Sabrina Khanniche @skhanniche Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@TrapBasquiat

@MintMurray4

@TWEliteOfficial

@bokeplokalmalam

@rxbbie_eth

@w_hdwh

@BWattsTV

@ItsyagirlGoromi

@lullaFangirl

@AStateFB_Rec

@sandy77471079

@Pelpa_jcr

@Celinda3129

@angela_x_2024

@nyaasayslatt

@katierosman

@bokeplokalmalam

@RedditForBernie

@ookaminami

@BinorRaja

@shirokito

@jandakembangstw

@hoshino_laplace

@Helloboys23

@MLBRBI

@Jos94745695

@thameralkhadra

@lcholbrook27

@thxx_6u6o

@th34lpha

@DSwicked11

@AndreaBoniforti

@PillarsPaul

@salihaaaadull

@Raix_L

@MarraForCouncil

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

10 months

#Eurozone weak data have fuelled a dovish ECB narrative with 2 rate cuts almost fully priced in April. After falling orders, #Germany industrial production further down (14%<trend) showing a carryover of 1,3% Q/Q in Q4, prolonging the sector recession yet sentiment bottomed.

3

23

99

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone industrial production held up pretty well late 2022 despite weak demand exceeding pre-crisis level by nearly 3% amid easing supply bottlenecks & > average backlog of orders (output drop in December led by cold weather).

4

20

79

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

9 months

#Eurozone sentiment suggests that we past the worst in terms of growth with the ESI & PMI recovering from the lows reached last October pointing to flat growth in Q4 and slowly recovering over the course of the year. Cost pressures remain weak but have increased among firms.

4

21

73

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

Eurozone disinflation is underway. PPI fall to 1% Y/Y, the lowest level since January 2021 in line with signal sent by manufacturing surveys price pressures amid easing supply bottlenecks & declining input prices suggesting that easing momentum in good prices should continue.

0

28

64

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

Strong and effective #ECB monetary policy transmission through the bank credit channel. #Eurozone credit growth peaked last September and lost further momentum showing the weakest growth Y/Y since 2015 led by corporates driven by both short & medium-term maturities.

6

21

67

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

8 months

Effective monetary policy transmission yet signs that the pass through is peaking.Banks tightened their credit standards to the private sector at a weaker pace, expect demand from firms & for house purchases to rise for the 1st time since 2022. Credit drag on growth should reduce

3

13

65

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

10 months

Below trend #Eurozone retail sales with negative carryover in Q4 after 2 Q/Q of contraction but 1st sign of improvement.Peaking financing conditions,lower uncertainty to lower precautionary savings &positive real wage to be supportive (real disposable income mostly led by labor).

2

20

60

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

#Eurozone exports exceed pre-pandemic level by 8% and are back to trend. Strong foreign demand should support industrial production that remains so far below capacity.

4

19

60

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

Eurozone retail sales declined further below trend showing a negative carryover in Q1 led by Germany. The use of excess savings has limited the fall in consumption with countries showing overall solid carry over.

1

13

44

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

In the Eurozone, further evidence of the monetary policy transmission to credit before the current banking stress and act as the main drag on activity. Credit growth peaked last September showing much weaker momentum led by both households & corporates.

4

10

42

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

11 months

#Eurozone data show signs of weak economic activity with real retail sales declining further below pre-pandemic trend & contracting in Q3. Positive real wage growth is an upside risk on consumer spending & inflation with ECB consumer expectations at 2.5% in the 3Y ahead.

1

8

37

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

#Eurozone retail sales continued losing momentum being 1.7% above pre-pandemic level (-3.6% Y/Y) amid real income losses with the absorption of excess savings compensating somewhat for the inflation shock.

2

14

32

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone monetary data thread. M3 eased in Dec to 4.1% (lowest since Jan 2019). The QE contribution is fading out rapidly & private credit has recently initiated the same trend although remaining at a high level pointing to tighter monetary policy to cause further weakness.

1

14

29

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone PMIs point to a less negative outlook with better activity components (both orders & output). New orders to inventories have bottomed up in October. Price pressures eased further amid easing input prices & supply bottlenecks (shortest delivery times since early 2020).

2

10

30

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

Better supply situation continues supporting #Germany auto production up for the 4th running month. Delivery times shortened indeed further to the lowest level since late 2020. Vehicle output remains so far well below capacity (39% < trend).

0

9

28

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

#Eurozone dependence to #Russia is sizeable. Finland, Austria & Germany import most of their gas from Russia. Related to energy imports share, Germany & Italy are the most at risk.Amid very low gas storage levels, energy sanctions are missing for fear to worsen the energy crisis.

0

13

27

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

#Eurozone credit impulse turned positive in Q4 2021 for the first time in a year thanks to corporates while households credit impulse contracted for the first time since Q1 2021 as suggested by #ECB BLS (showing a net increase in loan demand in Q4 by NFC conversely to mortgages).

0

9

27

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Strong #Eurozone growth in Q2 led by domestic demand. Households consumption in the high inflation environment was somewhat resilient. Overall, growth remains below trend yet >pre crisis level (the case for all countries but Spain). Greece is ahead of its peers.

2

13

27

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

#Eurozone retail sales declined further showing a negative carry-over in Q3 with consumers drawing down their excess savings moving from overnight to term deposits amid higher interest rates and should be less supportive to consumer spending going forward.

0

8

26

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone credit impulse decelerated early Q3 in line with Q2 2022 ECB bank lending survey pointing to much weaker credit growth dynamics & domestic demand (high uncertainty & less accommodative monetary policy). Corporates credit eased & remains driven by working capital needs.

0

9

26

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone retail sales declined for the first time in 4 months (negative carry-over in Q2) amid surging inflation & mostly led by #Germany .

1

8

25

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Solid #Eurozone credit dynamics led by corporates showing higher demand for working capital to cope with higher input costs & some frontloading in the rising rates environment. Survey ( @ecb BLS) points to falling credit growth & demand with banks tightening credit conditions.

0

12

23

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone trade deficit stopped deteriorating yet remains close to an all-time high led by nominal imports (44% > trend amid still high energy bills but early signs of lower demand). Foreign demand remains supportive with exports standing well above pre-crisis & trend level.

1

8

23

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone consumer sentiment dropped to its lowest level since Covid-19 shock (more than 1 standard deviation below mean). #Germany & #Netherlands consumers were the most hit.

2

11

22

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Widening gap between #Eurozone depressed sentiment pointing to a recession ahead & resilient industrial production (easing supply pressures). It exceeds pre-crisis level by 5% gaining momentum in Q2. #Germany industrial activity (more reliant on #Russia gas) lags its peers.

0

9

23

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone credit impulse gained momentum (strongest since Q2 20) thanks to corporates. It contrasts with @ecb bank lending survey pointing to weaker credit growth & domestic demand (credit conditions tightening amid high uncertainty & less accommodative monetary policy).

1

8

22

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

Germany industrial production rise contrasts with weak orders led by foreign demand & sentiment adding downside risk to growth. But, with serious shortages of supply, unfilled orders exceed trend by 10% & stock of orders is 7.4 months consistent with continuous production ahead.

2

11

22

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

#Eurozone CPI at the lowest since the #UkraineWar (-1.6pp to 6.9%Y/Y) led by a drop in energy (big base effect). Broad based decline across country with the strongest dip seen in the Netherlands, Latvia & Spain.

1

9

22

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone sentiment weakened further due to industry amid falling demand & consumer confidence close to the lowest in 2 years (more than 2 standard deviation < mean led by #Germany ).

0

11

21

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Solid #Eurozone GDP led by Spain & Italy driven by domestic demand while net exports was a drag (but France). Overall, growth <trend & < pre-crisis in Germany & Spain. Activity drag (-) & support (+): industrial activity (-), services (+), fiscal support (+) & excess savings (+).

0

9

22

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Strongest #Eurozone trade deficit on record led by nominal imports (40%> pre-pandemic level) reflecting higher energy bills. Energy imports from Russia surpassed December 2019 level by 90%.

1

7

22

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

Solid #Eurozone industrial production led by #Germany showing a strong carry over in Q1 (tailwind for Q1 GDP). Output is roughly 8% above pre-pandemic level with potential for further rise led by easing supply pressures (supply chain & energy supply) and backlog of orders.

1

9

20

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone credit impulse lost momentum early Q2 led by firms amid uncertainty caused by supply bottlenecks & war (positive contribution from working loans while investment plans slowed down) in line with #ECB BLS (lower supply & higher demand for short-term capital needs in Q2).

0

8

21

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

In #Germany , consumer confidence dropped to the lowest level on record (almost 5 standard deviation < mean) led by income expectations (lowest level ever) amid surging inflation caused by the #RussiaUkraineWar & supply disruptions reducing further consumers willingness to buy.

0

9

20

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Germany new orders lost further momentum amid weakening foreign demand (down from a peak of 21%> pre-pandemic level) with sentiment pointing to subdued foreign orders.

2

11

20

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone inflation may have peaked amid easing energy prices (explain close to 40% of the 10%Y/Y November print) and supply bottlenecks. Price pressures reflected in manufacturing surveys have pursued the downtrend from record high.

2

10

20

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone sentiment points to a mild recession amid easing price pressures. - Mood among firms has stopped worsening. Delivery times lenghtened further showing continued easing supply bottlenecks. - Less pessimistic consumers thanks to lower gas prices & fiscal support.

2

7

19

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

#Eurozone GDP is back to pre-crisis level. When compared with the two previous crisis, recovery has been the quickest (2 years) while the economic activity was most severely hit.

1

6

18

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone inflation has continued falling led by energy which explains 22% of the monthly rise (down from a peak of 60% at the start of the #UkraineRussiaWar ). Gas & electricity rose at the lowest Y/Y rate since Q4 2021).

1

2

19

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

6 years

In 🇮🇹Italy, manufacturing PMI in negative territory for the first time since August 2016 due to new export orders in contraction for the first time since December 12. Overall, bad for industrial activity in Q4 that already contributed negatively to growth in Q3.

1

22

18

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone consumer confidence remains close to an all-time low. Sentiment seems to exaggerate the decline in private consumption though. Yet, higher pressure on disposable income with gas prices spiralling to record high in September which darkens the consumer spending outlook.

3

9

18

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

Among the main 4 #Eurozone countries, #Germany industrial production is the most impacted by softer external demand (slower #China growth momentum) & supply bottlenecks (semi-conductor shortage keeps vehicle production well below capacity).

1

11

17

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

After a solid #Eurozone growth in H1, a contraction becomes more likely as suggested by sentiment. PMI activity components dropped to the lowest point since May 2020. Prices pressures decelerated strongly reaching the weakest point since early 2021, pointing to easing inflation.

1

10

19

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

#Germany industrial production strongly down in June showing a negative carry-over in Q3 remaining well <capacity consistent with the weaker signal from PMI & IFO (1.7 standard deviation<mean) pointing to manufacturing activity recession (>trend unfilled orders though).

0

5

18

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

In #France , trade deficit reached a historical high amid higher energy bills pushing nominal imports well above pre-crisis level (roughly 22% higher).

1

6

18

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone confidence indicators are recovering raising the chance to avoid a recession. Composite PMI stands in expansionary territory thanks to services. <50 manufacturing PMI but better activity components & easing price pressures amid reduced supply bottlenecks.

1

5

17

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

#Eurozone retail sales stopped declining with the absorption of savings limiting the fall of consumption. Uncertainty is a downside risk as it might push households to limit spending. Yet, the mood among consumers improved for the 3rd month in a row & was up 8pts Y/Y.

1

5

17

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

Gas storage is a hedge against potential supply disruptions amid acute geopolitical risk ( #RussiaUkraineConflict ). Storage capacity in the #EuropeanUnion is currently below the level seen at the same period the last 2 years and the long-term average.

1

3

17

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Further evidence of the Eurozone monetary policy tightening feeding through to the credit channel. New contraction in credit impulse (lowest since the GFC) as signalled by the @ECB BLS. Less negative though when adjusted from deposits (excess savings slow down the pass through).

1

5

16

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Most of #Russian gas is delivered to #Europe via #nordstream . Recently, supply via Ukraine, Yamal & Turkstream declined conversely to nordstream. Russia gas reduction to Germany, Italy & France raises the risk of gas flows being halted (prices up, energy rationing, growth down).

2

5

16

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Germany PPI peaked in August amid easing supply frictions & lower demand in line with firms sentiment signalling further decline ahead (delivery times lengthened further to the highest level since August 2020).

1

4

17

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone prices reached a new high reinforcing the case for a 75bps rate hike: -led by energy yet all components rose to record high -solid demand for travel & leisure services post Covid restrictions boosted core CPI So far no de-anchoring of medium-term inflation expectations.

0

7

16

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Credit conditions tightened for #Eurozone firms in Q1 2022. Banks expect the tightest conditions since Q3 20 amid high uncertainty caused by #RussianInvasion & less accommodative monetary policy. Firms demand mainly led by working capital (supply bottlenecks) & fixed investment.

0

9

15

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

In the Eurozone, resilient industrial production amid easing supply bottlenecks. Slightly negative carry-over in Q4. Europe gas storages are now at 82% of full capacity. With mild weather, the risk of energy rationing & industry shutdown has diminished.

1

8

15

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

Stronger PMI activity components & easing price pressures are positive for #Eurozone growth & inflationary pressures containment. Improving new orders to inventories ratio points to higher industrial production ahead (ended 2021 being 3.5% > pre-crisis level).

1

8

15

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Germany industrial production < capacity led by the auto sector yet rebounded amid easing supply frictions. Reduced supply/demand gap points to diminishing prices pressures. Surveys point to depressed activity while orders held up pretty well led by foreign demand (9%> Dec 19).

0

8

16

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone industrial production gained momentum in Q3 amid easing supply bottlenecks. Output exceeds pre-crisis level in #Italy and #Spain yet remains below capacity in the main 4 #Eurozone countries led by #Germany .

1

7

16

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

Eurozone PMI shows a worsening in manufacturing activity (lowest since May 2020 led by activity components & Germany) & loosing services activity momentum early Q3 led by France (should continue as it lags manufacturing) providing an evidence of the monetary policy transmission.

1

11

15

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Resilient Eurozone industrial output early 2023 (6%> pre-pandemic level) with positive carryover as backlog of orders books & easing supply constraints continue to support production. Sentiment points to better underlying growth (neutral z score after fear of recession in Q4).

2

3

15

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

Amid #UkraineConflict , what are the #Eurozone linkages with Russia? - High gas dependence. Europe is a net importer of gas with Russia being the main supplier (covers > 40% of Europe’s gas needs).

2

4

15

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone credit growth lost further momentum. Credit impulse eased mid Q2 led by firms in line with ECB BLS (tighter financing conditions & higher demand led by short term needs). Working capital loans contributed positively once again while uncertainty limits investment plan.

0

5

15

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone sentiment raises concern about future output & growth: - < 50 manufacturing PMI activity components (1st time since June 2020). - New orders/inventories at the lowest since May 2020. Acute price pressures yet eased further (input & output prices down from record high).

1

6

14

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

Further evidence of the @ecb monetary policy transmission. Services PMI peaked in April at 56.3, lagging the manufacturing sector already in recession. Households cut back on durable goods with car sales rising at a slower pace in May & construction down 1.4% Y/Y in February.

1

3

15

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

10 months

#Eurozone close to recession since late 2022 with subdued hard & soft data in Q4 showing no strong recovery in sight. Industrial production remains well < capacity led by Germany hit by the global manufacturing downturn, motor vehicles, consumer durable & capital goods output.

1

3

13

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

#Eurozone supply-demand imbalances eased (industrial production is 1.5% > pre-crisis) with early evidence that supply chain are less disruptive. Country wise, output is mostly driven by Italy where it exceeds December 2019 level by 4%.

1

5

14

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone main 4 countries industrial production remains well below capacity led by #Germany . It exceeds pre-pandemic level in #Italy by almost 5% despite a strong decline m/m due to energy while #France lags behind.

1

10

15

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Weaker #Eurozone manufacturing momentum with @IHSMarkitPMI activity components further down. Prices pressures still acute yet eased. New orders to inventories at the lowest level & in contraction for the 1st time since June 2020 which is worrying for future output.

1

8

14

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Strong impact from #RussianUkrainianWar with #Germany output declining the most since Covid.Foreign demand dropped led by non-Eurozone countries yet orders remain well >pre-crisis level.Raw material shortages, price pressures & weaker export orders add pressure on future output.

0

6

14

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

#Eurozone manufacturing activity dragged by worsening supply bottlenecks (delivery times at record high again) amid solid demand. Firms look to pass on higher input prices to consumers. Output should rebound once the supply shortages are overcome with orders being placed again.

0

9

13

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

6 years

In the #Eurozone , after the depressed level reached in September, car sales re-emerge! The environment car regulation issue seems behind us. Looking ahead, the private consumption drivers are supportive which is positive for growth.

2

7

14

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone credit growth gained further momentum led by corporates reflecting demand for working capital loans to cope with elevated energy cost burden.

1

5

13

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Sentiment points to better growth early 2023. Manufacturing PMI trade below 50 but activity components improved further as well as new orders to inventories that have probably bottomed up in October. Demand & supply gap points to reduced price pressures.

1

14

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

6 years

In Germany🇩🇪, the global economic slowdown led by uncertainty is very painful. Factory orders dropped by the most since 2012… the cause: very depressed foreign demand (lowest since 2009). This is bad for manufacturing activity unless trade tensions fail going forward...

0

13

12

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone prices mostly driven by energy led by gas (52.9%Y/Y, a new high). Country wise, #France shows the lowest CPI (<6% Y/Y) thanks to its reduced dependence on gas.

3

4

13

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

Accordingly, credit impulse, turned less negative early Q4 thanks to firms while households credit impulse contracted. This is in line with #ECB BLS (credit standards for loans to firms to tighten slightly in Q4 & further for housing loans, yet higher loan demand by corporates).

0

5

14

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

Mood among #Eurozone consumers has continued to improve (highest point since #ukrainewar started) amid lower energy prices, reduced uncertainty & solid labour market suggesting upside risks to consumer spending over the summer.

0

4

13

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Country wise, Germany lags behind its peers with output being well below capacity giving room for some rebound ahead. Sector wise, energy intensive sectors continue struggling despite better energy developments while motor vehicles benefited from the supply chain reopening.

1

14

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

Eurozone resilient GDP & core inflation yet darkened growth outlook for H2 amid further evidence of the transmission of the monetary policy. Q2 GDP at 0.3% (2.7%>Q4 2019 yet 4.4%<6Y trend) led by France & Spain (net trade & domestic demand). Italy contraction was led by industry.

1

7

12

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

In #Germany , solid orders (13% > pre-crisis level) driven by robust domestic demand (10% > trend) are positive for future output amid easing supply frictions (PMI business survey delivery times shortened for the 3rd running month).

0

6

13

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

In #Greece , New Democracy came 1st at the national election. The 50 bonus seats in the 2nd round allow for a majority pointing to a continuity of the current policies. With much better macro fundamentals & weaker imbalances, an upgrade to investment grade late 2023 looks likely.

1

4

12

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

Industrial production remains well below capacity in the big 4 #Eurozone countries notably in #Germany (10.6% < trend). It exceeds pre-crisis level only in #Italy (3.4% higher). Business surveys suggest a rebound in the manufacturing sector ahead amid easing supply pressures.

0

10

13

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

Eurozone activity so far resilient led by domestic & external demand (industrial production, retail sales, exports>pre-pandemic level) with signs of monetary policy transmission to the residential sector (construction activity further down), the most sensitive to interest rates.

1

5

12

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

In Germany, industrial production dropped remaining well<capacity in line with subdued orders yet record backlog of orders is supportive. Unfilled orders exceed trend by 11% & the stock of orders is 7.5 months. Better sentiment amid lower price pressures points to better output.

1

5

10

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

Mood among #Eurozone consumers has improved further from the record low last September thanks to lower wholesale gas prices, reduced risk of gas shortages which is an upside risk for consumer spending as savings built during the pandemic remain significant.

0

8

13

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone inflation has not peaked yet with underlying price pressures gaining further momentum but should be temporary (anchored LT inflation expectations).

1

3

13

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

In #Germany , easing supply-demand imbalances with early evidence that supply chain are less disruptive (delivery times shortened at the strongest pace since June 2020). Vehicle production remains well < capacity yet firms start catching up on their backlogs (2nd rise in a row).

0

7

13

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone main 3 countries national economic sentiment weakened further & provides a recessionary signal in #Germany where IFO is at the lowest since Covid. EMU-3 consumer sentiment remains very depressed led by #Germany where the index reached a new low.

0

6

13

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

Ahead of the @ecb meeting, further evidence of the monetary tightening transmission into (a) financial conditions, (b) activity and (c) inflation. (a) Lending rates to firms (NFC) at the highest in a decade, rising at a fast pace (cumulative change of 270bps for NFC loans<250K).

2

8

12

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

9 months

#Eurozone recent data show that: - Credit growth contracted at a slower pace Y/Y in November with signs that the monetary policy transmission is peaking. Bank loans monthly flows gained momentum with the increase over the month led by households and corporates.

1

3

13

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

#Eurozone growth momentum is slowing down with a worrisome downturn in industrial activity while the services sector remains resilient. Composite PMI points to descent growth in Q2 though. #Germany Q1 GDP contracted being now in recession (led by consumption) lagging its peers.

1

3

11

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

1st evidence of #russianinvasion impact on #Germany sentiment. ZEW survey outlook collapsed while inflation expectations surged.Profit expectations dropped across sectors led by those hit by supply chain dusruptions & energy prices surge (auto, steel, mechanical engineering).

0

7

12

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

Eurozone was technically in recession last winter with government consumption contracting the most since Q2 2020 due to Germany. Private consumption was again a negative contributor. Growth to be notably led by better terms of trade yet restrained by tighter monetary conditions.

0

6

12

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

#Eurozone credit growth gained further momentum led by corporates in core countries. Shorter maturities continued contributing positively.

1

8

12

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

#Eurozone trade deficit peaked last August amid easing energy prices. Energy imports (value) from Russia down 50% from a peak in March 2022. Resilient nominal exports (9% > trend despite a strong decline late 2022) mostly led by the US with #China starting contributing positively

1

5

11

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

5 years

In the #Eurozone , effective monetary policy transmission but firms postponed their investment decisions given uncertainty. Credit growth & impulse decline in Q4 (led by NFC in core economies) suggest weaker growth. Yet, credit reacts with lag & the trade truth is positive ahead

0

9

12

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

4 years

In the 4 main #Eurozone countries, car sales show a healthy return to pre-crisis level. France recovery (now 4%<Dec 19 level helped by the car scrappage scheme introduced in June) is at odds with the sluggish rebound in Italy (19%<). New incentives there will soon be supportive.

2

6

12

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

1 year

#Eurozone M3 has been rising at the slowest pace since 2014. The QE contribution to M3 has faded out rapidly (null contribution). M3 has being held up by private credit yet eased the last 6 months. Net external asset flows have continued improving.

1

11

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

2 years

ECB balance sheet rose strongly through bond purchases & loans to banks at very attractive conditions & seeks now to reduce excess liquidity (TLROs 1st).The tighter the monetary policy, the higher the incentive for banks to keep the liquidity at maturity making an easy profit.

0

8

12

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

5 years

In #Germany , it is not all doom and gloom! -Manufacturing #PMI contracted further YET forward looking components kept improving. -Exports gained momentum at the start of Q4 led by Europe, US and Asia. -Therefore, industrial production should recover going forward.

0

5

12

Sabrina Khanniche

@skhanniche

3 years

#Eurozone PPI surged to 13.4% Y/Y (highest level since late 1974) led by supply disruptions aggravated by another supply shock (gas prices). It may increase the pass through of costs to consumer prices. Manufacturing PMI output prices are indeed close to an all-time high (>70).

1

7

11