Well above normal SSTs through the basin. New England even today easily can support a Cat 3 at landfall. Waters will continue to warm through mid September.
If Ernesto was a SNE landfall I can easily see a cat 3 or cat 4. Just look at what HAFS A has coming into NS. Waters are about 8C colder S of NS compared to SNE and would have the kick of the Gulf Stream S of SNE.
The ATL may pick up in action to end the month which is what the weekelies have had for a few weeks now as conditions become more favorable for development.
Will be interesting to see how the Canary Current revolves through August. The C3S trended cooler with the July run as it was slightly below normal when the C3S was runned. The Carnary Current has been warming over the last few weeks and likely continues to warm next 2 weeks.