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Charging up #Bitcoin research / Ph.D. in Materials Science & Engineering / Best Bitcoin Data Show Co-Host

*Not financial advice*
Joined February 2009
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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This is post is purely to gain feedback from other analysts: It has come to my attention that the r2 (a key goodness-of-fit metric) improves, slightly but non-trivially, if you adjust the 'Days Since' date (most of us in this community (not all) use 'Days since January 3, 2009.'
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#Bitcoin eats everything up, in a predictable fashion. . . . Gold - the stable hedge against inflation, precious metal commodity Oil - the world's most historically critical raw material and energy commodity S&P500 - leading stock market index covering the equities category
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I bring you: The Bitcoin Decay Channel™ . . . 1/ There are a number of #Bitcoin price guides both inside and outside the X sphere; oscillators/indexes for short-term trading, and projections for longer-term planning. The Decay Channel is the latter but is the basis for an
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I wanted to highlight a study looking at the decaying peaks of the #BTC price residuals from each cycle (this is what is used to build the Decay Channel and also the Oscillator). Here I simply did an exponential decay fit of the max residuals (price / .05 quantile power law
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Bitcoin's sitting at roughly $60,649 (daily close) and is: 21.7% below fair value according to the OLS regression model, which is $77,464 (mean). 38.3% above fair value according to the modal regression model, which is $43,852 (mode). 10.5% below fair value according to the
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Here it is... the Bitcoin Decay Oscillator. - - - #Bitcoin is loading and currently at.................... 27.7% Where do you think it's going next? 📈 - - - This is the first functional oscillator that 0-100 normalizes between the 4-point-residual-derived exponential upper
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MSTR is in a bubble. Plots are showing BTC vs. MSTR price since the date @saylor began adding BTC to his company's balance sheet (Aug 11, 2020) (left) and projected out to a $200k BTC (right). MSTR price regressed onto BTC price shows an R2 = 0.86 as an exponential function.
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Turns out #bitcoin is also a power law in barrels of oil. As such, by 2034, 1 BTC would buy you enough crude oil to power your home for 1000 years. 🛢️⚡️ . . . A fun thought experiment: you are able to buy your own crude oil in the open market, and have it shipped to and stored
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Let's deep dive a little on cycle top predictions using quantile regression! If this BTC cycle top occurs on November 1st, 2025, the 99th percentile prediction is $275,000! 🤯 - - - Recently popularized by the likes of @TheRealPlanC and @Sina_21st (follow both for some of the
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Discouraged after this drop? Don't be. Let the Decay Channel Oscillator provide a view with more optimism and opportunity: #Bitcoin Decay Oscillator 8/5/24 Still loading at...............................................15.8% - - - Long way up, still - pack your bags for the
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New look for the Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator! Oct. 17, 2024 Still loading and currently at.....................................25.1% Current price: $67,134 - - - Showing 2024 zoomed-in, with this morning's hourly BTC price highlighted and projecting out what the modeled
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#Bitcoin power law Scale coefficient and r2 update The power law has become measurably more accurate even since the last cycle peak! - - - This set of plots is showing both since the peak in November 2021. The r2, as we've seen, has been trending upward for years. Since
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We have not peaked yet. We have not even begun to heat up yet. #BTC - - - Price: $58,304 Decay Channel Oscillator: 19.26% 🔥
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V2 of the #Bitcoin Decay Channel™ - Updates and Insights 🧵 . . . 1/ Since sharing V1 last week, the major developments have been: 1. Updated channel Beautiful, ain’t it? Using all hourly data now and going forward. Correctly translated the exponential decay so that it
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V2 of the #bitcoin     Decay Channel in the works – with VERY important corrections and improvements – coming at you ca. next week. Until then, most IMPORTANT note: the exponential decay (TOP of the channel) does NOT crash or intersect with the support line (power law). The
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#Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator - Friday, 8/16/24 Still loading and currently at..................................19.2% Current price: $58,108 - - - The Decay Channel Oscillator gives us a very clear perspective on where we are relative to a 'full bull run' and its peak,
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The Power Law that describes #Bitcoin is becoming more difficult to deny as time goes on. . . . If you had thought of modeling Bitcoin's price in time as a power law (y = a * x^b) before 2015, you either: A) would have probably guessed the scale coefficient wrong (that's the
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#Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator - Wednesday, 8/14/24 Still loading, currently at.......................................20.98% Price: $59,799.67 - - - Keep calm and #HODL on! 📈
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#Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator - Friday, 8/9/24 Still loading and currently at................................22.2% Price: $60,799 - - - Nice rise from 15.8% on Monday! Enjoy the weekend my friends, and keep following for our march towards liftoff from the power law support
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Liquidity - Is it correlated with #Bitcoin price? . . . The answer is yes, for the bull runs. I analyzed the timing of liquidity cycles by pulling yield spread data from FRED (interest rate difference between 10-year and 2-year bonds). I took the 4-month moving average of
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Decay Channel Oscillator - July 31, 2024 - - - #Bitcoin is loading and currently at..............28.3% - - - Follow along for regular updates on this oscillator and more Bitcoin research and analysis. -SW
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#Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator - Monday, 8/26/24 Still loading and currently at...................................24% Current Price: $63,486 - - - The oscillator saw a 4% jump since Friday's action! We may not know precisely when the actual bull run will begin - but
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#Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator - Wednesday, 8/28/24 Still loading and currently at..................................19.4% Current price: $58,900
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#Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator - Wednesday, 8/21/24 Still loading and currently at.................................20.3% Current price: $59,485 - - - See you in the power law Brain Trust spaces today with @dotkrueger @Giovann35084111 @apsk32 @Sina_21st @1basemoney
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#Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator October 1st, 2024 Still loading and currently at................................21.46% Current price: $62,586.81 - - - Happy UPtober! Time to get your space suit on 🚀
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Feels like a great day to update... The #Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator September 19th, 2024 - - - Still loading and currently at........................... 22.6% Current price: $63,196.21 - - - Are we seeing the beginning of a steady climb to the model's ceiling? 📈📈📈
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#Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator September 28th, 2024 - - - Still loading and currently at..............................24.5% Current price: $65,529.57 - - - Long way to go to the top! Goodbye, 60k.
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6/ Conclusion My intention here is to a) communicate why it is important to gauge expectations for Bitcoin’s future value while being as data-driven and conservative as possible, and b) communicate that this is not necessarily less bullish, unless perhaps your only timeline of
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4/ c) The trend is still very bullish. While some critics of the power law are already seemingly dissatisfied with the prospects of a time^6 power relationship, this may strike those same people as being even less bullish. But this does not indicate anything new or different
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Confirmed, barrels of oil follow a power law in time when priced in #bitcoin . 🛢️⚡️ . . . Using daily WTI oil futures data, we see that barrels of oil priced in BTC follow a power law having a power of 5.9, and an excellent fit (R2 = 0.96). In fact, as opposed to pricing in USD
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@saylor Importantly, BTC is *not* in a bubble, nor overvalued $66k BTC today is 1.5% below fair value, which is $67k according to median / 50th percentile power law model.
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On many millennial's minds is the question: "When will I be able to buy a decent home?" There's a wide range of local economic and market factors for real estate, but in most U.S. locations, $1M represents a decent piece of real estate. . . . Assuming the average trend of the
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As the great @maxkeiser says, "It's all going to zero against #Bitcoin ."
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#Bitcoin eats everything up, in a predictable fashion. . . . Gold - the stable hedge against inflation, precious metal commodity Oil - the world's most historically critical raw material and energy commodity S&P500 - leading stock market index covering the equities category
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@dotkrueger Pre / rich
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Dear X user: Give ChatGPT these two equations, ask it to create a chart, and you've formed your Decay Channel! 🚫 Open Channel 🚫 Narrowing Channel ✅️ Decay Channel - - - PS- Play with log-scaling the x and y axes for perspective!
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Still view.
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@BittelJulien Very interested in this! Very nice. Comparing with mine, they both look excellent at catching tops. This the Decay Channel Oscillator
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Full still view.
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Two ways to form a "channel" for #bitcoin price path in log-log space 1. standard (OLS) regression, with its residuals giving percentile lines (OPEN channel) 2. quantile regression, directly showing power law percentile lines with different slopes (NARROWING channel) #powerlaw
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@theionicXBT Interesting...
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Still view.
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@Vivek4real_ Go to @apsk32 's profile to see this and some of the absolute best BTC visualizations.
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Wow, thanks to all 5,000 following! I hope this is as fun for you as it is for me. Many more great things to come! Let's keep following the data, and be sure to tune in to The Best Bitcoin Data Show- watch for new Episodes streaming on X and YT! -SW @TheRealPlanC @Sina_21st
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HODLers, especially those who understand the power law, understand what a gift it is to have a short term down trend right now. Stack harder and take the long view. #Bitcoin
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Reposting this from back in June. Plotting the quantile regressions for the 1st, 5th - 95th, and 99th quantiles - you get a nice "spectrum" of fitted lines in log-log space. Analyzing further the scale coefficient (b) (the power law slope) and the pseudo-r2 (goodness of fit of
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Full historical oscillator animation:
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@OwenBenjamin Leave it to you to make connection to nearly anything under the sun to sodomy.
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Updated 2025 cycle top range estimates coming... check out tonight's Spaces, and should be posting updates on that soon! Thanks for reading, please share if you are enjoying tracking this project and find it valuable! 🙏
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Being in the bitcoin analysis world for a bit (100+ hours), you start seeing $100k bitcoin as absurdly obvious. Therefore, you catch yourself wondering how bitcoin is still under $100k, then you remember that still, few understand.
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2/ Things you’ll notice from The Decay Channel: a) The exponential decay of the cycle tops is hard to ignore, and it shows the upper bound intersecting the power law support in 2031 (assuming you use all historical data; some argue to leave out outliers from 2010, but this is
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5/ The cycle tops (as residuals from power law support) have: An extremely good exponential fit of r^2 ~0.999 Small sample size (n = 4) So, while there are very few data points, this is what we have. And it also seems uncanny that the fit would be this precise, even though it
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In case you haven't noticed, I'm on semi-hiatus from X BTC analysis, and will continue to be probably through the month of September. Have been dealing with a few challenges out in the real world, but expect everything to be resolved soon, and to get back at it with new data,
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Scenario: - - - September 2024: FED drops interest rates 🖨 January 2025: T10Y2Y Yield Spread ramps up 📈 March 2025 (60 days later): #Bitcoin really starts heating up 🔥 November 2025: Looking for our massive 2025 bull run peak 📈💵 - - - Tale as old as time. Green is
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3/ b) The upper bound of the channel is not a power law! In many published channels (including some from my own posts!) the upper bound on the price channel has been previously plotted as a straight line in log-log space (see: Bitbo for example); this is a mistake, as the shape
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Full update zoomed out.
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Log-log look
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#Bitcoin Fun fact: Today, there are almost exactly the same number of M2 cents (hundredths of a dollar) in circulation as the total number of Satoshis that will ever exist 21 million bitcoins = 2.1 quadrillion Sats 21 trillion USD (M2) = 2.1 quadrillion cents
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Who's ready for the Best Bitcoin Data Show Episode 4 tomorrow? @Sina_21st @TheRealPlanC Join us at 9am PST here and on the above accounts live on X! We're off 58k, we might even be off of 62k now... you won't want to miss it!
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I'm getting to the point in this cycle where I'm looking forward to the crash to ~80k after this peak about as much as the peak itself 😎
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"The demonetization of silver had a significantly negative effect on the nations that were using it as a monetary standard at the time. India witnessed a continuous devaluation of its rupee compared to gold-based European countries... ...the history of China and India, and their
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Linear-linear look
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Trump's speech at Bitcoin 2024: Expectation: exponential Reality: power law Hence the apparent disappointment. ...if you know, you know. #bitcoin #powerlaw
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For those who are developing their intuition for looking at nonlinear data in log-linear or log-log space as opposed to linear-linear space, did you know you can also show #bitcoin as following a straight line with linear time? . . . To do this, rather than transforming the
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@dotkrueger That was great fun and love discussing with these other big brains, thanks so much @dotkrueger . More on the Decay Channel for those interested: Thanks @TheRealPlanC @Giovann35084111 @apsk32 @Sina_21st
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V2 of the #Bitcoin Decay Channel™ - Updates and Insights 🧵 . . . 1/ Since sharing V1 last week, the major developments have been: 1. Updated channel Beautiful, ain’t it? Using all hourly data now and going forward. Correctly translated the exponential decay so that it
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I'm a perfectionist. The full screen blemish at the top of the first plot bothers me a lot- any feedback from viewers as to whether I should just delete this and post a full, clean version of this post? Thanks BTC X community! 🙏🏻
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The Best Bitcoin Data Show, first episode is out! Have to check this out- this will be a regular show featuring @Sina_21st @TheRealPlanC and myself at some point (hopefully starting next week). Make sure to start tuning in and follow for gold nuggets from the Bitcoin quant
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You get bitcoin at the price you deserve- if you get it today, that happens to be precisely what it's worth! ~$67k = Fair Value by 50th percentile power law regression
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2/ The Amazing Fit of 4 Cycle Tops (Residuals) One of the key observations that kicked off this work and development was that the very highest data point for each cycle (in terms of deviation from the power law support line, a.k.a. ratio residuals), when plotted by themselves
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Cool shout-out from Money Rules on YouTube! A very good #bitcoin channel to subscribe to! #decaychannel
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HISTORY Is About To Be Made, If This Chart Is Correct You Are ALL...

History might not always repeat...but it sure as heck rhymes. Looking back at past bull runs, it looks like Bitcoin might be setting it self up for one of th...

www.youtube.com
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I'm sorry, but this is just about ready to LAUNCH.
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2024 zoomed still view.
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Wrapping up Episode 3 now of the Best Bitcoin Data Show! Give it a watch here: Featuring @1basemoney !
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Best Bitcoin Data Show Episode 03
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Don't forget to catch The Best Bitcoin Data Show - LIVE here on my X account as well as @TheRealPlanC and @Sina_21st 's accounts. It will be our 3rd episode, and we'll be having our first special guest who you likely know and love... Tune in at 9am PST today (Saturday Oct 12th)
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More updates to the Decay Channel and Oscillator coming soon, with some comparative analyses; stay tuned! Specific regression functions can make a difference!
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Saylor's speech, overall, brings one concept in thermodynamics to mind for me: Bitcoin, similar to ordered and living structures in nature, minimizes its free energy by driving up entropy in its surrounding environment as it continually consumes more energy through PoW
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Comparison of the USD and barrels of oil: USD in time power law: b = 5.7, R2 = 0.954 USD is nearly right on trend (or 'fair value'), while oil is clearly below trend. @Giovann35084111 @dotkrueger @TheRealPlanC
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
23 days
If you weren't able to catch it yesterday, be sure to head to YouTube through the link below to watch the 2nd episode of "The Best Bitcoin Data Show," featuring some of the best bitcoin analysts in the space (and also myself!): @TheRealPlanC @Sina_21st
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Best Bitcoin Data Show – E02 – Bitcoin Quantile Regression #bitcoin...

PlanC and Sminston join 21st Capital for an analysis of bitcoin price trajectory based on the Power Law and Quantile Regression models.A must-watch for anyon...

www.youtube.com
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
4 months
Comparison with the Halvings and U.S. Presidential Elections: Note: there was not a US Pres Election or Halving prior to the 2011 bull run; but there was a liquidity cycle.
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
3 months
2024-2025 Close-up
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
2 months
Still view, 2024 zoom:
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
2 months
Still view.
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
9 days
Are you getting the Best Bitcoin Data? - - - Watch our latest episode right here 👇 from this past Tuesday, where we cover the current BTC pump, tops/bottoms probabilities, and the topic of MSTR valuation of current controversy: It's the "Best Bitcoin Data Show, Baby!" [working
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
3 months
3/ Can the First 3 Cycles Predict the 4th?? Might need to zoom in on this a bit. Here, I fit the top data points from the 1st 3 cycles (2011, 2013, 2017) to see how well they would have predicted the top in 2021. The dashed line is the simulated projection out to 2021; the red
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@sminston_with
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@sminston_with
2 months
Still view, full:
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
24 days
Sharing these two other graphs we discussed in the Best Bitcoin Data Show Ep.2 today - showing the decay and stabilization of the predicted Nov 1st, 2025 price using the highest percentile power law regression models (80th, 90th, 95th, 98th, 99th, 99.5th, 99.8th, and 99.9th).
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
3 months
Getting settled into the evening and feeling deeply grateful for the amazing people I've encountered recently on X, including all of you 1000+ followers of mine. I'm humbled and excited for the future here on X – so much to discover still about #Bitcoin     . See you all along
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
7 days
Many of us who analyze the power law in Bitcoin on the regular come to a similar ballpark figure for this cycle top - $220,000. There's a reason they call @maxkeiser the high priest. You looking at the power law, Max?
@maxkeiser
Max Keiser
@maxkeiser
7 days
Max Keiser Predicts Bitcoin’s Astronomical Rise To $220,000 “Very Soon” Amid BTC’s Intensifying Bullish Momentum via @ZyCrypto
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
2 months
Nice article written by the OG @Giovann35084111 👍🏻 Features my viral "4 major assets devalued by BTC" chart! 😀
@Giovann35084111
BTC_POWER_LAW / PlanG
@Giovann35084111
2 months
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@sminston_with
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3 months
Animation with feelings of triumphalism:
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2 months
Full still view.
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@sminston_with
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@sminston_with
26 days
Let's go to ---💯---
@sminston_with
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@sminston_with
27 days
#Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator September 28th, 2024 - - - Still loading and currently at..............................24.5% Current price: $65,529.57 - - - Long way to go to the top! Goodbye, 60k.
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
2 months
One caveat for those reading- this is using the .05 quantile regression for all the data, while the max residuals being fit are just the data up to 2017- I don't expect a massive change, but the update with the support line cutoff between 2017-2021 will be coming up next 🙏🏻
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@sminston_with
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9 days
Incredible to see such positive feedback in the YouTube comments for the Best Bitcoin Data Show!! Thanks to all who watch and support!! #BBDS @Sina_21st @TheRealPlanC
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
11 days
Turns out if BTC hits this price next year - so will MSTR! Parity point = $257,677 [I don't think this will happen]
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
3 months
@panpanXBT
@slickwilly2000
slickwilly2000
@slickwilly2000
5 months
@apsk32 I just plotted the data until 2040 and there is also an intersection between the upper bound and the support-line (red). This happens in February 2032. I agree with you, I also don't trust the top fit that much.
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
22 days
@TheRealPlanC Here we go 🙌🏻 Clear way to represent "where the BTC data tends to be" - median is king in this case! Especially considering distribution of residuals. Excellent form, C! Reposted ✔️
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@sminston_with
Sminston With
@sminston_with
3 months
Why I think it's reasonable Trump didn't go 100% energy and focus into "the bitcoin vote" in this campaign: >1 Bitcoin: Approximately 0.07% of the voting-age population in the US. >0.33 Bitcoin: Approximately 0.12% of the voting-age population in the US. >0.1 Bitcoin:
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