Institute for Fiscal Studies @TheIFS Twitter profile

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Institute for Fiscal Studies

3 days

NEW PODCAST: How can Rachel Reeves make her first Budget a success? @PJTheEconomist , @HelenMiller_IFS , @StewartWood and @stephenkb discuss challenges facing the Chancellor and how she can learn from previous Budgets. 🎧 Listen to our first live episode:

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Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

2 months

"A terraced house in Blackpool pays significantly more council tax than a £100 million penthouse in the West End. That is bonkers." @PJTheEconomist and @DanNeidle discuss the current 'disaster that is the taxation system for housing'. Listen here:

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@TheIFS

3 years

“What was completely missing was anything for people on Universal Credit or the state pension, which is only going up by 3.1% this month when inflation will be around 8%.” “A big cut in living standards for those on the very lowest incomes.” @PJTheEconomist on #PoliticsLive

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@TheIFS

7 months

NEW: Sure Start, England’s first large programme to provide holistic support to families with children under five, greatly improved disadvantaged children’s GCSE results. Read @nridpathecon @Sarah_Cattan @carneiro_econ ’s report, funded by @NuffieldFound :

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@TheIFS

3 years

NEW: At their peak, Sure Start centres prevented 13,000 hospitalisations a year among 11- to 15-year-olds – leading to savings that offset around a third of its cost. Read our new briefing, funded by @NuffieldFound here. > Thread [1/4]

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Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

1 year

NEW: Removing tax exemptions from private schools would likely raise £1.3–1.5 billion per year, as the fall in private school demand and movement of pupils into the state sector is likely to be small. Read @lukesibieta ’s report, funded by @NuffieldFound :

Tax, private school fees and state school spending | Institute for Fiscal Studies

This report compares private school fees and state school spending. It also examines Labour’s proposals to remove tax exemptions from private schools.

ifs.org.uk

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Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

3 years

Real wages are expected to remain stagnant for 20 years. In 2026, wages are forecast to be £11.70 lower than if the pre-2008 trend in wage growth had continued. #Budget2021

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@TheIFS

2 years

NEW: Average inflation reached 9% in the year to April, but the poorest households faced inflation rates of 10.9%. This is 3 percentage points higher than inflation rates for the richest decile. [THREAD: 1/4]

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Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

4 years

NEW: Scottish Government funding per person is over 30% higher than in England, almost entirely due to its UK government funding. This gap has grown over the last 10 years. Read more in our first Scottish election briefing, funded by @Scotpolicyfund

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@TheIFS

11 months

The 2p cut to National Insurance means £449 less tax paid by an average full-time employee, but this is almost entirely offset by frozen thresholds and other changes since 2021. For others, these freezes will more than cancel out the 2p cut. #AutumnStatement

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Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

3 years

Over the next 5 years real household disposable income is expected to grow by 0.8% per year, well below the historical average. But growth had been weak in the decade before COVID, meaning average incomes are now expected to be 28% (£9,000 per capita) below the pre-2008 trend.

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Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

2 years

Kwarteng's "£45bn package of tax cuts has now become a £43bn package - a rounding error in the context of the public finances." "He still has a lot of work to do if he is to display a credible commitment to fiscal sustainability." Our full statement>

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@TheIFS

5 months

This is not an @TheIFS chart. The lines are incorrect. Our chart is here:

Tax revenue as a share of national income, including proposed tax changes in the 2024 manifestos |...

Both Labour and the Conservatives' plans would see overall tax burden rise to around its all-time high – a level not seen since the 1940s.

ifs.org.uk

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@TheIFS

2 years

NEW: In the absence of official scrutiny from @OBR_UK alongside Friday's announcement, we've provided our own #IFSGreenBudget fiscal forecasts with @citibank . We find that planned tax cuts with stalling economic growth would leave debt on an unsustainable path. THREAD: 1/13

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@TheIFS

5 years

The Liberal Democrats’ plans seem to involve lower levels of borrowing than implied by either the Labour or Conservative manifestos. They would appear to be the only party which would put debt on a decisive downward path, says Carl Emmerson at our #GE2019 manifesto analysis.

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@TheIFS

9 months

Schools serving disadvantaged children have seen larger funding cuts. The most deprived fifth of secondary schools saw spending per pupil fall by 12% in real terms between 2010 and 2021, compared with 5% for the least deprived fifth. Read the report

Schools serving disadvantaged children have faced the biggest funding cuts | Institute for Fiscal...

Our annual education spending report finds that rising costs are placing increasing pressure on all areas of education.

ifs.org.uk

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@TheIFS

3 years

Between 2010 and 2019, total UK spending on education fell by £10bn (8%) in real terms. This includes a 9% real-terms fall in school spending per pupil and a 14% fall in spending per student in colleges. These cuts are without precedent in post-war UK history. [THREAD: 1/7]

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@TheIFS

3 years

NEW: Graduates are in for a rollercoaster ride on student loan interest rates in the coming years. Read our new briefing on what today's @ONS RPI figures mean for student loans, funded by @NuffieldFound >

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@TheIFS

2 years

The vast majority of income tax payers will now be paying more tax as a result of the measures since 2021-22. Cutting the additional rate, however, means those with incomes over £155,000 (just 1.4% of adults) will now pay less tax overall. #MiniBudget

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@TheIFS

5 months

'Did it work in England? The answer is, yes it did.' @PJTheEconomist on how children who had access to Sure Start, especially in the early phase when it was well-resourced and targeted, have had significantly improved educational and health outcomes. 📗

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@TheIFS

2 years

NEW: Inequalities by family background emerge early and persist as children progress through the education system. @ckfarquharson , @Sandra_McNally & Imran Tahir’s findings from our IFS Deaton Review chapter on education inequalities, funded by @NuffieldFound , in a thread: [1/12]

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@TheIFS

5 years

"As a blueprint for five years in government the lack of significant policy action is remarkable." @PJTheEconomist responds to the #ConservativeManifesto . More from IFS researchers to follow! #GE2019

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@TheIFS

2 years

Today’s measures mean that the richest tenth of households, who were set to lose around £3,500 a year (3%) on average by 2025-26 under Johnson and Sunak’s plans, will now gain around £700 a year (1%) on average. #minibudget

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@TheIFS

2 years

📊 #IFSSatStat : The new National Funding Formula has boosted funding for the most deprived fifth of schools the least (by less than 1%) since 2017. This follows bigger cuts for schools in deprived areas during the 2010s, esp. outside London, where educational outcomes are worst.

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@TheIFS

7 years

Real terms per pupil spending on schools would fall under Conservatives but increase under Labour, #GE2017

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@TheIFS

6 years

Pre-referendum plans were for a £10bn surplus next year. But now we’re forecast to have a £30bn deficit #Budget2018

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@TheIFS

7 years

Changes to free school meal entitlement as a result of the introduction of universal credit will mean that, overall, around an extra 50,000 children will be entitled to free school meals @ESRC @ChildrensComm

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@TheIFS

2 years

"Let's be clear – prices aren't going down. They're just expected to go up more slowly." "Over this two-year period, households can expect to be substantially less well-off than they were on average at the beginning of it." @PJTheEconomist on the #Budget2023 on #PoliticsLive .

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@TheIFS

5 years

IFS is launching a major new study of #inequality today, funded by @NuffieldFound and chaired by Nobel Laureate Prof Sir Angus Deaton. Read about it here:

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@TheIFS

4 years

"You cannot fairly assign grades to a cohort of students who have not done the exams. Many were bound to be left angry and upset. They did not, however, have to be left baffled." #ALevels "didn’t need to be this much of a mess", writes @PJTheEconomist .

Method used to assign A-level grades favoured public schools

I spent Saturday morning on the phone to Maureen Cobbett. She was angry, upset and baffled. Maureen is headteacher at The Latymer School, a state grammar school in north London, where one of my sons...

www.thetimes.com

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@TheIFS

11 days

Our Director @PJTheEconomist has announced he is stepping down in Summer 2025, to move to @QueensCollegeOx . The IFS would like to express its huge gratitude to Paul for his outstanding leadership as Director over the past 14 years. Read more here:

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@TheIFS

4 years

Mothers’ work patterns have diverged from fathers’ in #lockdown . 1⃣ They're more likely to have lost their job, or to have been furloughed 2⃣ Their working hours have fallen more, proportionally 3⃣ Their work time is interrupted more often by childcare

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@TheIFS

5 months

"The proposal to “triple lock” the income tax allowance for pensioners is another example of Conservatives proposing to undo their own tax policies." We respond to the @Conservatives ' announcement. Read here:

A new triple-locked personal allowance for pensioners? | Institute for Fiscal Studies

Reintroducing a higher pensioner personal allowance would be another example of the Conservatives reversing a recent Conservative Chancellor’s policy.

ifs.org.uk

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@TheIFS

7 months

NEW: Doctors and experienced teachers have faced unprecedented pay cuts since 2007. The gap between higher- and lower-paid public sector workers has fallen by more than a third since 2007. Read @JCribbEcon and @LaurenceOBrien_ 's Election 2024 report:

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@TheIFS

2 years

Today's measures undo much of the big, progressive tax rises introduced by Johnson and Sunak. The result is that the richest 10% of households gain the most – now only those earning over £155,000 a year will pay less tax overall. @xiaoweixu_ #minibudget

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@TheIFS

5 years

The prime minister’s proposed #tax cuts would cost billions, with most of the giveaway going to those on high incomes. New analysis by IFS researchers, funded by @NuffieldFound :

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@TheIFS

2 years

The vast majority of income tax payers will now be paying more tax as a result of the measures since 2021-22. However, cutting the additional rate means those with incomes over £155k will now pay less tax overall. @TomWatersEcon #MiniBudget

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@TheIFS

5 years

#IFSSatStat Labour pledges to open a Sure Start centre in every community. We find that Sure Start has big benefits for health. An extra centre per 1000 children aged 0-4 prevents around 5,500 hospitalisations of 11-year-olds a year. Read more:

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@TheIFS

1 month

📰 It’s time to be honest about the funding of social care The fury about ending the winter fuel allowance is a diversion from a much more important issue, @PJTheEconomist in @thetimes today.

It’s time to be honest about the funding of social care

The fury about ending the winter fuel allowance is a diversion from a much important issue

www.thetimes.com

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@TheIFS

7 months

NEW: Access to Sure Start greatly improved disadvantaged children’s GCSE results, by as much as three GCSE grades. THREAD on @nridpathecon , @Sarah_Cattan and @carneiro_econ ’s new report, funded by @NuffieldFound , on Sure Start’s impact on educational outcomes: [1/10]

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@TheIFS

5 years

New IFS report finds #SureStart significantly reduced hospitalisations in children in poorer areas. Gabriella Conti (UCL & IFS) says “Access to Sure Start can help close around half the gap in hospitalisations between rich & poor areas” @NuffieldFound

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@TheIFS

2 years

A parent with a 1 year-old and a 2-year old in England, paying an hourly rate for 40 hours a week for childcare, could see their disposable income fall by £14.5k if their pre-tax pay crosses £100k. A parent in this situation on £130k would be worse off than one earning £99.9k.

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@TheIFS

3 years

NEW REPORT: In their 30s, children with parents in the wealthiest fifth of their generation had average net wealth six times greater than those with parents in the poorest fifth. Read our @ESRC funded report on wealth inequality > THREAD [1/6]

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@TheIFS

3 years

UPDATE: Our updated analysis finds that the earnings hit for lower-earning student loan borrowers under the new student loans system presented last week is set to be even higher than we previously said. Here we explain why: [1/8]

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@TheIFS

3 months

📰 There are good reasons to reverse the two-child limit The benefit cap has been pretty much laser-focused on increasing the measured rate of child poverty. @PJTheEconomist in @thetimes today

There are good reasons to reverse the two-child limit

The benefit cap has been pretty much laser-focused on increasing the measured rate of child poverty

www.thetimes.com

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@TheIFS

3 years

'For the chancellor to have felt it appropriate to draw attention to the fact that per pupil spending in schools will have returned to 2010 levels by 2024 is perhaps a statement of a remarkable lack of priority afforded to the education system since 2010.'

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@TheIFS

5 months

Most investment comes from businesses, and this was rebounding until a sharp shift around the time of the Brexit vote. Since then, business investment in the UK has stagnated, with possible negative consequences for growth. [8/13]

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@TheIFS

4 months

Our response to @reformparty_uk ’s manifesto is out. Read it in full here:

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@TheIFS

2 years

NEW: For every £1 given to households through the high-profile cuts to taxes, £2 is being taken away in the stealthy freezes to tax and benefit thresholds. Read @TomWatersEcon and Tom Wernham’s @NuffieldFound -funded #IFSGreenBudget chapter> THREAD: [1/8]

Reforms, roll-outs and freezes in the tax and benefit system | Institute for Fiscal Studies

We show the impact of freezes and gradual roll-outs on personal taxes and benefits, as well as considering planned changes to the tax system.

ifs.org.uk

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@TheIFS

2 years

NEW: School spending per pupil in 2024 will be 3% below 2010 levels in real terms, once you account for unexpectedly high cost pressures facing schools. Read @lukesibieta ’s briefing on school spending and the coming cost crunch, funded by @NuffieldFound >

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@TheIFS

4 years

Temporary COVID-19 cash is being used to fund permanent new spending on free bus travel, school meals, grants to councils, mental health, and maybe some of the NHS pay rises. Paying for these from core funding in future means a bigger squeeze elsewhere.

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@TheIFS

6 months

NEW: This parliament will see UK health spending grow by 2.4% a year in real terms: two-thirds of the historic average. Spending in England has grown more slowly than plans implied at the last election. THREAD on George Stoye @MaxWarnerIFS @BenZaranko 's election briefing: [1/7]

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@TheIFS

4 years

'No money to deal with post pandemic priorities. No policies to deal with the inequalities that have opened up over the last year between rich & poor, old & young, more and less well educated. This is a big hole in the chancellor’s and the government’s policies.' @PJTheEconomist

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@TheIFS

3 years

Sure Start had long-term benefits for children’s health, lasting almost a decade after children have ‘aged out’ of eligibility. Benefits for child health likely come from stronger immune systems, safer home environments and improved emotional & behavioural development. [3/4]

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@TheIFS

6 months

NEW TOOL: Think you've got what it takes to be the Chancellor? Try our brand new interactive tool, created by @TheIFS researchers in partnership with @nesta_uk . Be the Chancellor and share your results >

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@TheIFS

3 years

The effects of inflation are not felt evenly across households. The poorest households spend much more as a proportion of their budget on household energy. This means the inflation rate they face could exceed 10%.

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@TheIFS

2 years

“Mr Kwarteng is not just gambling on a new strategy, he is betting the house.”– @PJTheEconomist Read our IFS response to today’s #miniBudget here with detail on the impact on public finances, the distributional impact of tax cuts, public spending & more>

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@TheIFS

5 months

“This is a manifesto that promises a dizzying number of reviews and strategies… but delivering genuine change will almost certainly also require putting actual resources on the table.” - @PJTheEconomist Read our initial response to @UKLabour ’s manifesto:

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@TheIFS

5 years

#SureStart had the biggest health impact in the poorest neighbourhoods. Greater access to Sure Start can help close around half the gap in hospitalisations between rich and poor areas.

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@TheIFS

5 months

Despite proposing significant tax cuts, today's Conservative manifesto would – if implemented – still leave the forecast for tax revenue as a share of national income at its highest level since the 1940s.

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@TheIFS

1 year

NEW: How much revenue would be raised from removing tax exemptions from UK private schools? Our new report by @lukesibieta , funded by @NuffieldFound , calculates the net gain to the public finances from @UKLabour ’s proposed policy: [THREAD: 1/11]

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@TheIFS

11 months

@PJTheEconomist “How did Mr Hunt afford tax cuts when real economic forecasts got no better? He banked additional revenue from higher inflation, and pencilled in harsher cuts to public spending.”

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@TheIFS

3 years

These results highlight the importance of integrating a range of services during the early years to improve child health in both the immediate and longer term. Read the full briefing note here [4/4] >

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@TheIFS

15 days

"In the 40s and 50s there was no capital gains tax. So if you were very wealthy, you didn't pay 98% tax on your income: you converted it to capital and paid nothing." @DanNeidle on the history of the capital gains tax. 🎧 Listen to our podcast here:

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@TheIFS

7 years

Official numbers/forecasts adopted by govt suggest net fiscal loss from Brexit – not a gain of £350m p/w. IFS Carl Emmerson in @thetimes

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@TheIFS

3 years

NEW: Pay freeze will mean 8% drop in salaries of experienced teachers since 2007 and 4-5% for less experienced teachers. Read our full briefing written by @lukesibieta and Jonathan Cribb, funded by @NuffieldFound >

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@TheIFS

2 years

The expansion of free childcare entitlements is to exacerbate one of the largest distortions you are likely to see in a tax and benefit system, meaning some parents could be worse off overall even after a pay rise of tens of thousands of pounds. #Budget2023 THREAD:

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@TheIFS

5 months

“Giveaways are paid for by uncertain, unspecific and apparently victimless savings. Forgive a degree of scepticism.” - @PJTheEconomist Our initial response to the @Conservatives ' manifesto is out. Read in full here:

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@TheIFS

11 months

Despite the reductions to tax announced in today’s #AutumnStatement , total tax revenue as a share of GDP remains on track to reach its highest level since the 1940s.

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@TheIFS

3 years

Workers born in the 1980s with median earnings now don’t earn any more than those born in the 1960s did at their age. We still don’t have the policy tools to boost the earnings of any other than the low-paid. [7/8]

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@TheIFS

2 years

NEW: Wealth has grown rapidly compared to income, disadvantaging younger generations and threatening social mobility. Our key findings from our IFS Deaton Review chapter on trends in income and wealth inequalities, funded by @NuffieldFound , in a thread [1/12]:

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@TheIFS

3 years

NEW: The gap between private and state school spending per pupil in England has more than doubled in the past decade. @lukesibieta on the growing gap between private and state school spending per pupil, funded by @NuffieldFound .

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@TheIFS

6 years

Since 2015, personal tax and benefit reforms have hit the poorest the hardest. Yesterday’s #Budget2018 did not change this much

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@TheIFS

5 years

The highest-earning graduates would benefit most from Labour’s policy of scrapping fees and bringing back maintenance grants. Loan repayments for the top third would fall by around £50k. Actual loan repayments for low-earning graduates would be almost completely unaffected.

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@TheIFS

3 years

Deprived schools have seen larger cuts over the last decade. The most deprived fifth of secondary schools saw a 14% real-terms fall in spending per pupil between 2009 and 2019, compared with a 9% drop for the least deprived schools. [3/7]

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@TheIFS

5 years

The IFS turns fifty today. We’d like to thank our staff and supporters over the years. Special thanks to the @ESRC and our narrators @MyStephanomics and @EvanHD . Find out more and celebrate with us: #IFSat50

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@TheIFS

6 years

The government plans to announce £20bn extra funding for the #NHS today. This means higher borrowing or higher taxes - as @PJTheEconomist tells the BBC, there is no Brexit dividend

BBC - Sunday Politics across the UK

Sunday Politics across the UK

www.bbc.co.uk

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@TheIFS

2 years

High electricity prices mean that many renewable generators are now actually paying money *back* to suppliers. This means that in 3 months from October, the net effect of green and social levies on bills is likely to be just £11 for a typical household. [6/7]

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@TheIFS

4 years

The SNP’s manifesto contains significant pledges that offer big gains to a number of targeted groups in Scotland - but would involve difficult trade-offs in a tight budgetary environment. Read the full response from IFS researchers:

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@TheIFS

7 years

Distributional impact of personal tax and benefit changes to come: the parties compared, #GE2017

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@TheIFS

1 year

NEW: It may be harder now than at any point in over half a century to move up the distribution if you are born in a position of disadvantage. THREAD on our IFS Deaton Review of Inequalities commentary on social mobility in the UK, funded @NuffieldFound : [1/9]

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@TheIFS

6 years

We're aiming to answer fundamental questions about the nature of #inequality in the 21st century, the forces shaping it, and what can and should be done about it. In May, we'll launch a 5-year review led by Sir Angus Deaton and funded by @NuffieldFound :

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@TheIFS

8 months

"It's ludicrous that we should be thinking about whether we will or won't cut taxes [...] off the back of some very uncertain forecasts about what might or might not be happening five years hence." 📺 @PJTheEconomist on the gaming of fiscal rules:

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@TheIFS

5 months

NEW: Families with children have been hit the hardest by tax and benefit changes since 2010. Read @TomWatersEcon and Tom Wernham’s #GeneralElection report on the distributional impact of tax and benefit reforms since 2010, funded by @finan_fairness :

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@TheIFS

1 year

Housing benefits have been frozen since April 2020, while rents have sky-rocketed. What does this mean for low-income households in Britain? THREAD on our new @JRF_uk -funded report on housing quality and affordability by @TomWatersEcon and Tom Wernham: 1/9

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@TheIFS

5 months

Both main parties are "avoiding the reality that they are effectively signed up to sharp spending cuts, while arguing over smaller changes to taxes and spending." Read our election briefing, funded by @NuffieldFound and @finan_fairness , here: [7/7]

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@TheIFS

5 months

Reform UK propose large permanent personal tax cuts could be paid for by reducing the interest paid on Bank reserves. It is a complex area but is unlikely to raise even half the £40bn annually that has been suggested, and only in the short term. @PJTheEconomist 's response ⬇️

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@TheIFS

2 years

NEW: In 2019–20, 1.5 million children of lone parents were in relative income poverty. This is 49% of children in lone parent families, and is almost double the rate for two-parent families in relative poverty. Read our observation funded by @jrf_uk >

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@TheIFS

6 years

Average house prices in England have risen 173% since 1997 after adjusting for inflation. But young adults’ real incomes have only risen by 19%. In that time, homeownership amongst 25- to 34-year-olds has fallen from 55% to 35%. Read more:

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@TheIFS

1 year

More than one in five girls aged 16 were in contact with NHS mental health services (including learning disabilities and autism services) in 2021-22. This is double the rate of the rate just four years earlier. [6/7]

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@TheIFS

7 years

Many advanced economies have a greater tax burden than the UK #ge2017

10

167

105

Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

2 months

NEW: Cheaper grocery products rose in price much faster than expensive products between 2021 and 2023. This ‘cheapflation’ meant poorer households were hit much harder by inflation than official figures show. THREAD on @Tao_Chenn @levell_peter & Martin O'Connell’s paper: [1/8]

5

97

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Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

3 months

"We knew a lot about how difficult the world was going to be, I think we've learnt some more." Watch @PJTheEconomist respond to @RachelReevesMP 's spending audit in 90 seconds ⬇

2

63

104

Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

2 years

Today’s statement from @KwasiKwarteng represents the biggest tax cut of any budget since 1972. “It’s half a century since we’ve seen tax cuts announced on this scale.” – @PJTheEconomist #MiniBudget

14

86

105

Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

2 months

📰 Think you know all about house prices and pay inequality? Think again. Perceptions take a while to catch up with reality and that presents a challenge for the new government - @PJTheEconomist in @thetimes today

Think you know all about house prices and pay inequality? Think again

Perceptions take a while to catch up with reality and that presents a challenge for the new government

www.thetimes.com

19

40

108

Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

11 months

NEW: Schools serving disadvantaged children have faced the biggest funding cuts. Our annual education spending report, funded by @NuffieldFound and with a special focus on geographical differences in spending, launches today. Read the report ⬇️

Annual report on education spending in England: 2023 | Institute for Fiscal Studies

Our sixth annual report on education spending shows changes over time across different stages of education, as well as geographic differences.

ifs.org.uk

4

113

105

Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

5 months

NEW: The past 15 years have been worst for income growth in generations. Here are seven key facts about UK living standards, from our new #GeneralElection report funded by @finan_fairness : [THREAD: 1/9]

2

71

101

Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

5 months

Average teacher pay is 6% lower in real terms than in 2010, and about the same level in real terms as in 2001. Meanwhile, earnings across the economy are 6% higher than in 2010. This may help explain some of the teacher recruitment and retention problems. [6/8]

5

77

100

Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

1 year

📊 We have built a new free online tool that allows you to examine how much funding each area in England received for key public services and how that compares to estimated spending needs.

4

38

98

Institute for Fiscal Studies

@TheIFS

11 months

Even after today’s #AutumnStatement , tax is still set to rise by more in this parliament than any other in recent history.

6

63

94