Sam Korus @skorusARK Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

How it started How it’s going

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 years

From $90 billion to $1.2 trillion committed to electric vehicles in just four years.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 years

It wouldn't surprise me if Amazon added more robots than people at some point within the next few years.

Brett Winton

@wintonARK

2 years

The robotics inflection is quite evident reading through Amazon’s robotics posts from just the past few months.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

Just started reading Engines That Move Markets ...and by reading I mean looking at the pictures.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

The electric vehicle share gain continues.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 years

The other crazy stat is that over 3 million people applied to work at Tesla in 2021 and Tesla added ~28,500 people in 2021. Probably an interesting opportunity to create an education pipeline.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

5 years

Tesla's global market share nearly doubled since this time last year.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 years

Seems like there should be terminology introduced to differentiate between recalls and software updates. Because you know, one requires something to be recalled and the other doesn't.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

I wonder what happens to railways when autonomous electric trucks start competing on price per ton-mile...

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

1/Tesla said it believes the Model Y can become the best-selling vehicle globally in ~2022. Comparing to 2019, that would mean ~1.5 million units. Here's how the Model Y ramp looks compared to the Model 3 ramp so far.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

For everyone looking to compare the Tesla and Ford Model T ramp. Pulling data from Tesla website and Wikipedia for Ford.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

Space Junk by Altitude

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

1/Tesla won over California early. In 2020 it seems to have started winning over the rest of the US.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

Factories build cars, Tesla builds factories

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

1/ I think Tesla just announced its plans for a 400 mile range $25,000 electric vehicle. If delivered in 2023 this would put Tesla ~3 years ahead of our original cost curve.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

1/ Tesla is creating and killing the electric vehicle competition. Tesla’s battery day affirms Wright’s Law and spells trouble for the competition.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

Renewable first in Europe! In the first half of 2020, renewables generated 40% of the EU-27’s electricity, whereas fossil fuels generated 34%.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 years

A nice look at EV adoption by country

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

1 year

The gov is spending 3x to 22x the cost of Starlink to connect rural locations to broadband. For context Starlink hardware is $599.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

1/ Why does Musk keep hinting at his excitement for an electric jet? In the past he has said that electric flight starts to get interesting once you hit 400wh/kg

Whole Mars Catalog

@WholeMarsBlog

4 years

So check out this company Ampirus. They make Silicon Nanowire technology. Look where they moved their headquarters to. Right next to Tesla’s Kato road facility. Uhhhhhh

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 years

SpaceX Bar and Grill in Kenya. They serve a great satellite dish.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

Will people buy EVs with gas prices low? 1 People don't typically do total cost of ownership calcs 2 If they did, more people would be buying EVs 3 Gas prices are low, but a big part of tco is residual value. The coming collapse in used gas car value will far offset gas savings.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

Tesla raises car prices by 9 gas station fill-ups.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

What does the difficulty curve look like for scaling manufacturing? Prototype easy 1-100 fairly easy 100-1,000 hard 1,000-10,000 harder 10,000-100,000 very hard 100,000-1,000,000 very hard 1,000,000-10,000,000 easier?

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

This is from a 2014 paper. LFP battery cells were priced above NMC. Battery volume went to NMC. Now the opposite is true and it wouldn't be surprising to see incremental volume come from LFP.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

SpaceX's rate of improvement🚀🚀🚀

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

5 years

Well, this is embarrassing. #Tesla

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

1/ @wintonARK , @yassineARK , and I just posted an incremental update to ARK's open-source Solar+Battery+Bitcoin mining model, which now allows one to test how the system would have performed in historic Bitcoin bull and bear markets.

GitHub - ARKInvest/SolarBatteryBitcoin

Contribute to ARKInvest/SolarBatteryBitcoin development by creating an account on GitHub.

github.com

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

GM Hummer EV tri-motor is $30,000 more expensive than the equivalent Cybertruck and has 200 miles less range.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

Over 10 million unfilled jobs. Automation and education are solutions and there is rapid innovation happening in both.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 years

US new vehicle market share change since 2020:

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

Landed. Reusable Falcon 9 lowered launch costs by an order of magnitude. Reusable Starship could lower launch costs by another 10-100x.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

6 months

Updated.

Sam Korus

@skorusARK

6 months

For those who want it in meme form:

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

1/Some context for the number of EV companies emerging. In the early 1900s when gas cars were first gaining share there was a boom in the number of car companies, which was quickly followed by consolidation.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

1 year

It seems a charging standard for North America has been established: GM joins Ford in adopting Tesla's charging standard.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

One of these things is not like the other

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

10 months

1/A terrible piece of reporting in the WSJ imo. This is the headline and chart above the start of the article text:

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

A lot of people complaining about Tesla product announcements. Tesla said they may announce new factories this year. That’s one of the most important products of all. The factory is the product. And in time the robot may be part of the factory.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

Making a vehicle that has no paint that people want to buy is an underrated innovation.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

Slowly but surely the alien dreadnaught takes shape If I had to guess, the cybertruck and likely "cyber" line of vehicles will take this beyond what people imagine possible. PAINting vehicles is a pain. Also, Model Y is 5th iteration. Most competitors are at V1. Lots to learn

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

5 years

At peak horse, farm draft animals consumed the output of ~22% of all cropland.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

It took Amazon 7 years to deploy its first 200,000 robots. It took 2 years to deploy the next 150,000

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 years

One way to reduce open tabs: Tweet out link you know you'll eventually want to look at. FCC applications to launch and operate satellites: ...or if anyone has gone through and has a more updated list than this:

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

I think VW has the right strategy, but this is the difference between exponential and linear thinking.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

1 year

2017: Toyota to have solid state batteries in EVs by 2022 2023: Toyota to have solid state batteries in EVs by 2027

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

Ah yes, the staple of the battery company pitch deck. It's good to have so many people working on different approaches to improve cells. QuantumScape investor presentation here:

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

Very simply, Tesla wants to become the best manufacturer in the world and, for the most part, traditional automakers don't want to become the best EV makers in the world. That seems to sum up a lot of recent EV news, but people don't believe either part.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

5 years

The EV market has grown over 11X since 2013 and Tesla has pretty much maintained its market share.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

Tesla's rate of innovation is pretty amazing. The competition makes compromises to hit a certain price point and then is stuck there until 3-4 years later when they come out with a new car. Tesla is a moving target.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

6 years

Why VCs are willing to dump money into electric scooter companies: Charge $1.63 per mile, but it only costs $0.32 per mile. If you think people love electric scooters now, wait until the price drops 5-10x as the market gets flooded.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

1/GAO study finds that 2-3 million U.S. small businesses lack access to broadband. "A Vermont inn and spa owner said she pays $78 a month for a 10 Mbps download speed, and she’d have to shell out $335 a month to upgrade to a plan with a 40 Mbps download speed." 📡🛰️👀

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

Early adoption and FUD often go hand in hand. It's amazing how much progress has been made and how early it is.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

China passenger auto sales were up 4.4% to 20.1 million units in 2021, but that headline is a bit deceiving. Gas powered car sales were actually down roughly 4% while, battery electric vehicle sales were up ~145%.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

5 years

Maybe Porsche should have built the Taycan in a "tent"

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

15/ The crazy part of Battery Day isn't what was announced. It's that people still don't believe it's possible. Going to discuss this at ARK's brainstorm tomorrow and add more thoughts in this weeks newsletter. Questions and critiques have been awesome so keep them coming!

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

This is what gaining market share looks like.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

Imagine having to wait ~4 years to release a better car. Tesla's most recent Model 3 update separates it from the pack even more.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 years

Tesla's margins, superior drivetrain efficiency and low battery costs should make it one of the best positioned to weather any cyclical slowdown for autos. As it has done in the past, it can be the first to lower prices, which puts pressure on other automakers.

Tasha Keeney

@TashaARK

2 years

Removing autonomous driving & any form of ride-hail, which we believe will drive >60% of Tesla's value over the next 5 years, our 2026 price target would become roughly $500/share (post split) based on EVs alone, more than a 4X increase from current price.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

And this is an interesting way of looking at the world: population by latitude. Interesting for both satellite internet and solar.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

1/ You're a car maker. You don't believe 100% in EVs. You eventually realize batteries are a limiting factor. You sign a fixed price "long-term" contract for supply. It's not enough to meet demand and you don't realize the benefit of declining battery costs. It's now 2025. 🤷‍♂️

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

7 months

1/Here's a thread to send to people when they quote the media saying there is an EV slowdown. Add your comments/takes so it can be a useful resource. Why is the media claiming an EV slowdown? It's a case of missing the forrest for the trees.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

1 year

I think it's a good sign for demand when a vehicle that's not for sale surpasses search demand for one of the best selling cars in the world.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

1 year

Tesla makes one production Cybertruck and Ford cuts prices by $10,000.

Car Dealership Guy

@GuyDealership

1 year

UPDATE:

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 years

A look at the EV scaling so far.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

Prediction: If you don't have the drivetrain efficiency to produce a vehicle with acceptable range using lithium iron phosphate batteries, you're going to have a bad time.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

Tesla maintained market share as the battery electric vehicle market grew 33% year over year. (technically they grew market share, but rounding)

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 months

Jensen said it: No task beneath you. How can Optimus take over the world? Start by going around and empty trashcans into bigger trashcans then empty those trashcans into the dumpster.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

5 years

1/ If you take the average fatalities per vehicle since autopilot was introduced. Fatalities are ~2.5 times less likely if people are driving Teslas compared to the US average. And that's not just the driver...

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

GitHub - ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model: An excerpt from our financial valuation model...

An excerpt from our financial valuation model of Tesla - ARKInvest/ARK-Invest-Tesla-Valuation-Model

github.com

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

The Consumer Reports review of the Tesla yoke reminds me a lot of the first reviews of Apple's iPhone keyboard.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 years

1/The EV share gain for the first half of this year in context.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

2/When China was handing out money to EV companies there was a boom of ~500 companies. Of those, "just 11 succeeded in raising funds last year (2019)"

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

Legendary

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 years

A brief summary of manufacturing history: "It can't be done." "That's impossible!" It gets done. Repeat.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

5 years

6 years after the iPhone launched, competitors caught up. Car makers haven't even caught up with the 2012 #Tesla Model S.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

5 years

Detailed comparison coming, but the craziest part of the Ford F150 is that is costs an extra $7,015 for adaptive cruise control. It costs $7,000 to add the full self driving option to the Cybertruck. Tesla's option also gets updates to improve over time.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 years

My summary of Tesla’s Investor Day: No Flash, All Substance …more to come in this week’s newsletter after some brainstorming. Feel free to comment your takes below.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

Used car price index at an all-time high, but interesting to note that used vehicle sales were down 13% year-over-year in September.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

5 years

Read how ARK is thinking about Tesla for the next 5 years:

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

SpaceX makes falcon 1, realizes not a sustainable market and makes falcon 9. 10+ years later every small rocket company says small rockets are a sustainable market. Rocket Labs goes public and decides to build a falcon 9 competitor. 🤔

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

6 months

Kind of crazy that we may be about to create AGI without ever really understanding how the brain works.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

2 months

1/Put together a Wright's Law Curve for electricity in the US from 1893-2021: WW2 temporarily paused electricity price declines. But what happened in 1974?

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

2/ Tesla: Tell fleet to flag that specific edge case. Train on that real world data set. Validate with million car global fleet. Implement.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

SpaceX is approaching the point of operating 50% of the active satellites orbiting Earth.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

7 months

@AlecStapp Warhol would be proud

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

10 months

"Volkswagen is returning to physical buttons instead of touch controls" Just like all smartphones went back to physical touchpads.

Volkswagen is returning to physical buttons instead of touch controls

Volkswagen is bringing back physical buttons to future cars, in response to customer feedback.

www.engadget.com

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

10 months

Four years ago Tesla delivered ~500,000 units in the entire year. They just made around that many in a single quarter.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

7 months

A humanoid robot is less than a tenth the weight of a car, can the manufacturing ramp be 10x that of a vehicle? Does that even matter? Seems like the constraint is going to be software capability not manufacturing capability.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

RIP coal🪦

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

5 years

The Porsche Taycan is pretty good, but it still trails the 7 year old Tesla Model S. The Model S has almost 100 miles of extra range. And for the price of a Taycan, you can buy the flagship Model S and a performance Model 3.😳

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

I wonder what this chart is going to look like for 2021. Slowly, Then All at Once; The EV Market Share Story

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

BEV sales up 33% in 2020, total auto sales down ~15%.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

ARK’s Big Ideas 2021 is here:

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

4 years

Hey @nikolatrevor as opposed to grandstanding, happy to have a discussion. The numbers I used were from your investor presentation and Tesla's semi presentation.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

ARK created an electric vehicle performance index that considers a vehicle’s range, implied drivetrain efficiency, and overall cost. 1. The median EV in 2021 is in line with Tesla’s 2018 Model 3. 2. EVs should continue to improve.

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

1 year

The Model Y is the best selling car in the world for Q1. And when the Cybertruck makes the headlines it can garner more search volume than the Model Y and from geographies that are more prone to truck purchases. What will demand for Cybertruck be?

What Will Demand Be For The Cybertruck?

In ARK’s view, the low expectations for Tesla’s Cybertruck are based on a blind spot. Today, most automakers fund the development and...

www.ark-invest.com

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

"the mining facility is designed to be a proof of concept for 100% renewable energy bitcoin mining at scale" In reality I think it will also prove 100% renewable energy requires bitcoin mining at scale.

Tesla, Block and Blockstream team up to mine bitcoin off solar power in Texas

Blockstream and Jack Dorsey's Block are breaking ground on a solar- and battery-powered bitcoin mine in Texas using solar and storage technology from Tesla.

www.cnbc.com

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

3 years

We should be much more worried about population collapse

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Sam Korus

@skorusARK

3 years

SpaceX stopped hundreds of millions of dollars from being wasted on ballooning launch costs and paved the way for a new space age defined by declining cost curves.

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