Steno Research @stenodata Twitter profile

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Steno Research

@stenodata

4 months

Steno Research Explainer: How the world got dependent on American chips.

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Steno Research

@stenodata

8 months

Jay Powell invited for a massive risk asset party after the Fed opened the door for several cuts in 2024. Will the Fed suddenly prove to be the most dovish of the big central banks anyway? Join us and @RaoulGMI for a deeper discussion

Macro Sunday #28 - Powell invites for a risk asset party. Guest:...

Jay Powell invited for a massive risk asset party after the Fed opened the door for several cuts in 2023. Will the Fed suddenly prove to be the most dovish o...

www.youtube.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

9 months

STRONG data seasonality in US key figures until New Years. Will the ISM reports, non-farm-payroll and inflation surprise to the UPSIDE leaving the Fed outlook at a tightrope again? Full analysis in comments.

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

FREE ARTICLE! We have a free article up with a thought provoking arguement about current state of OPEC and global crude market. Read along in the link below!

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

You should consider buying your Christmas presents now Free article on the global shipping troubles along with an outlook on what to expect going forward by @ulriksimmelholt !

Shipping Watch: Consider buying your Christmas presents now! - Steno Research

Over the last month, we have covered the shipping troubles in the Red Sea along with the potential consequences for markets. As we are of the opinion that this topic is very important we thought that...

stenoresearch.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

5 months

USD liquidity -> sideways to UP EUR liquidity -> DOWN Guess what inflation spreads will do from here, folks? Fed/ECB/BoJ/PBoC watch ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

1) The path to 2% inflation is tricky or almost impossible for the next 6 months. CPI needs to average 0% MoM, but is that feasible? 2) The cyclical price momentum has started to re-emerge before the lagging shelter category fully started to disinflation Full article here ⬇️

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

We were EARLY to the China Rally and chose to design the exposure via proxies to limit the risk of getting wrongfooted by empty promises Well in the money! Read here how we look at the latest events in China & much more in our latest EM! --->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

Our cryptocurrency portfolio, not even launched two weeks ago, is off to a flying start. We're up by about 8.59% versus US dollar and 0.5% versus Bitcoin. Visit the crypto portfolio at: .

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Steno Research

@stenodata

11 months

We host the great @WarrenPies in the newest episode of Macro Sunday with @AndreasSteno Apple Pod: YouTube:

#19 - Energy Stocks are the New Bonds

We host the great Warren Pies in a discussion on oil, bonds and everything related. Are energy stocks the new bonds and why? We take a closer look.We also cover

podcasts.apple.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

We host the great Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to a deep dive into the outlook for US Treasuries. What does the new House speaker and upcoming appropriations talks mean for markets and treasuries and how will the US fund yet another war? @AndreasSteno

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

Many anticipate the Bitcoin halving, but Ethereum's 'triple halving' is overlooked. We foresee Ethereum becoming a broadly used digital commodity with scarce supply and dividend potential, marking its uniqueness beyond the crypto world. Full note ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

The projected US budget deficit for 2024 has DOUBLED in a year... Why should that trajectory change? US Treasury rates will be structurally higher as a consequence. Our FULL analysis ->

Out of the Box #23: Why the Treasury undershoots actual issuance needs - Steno Research

The US fiscal trajectory is unsustainable and will require resolution, but does it inevitably entail excessively high-interest rates for “longer”? We have our doubts.

stenoresearch.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

5 months

Commodities are breaking out of ranges and it typically triggers a self-reinforcing loop! See illustration here! For FREE nuggets on macro and finance, sign up here ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

The market holds high hopes of a EUR PMI comeback Wednesday with all major countries exp. to see a comeback in both Services and Manufacturing. Our chips are placed on a soft surprise out of GER and FR. Both in services and manufacturing. Full take ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

3 months

Steno Signals #102 - Bad inflation news everywhere - Steno Research

We are getting unpleasant inflation surprises across the West again and the progress on inflation has even stalled in the Euro area. Can the consumer survive a prolonged period of inflation?

stenoresearch.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

FREE ARTICLE by @ulriksimmelholt Inflation expectations are trading around 2.25-2.5 percent and yet there is a sentiment among the Average Joe that the cost of living is still high. It’s Vibeflation. So how to deal with this? Well, just cut rates!

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Steno Research

@stenodata

9 months

@AndreasSteno host the great Mike Green for a talk on the outlook for the strong-going US economy in comparison to Europe and Asia. We also cover the softer-than-expected CPI prints and the subsequent rally in equities and take a victory lap on our Germany trade.

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

The Fed is insolvent. So is the ECB and all other major central banks. When will we all lose trust in them? Read @AndreasSteno analysis right here ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

History in the making! With three past Bitcoin halvings, each time leading to new all-time highs within 1.5 years, our eyes are on the upcoming fourth halving in April 2024. The same factors at play suggest a potential repeat performance 📈

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Steno Research

@stenodata

5 months

Previous Bitcoin halvings have consistently boosted its price within a year. The current trends echo the second halving, hinting the imminent halving may trigger a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event. Discover the reasons in our FREE note:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

Our PMI indicators are starting to look VERY upbeat for 2024. Is a cyclical rebound on the cards? More here -> You can also sign up to our FREE macro newsletter to receive a slide-deck on how to trade the cyclical rebound here ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

3 months

Did the European inflation progress just stall around 3% inflation? It seems increasingly unlikely that we will get a material cutting cycle from the ECB as well. We basically dislike bonds across the globe currently. Read more in our Sunday editorial.

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

Growth surprising everyone but the consensus of a slowdown certainly works against risk assets manic euphoria. Will growth adjust or will prices? Nowcasts are all betting on the economy cooling! Read our latest Portfolio Watch here --->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

5 months

From Stealth QE to Stealth QT? Q1 = Material Stealth QE Q2 = Material Stealth QT More ->

Steno Signals #93 - Material stealth QT upcoming during a war economy - Steno Research

The US is effectively running a war economy and the ultimate headache is typically not seen until the production pace is slowed. Meanwhile, Yellen allows for stealth QT in upcoming weeks and months.

stenoresearch.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

This essential crypto chart shows Bitcoin's nearly $2.5 billion in net inflows from exchange-traded products, including spot ETFs, last week. Find the chart every Monday in 'Crypto Crisp', our new weekly series. The first edition is free: .

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

Breakevens remain fairly anchored but in the front things are happening.. How do we trade it? See here:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

#PositioningWatch : Market insights for the new week! TLT inflows signal a strong trend, but early investors under pressure. Commodities vs US bonds: A compelling risk-reward perspective. Equities sentiment wavering, smart money cautious. FX positioning remains steady Read more⬇️

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

From QE to QT to now QB! Will the Fed continue with its liquidity tricks to prevent markets from going under? And what happens when the sugarcoating ON RRP facility is depleted? MUST watch developments in USD liquidity space. Read @Andreassteno full take on the situation here.

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Steno Research

@stenodata

2 months

Egypt, which had been exporting LNG since 2019, is now set to return as a buyer and plans to make its largest purchase of LNG in years to avert an energy shortage. Watch out for this to have a global effect on gas markets!

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Steno Research

@stenodata

3 months

In the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election, being crypto-friendly is key for voters. Trump is aware of this, but Biden is not—yet. It might just be a matter of time before Biden shifts his stance on crypto and approves an Ethereum spot ETF. 👇

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Steno Research

@stenodata

1 month

We have a special free macro nugget up on our site with a primer on the liquidity outlook for the rest of the year Remember to subscribe to our free newsletter for more updates on all things macro and markets:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

5 months

50% of S&P GSCI basket is up YoY yet the basket is not positive. 2024 has been about picking the winners up until this point, which include crude, copper and both precoius metals.

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

OPEC continuing its production cuts throughtout Q2 while PMIs rebounding sounds very bullish crude oil to us! Find out more:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

5 months

The Port of Baltimore is very important for shipping in the US 10% of the tankers flow in/out of the US total is out of Baltimore (see chart) It is the busiest U.S. port for car shipments, handling more than 750,000 vehicles in 2023..

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

Why you shouldn't be a Bitcoin Maximalist! Check out @MadsEberhardt latest analysis right here and on :

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

NAT GAS MARKET IS ULTRASHORT The Nat Gas market is now getting ultra-short again consistent with positioning seen during lockdowns and during the 2014/2015 energy sell-off. More on energy trades -> Free macro nuggets ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

Is Beijing's bet on the 'national team'—state funds buying stocks— a smart money magnate or a risky move? Read our latest EM here:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

3 months

China's massive copper stockpiling is reshaping global markets and driving up prices! This strategic move is set to impact everything from EVs to solar panels. Read our lates piece on emerging markets for more - see in comments

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Steno Research

@stenodata

1 year

@AndreasSteno @EmilMoller10 Listen to this week's Macro Sunday on: Apple Podcast: Spotify: Youtube:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

5 months

IS GERMAN REFLATION A HEAD FAKE? Just as markets thought that Germany was rebounding including a sharp rotation in to European stocks in March, here goes German high frequent data on electricity... Not good.. More in our Germany Watch ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

Now could be the best time to add exposure to crypto. 📈We launch our research offering on the crypto market. Read our first piece right here ⬇️

Crypto Moves #1 – The Best Time Is Whenever Nobody Cares - Steno Research

We launch our research offering on the crypto market amidst little interest from non-crypto advocates. We argue that this is historically the best time to add exposure to crypto.

stenoresearch.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

5 months

Retail and US institutional investors are now positioned similarly to global market participants in Bitcoin and Ethereum, as the Coinbase Premium Index has returned to neutral territory. More in this week's Crypto Crisp:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

All of the 2024 consensus trades are already toast 2024 consensus: - USD to weaken - Inflation would not reaccelarate - Rates to drop a lot Are we already back to square one? More ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

This price chart shows a crypto asset poised to monetarily reward its holders. For long-term survival, cryptocurrencies need to provide rewards, similar to equities, or risk being replaced by those that do. More in today's Crypto Crisp: .

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Steno Research

@stenodata

3 months

New month - New Macro Regime. It is everything UP, UP, UP this month. How does this impact your portfolio? Visit our site for more on how to trade the current macro situation.

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Steno Research

@stenodata

9 months

We host the former Chief of the Energy unit at the US Embassy in Kiev and co-founder of the Eney LCC, Suriya Jayanti for a discussion of the malaise in offshore wind markets. Why is wind energy suffering and is China to blame?

Macro Sunday #25 - Why is offshore wind not performing? Guest: Suriya...

We host the former Chief of the Energy unit at the US Embassy in Kiev and co-founder of the Eney LCC, Suriya Jayanti for a discussion of the malaise in offsh...

www.youtube.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

2 months

We trade in our crypto portfolio, adding a token with tremendous potential. The token generates substantial net income and stands to benefit significantly from increased Real-World Assets (RWA) activity. Read the note in full:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

11 months

Will the energy price rally trigger the recession as consumer savings are depleted? We look at this week's EIA data, whether it can be trusted and how it all impacted the world of Macro and your portfolio. Your host @AndreasSteno Subscribe for your

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Steno Research

@stenodata

9 months

Everything in the US economy is playing out according to expected lags Q1/Q2 will likely see a clear credit contraction. Chasing risk assets much higher here is not necessarily wise. Full analysis in comments

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

EVERGRANDE UNDERGOING LIQUIDATION! But what will it mean for markets going forward? Read our FREE Nugget on it right here:

Evergrande Nugget: Popping the World’s Largest Asset Bubble - Steno Research

Evergrande has now formally transitioned from a state of de facto default to a legal liquidation. How will the markets and Beijing act to the latest ruling?

stenoresearch.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

Crude oil above USD 80 was fun while it lasted. Our take on a wild week in crude oil here! Link:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

9 months

Demand currently takes the front seat in the oil market, but are markets underestimating the significance of geopolitical risks? And how can investors protect themselves from these risks amidst global disinflation? Read our latest take below!

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Steno Research

@stenodata

5 months

Do we have an outright MELT UP in commodities ahead of us? We tend to think so. Our trading piece -> For FREE nuggets, sign up here ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

The Saudi's are on the move! How do we interpret the latest news out of the Kingdom this week & how do we trade it? EM by EM #41 : Fearing the Fury but Fading the Fear:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

China is experiencing diminishing returns on additional leverage as insolvencies continue to rise. The question now is whether the leadership can successfully reverse the prevailing pessimism Read our latest on China here --->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

USD CPI Watch: The tricky path to 2% despite a soft report - Steno Research

The US CPI report will land in our inbox tomorrow, and while tomorrow’s print could look promising for the disinflation-crowd, the path toward 2% is more tricky than first anticipated.

stenoresearch.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

Is the all time widdow maker trade back? Natural gas is trading at 2020 lows, but there is no cheap lottery tickets. We need to see some action in spot markets before we see upward price pressures. For more:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

Just as we identified in last month's regime - and as our asset allocation model predicted -, risk assets have indeed performed. Question is if they will continue to. As always, we present our model framework on how to structure your portfolio.

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

Guest: Joseph Wang aka. @FedGuy12 Liquidity levels are improving in USDs and more may be upcoming via the depletion of the ON RRP. Will the Fed move towards more benign balance sheet policies over the course of the year? And how about a potential operation

Macro Sunday #40 - More liquidity is coming! Guest: Joseph Wang

Liquidity levels are improving in USDs and more may be upcoming via the depletion of the ON RRP. Will the Fed move towards more benign balance sheet policies...

www.youtube.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

Are rates beginning to hit levered firms? Small caps are typically characterized by floating rates and higher leverage and judging by their interest burden it seems like interest rates are starting to be felt. Large caps' interest burden, shows signs of improvment.

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

NFP REPORT FULL OF "FAKE NEWS"? The January report made for an extraordinary hawkish report on the surface, but it was full of data flaws Bottomline: Is the job growth re-accelerating? No Is wage growth re-accelerating? No Read more ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

Pemex just got downgraded adding extra flavour to the ongoing election in Mexico! What will it mean for markets and for the Peso?

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

NO Red Sea Solution In Sight! @RosenvoldGeo with our latest take on how long it will take to solve the situation in the Red Sea! More ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

Ready for another round of increasing freight rates? It is not completely out of the picture given continued pressures in supply chain pressures and seasonality in trade patterns. For more:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

The liquidity remains very weak in US Treasury markets. More volatility on the cards? Here is how we trade it. Our Portfolio Watch is out.

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Steno Research

@stenodata

1 year

... and here's how to trade it! As always, we follow up our interviews and analysis with actionable trade advice. Completely transparent and independent @AndreasSteno @EmilMoller10

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

Are credit spreads asleep at the wheel? Credit standards remain tight and yet credit spreads have moved nowhere. Is complacency sustainable? Our full credit watch below. ⬇️

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

China keeps throwing liquidity toward manufacturers but capacity remains muted in comparison to American industry. EM by EM #39 : All roads out of China lead to goods disinflation Full piece -->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

How are the flows in Bitcoin ETF's moving through January? This and much more in this week's 5 Things We Watch:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

9 months

There is a high probability that Thursday's EUR inflation number will come in lower than the -0.2% MoM consensus due to seasonal price effects, which are more severe this year than in previous years due to the discounts given on Black Friday being larger than usual as a result of

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

Did the yield curve even invert in standardized terms? Was the recession signal always wrong? Find out more in our editorial here -> For FREE macro nuggets, sign up here ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

9 months

Macro Sunday #24 -The End of US Outperformance? - Guest: Mike Green

We host the great Mike Green for a talk on the outlook for the strong-going US economy in comparison to Europe and Asia.We also cover the softer-than-expecte...

www.youtube.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

Positioning Watch: Who blinks first? - Steno Research

These days, everything seems to be in motion, but not all at the same pace of change. Dive into our inaugural Monday edition of Positioning Watch below to discern the disparities

stenoresearch.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

This crypto bull market is the least speculative yet, primarily driven by Bitcoin spot ETFs, the expected Ethereum spot ETF, and institutional flow. Being aligned with these factors should yield positive results with lower risk. Our detailed analysis:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

9 months

US rates nugget: 4 charts on why November data will reignite the hawks - Steno Research

The USD weakness has been striking over the past trading week. Markets have extrapolated the softness in the US CPI from October, but is it fair? US data could perform strongly until New Year's due...

stenoresearch.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

We cover OPEC's impacts vs non-OPEC countries and ask how far the Saudis are willing to go. Plus, who is the winner of a OPEC breakdown and what are the geopolitical impacts. By @ulriksimmelholt

Out of the Box #26: OPEC is dead in it current form - Steno Research

Free article on the issues surrounding OPEC and global crude oil markets!

stenoresearch.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

9 months

Recent production decreases by the Saudis have led to export numbers converging and in terms of income the OPEC production cuts have allowed the Americans to steadily get around USD 350 million a day in export income at the expense of Saudi Arabian export income

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

The big three central banks all pushed slightly back against rate cut expectations, but what is the likely timing of the first cut? We have taken a look here at the timing for the ECB, the Fed and the BoE. Link ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

With beyond strong US econ. growth, the interplay of growth, inflation, and liquidity takes center stage. How will this robust expansion shape the inflation trajectory and inform structural asset allocation strategies? Answers to that and more in this months SR Macro Regime

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Steno Research

@stenodata

7 months

INFLATION IS NOT RETURNING TO 2% IN THE US Inflation is likely to re-accelerate unless Powell turns around again.. See the link between financial conditions and inflation here Full article ->

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

Credit Nugget - Who’s got the tightest standards, and what does it mean for credit spreads - Steno...

As SLOOS-alike reports have come in for both EU and Japan, we have a look at the differences in credit surveys across the Atlantic, and which credit spreads to look out for in the time to come

stenoresearch.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

6 months

Container rates have peaked for now, but without progress in the Red Sea, there is a risk of a return of higher rates by the spring-time. The damage for US inflation has likely already been done For more:

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Steno Research

@stenodata

1 year

Will Xi fire the stimulus cannon?

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Steno Research

@stenodata

9 months

We have taken the unpopular decision to buy the wrecking-ball cocktail of the USD and Oil after a massive sell-off. Read our reasoning and find our assessment of the risk/reward in various trades in our weekly portfolio watch!

Portfolio Watch: The last dance? - Steno Research

We have taken the unpopular decision of being net long USD and Oil after a massive sell-off. Read our reasoning below

stenoresearch.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

10 months

Macro Sunday #21 - the US Treasury onslaught over? - Guest: Bob...

We host the great Bob Elliott of Unlimited Funds to a deep dive into the outlook for US Treasuries. What does the new House speaker and upcoming appropriatio...

www.youtube.com

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Steno Research

@stenodata

9 months

The Bitcoin price appears to be little driven by retail euphoria and speculation, but rather by institutions making spot purchases and long-term holding rather than short-term trading. This is stressed by the ever-decreasing Bitcoin exchange reserve.

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