Cargill announced that it was spending $225 million to double its soybean crush capacity at Sidney, Ohio with the project expected to be completed by 2022
#Brazil
's decision/recommendation to increase its
#biodiesel
blend rate from 10% to 15% in April 2023 might be a big deal in the world veg oil
#export
market. IF this comes to pass, seems like it would reduce the country's
#soybean
oil exports to virtually zero.
AgRural’s downgrade in its
#Brazilian
#soybean
crop estimate from 133.4 to 128.5 definitely captured the market’s attention. Some 10 ½ MMT below the last USDA number and versus CONAB’s 140 figure
Ukraine Ag Ministry reports 1.3 million hectares of
#corn
has been planted, or about 23% of last year’s total. Total spring crop area is expected to eventually be down about 16% from the 16.7 million seeded in the spring of 2021
As summer comes to a close, we would like to recognize our 2022 Summer Interns. The last 10 weeks have been a success due to their hard work and drive to learn about the industry. We are excited to see what you are able to accomplish in the future!
#Corn
ratings in IA and MN fell be double digits with the former down 20 points year to year and the latter, 26. ND and SD corn ratings at 42% and 45% G/E are 30 and 32 points below the corresponding 2020 weekly numbers
Brazil’s soybean line-up declined 17 to 183 mbu this week and is 27%/67 million smaller than a year ago. Yet, taking crop size & YTD usage at face value, estimated end of July stocks are almost 20% greater This Year (260 mbu)
#soybeans
#brazil
AgroConsult trimmed its estimate of Brazil’s safrinha
#corn
crop to 65.3 MMT, putting the country’s total output at 90.2. That’s 8.3 million below the USDA and 6.2 under CONAB’S last forecast.
#brazil
As you may already know, the Boots on the Ground Tour is back and kicked off yesterday! Tommy is leading the charge out in North Dakota as they take a firsthand look at the heaviest hit drought areas in North Dakota.
@IndianaGrainCo
@NDGrainco
According to AMS,
#soybean
volume on the
#Mississippi
River edged up 800K bu to 14.2 mbu the week of Oct 15 while Gulf rail receipts have surged from an average of 270 cars/wk during Sep to nearly 1500 and 1900 in each of the past 2 weeks. PNW car receipts went from 4300 to 9300.
The USDA’s decision to cut back Brazil’s 20-21 SB exports by 3 MMT/3% appears well founded . . . shipments the 1st 7 days of July are down 10% and June’s 11.1 MMT total was 13% below a year ago . . . China demand easing?
#soybeans
#Brazil
#exports
Yesterday our interns had the opportunity to visit and tour
@WyffelsHybrids
.
Thank you for taking the time to meet with the next generation of agriculture!
Consultant trimmed Argentina soybean estimate 2 MMT over the weekend to 42.0 & also cut the
#corn
crop by 1 to 46.0 mil. Brazil
#soybeans
remain estimated at 151.0 while corn was scaled back ½ mil. to 125.0
This puts Argentina 7 ½ below the USDA and the corn number, 9 mil. less.
While unshipped export sales of old/new-crop U.S.
#corn
to non-China destinations are +15% v. last year, they’re ~33% less of prior short-crop Brazil safrinha years. Expect some fairly steady buying & watch the Ukraine crop.
Some market talk that
#China
is sniffing around for U.S.
#corn
. Unshipped sales are down to 25 million which is equivalent to about 4 weeks worth of inspections. And, with the Brazil program winding down until mid-summer, this would make sense. 🌽🌽🌽
The market is expecting an aggressive
#Brazil
February
#soybean
export program. FOB values this year are 30/50, versus 102/118 LY. U.S. quotes? 64/69 TY; 73/84 LY
Russia is now attacking grain facilities on the Danube River in a further effort to disrupt Ukrainian
#exports
. Volume on the Danube in May alone reached 2.2 MMT, exceeding shipments via the
#BlackSea
Corridor.
#corn
#wheat
US and Mexico officials met yesterday. There was talk
#corn
might not be involved should
#Mexico
decide to retaliate. Perhaps they indirectly did as it was rumored Mexico bought 40‐42 cargos of Brazilian corn for an unknown shipment period.
#Argentina
is said to have exported approximately 2.0 MMT of
#soybeans
to
#China
since the implementation of the Dollar Soja program in early September with another 1.3 MMT destined for China in its current
#export
line-up.
WATCH: Tommy Grisafi,
@IndianaGrainCo
, discusses the current markets, choices
#farmers
have on what to plant, crop insurance numbers, and key market factors
A group of our risk advisors hosted their annual Outlook Meeting for the upcoming '22-23 MY. They are shown here discussing regional storage space and balances heading into next year. A networking event was held after @ the Toledo Mud Hens game. Thank you for all who attended!
Brazil’s Soybean
#exports
fall nearly 50% week to week, to 1.47 MMT or about 1.1 Million below the corresponding year ago period. Soybean Meal exports improved from 303 K LW to 429 K TW, exceeding the 2020 total by nearly 40%.
#soybeans
#Brazil
#Reuters
says not-so-small soybean producer Blairo Maggi has already sold about 60% of his expected 22-23
#soybean
production. That's about twice the average in Mato Grosso with a 1.3 bbu larger crop looming on the horizon.
132,000 MT of
#soybeans
for delivery to
#China
during the 2022/2023 MY
332,000 MT of
#soybeans
for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2022/2023 MY
Tommy sat in on the
@CowGuyClose
today with Angie Aparo and John Rich discussing the re-release of Free Man. Check out the info for the new release and the plan to play again in Nashville!
This morning ATI Director of Research, Dr. Cesar Cruz Jr., helped kick off the Bayer Crop Tour with an outlook presentation for the 2022-2023 marketing year. Thank you for joining us and have a great crop tour!
#Brazil
Vessel numbers indicated a rather significant decline in the
#corn
line-up last week. The total dropped from 111 million bushels to 67 which is 50% below the year ago total. January
#exports
are barely ahead of LY with Feb shipments likely to be 1/3rd less yr to yr.
China cancelled a fair amount of old crop
#corn
purchases yesterday, 4.7 mbu and Unknown, 2.8. While new crop bean sales were ok at 11.5 (trade: 7-15), noted last year, the U.S. had sales of 123 million.
@SteinerConsulting
: Brazil has replaced the EU as the top
#pork
exporter to China. Their share of global trade since 2014 doubled from 9 to 17% while the EU share is unchanged at 34%. Both the U.S. & Canada have lost market share, down 3 and 5% to 35% and 15%, respectively.
The low end of current S AM
#Soybean
crop estimates is around 156.6 for
#Brazil
and 48 for
#Argentina
. The 2-country total is still 21.6 MMT (800 mbu) LARGER than last year. The latest forecast for
#Paraguay
would add an other 30-35 mbu to that total.
Brazil’s
#Soybean
export line-up saw a large gain of over 40 mbu the past few days to 192 million. But, this is 1/3rd less than the 287 total reported last year at this time and continues to suggest the U.S. will enjoy a little longer period of decent export
#demand
.
Increased
#corn
export competition:
#Brazil
exported around 47 mbu of corn last week, vs 20 mbu a year ago. At the same time, Ukraine shipped 19 mbu, against 34 mbu in the year ago week. Still a net gain between the two of about 12 mbu. Note: U.S. inspections were 13 lower vs LY.
Are they sure last year’s
#Brazil
#corn
crop was only 87 MMT? The corn line-up jumped 7 to 20 million last week, considerably more than last year’s 3 mbu total following a 102 million tonne crop
January’s NOPA crush fell nearly 3 mbu short of trade expectations and suggested another month of weak domestic soybean meal consumption.
Most analysts are thinking a 10-15 mbu downward revision in crush is likely, despite new capacity coming on-line in the coming months.
S AM weather is in the forefront but interesting that if CNGOIC’s Jan
#China
SB import forecast of 6.8 MMT is correct, Sep-Jan intake is down a not-so-insignificant 6.7 MMT year-to-year. Or, 15%.
#Brazil
had record March
#Soybean
#exports
of 12.3 MMT (452 mbu). Judging by the current export line-up, which is 21% larger than the corresponding 2022 total, April shipments could easily be 165 mbu larger this year.
It's been fun to watch Tommy on
@OfficialRFDTV
this week as he led the Market Day Report and the
@CowGuyClose
. We are thankful for the opportunity and the great conversations!
Brazil appears to have exported a record large 1.9 MMT of
#corn
last week (74 mbu), bringing the 15-day total to 3.75 MMT and nearly 7 times as much as was shipped the 1st 15 days of July 2018
ANEC sees
#Brazil
exporting between 2 ½ and 3 ½ MMT of
#corn
in December. Partially explains the YTD poor U.S exports to Other Asia/Mid-East as Brazil’s Sep-Dec exports could come in 1 ½ MMT MORE than thought back in Sep
July-Sep Brazil
#corn
exports to Mexico total 860 K with another 400 K set to be loaded in October and November. FWIW, the 5-month total is more than the entire volume shipped the past 7 years--AgriCensus (not good for the U.S.)
The BAGE’s 3 MMT cut to the Argentine
#soybean
crop is going to reduce the stx/use ratio there to a record low 3.6%, require bean imports near 9 MMT mark (a new high), trim crush, or some combination of the 3. Further upside to SBM prices and supportive U.S. bean/meal
#exports
?
Mexico is typically the U.S.’s 2nd best
#Soybean
customer, until LY when U.S. shipments fell 16% to 168 mbu. With Brazil FOB values some $1.75./bu below the Gulf, Mexico’s 75 mbu in non-U.S. imports LY could hit the 100 mbu mark in 23-24.
#exports
Strategie Grains went down 6 to 55MMT on the EU
#corn
crop, which is considerably less than the USDA at 68. It would appear the latter's corn import forecast of 16 million is on the low side & will likely lead to more Brazil corn being imported. Ukraine adds more supply concerns
FOB
#Brazil
spot
#Soybean
values have cratered the past several days to a near-$2 per bushel/$71 per MT discount to the U.S. Gulf. With ocean freight from Brazil to the Gulf somewhere around the $27-$30 per tonne level, seems like the momentum for imports may be on the upswing.
Judging by the USDA’s vessel numbers, Gulf
#Export
demand does not look particularly robust near-term. The latest report had the number
of grain vessels in port at a 13-year low of 32. That’s about one-half of the year ago total and 17 less than the 5-year seasonal average.
Unshipped
#corn
sales are at a 10-year low. Doing some extrapolation with what that has meant for balance-of-the-year shipments in past years would put the final total around 1.6 billion bushels. Or, some 325 million below the January WASDE estimate. Worth watching.
It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas!!!
The first snowfall this season produced the best dressed snowman by the cutest construction workers in Central Illinois!
U.S.
#Soybean
#yields
are still to be determined with a potential range of 48-52 bpa. The latter seems increasing difficult to achieve given weather outlook. The low end takes 331 mbu off the July USDA crop estimate. With no change in use, carry out goes to -31 mbu! Precarious.
ATI PRO MEDIA 9.15.2023 Tommy &
@RRFNWick
talk Markets: Low Price, Low Yield, & High Interest Rates.
A review of markets for the week:
#harvest23
pressure, the drop in the farm
#economy
, and
#volatility
.
IHS Informa took a machete to its estimate of the Argentine bean crop on Friday, slicing off 10 million MT to 40.0 and now 9 less than the last USDA estimate. And, either boosts imports of soybeans by 3 million or so or, takes a like amount off of crush.
USDA RMA Prevent Plant tweet . . . Thomas Worth from same, says given prevent plant claims to RMA so far, using historical reporting rates, project between 15 to 20 million prevent plant acres in 2019
#Chinese
#corn
prices over the past 30 trading days have risen nearly 10%/$.94 per bushel to $10.74. Soybean meal on the other hand, has actually declined about $14.45 per ST/3% to $457
So far Black Sea tensions are having little impact on the region’s
#corn
exports as month-to-date corn shipments from
#Ukraine
are over 1.5 MMT and on pace to hit 4.3 million which would be the largest Feb total on record
#markets
paying more attention to Brazil weather due to the hot/dry situation in Mato Grosso. There is talk of considerable need for replanting
#soybeans
due to a much drier two-week outlook. The state generally accounts for about 30% of the country’s soybean production.
What caught my eye: Pro Farmer Midwest Crop Tour has 3 Iowa district samples up 1.9% versus LY (USDA down 2.6% for the state); IL yields were 11% lower than LY with the USDA estimating a 14% decline state-wide.
Soybean/corn (SX/CZ) ratio at 2.51:1 is the 3rd highest in the past 21 years. Will this generate more of a 50-50 split between corn and bean acres, versus the average 53%/47% during that same time period?
Brazil has record vessel line-ups for
#soybeans
,
#corn
& meal. The U.S. situation is quite different. The Gulf in port figure and recent vessel loadings are near a 12-year low. Expected arrivals jumped 40% from LW but at 30, it’s still 16 fewer than the seasonal average.
•What caught my eye: Interesting Bloomberg story--“less than 4% decline” in Chinese soybean meal production so far this year. YTD crush (since Sep 1) down just 2.4 MMT/3.7%--aquaculture, more poultry and better hog rations more than offsetting ASF?