!
ECMWF and GFS bringing two areas of cold towards the end of the run. This is pretty good agreement for this range. Compare the latest data in one panel here -->
Cold Turkey! That's what the forecast models are predicting in next couple of weeks, and over SE Europe in general. Some nasty wintry weather on the way here, with several rounds of strong winds and heavy snow. Good for Balkans and NE Alps ski resort prospects.
Up in the mid-upper Polar Stratosphere (20-30km above the Pole), there are signs the currently stronger than normal Polar Vortex will start to weaken/warm by end of Jan/early Feb. Details on this are still not clear yet, but how this pans out will be key for February's weather!
GFS 12Z uncanny resemblance to December 2010.
Building blocks are in place for exceptional cold towards the end of November. Still a lot to nail down, but really worth keeping track of the models over the next few days.
Latest GFS is in -->
Incredible warmth for November. Let's be clear though. The anomaly maps are often incorrectly interpreted.
This compares the predicted temperature at ~1.5km above sea level to what we consider normal, a 30-year average. You can see if an airmass is cooler or warmer than normal.
Intense high pressure blocking over N Scandinavia during the next 10 days, combined with a strong N Atlantic jet stream, will encouarge active low pressure areas to stall over W Europe. Plenty of rain on the way, especially NW Iberia, S/SW Alps and parts of UK and Ireland.
It's turning much colder towards the end of the week, thanks to the meandering influence of the jet stream.
The textbook omega Ω block sat to the west of the UK will leave much of Europe stuck beneath a deep upper level trough, allowing cold air to pour in.
Bermuda: 'Thank goodness Florence stayed well to our south...'
Florence: 'Hold my beer'
GFS 18Z: After dumping more than 50 inches of rain in North Carolina,
#Florence
reverses back over open water and heads straight for Bermuda. Insane and unrealistic after landfall.
Europe may be looking at a prolonged warm and settled period, but North America looks to stay in the freezer for a while yet...
North America map -->
Europe map -->
Exciting to see a stratospheric warming this early in the winter. What we know:
-
#Polarvortex
will become significantly displaced
- Splitting vortex is a possibility but not set in stone
- Disruption to the PV is good for blocking/cold regimes
- Too early for country specifics
This animation shows total accumulated rainfall (mm) for the next 10 days, as predicted by the
#ECMWF
HRES model. A large swathe of northern mainland Europe into UK expected to see little or no rainfall, while southern Europe is widely wetter than average.
Many thanks for the continued support! 2018 has been an incredible year with some extraordinary weather events.
We wish you all the best in the New Year and look forward to some exciting WXCHARTS announcements. Stay tuned.
Stratospheric warming likely to become major by definition.
This should be a big player in the Northern Hemisphere winter. Disruption to the
#PolarVortex
usually leads to significant cold-air outbreaks.
Country specific effects are still undetermined.
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Delhi, India saw its coldest day since 1901 yesterday, with daytime max temperatures only reaching 9.4C, around 10C below normal for the time of year.
Temperatures are due to rise closer to average from Friday though.
Stratosphere update: significant disruption to the
#PolarVortex
is now likely due to sudden stratospheric warming. This event will could be the biggest player in defining our northern hemisphere winter -->
ECMWF & ARPEGE now have a similar track for
#Medicane
#Zorbas
.
Intensification over the Ionian Sea before rolling through southern portions of Greece, possibly slamming Crete on the southern flank. Turkish coasts along the Aegean Sea should monitor -->
Watch the cold recycle in the east before a fresh inundation of cold drops in from the north over parts of Central and Western Europe. The orientation of the high will be crucial for Iberia and British Isles to receive cold.
Latest is here -->
Meanwhile, across the Southern Hemisphere...
Unseasonable cold will continue to affect parts of S America, especially southern parts of Brazil and Paraguay, bringing harsh frosts and even snow.
Bitterly cold compared to normal across southern & eastern Europe.
Storm
#Elpis
, as named by the Greek Met Service, will continue to bring snow & sub-zero temperatures into early next week for parts of Greece & Turkey.
Check out how the European snow fields expand next week during the cold spell.
Especially snowy in Turkey, with accumulations of over a metre possible for the mountains!
Stratospheric temperatures above 0C in significant warming event around Christmas. Still signs of the
#PolarVortex
splitting heading into 2019. All to play for -->
The low pressure tracking from the North Atlantic into Scandinavia acts like a powerful engine tapping into the reservoir of cold air in the Arctic and flooding it south into Europe. Very spectacular.
Check out the new GFS forecast data coming in live -->
The impressive warm-cold-warm temperature anomaly pattern is closely linked to the
#jetstream
.
The jetstream will take a more meridional (north-south) orientation over the next few days. This will help drive large scale weather systems so that the cool air reaches North Africa.
This is no April fools!
Unseasonably cold air will start sinking into Europe from the weekend, bringing harsh frosts and snow for some... especially unwelcome news for gardeners at this point!
The 34.3C recorded at Banak, Norway yesterday is a new European record above 70 degrees north.
That’s a full 1°C higher than Ireland’s all time highest temperature in a place where the sun doesn’t rise for almost two month of the year.
Awesome winter scenes from North Africa!
Maldino Ddh captured the snow this morning in the city of Tizi Ouzou, Algeria
40 centimetres fell in the city at elevation 700 meters. Thanks for the report!
How the ECMWF (europ) EPS has behaved over the last 13 runs...
Major
#hurricane
#Florence
still sits at category 4 and is unfortunately showing more and more signs of hovering around the coast -->
Evacuations are underway.
#ncwx
#scwx
The low-pressure out in the Atlantic is currently storm force according to ASCAT.
The satellite image is stunning. (via
@metdesk
)
[ASCAT = Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT). It is used to measure wind speed and direction over the oceans.]
Everyone who does not understand uncertainty in forecasting hurricanes, watch this to see how track and uncertainty change through time during the lead-up to a landfall.
This is
#Florence
forecast tracks from ECMWF (euro) since Wed 5 Sep (9 days before landfall).
########## NOW LIVE ##########
The
#STRATOSPHERE
is a hot topic (no pun intended), but sudden stratospheric (
#SSW
) warming signals are strong.
We have added the 10 hPa winds with zonal mean zonal wind analysis. Check out the shiny new charts here -->
Meanwhile, in South Africa... SNOW!
With temperatures around 8-10C below normal for some, it is bitterly cold. But don't be too alarmed, it is their winter!
GFS keeps hinting at a cleaner split in the
#PolarVortex
with anticyclone over the pole.
Look how symmetric the daughter vortices are towards the end of the run -->
This isn't a chart you'll see too often...snow & ice stretching all the way from Canada, through the US & southwards into Mexico. Absolutely incredible!
Temperatures are plummeting well below average for the time of year, with parts of Texas seeing overnight mins ~5F (-15C).
GFS keeps hinting at
#PolarVortex
wobbles and elongation in the operational run. Significance is too early to determine but something to keep an eye on -->
### COMING SOON ###
Aggregated mean wind charts - the Beaufort scale is combined with the Saffir-Simpson scale so that storm intensity can be easily identified. This is how
#StormCallum
looks --> touching equivalent cat 1 hurricane
Stay tuned for release.
Very interesting possible multi-split in the latest GFS. Check out the the details here -->
Still a lot of uncertainty regarding the
#SSW
impacts. A splitting
#PolarVortex
is certainly a possibility.
Get ready NW Europe,
#WinterIsComing
!
Decent agreement overall from all GEFS members - but still a fair bit of uncertainty over the precise timing and orientation of the
#BeastFromTheEast
over the weekend/early next week
*** MAJOR UPDATE ***
We have a huge update to the entire wxcharts experience coming TOMORROW.
Users will be able to select and compare parameters in customisable panels. Compare models side-by-side...
We have also added towns and cities as an optional overlay.
Stay tuned.