These two images of laying snow and rainfall for the UK from
@undertheraedar
are fascinating! Living in one of the driest places in the UK puts things into perspective.
This time 9 years ago saw the start of a memorable late Nov-Dec spell of cold weather. High pressure over Russia pushed into Scandinavia through mid November then a huge Greenland high developed. Often see comparisons but looking back reminds you how unique it was.
Plenty of solutions on the table for the Christmas period, a few of the models have a cold easterly. Expect wintry charts to appear over the coming days but lots to be resolved before any certainly can be placed. It’s great to at least see the potential for cold over Christmas.
Comparisons with 2010 are all to often banded around but my word the GFS 6z has a good go. The similarities are clear to see, not suggesting this will happen but amazing model watching at present.
A huge THANK YOU to EVERYONE who showed they cared for
#Nature
. Without your voices, we wouldn't have been able to reach the right resolution for
#BactonCliff
#SandMartins
. More info here: . It's time for us to
#LetNatureSing
Seen several tweets with things like “no winds here” and “seems to have missed us”. Strong winds tonight for Scotland but the severe winds are tomorrow. Been so well covered. 💁♂️
GFS is just teasing us now at the end of the run! In deepest FI so pinch of salt and all that but the best chart I’ve seen this winter from the GFS op.
Spotted a funnel cloud a short while ago in south Essex was likely over the estuary. Was starting to disparate as I was able to pull over and get some shots.
@TorroUK
@danholley_
Not to be taken at face value but to give an idea of snow distribution upto midday Sunday. Euro4 matches up well with the Met Office warning. Try not to get to drawn in to mesoscale details or screams of downgrades on one model run or upgrades on another.
WINTER FORECAST ON TWITTER
Calls of blizzards when GFS shows snow at 384hrs ✅
An SSW is showing up in long range all winter ✅
Northern blocking looking likely ✅
Request to retweet to “let people know” (not for own self gain of more followers) ✅
Toys being thrown ✅
👌🏻😜
Final peak gusts for the day - not to often you see 70mph+ so widely from the south coast of England up to Scotland in the same day. Several sites recorded 80mph+ with a few over 90mph. Many trees bought down, structural damage, power cuts and flooding across the country.
After 3 days of snow showers ECM disrupts the low to the south maintaining the cold air and further snow into next weekend. Another incredible set of 12z’s on the verge of something memorable.
GFS wants to skip spring and go straight for summer! All a long way off of course but does highlight what I mentioned yesterday about more spring like weather finally by the end of 2nd week of April.
⚠️ Warning ⚠️
The silly season is almost upon us, be aware of tweets with links to coldest winter on record & long range GFS op charts showing a cool breeze. Even worse you could see a CFS chart at 3000hrs 🙈
Plenty of bleary eyed people off to work this morning after the overnight storms was the most active night for some time. Just wish it was at 9pm 😵💫😴. A muggy warm day with some sunny spells, risk of a few heavy thundery shower this afternoon for Essex, Suffolk & south Norfolk.
Looking through the Hi res models for the region general theme still remains the same by the end of tomorrow. 3-8cmm widely, across eastern parts 10-15cm Suffolk, Essex and Kent. Localised 15-20cm over east Suffolk & Kent. Small chance of 25-30cm over north Kent downs.
The big 3 at 144hrs, a continuation of colder weather next week almost certain now. Details to be resolved, plenty of variation in how cold and any associated snow risk. Despite T850’s of -6 to -8°c the ECM would be very cold with those low thickness values & slack surface flow.
Good morning, quick look at the hi res Euro4 and it’s picking up the snow for midnight Saturday and 6am Sunday. Area of persistent snow across much of the region heavy showers further north. Will have look in more detail a little later. ❄️❄️
Potential for another blast of cold air in around 10 days, as with this cool spell no point taking any notice of snow charts in advance. Not looking substantial and at this range just one to watch for now.
⚠️Yellow Warning for Snow has been issued ⚠️
#Snow
is expected across parts of the Midlands and eastern England, mainly, but not exclusively over higher ground
More info here 👉
Stay
#WeatherAware
A reminder we do get a brief taste of that heat across Europe on Saturday with exceptional upper air. As mentioned earlier can probably add a couple of °c on this with highs 28-30°c. Could see 32°c for parts of London usual sites of Heathrow and Northolt ones to watch.
A deep freeze just across the water in the near continent again brushes the UK next week on the ECM 12z. Highlights the small margins of getting cold weather to the UK.
First properly cold run of the season on the GFS, with a ridge into southern Greenland. The OP is somewhat of an outlier albeit the control run has a similar evolution. Unlikely at this stage but certainly a trend in the ensembles for some cooler weather in the final 3rd of Nov.
Euro4 certainly picking up on the potential for snow on Saturday morning before turning to rain with some temporary accumulations. Still very uncertain but the risk is still very much there.
Fingers crossed 🤞 GFS has the rest of August nailed! An improvement next week with drier and sunnier weather. Still uncertainties for the bank holiday weekend but tonight’s GFS 12z op has a very warm summery weekend!!
#preyforGFS
🤣
Some more snapshots from the latest Euro4 12z for accumulations. 12:00 & 6pm tomorrow and Monday. Large parts of the country should have a covering by Monday.
Still lots of variation in the placement of the low Tuesday night (The small low over northern France) but most still bring the risk of snow Tuesday night. With the chance of disruptive snow for parts of central, southern and southeast areas. Here’s the ‘big 3’.
Here we go again just when the UKMO agrees, ECM sticks to the 12z idea of killing the high over Scandinavia and bringing milder westerly weather. GFS still cold pretty much the entire run with snow.
GFS op 6z produces something exciting for snow fans. Really need to start seeing more cold runs to see a trend beyond mid month now short lived northerlies on recent runs don’t produce for the majority.
About as much consistency as we’ve seen recently between the 6z and 12z GFS. Would be more than happy with that run. Just need to get it into the reliable....
Compare what has been toyed with at day 10 on the ECM (yes always 10 days away...) to what we had on this day 10 years ago. That’s a Greenland high and it certainly went on to deliver a memorable cold spell!
Updated Met office graphic far better shows how snow becomes more showery tomorrow afternoon. Still near constant right through to Monday morning and showers will continue to feed in on Monday.
Just catching up with the 12z’s. This is just for fun at day 10 but that’s the first run to really peak my interest for this location. Some property cold air advected west on the ECM Op with heights building over Scandi. Would likely have gone on to some true eye candy day 12.
I honestly think these uppers will get downgraded.... they certainly can’t get any hotter! Reasonable agreement now for 20°c uppers, ECM actually extends the heat with 24°c uppers on Friday!!! Temps would be close to 35°c in places🔥🔥🥵
The 12z ops so far with regard to the trend to push the area of low a little further SE upto 120hrs. Anything beyond is highly likely to change.
ICON ✅ very good
ARPEGE ✅ good
UKMO ✅ very good
GFS ❌ low further north
GEM ✅ good
Await the ECM
Seeing reports of 100-130mm of rain falling in the worst affected areas of north Kent last night unfortunately no official stations under the convergence line. The focus of the rain switches north today with 40-50mm failing in the marked area on top of yesterday’s rain.
Fax chart highlights a convergence zone through the estuary tomorrow that could indicate a streamer feature but not sure how potent any showers will be.