Andrew Austin-Adler @weatherman_aaa Twitter profile

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

8 days

Something must be extraordinarily wrong atmospherically to support such a deluge over the driest region on the planet. Precipitable water anomalies over the Sahara are forecast to be 6 deviations above the climatological mean! Lots of research needs to be done about this

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

19 days

With all the favorability in the #Atlantic , one wonders why it is so dead? 200mb zonal anomaly charts can offer a clue: easterly winds aloft are stronger than we would typically see even in mid-July! This creates an anomalously unfavorable environment with hostile upper-level

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

The latest VP200 anomaly charts show the African standing wave increasing in intensity before the top of the month. (rising motion over Africa) This is a classic look associated with many hyperactive #HurricaneSeasons in the past. Pair this with a +NAO and enhanced ridging

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

24 days

After #Ernesto leaves the scene, the Atlantic is expected to take a quick break. However, this should be short-lived and models are already showing signs of development to round out #August . long-range guidance features a prolific tropical wave emerging from #Africa , following

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

23 days

Multi-model ensemble consensus continues to show a remarkably favorable upper air pattern come #September 1st, with upper-level anticyclonic flow overspreading pretty much the entire tropical #Atlantic . This occurs in tandem with the West African Monsoon transitioning into a

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

The worst thing about sub-seasonal quiet periods - energy is allowed to build, and store, as nothing is available to consume it. The #Atlantic SSTS are holding steady as the 2nd warmest ever recorded (basinwide average) only behind 2023. Ocean Heat Content is at a level never

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

New data is in for the peak of #HurricaneSeason , and it isn't any less concerning. The latest CANSIPS model showcases enhanced precipitation anomalies across the entire Main Development Region (MDR), #Caribbean , and the Gulf of Mexico. This would support the idea of a prolonged

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

Its almost time to ring that bell!🛎️ The CPC has outlined areas of potential genesis for the first 2 weeks of #August ! This lines up perfectly with our expectant arrival of favorable atmospheric conditions, and we can already see the proverbial switch taking place on model

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

20 days

Now that #Ernesto is gone, what's next for the #Atlantic ? Overnight, Models have picked up on 2 tropical waves, each with the potential for development in the MDR. The large-scale environment for these disturbances appears quite favorable, and this area would need to be watched

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

12 days

@weathertrackus This video is like something out of those EAS simulations... absolutely nightmarish

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

With #Beryl falling below Tropical Storm intensity, lets reflect on some of the remarkable meteorological history that its had! ⌛️ Hurricane Beryl passed through the geographical bounds of the #Caribbean entirely as a hurricane; with 95% of its trek at or above category 3

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

27 days

Confidence is increasing that a robust wave of activity will occur in the #Atlantic during the last weeks of #August . The latest VP200 diagrams showcase favorable forcing over Africa during this time, fostering robust AEWs. These waves rarely go away without incident during

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

14 days

Signs of life in the tropical #Atlantic ? 👀 A fairly robust kelvin wave is moving into the basin, and ensembles appear to respond positively, showcasing a fairly vigorous uptrend over the last few cycles. Whether or not this is just background noise or a legitimate signal

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

18 days

While the deep tropical #Atlantic takes a nap, we could see a marginal genesis case occur in the gulf over the next week. A currently anemic tropical wave located over the northern Caribbean islands will interact with a stalled frontal boundary over the #Gulf . This

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

11 days

Contrary to what some would suggest, our #Caribbean disturbance is not a slam-dunk forecast. A pretty significant failmode exists which has resulted in enhanced support variability among models. Currently, energy within the ITCZ is strung out, with 2 vort maxes colocated within

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

I've seen lots of buzz over recent ECMWF operational, and ensemble runs depicting the genesis of a TW within the next 10~ish days. Contrarily, I've also seen conversations about the GFS failing to agree. While both models have their inaccuracies, the GFS I feel has completely

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

After a lull in development, Cooling has appeared to resume across the Equatorial Pacific. Anomalously high trade winds are forecast to continue into August, and the NOAA CPS currently gives a 70-80% chance to dip into #LaNina state by peak season; another troubling factor for

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

22 days

I’ve seen lots of talk about the #HurricaneSeason today, so I’ll contribute the most recent run of the ECMWF weeklies. While The forecast calls for 0.5x the climatological mean for ACE during the next 2 weeks, things quickly ramp up as we head into September. the model

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

16 days

Sunrise over the #Atlantic this morning, and a few features pique my interest. I have highlighted 2 different areas in which models have flirted with development; an emerging tropical wave, and a disturbance that could marginally consolidate in the gulf. The tropical wave is

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

18 days

Well, this is certainly a pretty significant uptick on the GEFS ensembles compared to previous. Only echoing the sentiment of increased tropical activity as we head into #September Let's see if this signal sustains.🌀 #TropicalUpdate #HurricaneSeason

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

25 days

Looking towards the last week of #August , the GEFS ensembles are becoming increasingly aggressive with development in the Main Development Region. This would coincide with a very favorable MJO configuration, featuring rising air over Africa; promoting the development of strong,

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

23 days

Is Hone finally coming? Maybe! 🌀 #HurricaneSeason

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

Another thing to note about our July shutdown this #season . 2004 had 0 storms until the 31st of July, and then it exploded with activity; producing 226.88 ACE by season end. Hypothetically if we have a similar progression this season; following the 3 systems we already have,

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

14 days

the 12z ECENS shows development signals for 2 separate waves. Not sure how much of this is model noise, but could be a sign that things are transitioning into a more favorable state in the #Atlantic . Peak is coming 🌀 #TropicalUpdate #HurricaneSeason

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

With favorable forcing entering the basin by early August, it wouldn’t surprise me if activity begins to increase as we start the month. Even if we continue far into August without any notable activity (looks unlikely at this point) Hyperactive forecasts could still be met.

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

13 days

#Shanshan 115kt - 932mb Majestic and devastating.

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

12 days

Looking across the #Atlantic this morning, a Large, convectively active tropical wave is set to exit the coast of Africa today/tonight. Typically, during an active season, especially this time of year, we would watch this feature for significant #Hurricane development. While

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

I've seen a lot of buzz over the recent July ECMWF seasonal #Forecast - let's crunch the numbers! 🌀 (very long post incoming) I'll preface this by delineating statistical ACE (Accumulated Cyclone Energy) categories: A typical #Hurricane season generates around 75-130% of the

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

13 days

After completing an Eyewall Replacement Cycle overnight, Typhoon #Shanshan is stalling with a remarkable appearance. the JTWC currently assesses the system at 110kts (125mph), but recent satellite estimates suggest Shanshan's initial intensity could be as high as 125kts

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

The latest scatterometer pass missed the center of #98L this morning, however, we can still infer from the data that our disturbance possesses Gales in association with an increasingly sharp wave axis. The convective pattern of 98L appears very healthy, with some primitive

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

15 days

While the operational EC-AIFS model has dropped development this morning, its ensembles still show support for a well defined tropical wave to reach the western #Atlantic in a little over a week. ECENS and GEFS ensembles also have a weak signal, which increases my confidence

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

21 days

Alright everyone, Let’s talk: (very long post incoming) I have seen a lot of people discussing the validity of seasonal forecasts this past weekend; along with the true potential of this hurricane season, and I want to emphasize a few points. The conditions presented this year

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

I now present: The 2024 ADLER-FERREIRA Hurricane Season Outlook!🌀 Its been a long time coming, but better late than never! Our forecast calls for an extremely active #HurricaneSeason , featuring 19-22 Named Storms 10-14 Hurricanes 5-7 Major Hurricanes We also project a very

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

NHC is now going 40% for TCG over the next week. 12Z EPS ensembles are *very* enthusiastic about this system's track and intensity, while the GFS has dropped the system altogether. It appears to me that the GFS solution is quite suspect, given its relative biases surrounding

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

22 days

#Ernesto is adopting a satellite presentation that hurricane models have advertised over the last few days. Now featuring an actual well defined eye, this is the best that the cyclone has looked during its life. More strengthening can occur before it moves into cooler waters

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

9 days

Convection is slowly beginning to consolidate and increase in coverage over an area of concentrated vorticity. This seems like a rather healthy development, but would need to see this sustain for the system to make any notable organizational progress. #TropicalUpdate

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

Hurricane #Beryl has troubling implications for the Atlantic #HurricaneSeason . Let's break it down using historical data! 🌀 Disclaimer: The data shown and discussed is fairly skewed because of hurricanes Alex, Celia, Arlene, Two (1926), Erin, and Allen. (formed in July but

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

17 days

#Shanshan is getting better organized this morning and has now reached #Typhoon strength. What can we expect for the future of this system? Over the next few days, Shanshan's environment appears only marginally favorable, as it will be contending with westerly shear from a ULL.

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

13 days

The NHC highlights a 20% area of interest in the tropical #Atlantic ; but what can we expect? Over recent runs, we have seen greater support variability than clear-cut TCG cases. This can mainly be attributed to the models' difficulty in resolving the "ITCZ-Breakdown". These

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

11 days

GFS 18z is back to showing an amplified feature reaching the #Caribbean . This back and forth echos the extent of model uncertainty, which is remarkably high in this instance. It’s important to not take individual runs at face value as they clearly cannot properly grasp the

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

13 days

Something interesting to note; the MDR should experience a trade reduction over the next week or so, which could present a slightly more favorable environment for Genesis through September. This could tie-in with anomalous rising motion to potentially kick-start heightened

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

There are some interesting things to note regarding the latest ECMWF velocity potential #forecasts . While the eastern #Pacific has been showing signs of life recently, The brief rising cell associated with that activity should abate by next week in lieu of a more dominant

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

The latest NNME sub-seasonal guidance has come out and continues the idea of an extremely favorable #Atlanic Very prominent +AMO signature, with excessively warm water temperatures throughout the basin. It also corroborates the idea of a Cool-Neutral/La Nina to develop by

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

26 days

#Ernesto is now a Category One hurricane as of the 11am advisory. This statistic holds more bearing than initially thought; with now 3 out of the 5 tropical systems this season reaching Hurricane strength. Additionally, all 5 tropical cyclones came from deep tropical origins.

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

Convective activity is slowly #increasing with our wave of interest this afternoon. Deep convection should continue to fire and increase in coverage as the Saharan air layer is slowly eroded. Record warm SSTs and a favorable upper air pattern exist ahead of this system, however,

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

Super Typhoon #Gaemi has likely peaked and is now undergoing an ERC before landfall in #Taiwan . the JTWC assessed the peak intensity of Gaemi at 120kt (140mph), however I think it's much higher than this value. Radar velocities were measured at over 170kts. (172kt to be exact)

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

12 days

#Hone is currently dealing with quite a bit of shear. If it can maintain and survive until the international date line, some model guidance suggests it could encounter a favorable environment, and become a significant #typhoon in the Western Pacific 🌀 It is remarkable how we

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

10 days

Satellite-derived relative vorticity plots this evening show that a vorticity lobe is attempting to consolidate within the broader ITCZ envelope. This would coincide with recent satellite trends, and for what its worth, its presence is fairly uniformly established at both the

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

With #Debby now leaving the scene, the #Atlantic has acquired a total of 40.73 ACE units. This is statistically significant, as it places us in 3rd (behind 1980 and 2005) for the highest ACE ever accumulated to date. (post-1951. Records become increasingly unreliable before this

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

11 days

While the 12z operational GFS dropped development of our system, recent 12z EPS has increased support from 00z. it’s important to always look at the big picture when assessing model trends and conditions! Lots can and will change as the signal progresses with time

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

11 days

NHC maintains 40% at 2pm EDT #tropics

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

Colorado State has just issued its updated #HurricaneSeason2024 forecast, and it's quite alarming. But how does it compare to previous hurricane seasons? assuming the numbers verify, of course. Let's break it down: 🌀 An average season typically includes 14.4 Named storms 7.2

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

26 days

At face value, #Ernesto appears to be organizing quickly, featuring a formative CDO and inner core structure. This is corroborated by MW imagery and Radar showcasing numerous attempts to close off an eyewall. Looking under the hood, however, recon data shows a massive RMW, with

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

Another thing to note about the absurd warmth in the #Gulf : 🌡️ Extreme ocean temperatures can heavily inflate PWAT values, increasing the moisture content in the atmosphere. Record water temperatures on both sides of the Florida peninsula could foster a favorable situation for

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

13 days

New worldwide #Tropical development outlook. A few areas have been highlighted in the #Atlantic , but the western Pacific takes the largest emphasis for potential formation. Will be interested to see where the bulk of tropical cyclone activity focuses during these next few

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

9 days

For what its worth, our disturbance will be moving into an area with quite extreme upper oceanic heat content. Depending on the structure of whatever moves into the region, it may or may not take full advantage of this. Models continue to be incredibly bipolar.

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

28 days

Potential Tropical Cyclone #05L is showing some signs of organization this afternoon, with deep convection firing over what appears to be a formative circulation. the bursts in question have adopted a more pulsating pattern, however, once they become more frequent and

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

16 days

Hurricane #Gilma has regained major hurricane status, with winds of 120mph. Its convective pattern has increased in symmetry, with a well defined, circular eye. This should be short lived as its time over warm waters is quickly running out, and the storm should weaken steadily

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

To echo @BMcNoldy ’s post from yesterday: The #Atlantic ’s most active #HurricaneSeason on record, 1933, would feature MDR sea surface temperature anomalies BELOW the current 30-year running average if they occurred today. This truly underscores the extent of our warming

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

After a few hiccups, it appears that Typhoon #Gaemi (05W) is getting its act together. The cyclone features a rather oblong CDO, with restricted outflow on the north side of the circulation. This could be a temporary hindrance, as an ULL is beginning to push off the coast of

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

22 days

This is actually a pretty good comparison; 2010 was an analog for this year. We are ahead of 2010 in terms of named storms, and they reached 19. Of course, I feel ACE will be a lot higher.

Rush Rush

@rushtropicalwx

22 days

2010 started September with Hurricane Earl the 5th named storm and had 10 storms formed by the end of September. Season ended with 19-12-5 and 165 ACE. I know 2010 is the great hope that "underperformed" but the +NAO of 2024 promises things will be different with OTS tracks.

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

8 days

Call it what you want, terminology is semantical. Im sure we can all agree that this is absolutely dismal levels of support given the calendar date. Lots can change, but as it stands things look rather bleak for potential TCG through mid-month. #TropicalUpdate

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

9 days

The tropical #Atlantic right now is filled with anemic tropical waves. In a conventionally active year, we would be watching all 3 of these features for significant development. However, this year is everything but conventional. While development of some sort remains possible,

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

20 days

CSU and the CPC have both updated their short term projections for #Atlantic cyclone activity this afternoon. CSU expects normal activity to occur over the next 2 weeks (7-22 ACE), and the CPC has gone a bit bold with enhanced (>60%) TC development for week 2, and elevated

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

Our tropical wave of interest appears quite anemic this morning, likely due to its proximity to dry air and subsidence associated with an active CCKW passage. It should be noted that this same CCKW passage will eventually help aid in development later down the road through

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

4 months

@ESCdiscord What in the saw bathroom is this

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

11 days

Cute little feature in the #Gulf this morning Model support is negligible, but the gulf is notorious for quick spin-ups during this time of the year. Regardless, disturbed weather and tropical moisture are on the way for coastal communities for a potentially wet holiday

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

16 days

Typhoon #Shanshan is in that weird phase where it looks appreciable on visible satellite, and fairly messy on IR imagery. Regardless, an Upper-level low that has been plaguing Shanshan is now gradually pushing southwest, allowing for continual outflow expansion and gradual

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

19 days

#Gilma that’s some Rapid eye development 👀 Likely not just a category 1 anymore.

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

📈Well, there you have it! The CPC has outlined an area for potential tropical development in the MDR during the first week of #August . This would align with the aforementioned passage of a favorable MJO phase and the formation of the African Standing Wave. (ASW) The ASW is

Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

With favorable forcing entering the basin by early August, it wouldn’t surprise me if activity begins to increase as we start the month. Even if we continue far into August without any notable activity (looks unlikely at this point) Hyperactive forecasts could still be met.

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

12z ECMWF Ensembles showcase 3 different signals to watch for tropical #development over the next 10 days. NHC currently has one such signal marked, with a 40% chance of formation over the next 7 days. Chances are this map will get much busier in the weeks to come, as the

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

18 days

After FIVE LONG YEARS, #Hone is finally here. the CPHC will designate 01C as a tropical storm at the 5 pm advisory, with an intensity of 40mph and 1005mb #TropicalUpdate #HurricaneSeason

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

22 days

Hurricane #Ernesto has now come off a pronounced secondary peak (Likely the lifetime actual peak!) as the system passes the 26°C isotherm. Waters will only cool from here, and a final weakening trend appears to be underway with continued degradation of its convective pattern.

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

I've noticed some people here talking about the significance of warmer anomalies off the coast of Newfoundland, and how that affects TC formation during the #HurricaneSeason . In my experience, these anomalies are quite complicated but don't directly signify reduced activity.

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

14 days

The break is officially over, with the NHC now marking a 20% chance of development in 7 days for the MDR wave #TropicalUpdate

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

14 days

LIFE UPDATE: I got a puppy! 🤩🥹 What should I name her??

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

23 days

Looking towards the #Pacific , equatorial trade winds are expected to increase in strength during the latter half of the month. This will slightly intensify the cool anomalies across the #ENSO regions, pushing us closer towards La Nina territory. The CPC has already declared a

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

8 days

It appears that our disturbance is struggling this morning (quite on-brand with the #Atlantic as of late), having come off Diurnal Maximum with little convective activity. Model volatility continues to be extreme, which is remarkable for the medium range time-frame. At this

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

20 days

While the #Atlantic remains quiet, it's a vastly different story on the opposite side of the globe! 🌀 Tropical storm #Gilma is bordering on #Hurricane status this evening, with a recent MW pass depicting a developing inner core structure. This in tandem with the system

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

The Eastern #Pacific basin is finally showing some signs of life this evening, with the new formation of Tropical Storm #Bud . In addition to Aletta, the seasonal ACE total is now at a staggering 0.61 units, the lowest value ever recorded YTD. The average ACE for July 24th in the

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

11 days

Overnight guidance has seen a drastic increase in support for both a tropical wave and a disturbance colocated within the ITCZ Vorticity has the potential to "roll-up", detach, and head east, possibly developing in the Caribbean. This tropical wave is one of the healthiest we

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

21 days

Hurricane #Ernesto still looking impressive for being over 22-23C waters. Should fall apart soon once the cool waters overcome the Benefits of jet interaction #TropicalUpdate

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

18 days

You ok HMON? Yikes. #Gilma

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

9 days

Here are 3 other years that had a similar Named storm progression up through this point in the season. While it seems that we have started quiet this year, it does not mean it will end that way. We needn't be so reactive. there remains a lot of time in this season for nefarious

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

It is worth noting that most agencies project a neutral-positive NAO phase for the peak months of #HurricaneSeason . But what does this mean? and what can we expect? 🌀📈 The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), is a climatic phenomenon characterized by atmospheric pressure

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

The northeast #gulf is a full 2 degrees above average! newly formed Tropical Storm #Debby is forecast to track over these waters as a #Hurricane late this weekend, before stalling off the east coast, dumping impressive rain amounts. the National Blend of Models showcases

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

19 days

Just goes to show that we never truly know what will happen in #HurricaneSeason . Posts like these even occurred in the conventionally active 2005 season, before the significant ramp-up through late August Personally, it feels to me like some people are prematurely writing this

Matthew Gross

@HurricaneAddict

19 days

Happy anniversary to one of the most unfortunate posts in the history of the internet!

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

While it seems the start of this year's #HurricaneSeason has been underwhelming in terms of storm frequency; it's important to note that we are actually well ahead of schedule! The current statistics of the 2024 hurricane season are as follows: 3 named systems, 1 hurricane, and

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

25 days

Hurricane #Ernesto has achieved Category 2 status, and will likely be assessed at 100mph come the 11:00 pm advisory. This is the best satellite presentation that Ernesto has displayed so far in its life, having successfully mixed out dry air, and closing off an eye. This looks

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

Sea Surface Temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region continue to cool due to recent strong easterly winds, and have reached their coolest temperatures since the start of the season! This cooling should temporarily stall over the next few days as anomalous westerly winds overspread

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

27 days

Tropical Storm #Ernesto has made great use of diurnal maximum, fostering an increase in convection with a rather stout banding structure. Its ML circulation has become more apparent, and recon has found conclusive evidence of a coherent surface circulation. Recent satellite

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

Invest #92W seems to be on the precipice of TCG this morning, as centralized convection becomes more cohesive, along with banding structures setting up to the systems west. Models show an incredibly favorable environment ahead of 92W, with increasingly divergent flow aloft,

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

As #Beryl finally exits the scene, the Atlantic transitions into a quiet period. Aside from the current 10/10 AOI, no significant tropical cyclone activity is expected over the next few weeks. This is due in part to intraseasonal variability. Despite some claims, lulls in

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

2 months

The stark contrast in tropical activity between the #Atlantic and Eastern #Pacific basins is truly remarkable. While the Atlantic has reached record Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) for this time of year, the Pacific has recorded its lowest values in reliable history. (not even

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

10 days

Believe it or not, the 2023 hurricane season is rapidly approaching 2024 for ACE year to date. This could change depending on the evolution of our area to watch. Still wild that an El Nino year managed to produce as much as it did. #Tropics #HurricaneSeason2024

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

Now that Hurricane #Debby has made landfall, all eyes turn to the inland track and coinciding #Flooding threat. After #Landfall occurred, Debby's forward motions have slowed significantly over the Florida Peninsula, moving at 8mph per the last NHC update. This slow speed,

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

28 days

And as expected, recon has found an increasingly well defined surface circulation within #05L . The convective pattern continues to organize; and The NHC has increased development chances to 100% for the disturbance. it appears that we will be getting Tropical Depression 5 at

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

A #HighRisk of Flash Flooding has now been introduced associated with Tropical Storm #Debby . This is issued for a widespread foot of rain, along with isolated totals surpassing 20-30". This forecast can, and probably will change as we get a better handle on how steering currents

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

12 days

5 years ago today, #Dorian became a category 1 Hurricane just north of Puerto Rico and St. Croix. This marks the beginning of the long intensification phase that would later lead to a catastrophic 160kt landfall on Elbow Cay. Wild to look back on! #HurricaneHistory

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Andrew Austin-Adler

@weatherman_aaa

1 month

Hurricane #Debby appears to be making its best attempt yet at wrapping up a cohesive eyewall. For the better part of its life, complete eyewall formation has been relatively restricted due to enhanced dry air entrainment, and a relatively modest southwesterly shear vector. If

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