Moonbirds marks a turning point in NFTs.
It's not about
@moonbirds_xyz
specifically. It's about the whole market.
As an experienced startup person, I can see a pattern emerging here. It has some important implications for the future of NFTs.
Read on to find out more.
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Every once in a while the meta changes.
Catching the meta shifts early can pay off big.
Imagine beginning investing in the PFP craze in May last year.
Imho, the Yuga Labs Otherside debacle plays into the next meta shift.
Here's how.
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Most NFT projects have by now cottoned on that they need to give "utility".
But most are getting this wrong and doing it in an unsustainable way that can't work.
Wanna be able to tell if the project you're looking at is sustainable? Read on.
🧵/N
NFT Project mints. Either they're hyped, and the floor takes off, people flip, the project lives...or it's dead in the water and not worth looking at.
Right?
No. There's another way. Let's talk about slow mints and why they make waaaaaaaaay more sense for most NFT projects.
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What are NFTs?
The right metaphor is worth a million words.
Explaining NFTs to people is hard. Most people, even those in the NFT space, barely begin to grasp the power of this technology.
Here's how I do it.
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@TheBrianMcManus
“All he did was show them a brochure”
Well, all you did was draw a bunch of lines in a CAD software 😆
Or… maybe there’s a little bit more to “sales” than you seem to perceive…
Why is volume a good indicator to watch in NFTs?
What moves the price of NFTs?
What is the fundamental behaviour and psychology behind those price shifts?
Let's break down the dynamics of NFT pricing a bit and figure out why.
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@ArmandDoma
@cindygallop
Conspiracists tend to end up signing up for the granddaddy of conspiracy theories eventually (“The Jews are behind it all!”).. not that surprised…
@MailOnline
I found it hard to get into The Crown. Felt a bit too much like "literally the most privileged people on Earth working very hard to create problems for themselves out of pointless nothing."
@esjesjesj
The only favourable way to interpret this is he’s not taking the question seriously (but then why?)…
Unfavourable is he really thinks “Earth” will blame a sea of faceless advertisers before they blame the owner of Twitter for destroying a major global public utility.
But at the core, I see several key uses of NFTs atm:
- As the fundamental building block of a global digital marketplace
- As collectible/tradable items for games
- As a powerful alternative to selling shares for startup funds
There are probably more, but these are the big ones.
This Get-Rich-Quick-As-A-Service "utility" of NFT projects is naturally unsustainable, and I, imho correctly, identified that this is the game that most of the "NFT brand plays" are playing, which is one of the reasons I tend to stay away from them.
Often in Twitter and Discord conversations I see that confusion and it makes conversations more difficult. So let me be extra clear:
Moon birds is a turning point for NFTs as a fundraising mechanism. Not for art. Not for web3 gaming.
For startups.
Gotta say, SBF is going up in the Evil Genius category here. The system is so corrupt that it can’t afford to recognise his crime, because then their last 4-6y of funding might be clawed back and they can’t afford it, so they existentially need to protect him.
So, the journos are trying to doxx people who were already robbed.
But are they pushing to find out where the stolen money *went*?
No, because it went to their friends — namely other journos!
Being doxxed *should* be more important in the NFT space. It would reduce the amount of scams.
Also, being doxxed should be better understood. Many people claim to be doxxed, but actually aren't.
Let's have a look at when and why it matters and how to do it right.
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Since all the way back in October last year, I have been suggesting that one of the primary functions of the NFT PFP project, as pioneered by
@yugalabs
' BAYC, is as a fund-raising mechanism for startups:
When people buy into your project, they are buying into your vision, your pitch, your hard work, etc. It's pretty similar to if they're investing in your business. They want you to be a success, they hope you will be a success, and they put their money where their mouth is.
4/N
They have pros and they have cons, for sure. The instant liquidity is a double edged sword. But a huge part of the promise of NFTs, for me, is that they export the Silicon Valley, "fund everything and see what works" model to the entire world.
The more BAYC got successful, the more it validated that it is possible to fund and build innovative businesses via NFTs.
But one thing I observed over all these months is, most NFT project creators, even well intentioned and driven, are not experienced business operators.
The headline news for people who have been hesitating to get into NFTs because of all the stupidness could not be more clear:
- Well known startup founders raise $75m of funding via NFTs
Cue tens of thousands of non-NFT entrepreneurs realising this road is open to them too.
@erikphoel
On what basis are you saying it did not trigger a Golden Age?
It seems fairly easy to construct many perspectives from which the last 75 years of human history have been a never-ending golden age, and the last 25 even more so.
As non-negligible side-benefits, they also democratise the process (instead of only VCs and accredited investors having access to them), they superpower the startup with an instant community, and they're more fun an engaging.
TL;DR: Otherside fuck-up marks another step away from the hype meta, as Yuga's erstwhile flawless execution record is now tarnished. I expect the next meta to be more focused on real utility worth paying for.
gm & gl
NFTs have offered an entirely novel way to do this, that, imho, can and will displace share issues as the primary way for startups big and small to raise funds.
NFTs can & should replace shares. But although they could replace them 1:1, they also enable much more creative ways of raising funding and sharing growth with early backers.
So I think a better way to put it is: NFTs should make share-based fundraising obsolete.
How? Why?
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@powerbottomdad1
Nuclear bros aren't saying "build more super expensive white elephant nuclear plants", they're saying "develop and build repeatable, mass produced mid-sized nuclear reactors that can mostly be made centrally and shipped around the country to power it when the sun is down".
I believe NFTs will replace shares as a primary mechanism of company funding, probably over the next 5 years.
Why?
Because they're just better. There are teething issues, sure, but NFTs are just so superior, they will take over.
To make use of this knowledge... read on.
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@GoingParabolic
It’s even worse than that! If someone turns off the internet switch, then all your tech stocks will be gone too! Google, Facebook, Netflix…
TL;DR:
@moonbirds_xyz
opens the door to Silicon-Valley style funding for experienced innovators and operators to flood the NFT market. Expect many more startups to raise money via NFTs.
gm & gl
PS: Please follow, RT, etc, if you read this far. There'll be more good threads ;-)
Btw, if you like this thread, you can find many more like it on
You might also like my daily market analysis, livestreamed at 2pm UK, 9am EST, on this channel:
I don't know what led
@Kevinrose05
and
@ryancarson
to conceive
@moonbirds_xyz
, but if they said Pixelmon was one of their data points I would not be at all surprised.
YugaLabs raised the ceiling of what's possible. Pixelmon showed the floor is pretty damn low.
To this I've said: most of those NFTs *are* securities. You can stick your fingers in your ears and yell and pretend they're not, but they're still securities. And they're better than shares, so embrace their nature and improve them, instead of dancing around the truth.
Moonbirds is, afaik, one of the first majorly successful (so far) projects that is unashamed about what it is. Kevin and Ryan have been very clear that they're raising money, that they're not "selling art", that they'll treat the money as funds to build a product, etc.
If you haven't read it yet, this thread analysing NFT project value from a sustainability perspective is a good read:
More here:
If you prefer video content, start here:
Most NFT projects have by now cottoned on that they need to give "utility".
But most are getting this wrong and doing it in an unsustainable way that can't work.
Wanna be able to tell if the project you're looking at is sustainable? Read on.
🧵/N
Anatomy of a good whitelist flip
Yesterday, I minted a
@pxquest
adventurer for 0.125+gas and flipped it half an hour later for 0.6+gas.
In a bear market (which we're likely heading into), WL flips are one of the main ways to make money from trading.
So how do they happen?
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The level of determination and focus that skilled founders are able to muster is just on another level. They have a very clear sense of what matters and what doesn't, they know how to deal with the typical business scaling issues, they end up just more relentlessly effective.
Let's debunk another Big Lie of the NFT space.
"Invest in bluechips".
Anon, I'm here to tell you that there's no such thing, and if you try to follow that occasionally well-intentioned bit of advice...
YOU WILL GET REKT.
Let's look at some fucken data.
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Fundamentally, NFT projects are not all that different from startup companies or other businesses. Many think they are "art" but they're not. They have investors looking for a return. They have a team working to deliver on a plan. They have a vision.
They're startups.
2/N
For the last few days, you can't throw a rock without hitting a youtuber talking about the amazing bull market we're in.
But are we really in a bull market? And can we tell when it ends so we're not the last ones standing when the music stops?
Enter the Market Health Index.
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I think I can see this clearly because I've been in the tech startup world for 15+ years. I've met countless founders at various points in their journeys, coached some, helped some with funding, observed their evolution. This is an area of expertise for me.
@theJeremyVine
@therealmissjo
Two humans encountered each other in a complicated and ambiguous situation. They read it slightly differently, and so their actions were not entirely harmonious. No one was hurt since both were paying attention.
News at 10.
How to invest better (or at least, more like a swombat)
Is it worth emulating my way of investing?
Well, that's up to you really. But I feel pretty good about it, and I get asked for advice by ppl on a regular basis.
And I think my track record is not too bad.
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@thatstraw
What's stopping me?
My desire to spend a higher proportion of my time using my computer, rather than servicing it.
Linux is very cool but a lot of stuff that's easy on e.g. Macs becomes a yak shaving expedition on Linux, and I'd rather do sth else with my time.
But having worked with many people who are skilled and experienced serial founders, I can tell you there's a very good reason why angels/VCs are way more likely to fund them than first time founders:
Proven experience is a huge edge in the startup space.
Are bull times back?
Spoiler: no.
But so where is all this market activity coming from? Prices ARE going up.
Wtf is going on?
Who is paying for all this?
How long will it last?
Ready for a trip down the rabbit hole?
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Better smart contract design is, imho, one of the pillars of improving the NFT space in the coming year.
Not only that, though, it can also be a powerful tool for improving the chances of success of your project.
This is another place where honest ppl's incentives align.
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What's the worst thing a founder can do to their NFT project?
The quick answer, "to rug it", is correct but also ambiguous. We don't have an agreed definition of "rugging", so ppl get lost in arguments about whether this or that was a rug, and lose sight of what matters.
Part of the confusion in the NFT market is that those things get blurred and mixed together, sometimes as part of the innovation process ("Why can't we be all three?"), sometimes as a way to obfuscate things and scam people ("don't judge our roadmap, we're art!").
The first big step was BAYC. It took a while to really prove itself, but it seems to me BAYC essentially pioneered the model of NFTs as a fundraising platform, with their godlike timing and flawless execution, they proved that a lot *can* be achieved with NFTs.
My prediction is that by the end of 2022, a very substantial portion of successful mints will be by people with existing startup experience, or with rock-solid value propositions, rather than "come mint our pugs, the roadmap is merch, metaverse and raffles".
What are some good things to consider if you're building a project?
I think we're still too early in the space to have a definitive list of patterns and anti-patterns, but I've been collecting ideas in a text file for a while.
If that's of interest, here are 16 of them...
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That's again not a diss. I love first-time founders. I was one too! All experienced founders were once first-time founders. We all have to start somewhere, and actually that's still where my preference lies in terms of investments.
.
@GiancarloChaux
explains how to recognise these projects in this excellent video:
If you're playing in that meta, the real P2E game is to find those projects early, buy them, hold them until they moon, take profits. That's how you make money.
NFTs can & should replace shares. But although they could replace them 1:1, they also enable much more creative ways of raising funding and sharing growth with early backers.
So I think a better way to put it is: NFTs should make share-based fundraising obsolete.
How? Why?
👇
@paulg
The UK does subscribe to the Human Rights Act via ECHR so it does have Article 10 which guarantees the right to freedom of expression.
It is qualified, however, and governments can impose restrictions for public safety, national security, etc.
Much like in the US tbf.
The obvious point that must have arisen in the minds of many founders observing this space is: if they can get $70m with nothing, I can probably get $70m with something, and use it for something I think is worth building.
Every time I mention how NFT projects are startups and NFTs are innovative alternatives to shares, people get scared that the SEC will come cracking down on the space, shut everything down, end the party, etc, because they'll classify NFTs as securities.
@MelancholyYuga
@ESYudkowsky
You present this as "way worse" but there's a big difference between writing a crap dissertation about some abstract design topic and consistently plagiarising others without citing them.
If writing a crap dissertation was a big deal you'd have to fire half of academia.
The trap of Investrading:
"I'm going to trade this project. It's going well! I'll keep it because it's going to the moon! Yes! 10x! Fantastic! Awesome trade! Oh no, it's back to 1x. Damn, it's gone down now. But I'll wait, it'll go back up!"
Read on for how to avoid this.
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Most NFT projects are about making money.
Often, even those that claim to be about charity are really just leveraging the get-rich-quick meta of the last 2y.
I'm helping launch a project that's different. About making a difference. And getting something valuable from it!
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My predictions for this year, and what I'm investing on, is that projects that bring real utility that's worth paying for will continue to do well. Whilst all but a few of the "hype" projects will go to zero or thereabouts.
They likely have spoken to enough lawyers to have multiple lines of defence in place to ensure they don't fall foul of securities law, so I'm not worried about "attracting the SEC's attention" to them.
They are serial entrepreneurs: they know how to deal with this stuff.
So I've been surprised to see so few of them in the space, despite the clear, obvious, huge opportunity, the large amounts of funding sloshing about, etc. I've been asking myself - why is anyone bothering to raise angel/VC funds at all when *this* is available?
@RuxandraTeslo
That therapist crossed a bunch of lines there and should lose their membership to therapy organisations, if they have any.
Not the therapist’s place to advise on life choices like marriage unless explicitly asked their opinion, and then only with major disclaimers.
First of all, what's the problem with hyped mints?
Well, the biggest thing is: they attract mostly flippers and other short term traders. Those kinds of investors have no loyalty to the project whatsoever. They mint, flip, and on to the next thing.
I know it's not fashionable to say this right now, but...
Yes, I am bullish on NFTs.
I'm bullish on NFTs used as a fundraising mechanism to build projects with real utility rather than "narratives".
Unless I can see a path to that amount being more than current cost, I don't invest.
This is why I wouldn't invest in Otherside. I think 99.99% of buyers bought because they want to make money. Playing the game is a side bonus.
No one pays $20k just to play an RPG game.
Whereas Pixelmon was a nobody raising a lot of money with a lot of hype to probably do nothing useful with it, Moonbirds shows that credible, serial entrepreneurs can raise a very substantial sum of money for a project via NFTs.
The world gives us a distorted perspective of what you need to be a "successful entrepreneur", to "make it".
For most ppl, building a business that pays them $10k/m is an epic success!
Not every biz is gonna be Facebook.
Plus you can always start another business afterwards!
This means that NFT projects will have to abide by simple arithmetic laws. They're easy to see if you look at the following simple diagram, which represents a typical business:
4/N
Over the lifetime of the project, it is impossible to break the following equation:
M1 + M5 = M2 + M3 + M4.
Money in = Money out.
You can't create money out of thin air. You can create value, and then get people to pay you for that value. That's what most businesses do.
6/N
@LucasHobbs17
@coinfessions
You don’t “owe” “complete loyalty” to anyone. Or if you do, that person is in fact yourself. Everyone else is by the nature of life temporary and conditional.
Still a total and indefensible dick move by the OP.
Since then, there have been a million copycats. I'm not saying this to dismiss those that followed BAYC: following in the footsteps of great innovators is not dishonourable! It's smart!
But essentially almost every project I've encountered is a BAYC follower in some way.
Whereas YugaLabs, when they started, operate in a grey area where utility was still a novel concept that ppl didn't understand, Moonbirds is clear that they're building a product and holding one of these early investment tokens will be rewarded if the product succeeds.
@Jason
That Lulu person is unbearable. She keeps interrupting others yet whenever she gets interrupted, raises her hand saying “let me finish”.
With that simple trick she got more talk time than all the others combined I think…
What Pixelmon proved was that you can raise serious, Series-A/B money ($70m) with basically *nothing*. No credentials. Not even a doxxed team (or even any team at all, perhaps). Just a not-very-fancy video and some hype.
Ppl don't really get how relevant transactional privacy is to them.
The usual examples (political donations) seem a bit unusual.
Let's have some concrete examples everyone can understand, why YOU, personally, will want sth like TornadoCash to anonymise ALL your transactions.
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Why I don't like investing in hyped projects
I am a quadruple-outlier:
Most investors don't invest in startups.
Most startup investors don't invest in crypto.
Most crypto investors don't invest in NFT projects.
And... most NFT investors follow the hype.
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Moonbirds have proven the model for entrepreneurs. Whether they then make Moonbirds itself a success is irrelevant.
The door is open.
Many more will come through.
Imho this will be the second killer app for NFTs (and crypto), after art: kickstarter on steroids.
And from that perspective, here's what I see as some major steps that have occurred in the last year, which will shed a light on why Moonbirds is important, and what it means for the future of NFTs as a fundraising mechanism.
Moreover, whilst Pixelmon was a notable event for people who were deep enough in the NFT space already to understand its significant, Moonbirds is obvious to everyone *outside* the NFT space. Kevin Rose and Ryan Carson are well known already in regular startup circles.
What's the least plausible, yet most convincing pitch for an NFT project?
Hint: it's so common that you've no doubt seen it many times.
It's vanishingly unlikely to work out. Yet it always works: it gets people excited.
You're probably vulnerable to it. And shouldn't be.
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When you buy a brand's story/narrative/hype... you buy something that will die when the attention moves on. It's risky. It can turn on a dime.
Eventually, people want lasting value for their money. The luxury market is big, but it's peanuts compared to the utility market.
PS: If you enjoyed this, you may wish to find more of my threads at
I would appreciate a RT if you liked the thread. Here's the initial tweet. Thanks ❤️🙏
What are NFTs?
The right metaphor is worth a million words.
Explaining NFTs to people is hard. Most people, even those in the NFT space, barely begin to grasp the power of this technology.
Here's how I do it.
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Anatomy of a long term investment
I minted 6
@crypto_coven
witches at 0.05. Then I bought 6 more around 0.1. Then I derisked, and I'm now just waiting to see where they land. Currently they are ranging between 2-3 eth.
What was my thinking on this play?
👇
Not gonna be popular rn with this take, but I'll post it and revisit in 6-12 months.
I see nothing of value in the DeGods project. Not even anything all that original or different. It's just one more trip round the same dumb ponzi ride, with the usual influencer pump.
@Duderichy
Marie Kondo basically does group/household therapy disguised as a tidying up show. It's brilliantly designed to attract views, and brings more awareness to being conscious, feeling things, working out emotional issues, etc.
It's not about the tidying, it's about the emotions.
The future of web3 is 100% TornadoCash.
This is a battle that the US govt will lose, like it lost the last one on encryption, because code is speech and privacy is an important right.
I'm going to try and lay out this case in less than 10 tweets (Challenge Accepted!).
👇
All startups fundamentally have to abide by a simple rule: you can't just create money out of nowhere. The money has to come from somewhere.
This applies even in crypto, unless your entire ecosystem has no interest in ever converting to/from other valued currencies.
3/N
Moonbirds marks a turning point in NFTs.
It's not about
@moonbirds_xyz
specifically. It's about the whole market.
As an experienced startup person, I can see a pattern emerging here. It has some important implications for the future of NFTs.
Read on to find out more.
👇
Finally, our third turning point in our journey of NFTs as a fundraising mechanism:
@moonbirds_xyz
.
For many months now, the NFT fundraising space has been in a state of slight schizophrenia about what it actually is and what that means.
If not... start figuring out how to deliver real value to your investors, who are, basically, also your customers.
NFTs are a fantastic new model for pseudo-commercial entities. But it's easy to get it wrong and just create another unsustainable scam without intending to.
38/N
PPS: If the word "Ponzi" really bothers you about your project that you're invested in, please feel free to substitute it with: "Project with serious sustainability concerns" :-P
41/39
When discussing the NFT space with ppl I constantly have to mention it's currently full of scammers and outright criminals, who have no qualms about starting endless rounds of ponzis to basically steal money from people.
But, I always add, this will change.
Why? How?
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