Good Evening Folks. Due to some constant queries and feedback, I have come up with a Telegram group to facilitate the interactions and quality discussions.
Broader Group Rules:
1. No investing tips, buy or sell reco.
2. Discussion should include stock
#DataCenter
Theme
Love this forward estimates and my bet is on
#Anantraj
from 300 levels. Though Netweb will be the Leader on GPUs and E2E and Blackbox to fill in their respective value chain... Valuation wise new entries now wouldn't be wise for Netweb, E2E, Techno...
Anant
My main Portfolio (around 75 - 80% of my overall Invested Equity) - Hardly I may churn except for re-sizing as part of PF Rebalancing.
#OrianaPower
(holding Horizon - till FY 26 and will review by then) - 12%
#Advaitinfra
(holding Horizon - till FY 26 and will review by then) -
#OrianaPower
Price nearing Preferentials 1800 range and one of the most undervalued Company in my pf.
Expecting a solid HY1 results 400 to 450 crores topline with 12 to 15% NPM.
FY2025 conservative estimate of 1600 to 1750 crores topline with a 12 to 15% NPM and FV range of
#AdvaitInfra
It would be better to call them covering most of the facets of the value chain in the Sustainable power & green energy solutions..
My favourite is Green energy, which includes hydrogen electrolyser (They have the mfg. license), fuel cells, BESS and solar EPC n
#AnantRaj
#DataCenter
#Cloud
-ColocationServices
As per Management guidance, 3300 Crores of rentals from the 307 MW DC. Even with a high OPM margin of 65%,
By end of 2028, we can expect the 307 MW to be in use: it works out to 2140 crores contribution p.a. and we have to take
#AnantRaj
Somebody commented that AnantRaj can max go 3 to 4 x by 2028.
It's already 3x from my buy price and marching steadfast towards 1 year forward valuation range.
307 MW DC is under construction with 22 MW will be ready for commercials by this year end.
Long way to go
#AdvaitInfra
Growth Triggers
1. Entering Africa and other countries
2. Green Hydrogen - Focus on Electrolyser and Fuel Cell technology.
(Rishikesh Project is India’s First Hydrogen Energy and Advait has completed this successfully)
3. Phase 1 Mfg upto 300MW and phase 2 with
#AdvaitInfra
#TECO2030
One of my group member has raised some concern about the recent Investment by Advait Infra into TECO 2030 and the stock crashed almost 99 % in an year.
Based on my analysis and discussions with a few friends, briefly summarizing my understanding for the
#CosmicCRF
- Current Capacity 101000 MTPA
- Planning to Takeover companies outside the state and 3x bigger than the Current Capacity.
- Order Book- 504 Cr
- Focus on Prototype Products - Higher Margin Business (confident that overall margins will improve upon).
- Wagon TAM
#Atmastco
EPC + Fabrication + Defense.
Apart from their consistent performance on EPC and fabrication (a minimum CAGR of 25 to 30%), their new defense factory to supply bullet-proof jacket, helmet,.. will be ready for commercials by October and in terms of numbers considering
#Oriana
#TrueRe
My first buy was around 400 levels. I started tweeting at 500 levels and there was little to no noise at that time.
When I have been super bullish around 800 levels and written all detailed thesis and rationale, there were mixed opinions.... many didn't have
#Oriana
The boss is in the deep sleep and will now slowly be getting ready for the rally
Looks like they could easily beat the conservative topline estimate of 1700 crores for FY25.
Generally Q3 & Q4 would be much stronger than 1st two quarters.. yet I expect the HY1 results
#Oriana
Power
#Preferential
Allotment
Oriana power to issue Upto 13,50,000 Equity Shares at a price of
Rs. 1,820/- per Equity Share in Cash.
Good news and expected indeed!! As Management has set an ambitious target to achieve a 1000 crores topline in 2025 and 1GW by 2026 how
#AnantRaj
FY25 1st quarter Results.
Solid and constant compounder.
Rev at 472cr vs 316cr, Q4 at 442cr
PBT at 104cr vs 57cr, Q4 at 98cr
PAT at 91cr vs 50cr, Q4 at 82cr
The revenue is mainly from their Real estate segment.. though the contribution from DC wilp kick off from the
Adding the following stocks
#HG
Infra (New entry)
#Tarachand
(Averaging)
#Eco
Recycling (Averaging)
#Balu
Forge (only small lots due to the past issues.. Zenith was holding shares on this Co).
Not a buy or sell reco, DYOR before investing
Let me share my long term picks (at least for next 4-5 years) and picks are based on my research of Sectors, market size and opportunity, Company's proven track record and capability in execution and though current valuations of a few picks are in its overvalued zone will
Water and renewables are mega and multi decadal themes. Moreover proxy to major themes like DC, semicon, EV, GH, ......
Planning to create a monthly SIP with 7 to 10 scrips and any suggestions pls.
#RBMInfra
Though I have my own set of questions about the Company and how they will be scaling up their operations to take up this turnkey contract.
With their small BS and negative CFO, but let's give due credit for the Management fire n hunger to grow bigger and winning such
#WaareeRTL
A few bad quarters are ok..
1. Huge order books and technical expertise backed by the Parent co is an added advantage. but concern is slowing down upon execution and current valuations.
2. Valuation is a concern. As per guidance (1.8 to 2 GW for FY25) we are
#EMS
Excellent delivery and consistent performer with the clear visibility (5* orderbooks).. Asset lite business model with excellent margins.. Conservative guidance given sector tailwinds….
Will keep accumulating and anything below 3 digit is still a value buy.
#oriana
As I keep saying, they will best all the market estimates and come home with flying colors.
1600 Crores is still a very conservative target for FY25 and 1600-2000 could be pretty much achievable.
FY26 would be the big bang.... hold it tight and don't worry about some
My current PF has got 45% on
#Renewable
energy theme (Which includes Green hydrogen, CBG, BESS and proxy Cos like EPC cranes, power financing ,…),
#Power
Transmission..
15% on
#Defense
n space..
15% on
#EmergingTech
(which includes AI, web3,
EV and wind energy took a back seat this time.
Railways and AI may need more allocation as well.
Defense, RE, water treatment and Recyling, Infra are gaining momentum
#PIGL
Recent Developments and future outlook:
- Secure a project in Sardar Vallabh Bhai Patel Airport
- Shortlisted for Udaipur Airport
- Raised 71 Cr from Preferentials to finance Expansion plan, new Business...
- Buying Petaon - From 50 to 70% to make subsidiary.
- Focus
#Inoxwind
India is inching towards an incremental wind capacity of 100 GW over the next 6-8 years. a realistic estimate of adding on 8-10 GW annually over the years and ramp it up to achieve the target of 140GW wind capacity by 2030.
Order books -
There is no need for one to worry about missing the stock rallies.
Structurally, the Indian economy is intact and I am super bullish especially on domestic themes. A lot of organized negative narrations built upon SME space won't last long and eventually liquidity will start
#RenewableEnergy
#solarenergy
#windenergy
Let’s summarise the market size and opportunity before getting into analysing stock specific details.
Climate change is one of the main factor driving the RE push across the world.
As we are not seeing much with hydro, thermal is
#DefenseStocks
With the recent ICICI securities call on MDL n GRSE to fall 75 and 73% made many panic selling.
Krishna defense is another example that fell from the ATH and is currently trading around 600.
Krishna has been falling because of overvaluation (even with a 35 to
#AnantRaj
It's ATH and for me from 270 to 630. It has just started and my holding horizon will be 2028 to 2030 and beyond.
A huge potential multibagger in the making.
@dmuthuk
Modi ji will be taking oath and he isn't a kind of person to leave things in the middle and walk away.
Naidu and Nithish may demand more, and some compromises are OK as long as they don't interfere with the development politics.. yes, there will be some hip hop... but hope he
I am not posting much for the last couple of weeks nor doing much churn on my pf.
A bit of swing n momentum trades, but will await for sep results before any rebalancing.
New entries into pf include Positron, Zenith Drugs and RBM infra.
Partial exits from Kernex, Sathlokar,
#PRATHAM
EPC
#MultibaggerStock
Co. is specialized in the integrated EPC projects primarily into oil and gas pipelines apart from the water project services.
They have recently raised 36 Crores from the fresh issue of 48 lacs shares and proposed
#kore
Digital.
Provides high-end communication solutions to Telecom operators and into telecom Infra.
With a good clientele and proven execution in the past, posted steller Dec'23 quarter results.
Per management guidance, Co has a order book of 400 Crores focussing on
#Defense
A sector overview.
I don’t have time to condense it here.
Thought of sharing some good reads to broaden our understanding about this sector.. in a way this help us to foresee what this sector hold for the investors, and growth estimates and importantly to
#MArketDrawdown
The fun isn’t over yet and don’t think Market will be recovering so quickly considering the Japan market showing some strength.
West is giving us huge worry and macro indicators are showing recessionary pressure as well.
Indian economy will continue its
#Oriana
Power
Based on the projections and subsequent orders received in the last couple of months, the 2 year forward FV stands in the range of 3,500 to 4,700 and expecting a minimum CAGR of 40% from FY 26 onwards.
No intention to sell anytime soon, atleast till 2032.
#Oriana
Power
Great theme and tailwind sector.
Delivered 100 MW+ across India so far.
Per guidance, trying to use IPO proceeds of 60 crores to develop 100 MW over next 2 yrs. Per guidance, 470 crores potential.
Realization is Rs. 4 per MW.
Developing solar park in Rajasthan
#SMEHoldings
#BoringMarket
I haven't sold any of my SME holdings.
Expecting Sep results to be the catalyst and SMEs will make a new ATH.
With FED rate cut expectations already factored in, do we expect a strong corrections or liquidity and US elections can save us to navigate
#Undervalued
Stocks
I have so far discussed only those stocks where I have invested... but come across a lot of SME scrips which are still undervalued given the growth trajectory... but I don't have enough funds to invest on it.
Will start sharing at least 1 undervalued pick a
SME segment is under pressure and flippers are cashing out I believe and of course some week hands are panic selling n walking out.
Neither buy or sell and this is the time to stay calm and relax. Better to stay away from the SM negativity spreading around and don't forget that
#WAAREERTL
#RenewableEnergy
#SolarEnergy
#solarEPC
Substantial growth in the topline with
#TTMsales
665 Crores and let’s expect a maintainable OPM of 15% to 20%.
The introduction of new capacities in China has created substantial supply pressure and expected a prolonged
#Datacenter
#AnanatRaj
#JSWEnergy
#TechnoElectric
Undoubtedly, DC stocks are heating up and ready for a huge rally in the coming years.
Let's briefly learn some basics about the DC business model.
1. Datacenter is a capital intensive as well as high yielding business.
2. Site
#AnantRaj
So now the question is how did I arrived the 65% OPM.
Please spend sometime and do your home-work. There are various research reports available like ICRA, B & K,… Industry average margin around 45%.
If you read their April’24 concall, Amin Sarin
Folks let's not sell stocks consolidating in a range while others are moving 20 to 30% quickly.
Sometimes.. No most of the time, good scrips may test our patience and as long as you have the trading mindset would force you to exit and look for short term gains. Nothing wrong
#RBMInfra
Twitter is flooded with the concall notes.
24 guidance is weak and half of the 2025 guidance has already been priced in. Though with the L1 ONGC order and solar EPC order, if one can give 2 to 5 years then this will be a huge multibagger.
Caution to be exercised on
#Oriana
Power
#TrueRE
Twitter is flooded with the blockbuster results and nothing new for me to add here.
Let’s discuss some of highlights and what to expect in FY 25.
1. OPM has been improved and NPM around 15%.
2. Borrowings are under control.
3. Very good
EPR guidelines will kickoff in 2025 and this industry is expected to grow at a CAGR of 28% and from 2025 to 2028 will be the game changing years.
I am expecting Recycling theme to be much bigger than mining in the decades to come.
#recycling
#waareeRTL
#Valuation
#Margin
of safety
Market doesn't care about my opinion or your opinion....
1. Is the Co. good/great.. yes.
2. Have good fundamentals, good margins and growth potential, sector tailwinds and substantial market share and new lines of growth opportunities,
#SolarEPC
Some handles started complaining about Cos. not reporting any new orders.
I think they have a business to run and while no major changes happening in the business environment.. don't think one should be panic and worried about temporary volatility in the stock prices.
#Sathlokar
- Fully integrated EPC player on construction services (Commercial and industrial) as well as solar projects
- An authorised channel partner to Tata Power Solar as well as MNRE approved
- 669 Crores of orderbooks as at beginning of this FY. They have won several
#PowerTransmision
#Renewables
#SolarEPC
#Hybrid
#Hydrogen
If someone can witness the recent rise of buzzing themes like Data center, semicon or Green hydrogen/fuel cell.. Electricity and pure water constitutes significant portion (> 80% of the OpEx) and for me Solar EPC and
@RajStockWatch
#FuelCellOverview
Raj Ji, as promised my brief notes based on my limited research and hope yo may find it useful.
Assessing the commercial viability and profitability of hydrogen fuel cells in both markets involves understanding the current state of the industry, potential
@Atulsingh_asan
In my hometown, a panipuri seller has bought an independent house 80 lacs+ fully funded by Cash.. zero debts. Their business model is more robust and working on their own terms in time which salaried employees don't have it anyway
@RajStockWatch
#FuelCellOverview
Raj Ji, as promised my brief notes based on my limited research and hope yo may find it useful.
Assessing the commercial viability and profitability of hydrogen fuel cells in both markets involves understanding the current state of the industry, potential
#IndianSemicon
#Businessmodel
#RevenueModel
#Proxies
/Beneficiaries
Further to the extensive coverage by Dr, I would like to add a few pointers
Business and Revenue Model of Semiconductor Fabrication (Fab) in India
India's semiconductor manufacturing landscape is at an emerging
If anyone looking forward to take fresh positions in the market, be prepared to accumulate more during the corrections, if any
There is hardly any MOS with the most of the scrips and time to play safe.
When Market doesn't respect the valuations while the Euphoria is at its
Now I will be awaiting for the concall more than the results of
#Advait
Infra. I am pretty much interested to know the progress of their electrolyser Mfg. facility.
We have 2 years to accumulate
#Anantraj
as the expected time to complete Datacenter by 2026.
Market will be
Market is running like a beast and I am still expecting some corrections.
Averaged a few long-term picks which I believe has got some good growth potential and undervalued considering the estimated growth trajectory for the next 12-24 months.
#AdvaitInfra
#AnantRaj
#EMS
@sriramchennai07
He is simply nothing more than a noise and apparently bursting out his frustrations out of his inability. A man with envy and jealous will not settle down forever.
#AnantRaj
I have got some queries regarding what to expect in the short-term as 2028 looks long time from now.
Alright. A few pointers before we gets into the valuation.
1. with the recent QIP, Management is confident of closure of most of the debts resulting in huge savings
@Vismaya9999
We shouldn't entertain or promote these senseless idiots.
Better ignore and if they come,, need to hardly storm these crooks once for ever
We cannot let them screw our markets... Who the damn are they anyway
#RDSS
#Salzerelectronics
#SmartMetersProject
Company is engaged in the Industrial swithchgears, Wires n cables and Energy management solutions.
They are also getting into fast chargers for EV and looking for exploring new markets as well. As per management guidance, we can
Remember a couple of good stocks with a decent allocation can change our life.
Be an investor and give a good time horizon for businesses to scale up and deliver
#AdaniStocks
I never bought Adani Stocks except for some swing positions few times, but tomorrow will load it with all my available cash.
Let‘s show off the crazy lunatics who we Indians are. Stand united and bankrupt the so called Research firm once for all..
FIIs are chasing the china market and it's purely a momentum based move without any fundamental push in the economy. With the stimulus, it may take a couple of quarters for activities to zoom in and so don't worry much.
Ours is a structural bull run backed by the huge growth
#ZenithDrugs
Major ORS player and with the recent capex, on right track and bagging major orders now
They have secured two contracts: one from the Ministry of Defence for Pregabalin 75mg for 2 years, and another from Odisha State Medical Corporation worth ₹2
#Aelea
In the SME space, the promoter's pedigree is very important.
They have announced significant expansion plans and what more an Investor wants. Give them some time and the numbers will speak.
disc., I am invested and biased
In SME bet is on Management calibre.
My Bet in
#Aelea
commodities is
The promoter.
Mr Hozefa jawadawala.
-CFO of Olam international Ivory coast
-London overseas cashew & cocoa operation
-ED&F Man overseas sugar division
&
Worked 5 years CFO of Tata international Agri
#MarketFall
#StockFundas
#Earnings
#Valuation
Folks! Market is going through some mixed phase now.
Many Fund houses are sitting in a pile of cash awaiting sharp corrections.
Retailers are getting panic and with a little 5-10% corrections in the last couple of days, I could
If you are given an option to invest in Kay Cee energy and Viviana, which one will you go for and explain along with your rationale and valuations. Investing horizon 2 years
When Cos. Give 10x, 20x revenue targets, don't simply get carried away and think about what have changed over the years and why do they think this could be achievable.. what are the moat they have as compared to their peers.. change in TAM, any capacity expansion or sector
#Mazagon
#GRSE
#CFF
#KrishnaDefense
The current geo political situation is very alarming and it's just a beginning of a bigger disaster.. though we hate to encounter such a situation and let peace prevails.
For a Country like India, Martime safety would be a predominant factor
#JupiterWagons
#Natcopharma
Gaining good momentum and got huge growth potential ahead.
#HBLPOWER
#ShilcharTech
are Laggards, but will be the killers in the longer run.
Hold good stocks with patience and give some time for it to grow..
#Teerth
Gopicon
#Multibagger
They have delivered and PE normalized to its range of 20+..
They have got a huge order books of roughly around 1000 crores and provides good future visibility, though I am not sure about the execution timelines..
A possible multibagger in the
Teerth Gopikon - H2/FY24 RESULTS (At Rs.199 PE was 29. Now just 20 ) REAL CLASS! Shows the order book is no fluke but REAL. This can multibag!🔥🔥🔥
Vs H1👍
REV: 68Cr Vs 37Cr🔥
PAT: 8.13 Cr Vs 3.42Cr
Vs FY23
REV: 105Cr Vs 39.2Cr🔥
PAT: 11.56 Cr Vs 1.79Cr🔥
#GenusPower
QOQ is flat despite many investors expecting PE normalization.
Having said, If they can able to improve their bottom line say an EPS of 2 over the next remaining quarter of FY25, then the current price could be justified at an PE of 50 - 60.
I am positive on the
Genus Power
#Q1FY25
Fantastic result 🔥👏
Revenue at 414 Cr vs 261 Cr YoY
PBT at 63 Cr vs 30 Cr
Net Profit at 48 Cr vs 23 Cr
EPS at 1.74 rs vs 0.99 Cr
#Genus
#stockmarketsindia
#Oriana
Power
#Valuation
I have got a few DMs about why am I betting strongly on Oriana and why not KPI Green or Waaree RTL.
1-2 years forward PE is lower with Oriana as compared to the others and yes, Oriana operates at mid token sized projects as compared to Waaree but
#AdvaitInfra
Further to my last tweet, as there are no much required clarity from Advait due to lack of concalls or Analyst meet, I would make an attempt to assess their current orderbooks and project their execution for FY25 and valuation.
August Orders
1. 296 Crores order
#AdvaitInfra
It would be better to call them covering most of the facets of the value chain in the Sustainable power & green energy solutions..
My favourite is Green energy, which includes hydrogen electrolyser (They have the mfg. license), fuel cells, BESS and solar EPC n
Most of the people in the stock market are looking for convenient lies and narratives.
Only a little are interested in growing steadily.
It's a skill or art, nothing comes so easy, and in the end your efforts and commitment matters. Don't simply go by borrowed convictions.
Numbers speak louder here.
This can help to improve your conviction on the themes and PF stocks.
Private capital has just started flowing in and once we have the deadly combo of public and private spending would be phenomenally huge.
Have conviction and hold patience.
#O
&GIndustryOverview
#Oil
&GasBasics
#Valuation
1. Oil and gas assets represent the majority of value of an E&P company.
2. Reserves described as “a measurable value of a company’s worth and a basic measure of its life span
3. Understanding the fair market value of a company’s
#AdvaitInfra
Solid delivery and maintaining Q1 at similar level to Q4 would be commendable.
COGS and employee costs has been controlled and margins well maintained Within the levels.
Expecting Q3 &Q4 to be 2/3* Q1&Q2…. Projected topline for FY25 around 450-500
Advait Infra Ltd👑
Good Q1FY25✨️
Revenue : 60 Cr vs 27.46 Cr (YOY) 118%🔥
Net Profit : 5.35 Cr vs 1.47 Cr (YOY) 263%🔥
Q1 is supposed to be a weak qtr, overall good set of Nos.✨️
Expecting YoY to keep growing at high pace as its has been performing✨️
#advaitinfra
@CAKritarth
FY26 topline projection would be 3000 to 3500 (Management guidance to achieve 1 GW by 2026) and expecting an execution of 650 to 750 MW on solar and commercials commencing from other verticals 8k to 10k at a very conservative estimate ( after discounting a little margin squeeze
#Shilchar
Their new 3,500 MVA capacity has commenced production last month and they still have 500k sq.ft of vacant land and Phase 2 expansions in couple of years time based on the demand (Future expansions planned through internal accruals and no additional borrowing costs is a