Excited to share that Soldiers of Democracy? won the
@APSAMENA
Best Book Award and co-won the Robert Jervis Best Int'l Security Book Award!
Thank you to both committees and to everyone who made the book possible 🙏
On sale now...
Just had a paper rejected. R2:
"I would also like to see more engagement with Grewal (ISQ, 2019) who similarly looks at material interests or with Grewal (2018) as they address very similar questions."
My bad...
State Dept official Josh Paul, who resigned in protest this week, noted that Leahy vetting routinely flags the IDF's human rights violations, but they get ignored by State Dept's senior leadership.
Important context as Biden announces $14 billion more in military aid to Israel.
Former
@StateDept
official Josh Paul on
@NewsHour
:
"A broken system" regarding weapons transfers to Israel
Leahy vetting "has never found an Israeli unit to be guilty of a gross violation of human rights"
"Leahy vetting" is a process "where units that are identified to be
My friends, it is finally happening. After 10 years in the making, my book is coming out with
@OxUniPress
on July 25!
"Soldiers of Democracy? Military Legacies and the Arab Spring"
Summary and reviews here:
Discount code below to pre-order with 30% off!
Beyond the substance, the location of
#Pompeo
's speech is also revealing. Obama spoke directly to the people by choosing Cairo University, near downtown Cairo. Pompeo chose AUC in the wealthy suburbs - speaking more to elites and governments, rather than their publics.
Honored and thrilled to have a paper out in the APSR. Grateful to friends and colleagues for feedback, to Al-Bawsala for parliamentary voting data, and to Tunisian MPs for taking the time to be interviewed.
Does US military training help professionalize foreign militaries? What norms actually diffuse through US training and education programs?
I tackle these questions in a new article in
@SecStudies_Jrnl
. 1/
I've been working on these two papers for years. Thrilled to see them finally out:
In MEJ: "Tunisia's Foiled Coup of 1987: The November 8th Group" ()
In APSR: "From Islamists to Muslim Democrats: The Case of Tunisia’s Ennahda" ()
Officially hooded. So lucky to have studied
@Princeton
and to have had an advisor like
@AmaneyJamal
- the smartest and kindest advisor anyone could have asked for.
#PhDone
Why does Tunisia's military routinely side with protesters? I surveyed 72 senior military officers to find out. I discuss my findings today in the
@monkeycageblog
1/8
Happy Monday! Excited to see my paper with
@shadihamid
now published in
@AJPS_Editor
(and open-access)!
We explore how discrimination of Muslims shapes their political attitudes, and how inclusion can help mitigate those effects.
@HLuceFdn
@BrookingsFP
Humbled and honored to win an
@APSAMENA
best paper award with Holger Albrecht and
@kev_koehler
. Thank you to the committee, and congratulations to all other award winners!
Holger Albrecht, Sharan Grewal, and Kevin Koehler, "The Political Sources of Support for the Military: Experimental Evidence from Tunisia," for best paper on Middle Eastern politics presented to the 2019 APSA Annual Meeting
Excited to see this open-access at
@apsrjournal
! And grateful it recently received the APSA Democracy & Autocracy award for best paper presented at APSA last year.
It asks: when do powerful, politicized militaries show restraint towards mass protests? 🧵
#Tunisia
: Despite this being the third election in one month, today's presidential runoff seems on track to have the highest turnout thus far. And over 6.4 million Tunisians - over half the population - watched the presidential debate on Friday. Democracy ain't dead, folks.
In 2018,
#Tunisia
passed an anti-racism law prescribing 1-3 years in prison for anyone inciting hatred, violence, or exclusion based on race.
Sad to see where Kais Saied is taking the country, on so many levels.
So if my math is right, Kais Saied just won, on his own, about as many votes as the entire parliament received last week.
Saied: 72.5% vote *57.8% turnout *7m voters = 2.97 million
Parliament: 41.7% turnout *7m voters = 2.9 million
Talk about a mandate..
#tunisiavotes
#Tunisia
🚨 New paper alert 🚨
What are the long-term legacies of violence on protest behavior?
@mtkilavuz
@rmkubinec
and I explore this at
@JPR_journal
in the context of Algeria, examining how the 1990s civil war shaped the 2019-2020 Hirak protests.
Thread 🧵
#Tunisia
's presidential race is heating up to be one of the most competitive it's ever seen. You've got former presidents and prime ministers, media moguls and pop stars, Islamists, populists, and communists (oh my!). I challenge you to find a more vibrant democracy.
Why is it important to call a coup a "coup"? To delegitimize it.
In survey experiments 🇪🇬🇹🇳🇩🇿 public support for the military removing the president fell by 15-50 percentage points when labelled a coup.
w/
@drewhkinney
in
@democ_journal
. 50 free copies:
You know you've made it when you're smeared by Nessma TV lol. And an Afghani Nahdaoui? That's just impressive.
FWIW, I didn't break the story about Karoui's lobbying contract, merely retweeted it. All credit goes to the incredible lobbying tracking team
@AlMonitor
.
When do militaries refuse to repress protesters? In a new article for
@ISQ_Jrnl
, I asked this question to Tunisian military officers themselves in a survey. Their corporate interests and composition were the most important predictors of defection.
Wow -
#Tunisian
presidential candidate Nabil Karoui has signed a $1 million contract with a Canadian lobbying firm to meet Trump, Putin, and secure "material support for the push for the presidency."
Read more:
MEET THE MEI COMMUNITY:
@sh_grewal
is an Assistant Professor of Government at
@williamandmary
, nonresident fellow at
@BrookingsInst
, and nonresident senior fellow at
@POMED
. His research examines revolutions and democratic transitions in the Arab world.
More Tunisians now support military rule (47%) than democracy (46%).
Support for one-party rule (41%) and one-man rule (35%) are also growing.
Source:
@afrobarometer
#Tunisia
Ben Ali's seizure of power on Nov 7, 1987 had preempted an Islamist coup plot planned for Nov 8. Who was this November 8th group? In a new working paper, I examine their motivations, plans, and ultimate failure, drawing on interviews with several of the coup-plotters.
#Tunisia
#Tunisia
Kais Saied has won in a landslide - 72.5% according to Emrhod, 76.9% by Sigma. That large victory makes it less likely that his opponent, Nabil Karoui, will contest the results, and gives Saied a huge electoral mandate to reform the system.
Happy to say that exactly one year later, this article has found a home! Forthcoming in the Middle East Journal.
Also, R1, if you're out there, thank you. This piece has become so much better because of you.
Ben Ali's seizure of power on Nov 7, 1987 had preempted an Islamist coup plot planned for Nov 8. Who was this November 8th group? In a new working paper, I examine their motivations, plans, and ultimate failure, drawing on interviews with several of the coup-plotters.
#Tunisia
#Tunisia
: According to Sigma Conseil, Kais Saied won about 90% among youth and among those with a college degree. 31% of Saied voters did not vote in last week's parliamentary elections, and 21% had voted for Ennahda.
Was on
@France24_en
earlier today to discuss the 10 year anniversary of the Arab Spring. My thoughts on its legacy in
#Tunisia
:
"No other President in the region can say they have genuinely won a free and fair election, like Tunisia's can."
Terrible news - Walid Salem, Ph.D. candidate at University of Washington, disappeared in Egypt after conducting an interview with legal scholar Nour Farahat. Follows sentencing of Sinai expert Ismail Alexandrani earlier this week.
Crazy. Senator Menendez indicted for taking bribes -- $480k in cash, $100k in gold bars, a Benz, and more -- in exchange for helping the Egyptian military secure US aid and weapons (among other asks)
Oof, very weak statement by the US on Tunisia's power grab: "We are concerned about the developments in Tunisia" (not even very concerned?)
And for good measure, why not allude to Egypt 2013: we "have not made a determination on whether it was a coup"..
Excited to share a new
@BrookingsFP
paper with
@shadihamid
on "The Dark Side of Consensus in Tunisia."
We argue that the presence of consensus politics so late into a transition is not something to praise, but rather a sign of a deeper weakness.
Today marks 10 years since Tunisians overthrew their dictator and kickstarted the Arab Spring. My take on why
#Tunisia
's transition to democracy succeeded, but why it has not yet consolidated.
@washingtonpost
@monkeycageblog
Will Tunisia's young democracy survive? In a new report for
@BrookingsFP
, I identify the threats to its democracy, and provide recommendations to help it consolidate.
#Algeria
's protest movement is heading into its 9th month - one of the longest in the world. The regime is hoping they tire themselves out. But to what extent has there actually been protest fatigue? I explore this question today for the
@washingtonpost
:
#Tunisia
's Kais Saied has in effect suspended the constitution, saying he will ignore any clauses that conflict with his actions.
Two months in, he has yet to offer any real plan, and is coming across as just accumulating power for the sake of power.
2.التدابير الخاصة بممارسة السلطة التشريعية
3.التدابير الخاصة بممارسة السلطة التنفيذية
4.مواصلة العمل بتوطئة الدستور وبالبابين الأول والثاني منه وبجميع الأحكام الدستورية التي لا تتعارض مع هذه التدابير الاستثنائية، إضافة إلى إلغاء الهيئة الوقتية لمراقبة دستورية القوانين
(2/3)
#TnPR
Delighted to share a new article in
@Journal_CompPol
with Steve Monroe: "Down and Out: Founding Elections and Disillusionment with Democracy in Egypt and Tunisia."
Available free to download for a limited time. Short summary thread: 1/
US
@StateDept
"concerned and disappointed by recent reports from
#Tunisia
on infringements on freedom of the press and expression and the use of military courts to investigate civilian cases." US urges "a clear roadmap for a return to a transparent, democratic process."
Why didn't the Turkish opposition support the 2016 coup? Through an original survey, I show that they had increasingly come to believe (1) they could win in elections, (2) the military would not appoint them to power, and (3) a coup would only increase sympathy for the AKP.
#Tunisia
's Kais Saied to bar foreign election monitors from 2024 presidential election. "We don't need their testimony. Rather, we need the testimony of Tunisians."
#Tunisia
: While turnout seems low (45% of registered voters), remember that this year saw about 2 million new registered voters. In raw numbers, about 3 million Tunisians voted today, compared to 1.9 million in 2018 and 3.3 million in 2014.
I've heard a number of US officials say that those of us ringing alarm bells are exaggerating the threat Kais Saied poses to democracy, that Tunisians still have the freedom to protest and criticize. I hope this shakes them out of their complacency.
10 years after the revolution, Tunisia still faces police brutality. But it also features protests against the police -- largely unheard of in the rest of the region.
Outrage in
#Tunisia
about a draft law granting impunity to security forces, another protest against the bill - to be voted on probably today - staged in front of an annex building of parliament in
#Tunis
Honored to share a new article in
@AJPS_Editor
co-authored with
@AmaneyJamal
@masoudtarek
@ernugent
:
"Poverty and Divine Rewards: The Electoral Advantage of Islamist Political Parties."
Available free for a short time. Tweet summary below. 1/
#Tunisia
's latest presidential hopeful is singer Nermine Sfar, who pledges to:
- grant women not just equal but double inheritance of men
- fine men 5000 dinars if they promise to marry but don't
- ban hijab but impose safsari (traditional Tun veil) 1/
Two recent articles on why Islamists tend to pursue neoliberal economic policies, both in
@PandRJournal
:
@Khalilalanani
on Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood: ()
Maryam Ben Salem on Tunisia's Ennahda: ()
On this July 3, the contrast between Egypt and Tunisia could not be any clearer: another anniversary of the coup v. the election of the Arab world's first female mayor.
While Saudi Arabia assassinates its journalists,
#Tunisia
passes the Arab world's first law criminalizing racism. Important step forward in one of the world's youngest democracies.
More good news out of
#Tunisia
: parliament almost unanimously passes law on the "Elimination of all Forms of Racial Discrimination."
The law criminalizes racial discrimination, including hate speech, with 1-3 years in prison.
🚨JOB🚨 Tenure-track Assistant Professor at William & Mary in modern Middle Eastern history and international relations, a joint hire in the History Department and International Relations Program.
Applications due November 15. Please share and apply!
Exactly 7 years ago, Mohamed Morsi won the 2012 Egyptian presidential elections (runoff was June 16-17). Today, 7 years later, he has died under the watch of the coup leader who ousted and imprisoned him. A sad coda for Egypt's brief experiment with democracy.
Happy to announce that my paper with
@Y2Kureshi
, "How to Sell a Coup: Elections as Coup Legitimation," has been accepted at the Journal of Conflict Resolution! Check it out here:
#Tunisia
's new president Kais Saied invited his former electoral rival, Nabil Karoui, to the presidential palace today. Karoui reiterated his congratulations and said that his party supports the president and all initiatives that serve the public good.
Last week,
#Tunisia
became the first Arab and the first Muslim country to criminalize racism. In a new piece for
@BrookingsFP
, I take a look at what led to the law, and present some of the first survey data on black Tunisians (h/t
@afrobarometer
).
Massive protests in Sudan today -- made even more impressive knowing they were organized without the internet, and in the wake of the RSF massacre earlier this month.
I know we're all watching Tunisia, but don't forget about Algeria, where the regime is trying to impose elections and repress the hirak - arresting Karim Tabou & Samir Benlarbi, and ordering gendermerie to block protesters from accessing Algiers tomorrow.
In his first speech today,
#Algeria
's interim president Abdelkader Bensalah promised "an Algeria wedded to modernity and democracy."
Instead, police repressed student protests and the
@AFP
bureau chief was expelled. Not a good start to this "democracy."
Just did my first-ever podcast! On the prospects for democracy in the Arab world, and alongside former Palestinian PM Salam Fayyad. Honored to be at
@BrookingsFP
and have such opportunities.
The cancellation of Algeria's July 4th presidential elections leads the country into a constitutional vacuum, yes. But importantly, it means the regime can no longer use a shroud of constitutional legitimacy to impose its preferred roadmap.
#Tunisia
's Nobel Peace Prize-winning Order of Lawyers also comes out in favor of Saied's decrees:
"The ONAT called on the Head of State to open all files related to corruption, electoral crimes, terrorism" and the Belaïd and Brahmi assassinations.
For those in the Boston area: I'll be presenting my new book at Harvard on Thursday, Nov 9.
Come for the free lunch, stay for the juicy details of what actually happened in Egypt and Tunisia's transitions...
Join us Thursday at 12pm in Malkin Penthouse to hear
@sh_grewal
discuss "Soldiers of Democracy? Military Legacies and the Arab Spring."
Register via the event page:
#Tunisia
Has Kais Saied's war on corruption begun? PM Chahed today announced an audit of the Foreign Ministry, following Saied's request yesterday for an audit of the presidency. Separately, a travel ban was issued yesterday on media mogul Sami Fehri on suspicions of corruption.
For the first time since Feb 22 we hear the slogan "Dégage Gaid Salah," referring to the army chief of staff. Protesters are seeing through his attempts to preserve the regime.
#Algeria
#Tunisia
For the first time, Ennahda will field a presidential candidate from within its ranks: Abdelfattah Mourou, the acting speaker of the parliament and VP of the party. A thread on why this is surprising and what it means. 1/
More good news from
#Tunisia
: The losing candidate Nabil Karoui says in the interests of the country he will not appeal the results of Sunday's presidential elections. He had previously threatened to do so for being denied an equal opportunity to campaign.