Ted Cross @tedcross Twitter profile

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@dantiv2

Ted Cross

@tedcross

11 months

For every 10 likes this post gets I'll ask ChatGPT to make this oil well in the Permian more productive

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

1 year

I hate to break it to you, but we've run out of pandemic-era DUCs. In fact, they've been gone for a while. After lockdowns and the OPEC-Russia price war devastated activity, a big tailwind to help production rebound was the number of wells operators had in their portfolio

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

2 years

Is oil and gas heavily subsidized? Over the past year, I have encountered a narrative that governments are propping up fossil fuels. As a geologist who has worked international oil & gas over the years, I know that the reality is quite different. Like, trillions different:

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

11 months

With yesterday's stunning election of Milei in Argentina, it's worth taking a fresh look at the Vaca Muerta. After years of innovation, recent wells are outperforming the Permian and Bakken by a stunning 33%. While political and economic factors have overshadowed well

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

7 months

I post this like once a month but... still staggers me to see how much Lower 48 production comes from recent wells.

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

1 year

Permian productivity has been a hot topic since well performance dropped last year. That trend looks to be continuing into 2023. We don't yet have a ton of data on well history (after you factor in reporting delays), but so far, it looks like performance has continued to fall.

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

4 months

How much inventory is left in the Permian? In the Midland Basin, we come up with nearly 25,000 locations left -- but the economically viable locations drop dramatically with price. Let's dig in. For our latest study update, we used a data-driven approach to fill in undrilled

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

10 months

In case anyone is wondering what to get me for Christmas

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

1 year

This AI art is getting really good. DALL-e3 with prompt: “a Permian basin pumpjack painting in the style of Vincent Van Gogh”

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

1 year

The Permian Basin saw a huge increase in well performance from 2013 through 2021. But since then average production has been falling. What's caused this? We used our machine learning models to analyze how well production drivers in the Midland Subbasin have changed over the last

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

5 months

Just how much have oil and gas operators been drilling? While the rig count gets most of the attention, lateral miles drilled is more directly related to production. Viewed this way, operators have been very active over the last few years! In April 2023, Lower 48 operators put

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

1 year

Pretty disappointing infographic in the recent New York Times "Monster frack" piece. They show fracking happening at the same level as the aquifer, when in reality, it's 8-12,000 feet deeper. Fixed it for them! I am all in favor of protecting groundwater resources for farmers,

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@tedcross

5 months

We are now beginning to get some longer-term data from the emerging Western Haynesville gas play, and the results are stunning. Most wells are on track to produce 10 billion cubic feet of gas in their first 18 months, a truly remarkable volume. The play has received a lot of

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

6 months

36 Wells Per Section in the Permian? No, you haven't traveled back in time to 2018. By adding new target zones, operators in the Delaware core have brought back the cube. This is an overlooked part of the Permian inventory story! Concho's Dominator made the front page of the

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

9 months

What’s going on with well performance in the Permian? With more and more data rolling in for 2023, we’re able to paint a better picture of how the performance trends have continued since the significant drop in 2022. For this analysis, I’m comparing per-well production for

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

5 months

Oil production in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta play has breached 300,000 barrels a day, following 5 years of breakneck growth. After November’s election of Javier Milei ushered in a more business-friendly national government, many are wondering how high production can rise. On well

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

8 months

The "Red Queen Effect" is a concept related in Alice in Wonderland: "It takes all the running you can do, to keep in the same place.*" The metaphor has been applied to shale to describe the need to continuously drill to maintain production, a natural consequence of shale wells'

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

10 months

Out in the brushlands of west Texas and New Mexico sits an oil field that produces more oil than Iraq, Iran, or Canada: the Permian Basin. This remarkable fact is, somehow, not widely known. Living in Austin--not exactly an oil town--I bring this up whenever I can. After picking

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

7 months

Production in the Permian Basin has continued to grow in part because the are so many different benches to target. Since 2020, so-called "Secondary Targets" have added more production in the Midland than the main zones. Let's dig in. Historically, operators in the Midland Basin

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

8 months

Who's drilling the best unconventional wells in Lower 48? Time for an operator ranking! Here we're showing the top 25 best performing operators, based on average well performance since 2019. Lots of interesting details on here, let's dive in 👇 First, a little table-setting.

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

1 month

Who drilled the best wells in Lower 48 last year? At this point, we have enough data across all basins to make a ranking! In 2023, the private operator Kaiser Francis crushed it, with their 19 wells in the Permian making an average of 305k barrels in their first 12 months.

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@tedcross

2 years

Just how important is ongoing activity to Lower 48 production? If we stopped drilling today, we'd lose 3.6M barrels/day within a year. This would be a 43% drop, though it would be lower for gas 🔽

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

10 months

US oil production from unconventional wells is now above pre-pandemic highs. Which companies have driven the growth? Private companies, publicly-traded "independents", and the majors have taken very different trajectories in the shale world over the last few years. Here, I'm

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

4 months

Over 70% of newly drilled wells across the Lower 48 are now "child" wells, situated near preexisting "parent" wells. This presents a significant challenge for maintaining well performance, as parent production continues to deplete the reservoir. Some key observations: 1. Basin

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

8 months

For years, the NBA player Kevin Durant has been famous for scoring at a high volume WITH high accuracy. When I shared our operator oil productivity chart last week, many people brought this up – it’s not just per-well performance, it’s well count. Sow how do Lower 48 operators

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

3 months

2024 unconventional wells are on track to be the best cohort drilled ever, a major reason US oil production has been holding up surprisingly well in this year. Longer laterals, high-grading, and well designs all are playing a role. Let's dig in. First, let's look at the

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

2 months

In 2023, operators in the Permian delivered a record number of wells, bringing over 6,000 wells online in a single basin in a single year for the first time in the history of shale. This comes despite the average well getting longer and number of active rigs falling. The

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

6 months

The Permian Basin has entered a new phase, where zone diversification and cube development is the driving innovation. A quick look target formations over time shows just how much things have changed. Back in 2018, operators drilled over 40% of their wells in the Wolfcamp A, plus

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

11 months

Geologist, reservoir engineer, landman, driller

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

3 months

Now that we are mid-year, we have enough data to see how different oil basins in Lower 48 are performing in our current phase of consolidation and play maturation. So far, the Bakken is having a strong 2024! In the top chart, I am plotting total production colored by the year

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

5 months

US gas production during the most recent cycle has hit all-time highs despite limited growth in Appalachia. Increased gas production from oil plays has been one major driver, but it's not just the Permian! The Williston, Eagle Ford, and DJ have recently set gas production

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

2 months

There are cathedrals everywhere for those with the eyes to see

James Lucas

@JamesLucasIT

2 months

Why did humans stop building wonders?

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@tedcross

6 years

I was obsessed with Knausgaard’s My Struggle series so I did what any crazed geologist would do: I made a map.

A Complete Visual Map of Karl Ove Knausgaard’s ‘My Struggle’

For each book of My Struggle, I charted the narrative through Knausgaard’s life, capturing the pages spent at each age and jumps from one year to another.

themillions.com

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

4 months

AI art for oil and gas, Part 3: ChatGPT 4o!! Every time we get a new image AI, I like to run a series of "Oil and Gas AI Art" prompts through it to see how it performs, and 4o is OpenAI's best one yet. Prompt: "Create a van gogh-style impressionistic oil painting of a pumpjack

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

2 years

Some concerning numbers coming out of the Midland Basin in 2022. Despite continued increases in lateral length, well productivity fell more than 5%, while 6-month cum oil fell below the 9 bbl/ft level, the first time since 2015. Will have to see if this holds with more time.

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

9 months

The most important gas basin in the Lower 48 is…. the Permian? With offtake constraining output in Appalachia, the Permian and the Haynesville have been the gas growth engines since COVID, combined now responsible for over 35 bcf/d of gas production from horizontals – more

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

1 month

What defines a "Drilled but UnCompleted" aka "DUC" well? Operators sometimes drill a well but don't complete it until some time later, usually to avoid low prices and enable future capital-efficient growth. This is the simple model, but reality is a lot more complex. Let's

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

9 months

Over the past decade, the number of jobs in the Texas oil and gas industry has collapsed at the same time that production has soared. Let’s look at the numbers. Back in November of 2014, there were over 300,000 jobs and production of 7.4 million barrels of oil equivalent per

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

9 months

"Uinta wells perform as strong as the Permian"

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@tedcross

5 months

Gas drilling in the US Lower 48 has dropped to a level not seen since before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while oil drilling is holding steady. What does this mean for gas dynamics and supply? The Lower 48 horizontal gas rig count has dropped below the symbolically

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@tedcross

7 months

Pretty incredible to see just how many wells we have drilled in this corner of the world. That is a LOT of capital / effort / exploration

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@tedcross

11 months

Lots of attention on the September EIA production numbers -- one standout is North Dakota, which has just set a fresh post-COVID high. This is a really interesting case study on unconventionals later in life. Let's dive in.

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

6 months

Reservoir engineer, drilling engineer, geologist

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@tedcross

9 months

Diving a little deeper into Lea County production numbers... the whole distribution is falling, not just the top. It also holds true for both primary and secondary targets

Ted Cross

@tedcross

9 months

What’s going on with well performance in the Permian? With more and more data rolling in for 2023, we’re able to paint a better picture of how the performance trends have continued since the significant drop in 2022. For this analysis, I’m comparing per-well production for

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

7 months

Delaware operators psyching themselves up every morning

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@tedcross

10 months

Return of the Rockies? Wyoming's Powder River Basin has just set a fresh high for oil production from horizontals, breaking 167k bbl/d, in large part thanks to a single private operator, Anschutz Exploration. The Powder River has long been the exciting "new basin", with stacked

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

18 days

Austin-Midland direct flight was full Just added 100k to our Permian 2025 forecast

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@tedcross

11 months

Yesterday a magnitude 5.2 earthquake struck Reeves County in the southwestern Delaware Basin. While any earthquake of this size is concerning, this one raises the specter of a major SWD shut-in in the region. How might this effect oil production? Permian wells produce ~3-4

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

11 months

Productivity declines in the US unconventional oil plays have been big news over the past two years. But looking at the data, one basin bucks the trend: the Denver-Julesburg, home to the Niobrara play. Unlike the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Williston, the DJ has seen a new record

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

4 months

With aggregate production over 100,000 barrels a day and per-well performance comparable to the Permian, the Uinta Basin unconventional plays have arrived. But with a unique geologic setting in an ancient lake, how much can we learn from other plays like the Permian? Here, I'm

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@tedcross

1 year

The decline in Permian well performance from 2022 compared to 2021 has been a huge topic in our industry. But was that due to inventory exhaustion, or something else? On the left, I'm showing avg nine-month cumulative oil production in the Midland Basin. 2022 shows the first

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

2 months

A little PSA on GORs. Here I am plotting the average GOR (rate gas / rate oil) for 2019 wells from 4 big basins. Wells naturally get a lot gassier over time. The average 5-year-old Permian well has 3x the GOR (~6 mcf/bbl) than a new Permian well (~2 mcf/bbl): So when you are

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

1 year

If rigs are falling, why is oil production rising? We have been getting this question a lot recently, and it's worth diving into as we consider the supply outlook for US shale. If you look at the numbers, through April 2023 in the Lower 48 operators brought on an average of 756

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

4 months

Just a quick reminder on gas production: yes, the Permian is an incredibly important gas basin. But that is due principally to the sheer number of Permian wells. The average recent Appalachian well produces ~7x the gas of a Permian well. Permian gas growth has been breakneck,

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

6 months

Story time. My grandfather was a manager at Texaco, and a round of layoffs meant golden parachutes and early retirement for him and a lot of his peers. What happened next? He told me that most of this group died within five years, as they didn't have anything left to do in their

Side Hustle LP

@SideHustle_LP

6 months

I'm convinced 80% of you won't ever fully "retire" even if money were no longer an issue, myself included You'd get too bored

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@tedcross

1 year

Most people don't realize how critical "fracking" has become to the energy mix. If we banned it today, US oil production would drop nearly 5 million barrels a day in just two years. 5 million barrels a day is more than Iraq or Iran produces. Would truly be a global shock.

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@tedcross

6 months

Great piece in the WSJ on earthquakes in the Delaware basin. There is a very clear ramp-up in earthquake activity since ~2017.

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@tedcross

7 months

In 2023, production from US unconventionals grew ~592,000 barrels per day, a surprise to some given the price collapse that took WTI down into the $60s. So where did the barrels come from? Surprisingly, the production growth from the US came from a mix of emerging, ‘middle

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

7 months

Last week we looked at the Midland Basin, where "Secondary Targets" like the Jo Mill and Wolfcamp D have driven substantial production growth over the last few years. So how are things going on the other side of the Permian Basin in the Delaware? The Delaware Basin is much more

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

10 months

Big news this morning as the long-rumored Oxy acquisition of CrownRock announced for $12B. Wow! With 170,000 boepd production and 1,700 remaining locations (Oxy estimates), CrownRock is one of the last remaining acquisition targets of this scale in the basin. Get much bigger,

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@tedcross

4 months

Big news this morning with XCL's Uinta Basin assets being acquired by SM Energy! This deal should put a spotlight on a remarkable basin: wells in the Uinta perform as well or better than the Permian or Williston. Looking at 2021+ well results, XCL's wells outperform SM's by an

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

10 months

Increased lateral lengths have been a major driver of increased production in unconventional plays over the last decade. But looking across the Lower 48, we find large differences in current mix and historical trends. What's going on? All the unconventional plays, with the

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

8 months

When you see the actual well performance compared to your engineer's type curve

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

1 month

Sorry yall, shale operators are really killing it this cycle

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@tedcross

9 months

Breaking news this Friday as rumors of a SWN-CHK merger are hitting the news. The combined company would be a gas juggernaut, producing over 7 bcf a day net and operating over 11 bcf a day gross. Truly staggering numbers! SWN and CHK along with EQT all operate over 5.5 bcf/d,

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

11 months

Well performance has been strengthening in the DJ even as it is weakening in the Permian, Eagle Ford, and other oil plays. Interestingly, this has been happening while the basin has been consolidating. So, we used machine learning models to analyze what has driven the well

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@tedcross

9 months

My father just sent this photo of me and the lil bro on location!! (It was a dry hole 🥲)

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@tedcross

1 month

More fun with AI art. How can you not love the Permian?

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@tedcross

10 months

"Occidental is paying about 5.6 times projected 2024 earnings for CrownRock — nearly double the multiples paid by Civitas Resources Inc., Earthstone Energy Inc. and Ovintiv Inc. in recent deals, according to Oslo-based Rystad Energy. The valuation is more comparable to Exxon

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@tedcross

1 year

Increasing lateral lengths have been a huge driver of increased performance over the last decade in unconventionals. But only 8% of wells drilled recently have laterals longer than 14,000 feet. Who's drilling them? Long laterals require engineering expertise to drill and

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

9 months

The largest oil field in North American history is the Permian? We are on our way there… Every now and then I have to pinch myself about just how much oil and gas has been produced from unconventional reservoirs. Truly earth-shaking numbers here: over 25 billion barrels of oil

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

6 months

We have the solution we need: American Natural Gas

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@tedcross

8 months

I’ve never told this story before, but feels like now’s the right time. A few years ago I saw a presentation on Google Earth Engine and thought “gee that might be useful for some stuff we are doing.” I followed up with the presenter later, and he told me that they wouldn’t allow

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@tedcross

1 year

There's been a lot of talk about Gas-Oil Ratio (GOR) in the Permian. But GOR in the Permian has been VERY stable compared to the other unconventional plays, rising only 29% there vs. 164% in the Williston or 74% in the DJ. What's going on?

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

8 months

Interesting - 4.7 earthquake near Karnes. Seismicity risks now in the Eagle Ford in addition to Permian? Anyone know more about this one?

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@tedcross

6 months

Coming soon...

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@tedcross

8 months

In our discussions on well performance, we often look at slices of actuals, like a 12-month cumulative, to compare basins. But what about EURs? Here, we're plotting our forecasted EURs for all horizontal oil wells since 2019 across the major basins. We're using a consistent,

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@tedcross

9 months

Just how productive can shale acreage be? Top counties will end up producing significantly over 2 million barrels per square mile – very impressive! Based on our analysis, almost all the top counties for productivity come from the Permian and Eagle Ford, with Loving and Karnes

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@tedcross

3 months

Where are the biggest shale wells being drilled today? We're forecasting >1 million barrel-equivalent ultimate recoveries for 1,509 wells across Lower 48 put on production in January 2023. The Permian dominates, but there are exciting developments in other basins too -- let's dig

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@tedcross

9 months

Gas drillers explaining their returns to the street

cora

@KylerCora

9 months

me before i know the answer to a very.reasonable. business question

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@tedcross

1 year

Rock quality dropping in the Permian? We took a look at average rock quality drilled year over year using our machine learning models. In the Midland Basin, 2022 showed a significant drop from 2020-2021, but still a step above 2018-2019. Maps in next tweet👇

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@tedcross

2 months

Franklin Mountain is a really nice producer: ~50k bopd - Strong well performance across multiple zones - Top notch acreage in southern Lea, plus some upside in Northern Lea

Energy Headline News

@OilHeadlineNews

2 months

Refining billionaire Paul Foster is seeking to sell Franklin Mountain Energy, one of the last large closely held oil producers in the Permian Basin - Bloomberg

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@tedcross

4 months

One of the big questions operators face in building development plans is where to land their wells. Our machine learning analysis shows that in the Midland, this can impact production over 10%, driving a nice improvement in NPV. Let’s dig in. There are various thought processes

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

2 years

This sure would have been easier if the IMF or OECD just considered revenues and subsidies all together. I wrote all about this, including detailing my sources, on my newsletter, Unearthed. You can give it a read here:

The boogeyman of oil and gas subsidies

Is oil and gas subsidized or taxed? For every dollar spent on production, two dollars are paid to governments. On average, fossil fuels are taxed to the tune of $1.3 TRILLION per year. The truth is,...

tedcross.substack.com

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@tedcross

8 months

It's official! $FANG out with the announcement this morning of the Endeavor acquisition. Tagline from the IR deck: "Creating the Must-Own Permian Pure-Play". Impressive overlap & scale, especially in the core NW part of the basin. We'll be out with more research later, but a few

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@tedcross

7 months

Making money these days in dry gas plays 🔥

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@tedcross

1 month

Finally got a sign up in our new office… looks pretty sweet!

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@tedcross

9 months

I didn't come up with this, but worth repeating: Partner at a law firm: sales M&A investment banker: sales Startup founder: sales Company executive: sales

Aleksey Chernobelskiy

@chernobelskiy

9 months

How old were you when you realized that most high paying career and entrepreneurial paths include sales?

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@tedcross

2 months

Also let's not forget, this particular cathedral took 280 million years to build. Our wells were just the final touch. (490 million if you want to go back to the Ellenburger) (map from deep time maps, go visit their website they're amazing)

Ted Cross

@tedcross

2 months

There are cathedrals everywhere for those with the eyes to see

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@tedcross

11 months

OK OK last one!

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@tedcross

8 months

Incredible. Google Gemini refuses to help with a job description for a fossil fuel lobbying job.

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

8 months

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@tedcross

4 months

“The Night Shift,” 2024 painting by Rembrandt-ChatGPT

Average Appraiser

@kevinfoyteck

4 months

@tedcross The AI threads are often annoying but this is by far the best I’ve seen. I want to see it do an O&G Rembrandt

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@tedcross

1 month

Pretty wild, we have managed to build up our database of proprietary, well-level data to be >20k wells and closing in on 2 million bbl/d. If it were its own operator, Novi's proprietary would be bigger than the next two largest uncons operators combined. Thanks to our

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

6 months

Live look at a geologist explaining why their prospect was dry

m. stanfield

@resetbasis

6 months

Me (an idiot): Are these financials audited? Something doesn’t seem right. Broker:

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@tedcross

8 months

The oil trading and storage hub of Cushing, Oklahoma got its start as an oil field over 100 years ago. The field peaked at over 300,000 bbl/d back in May 1915, helping to deliver meaningful volumes during World War I. Today, the field's legacy can be seen via the vast storage

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@tedcross

8 months

Wow... crazy political bias in Google Gemini. It refuses to draw an activist advocating for LNG, but "Just stop oil" is no problem!

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@tedcross

4 months

I’ll take the under

Roger Hallam

@RogerHallamCS21

5 months

12 per cent of the population of Phoenix, Arizona will die of extreme heat in the 2030s. So let's get to work on this one. 654 people died from extreme heat in 2023. Pretty bad. But that's not the stat to look at. It is the fact that death levels went up a whopping 700% in a

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@tedcross

7 months

In 2023, Lower 48 unconventional production grew 592,000 barrels a day vs. 2022. How does that compare to previous years? Here, I'm plotting yearly production growth in barrels (green bars) and percentage (black line). All yearly numbers are calculated in November in order to

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Ted Cross

@tedcross

1 year

The unstoppable Permian? The rig count in North America's most important basin has reached 348, the highest number since March 2020, even as the count in the rest of the L48 continues to fall.

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@tedcross

3 months

@FracSlap This is what you want: no heel drop, huge toe box, fits your jousting stirrup, some nice filigree to represent your fief.

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