Sergio Tesla @sergio_tesla_ Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Sergio Tesla

@sergio_tesla_

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1,231

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3,984

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Crypto Statistician & Analyst 📊 | Using Market Statistics for Smarter Trades 💡 | Start Making Data-Driven Trading Decisions ⬇️

https://t.co/z42bKBIHAX

Joined December 2022

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

$BTC Long-only mode is over, so what's next? Considering the market is a modern-day torture machine designed to inflict PAIN and SUFFERING, I anticipate the following is the most likely scenario. We will see some form of consolidation/retracement that aims to screw over as many

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

8 months

Let's review this. How are we doing with that retracement? Is the never-ending flow of Bitcoin ETF Inflows canceling a possible retracement? Personally I think not. Let's review basic market psychology. A lot of people only started buying when it broke ATH. Why is this? It is

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 year

@andsnee @DailyLoud Wtf man that ain't no prank, the guy could suffocate.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 year

@cowsgonemad @stillgray No we’re not

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 year

@Cal4548 @ddrisner22 @stillgray You embody everything that is wrong with society

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 year

@DudespostingWs In today’s episode of “things that never happened”….

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

11 months

@BenArmstrongsX For someone who isn’t bothered about other people’s opinions, you sure are investing a lot of time into trying to convince those very people that you are the good guy.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 year

@stillgray Our society is degenerating fast

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 year

@thescalpingpro Not a very good comparison of PA imo but I'm sure it'll do well with farming engagement from the moon boys.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 year

@ClownWorld_

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 year

@0xgaut Those numbers are soul crushing

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

📚How to Determine the Likelihood of a Pivot Holding With Distance Statistics✍️ The concepts in this tutorial are proprietary to Minoma Analytics and I promise you will not have seen them elsewhere. This will be a thorough breakdown of one of the metrics we use to determine how

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

$BTC GM. Let's review the quoted post. Even though it has been over 2 weeks since I posted it, we have taken neither the lows nor the highs yet. This is indicative of the environment we are in, and a quote from a post I made on that same day captures it nicely: "Don't get

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

For those who did not read the entire quoted post, I concluded with the following points regarding our current range: ⏳1. The bottom is not yet in. It will take weeks or even 2 months to put it in. ⏳2. Every local bottom will be called as "the bottom is in!". This is due to

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

We are entering the final stage of the chart I posted below at the start of this consolidation: the final capitulation. Until now we have been patiently waiting, but this is the time when we start paying attention. I'll personally be looking to add to my spot holdings. No need

@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

$BTC Long-only mode is over, so what's next? Considering the market is a modern-day torture machine designed to inflict PAIN and SUFFERING, I anticipate the following is the most likely scenario. We will see some form of consolidation/retracement that aims to screw over as many

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 year

@xbtGBH Good friend of mine smokes plenty of weed, is a highly successful entrepreneur, works out 20+ hours a week and participates in Iron Mans. Agreed that weed addiction is not good but you can use it and still achieve peak performance. Possibly more about character than the drug.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

@caprioleio I have a German friend who was always anti-Bitcoin. I have tried many times to convince him of the use case of Bitcoin, without success. He is also very anti-German government. When I told him that the German government was selling Bitcoin, he bought his first Bitcoin the same

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

Watch how fast sentiment changes. Greed turns to fear. Understand it. When sentiment changes to “this was the cycle top, we were too early.” That’s when the next bullish impulse will commence. And it will take longer than you want. Possibly, and likely, a couple of months.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

@Tradermayne The only problem is that Bali is the respawn location of life coaches.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

GM. You listened to your favorite influencers with 500k followers and now you are sidelined. But it's okay, he's telling you that the bearish retest of the range breakdown is still coming right now at 65k. It was supposed to reject at 60k first but nothing wrong with increasing

@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

$BTC Long-only mode is over, so what's next? Considering the market is a modern-day torture machine designed to inflict PAIN and SUFFERING, I anticipate the following is the most likely scenario. We will see some form of consolidation/retracement that aims to screw over as many

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

$BTC And there we go, higher prices for the week as predicted. If you think statistics are boring, I hope my recent calls will make you reconsider. 3 weeks in a row we have successfully determined the most probable direction of the market for the remainder of the week using

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

$BTC Bad news for the bears. The Monday low (weekly P1) looks safe due to 2 reasons: 1. Only 16.9% of weeks see a reversal this far away from wOpen by taking out the weekly low. 2. Based on time-adjusted probabilities, Monday low ahs a 72.5% probability of holding. We also know

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

3 months ago, on March 17, I said that we would be entering an extended consolidation with a final capitulation phase by the end of it. On July 5th - the day we put in the bottom - I tweeted that we were in the final capitulation phase. Served it to you on a silver platter.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

$BTC Long-only mode is over, so what's next? Considering the market is a modern-day torture machine designed to inflict PAIN and SUFFERING, I anticipate the following is the most likely scenario. We will see some form of consolidation/retracement that aims to screw over as many

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

5 months

People close to me often jokingly describe me as a machine due to my long hours and productivity. The key to high productivity (for me, at least) lies in controlling your dopamine exposure. One thing is certain: as a human being, you will be chasing dopamine. So all that is left

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

8 months

Let's review this. How are we doing with that retracement? Is the never-ending flow of Bitcoin ETF Inflows canceling a possible retracement? Personally I think not. Let's review basic market psychology. A lot of people only started buying when it broke ATH. Why is this? It is

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

8 months

I would be very cautious in this part of the cycle. Don’t overleverage. I think a 20%-30% retrace on BTC is loading and alts will get rekt hard. Too many people are making money. FOMO is increasing with the day, people aping into meme coins after it did multiples already,

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

I flipped bearish when most people were mega-bullish. Now I am starting to flip bullish when most are flipping mega-bearish. Price leads, narrative follows. Tick tock.

@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

8 months

Let's review this. How are we doing with that retracement? Is the never-ending flow of Bitcoin ETF Inflows canceling a possible retracement? Personally I think not. Let's review basic market psychology. A lot of people only started buying when it broke ATH. Why is this? It is

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

5 months

@DeFiTracer Imagine being so careless in your trickery that you post screenshots of 2022 and 2021 and proclaim it's ChatGPT-4o. Regardless, anyone making 500k with a trading bot will not be making any posts about it. Someone put this guy on the wall of shame.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

📚How to Determine Daily Direction using Statistics✍️ I promise you haven't seen this method anywhere else yet, so grab your notes, and let's get to it. Word of warning: we're gonna dive into the wonderful world of statistics. This method focuses on determining which daily pivot

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC After a long wait, Bitcoin finally took out the lows of the range. So now the question is: was this the low of the range, and are we ready to go up? I think not. On March 19th I wrote the following: "(...) When sentiment changes to “this was the cycle top, we were too

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

For those who did not read the entire quoted post, I concluded with the following points regarding our current range: ⏳1. The bottom is not yet in. It will take weeks or even 2 months to put it in. ⏳2. Every local bottom will be called as "the bottom is in!". This is due to

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 month

I am still macro bullish. One of the main arguments I hear against the bull case is: "Market Structure is trending down". As someone who once spent 12-14 hours a day for 3 months solely studying and mastering MS by testing hypotheses, I wholeheartedly disagree with this. There

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

14 days

$BTC GM. Yesterday on stream I explained that it was likely BTC would put in a new weekly low. Why? Because you don't mess with Mondays. During the last 30 weeks, 86% (!) of weeks have put in a weekly high or low on Monday. This is the highest number in the last 5 years: So

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

9 months

@DodgysDD I'm sorry but this just seems like a very lame excuse as to why you get stopped out. I think people would respect it way more if he just said "was wrong on this idea, on to the next." Since when are losses not part of the game? Not a good look.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

@Eljaboom No it's not. Completely different PA within a very different context. This is what we call forcing a narrative on a chart.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

$BTC Statistically, it seems improbable that the bottom is in yet for the week. Let's review the current PA from this week and see why this is. We put in both the weekly high and weekly low on Monday. The weekly high was put in before the weekly low, making the weekly high P1

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

$BTC Carnage in the markets. I did not expect that 53k low from July to break but clearly, I was wrong in that bias. I said a move like this was possible but not probable, yet here we are. So the next question is: is this simply an improbable event playing out or was it

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

5 months

This morning I was able to spot 4 winning short-setups on 4 different assets without even opening a price chart. I did so within 30 seconds while sipping my morning tea. The assets were BTCUSD, RUNEUSDT, ETCUSDT, and FILUSDT. See my post from this morning in my Discord channel:

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC Starting to see the pattern here? Most people's reactions to big bullish candles: - "Wow super strong reaction!" - "Aggressive move, lots of strength!" - "This looks really good!" Appropriate response: - "That move left behind quite some imbalances, good probability to

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

Here's a rule I always apply: - Whenever I see an impulsive bullish candle that leaves behind imbalances, I become (short-term) bearish. - Whenever I see an impulsive bearish candle that leaves behind imbalances, I become (short-term) bullish. $ETHBTC is a good example for

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

26 days

Drinking a final rum and coke before heading to the airport and flying home. There was a time where I dreaded leaving a place like this. Now I’m looking forward to get back to work. Time to lock in.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

@rektcapital It was written. We have entered the final stage of this consolidation: the final capitulation stage.

@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

$BTC Long-only mode is over, so what's next? Considering the market is a modern-day torture machine designed to inflict PAIN and SUFFERING, I anticipate the following is the most likely scenario. We will see some form of consolidation/retracement that aims to screw over as many

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

@CryptoPoseidonn Yep, I marked the last 5 times that price had such an aggressive dump on the daily. You can see that every time price needs some time to make up it’s mind:

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC Yesterday I got a couple of requests to update this chart. One of the main questions was how long I thought this capitulation phase is going to last. My answer is the same as what I have been saying since the start of this range: probably longer than you want/expect. I

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

$BTC Long-only mode is over, so what's next? Considering the market is a modern-day torture machine designed to inflict PAIN and SUFFERING, I anticipate the following is the most likely scenario. We will see some form of consolidation/retracement that aims to screw over as many

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

$BTC Bad news for the bears. The Monday low (weekly P1) looks safe due to 2 reasons: 1. Only 16.9% of weeks see a reversal this far away from wOpen by taking out the weekly low. 2. Based on time-adjusted probabilities, Monday low ahs a 72.5% probability of holding. We also know

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

$BTC And there we go, weekly low on Sunday. From the quoted post: “It's been 24 weeks since the Weely P2 was put in on Thursday so I would expect lower prices and the low for this week to be put in tomorrow or Sunday, and then we can take it from there.”

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

$BTC "This would not be a weird place to either range for a while or retrace a bit further down to put in a HL before taking the liquidity that's left above the highs." The retrace is happening. I still believe this downside is temporary and price will be looking to put in a

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

9 months

@BenArmstrongsX It's quite remarkable that someone is so eager to record and publish his own spectacular downfall so extensively.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC There we go. Price hit our statistically likely POI. This is the beauty of statistics. I saw a lot of bull posts for price to continue higher, and if it were not for statistics I might have been bullish too. However, raw statistics indicated that the likelihood for

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC Price seems to be heading lower as expected, so let's review this and play some 4D Chess with statistics. We have already statistically established that: - The weekly high is a strong weekly high - The weekly low is a weak weekly low Please read the quoted posts to see

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC A play like this is something I am taking into account. It would surely fuck a lot of people over. If BTC makes it up to the highs I expect it to smack back down to properly go for the lows (regardless of whether we take ATH or not).

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$ETHBTC Many posts now state this run from ETHBTC can not be trusted. That's another good sign for a potential bottom in my opinion. We've had the overly negative sentiment at multi-year range lows on ETHBTC, now followed by denial of those same people that the bottom is in.

@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$ETHBTC Been a while since I updated this. Let's start with an excerpt from the quoted post: "I am not sure whether the bottom is in yet or not. Even though I see a lot of people bearish and a lot of people in pain, there is definitely still a good portion of people that remain

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

Friendly reminder that the people who are bear posting at the lows are the very same people who will start bull posting at the highs. This is the magic formula for driving engagement, which is their only goal. When price is down, most people feel fearful. When price is up, most

@TheMoonCarl

The Moon

4 months

Assuming we've already topped out, would you be willing to buy #Bitcoin for 23K?

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

$BTC Can't say I didn't warn you. I accelerated my DCA when we hit the lows, which in my opinion was the final capitulation event as posted here on X. I crafted a plan at the beginning of March, stayed patient by waiting for months, and executed the plan when it was time. All

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

$BTC Started DCA'ing some more into positions here. GM!

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

$BTC GM. Looks like we have entered the final capitulation phase. Sentiment is pretty much exactly what I described in my initial post for this stage: "Alright screw this, crypto is done. I'm out, bye." People have been spoiled throughout this bull run so far, but now most

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

$BTC Long-only mode is over, so what's next? Considering the market is a modern-day torture machine designed to inflict PAIN and SUFFERING, I anticipate the following is the most likely scenario. We will see some form of consolidation/retracement that aims to screw over as many

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

$BTC If you are freaking out about price, review the chart in the quoted post below and realize that everything is going according to plan. Especially read the text that depicts sentiment at the bottom of the range. Sounds familiar? Yep, that's exactly where we are at right

@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

$BTC Long-only mode is over, so what's next? Considering the market is a modern-day torture machine designed to inflict PAIN and SUFFERING, I anticipate the following is the most likely scenario. We will see some form of consolidation/retracement that aims to screw over as many

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

$BTC I marked out all the days since late 2018 that saw a similar drop on the daily as we saw last Monday (-16% or more) on this chart below. Pay special attention to what happens after these drops. Usually, price ranges for a while until making another move. I have alluded to

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

Honestly quite sad to see that so many people are simping over this Hawk Tuah girl. Glorification and adoration of a girl who literally said you need to spit on a dick is another sign of a degenerating society. Big shoutout to everyone still choosing to give their attention to

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

"This is the stage where you will see a shit ton of posts on Bitcoin PA, but effectively, a whole lot of nothing is happening."

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

The rebalancing of the emotional spectrum is in progress, and thus our range is progressing nicely. This is the stage where you will see a shit ton of posts on Bitcoin PA, but effectively, a whole lot of nothing is happening. Don't get distracted by all the extreme bull and

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 year

@tradermike1234 Many big lessons, difficult to choose. But probably that patience is the biggest determiner of success. I quit my job to pursue full-time trading. At the time I had never traded before, and as someone who made that move, I say: don't do it. I was impatient for freedom.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

5 months

✍️The Statistical Reason Why Price isn't Reaching Your TP's ✍️ Somewhere in my trading journey, I noticed I got better at executing trades and having good trade entries, but almost always price reversed before my final TP. This is a very common issue with learning trading: where

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC 📚Collection of Educational Posts📚 Heading into this range and during this range, I have managed to stay on the right side of probabilities most of the time. During this time, I have written multiple posts that cover the reasoning behind my calls extensively. I wanted to

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

The feature release went well. I'm still very busy with making changes and rolling out the remaining features so I will be back with extensive posts next week. I promise it will be worth the wait. Can't wait to share with you guys the results of this new feature going forward.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

I'll be a little less active today and tomorrow as I am in the middle of a massive feature release for the Minoma Analytics statistics platform. On the bright side: once this is done it will be even easier for me to share more statistical insights here! Got something really

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

Study sentiment 🐻👋

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

GM. You listened to your favorite influencers with 500k followers and now you are sidelined. But it's okay, he's telling you that the bearish retest of the range breakdown is still coming right now at 65k. It was supposed to reject at 60k first but nothing wrong with increasing

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

You know what's funny, I notice very little engagement on my ETH and ETHBTC posts. Nobody gives a shit, everyone and their mothers are looking at SOL. This is why you should give a shit. If you think ETHBTC will only start running after interest picks up for it then you are

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

5 months

$BTC Alright after yesterday's pump, I feel it's a good time to drop in an update on BTC again to try and answer the question that's on everyone's mind: is this pump the continuation of the bull run again? I promise I will try and answer this question later but before I do:

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

Just going to repost here what I posted yesterday in my Discord: "For the record, I don't think we are going to see any really substantial move to the upside until Ze Germans are done selling. In my opinion, Ze Germans are playing the role of dumb money and it will be in the

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

I appreciate this a lot!! While I don't consider myself top 3/4 (not by a long shot) I feel flattered. If anyone remotely agrees with this, it would mean a lot to me if you could show this tweet some love: Let's make CT great again by promoting quality

@haque_Crypto

🌹

3 months

@sergio_tesla_ You’re legit one of the best analysts on twitter, definately top 3/4. I’m surprised you don’t have a big following, more people should find out about you and benefit rather than wasting their money on shitty traders discords.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

$BTC This PA looks remarkably familiar... I think I have seen it before in a vision... Jokes aside, I think there is a very good chance that the Final Capitulation Stage I have been talking about is behind us. The stars align, therefore I am bullish.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

$BTC GM. Looks like we have entered the final capitulation phase. Sentiment is pretty much exactly what I described in my initial post for this stage: "Alright screw this, crypto is done. I'm out, bye." People have been spoiled throughout this bull run so far, but now most

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 month

Getting ready to lock in during Q4… ⏳

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC Getting some questions about whether my bias remains for lower prices. The answer is yes, my bias remains that lower prices are likely. I think people are getting too euphoric too soon. Actually what I discussed in this video is playing out to a T so far:

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC Since it's relevant right now, I want to highlight a part from the quoted post below and expand on it: A Likely Trap to be Aware of I always like to look at sentiment and for that you need to be aware what everyone is looking at. I think many people will be looking at the

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

5 months

$BTC Got to stick to my rules... Big bullish daily candle, you know what that usually means.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC Starting to see the pattern here? Most people's reactions to big bullish candles: - "Wow super strong reaction!" - "Aggressive move, lots of strength!" - "This looks really good!" Appropriate response: - "That move left behind quite some imbalances, good probability to

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 year

@LilMoonLambo My man ain’t chubby enough anymore to play SBF though

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

Oh suddenly all the signs are flipping full mega fucking bull again, what a coincidence. What did I say: price leads, narrative follows. Meanwhile, all your favorite influencers are sidelined waiting for the bearish restest of the “range breakdown”.

@WatcherGuru

Watcher.Guru

3 months

JUST IN: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink says #Bitcoin is digital gold.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

Just want to make my stance clear on where we are in the cycle given that I see more and more doubt on my timeline. I do not believe the top is in. I believe H2 2024 we are going to see another massive bull rally. I think anyone who is panicking and selling now, claiming the top

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

22 days

Minoma Analytics 2-Month Membership Giveaway 🎁 I'm offering two free 2-month memberships to Minoma Analytics! To join in, here’s what you need to do: 1️⃣ Follow @theunpackerspod 2️⃣ Retweet this tweet 3️⃣ Answer one (or both) of the questions below in the YouTube comment section

@theunpackerspod

TheUnpackers

@theunpackerspod

22 days

$25,000 Challenge Giveaway🎁 Amazing giveaway with @BrightFunded In order to participate: - follow @TribeCapital_ @sergio_tesla_ and @BrightFunded - answer the question in the YouTube comment section! What markets can the statistics be used for?

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC Since it's relevant right now, I want to highlight a part from the quoted post below and expand on it: A Likely Trap to be Aware of I always like to look at sentiment and for that you need to be aware what everyone is looking at. I think many people will be looking at the

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC Yesterday I got a couple of requests to update this chart. One of the main questions was how long I thought this capitulation phase is going to last. My answer is the same as what I have been saying since the start of this range: probably longer than you want/expect. I

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

Are you getting bored yet? Your favorite influencer promised an immediate pump to 100k but instead price is doing nothing? Remember what I said in the quoted post (March 17th): "After retail has had enough and/or lost interest - probably after a couple of months - the next BTC

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

$BTC Long-only mode is over, so what's next? Considering the market is a modern-day torture machine designed to inflict PAIN and SUFFERING, I anticipate the following is the most likely scenario. We will see some form of consolidation/retracement that aims to screw over as many

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

After reading the below tweet from @DaanCrypto and recent economic developments and their impact on global liquidity, I have become less confident in lower prices for BTC. Global liquidity is one of my main factors for determining the most likely path for price to follow, and it

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@DaanCrypto

Daan Crypto Trades

6 months

Cycles, Corrections and Price Action 📚 Each cycle tends do trade in its own specific way. Each has their own types of corrections and price action. Here's the ones I was a part of and how they traded 👇

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

This is how most people react to PA. I'm taking ETH as an example here but you can apply this to any asset. If you can break free from this kind of thinking, you are well-equipped to stay on the right side of the market.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

Here's a rule I always apply: - Whenever I see an impulsive bullish candle that leaves behind imbalances, I become (short-term) bearish. - Whenever I see an impulsive bearish candle that leaves behind imbalances, I become (short-term) bullish. $ETHBTC is a good example for

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

5 months

Jumped into an INJ long position today with the squad after identifying that INJ was statistically most likely to take out the daily high following a significant retracement. Currently, I share these trading biases exclusively in my Discord channel, as it offers a better

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

5 months

Excuse my inactivity as of late, but I just finished the final big feature release from my roadmap and will have more time to post on X again. This final feature release will make it easier for me to spot statistical biases across different timeframes. I plan on using it to

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

Step 1: Open the Minoma Analytics Dashboard. Step 2: Go to MTF bias overview. Step 3: Establish biases for the week/day/8h/4h/1h. Congratulations, you have established the statistically most likely biases without doing any TA. The screenshot is from today (AKA more upside is

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

$BTC "At the same time, I am bullish and don't think we will have to see much lower prices than this. It would be glorious to see Ze Germans stop selling and have price pump to valhalla not too long after." Lmao. Danke Deutschland.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

Just going to repost here what I posted yesterday in my Discord: "For the record, I don't think we are going to see any really substantial move to the upside until Ze Germans are done selling. In my opinion, Ze Germans are playing the role of dumb money and it will be in the

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

23 days

GM everyone. Let's look at what we can statistically expect today for $BTC. The first thing I want to start off with is that we have an unconfirmed FVG from yesterday that measures 3.24% in size. Approximately 86% of unconfirmed FVGs that are bigger than 3% lead to a

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

5 months

$ETHBTC Aging like fine wine. Another great example of why you should get interested in an asset when almost no one else is. Not often have I seen sentiment as horrible as with ETH at the lows. This was a big part of my bull case for ETHBTC. Many times I have read something

@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

$ETHBTC What is a trading week without a bull post of ETHBTC at the lows? I notice sentiment is shifting more and more bearish for Ethereum, which is what you want to see for a proper bull case. The simple truth is this: we are just below the low of a multi-year range, as well

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

8 months

I would be very cautious in this part of the cycle. Don’t overleverage. I think a 20%-30% retrace on BTC is loading and alts will get rekt hard. Too many people are making money. FOMO is increasing with the day, people aping into meme coins after it did multiples already,

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

9 days

$BTC Data for this year: 73% of weeks in 2024 put in the first weekly pivot (weekly high or weekly low, whichever comes first) on Monday. Wild.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

25 days

The beauty of this is that I concluded more downside was likely without doing any TA. Even though my brain is at 20% because I didn’t sleep last night due to my overnight flight, it took me 10 seconds to see lower was likely. This statistical approach is a novel way to approach

@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

25 days

Just got home from the airport so it's back to work. It looks pretty clear where the market wants to go: more downside for the rest of the day is statistically very likely.

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Sergio Tesla

7 months

$ETHBTC What is a trading week without a bull post of ETHBTC at the lows? I notice sentiment is shifting more and more bearish for Ethereum, which is what you want to see for a proper bull case. The simple truth is this: we are just below the low of a multi-year range, as well

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

2 months

Navigating Market Conditions: When to Trade and When to Hold Back It always surprises me how many people are unaware that on a high level, there are two main market environments that each require a different approach. Because a lot of people don't understand this, they end up

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

I'll be a little less active today and tomorrow as I am in the middle of a massive feature release for the Minoma Analytics statistics platform. On the bright side: once this is done it will be even easier for me to share more statistical insights here! Got something really

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

$BTC I've been playing this inter-cycle top nicely so far and this chart is a testament to that, but I'm not just sharing this chart to boast. There's a lesson in it too. Most of these posts got very little engagement when I initially posted them. Look at the quoted post below

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

8 months

For the first time in months I am starting to see signs of weakness in the charts. You can see clearly here that ETH's higher highs are becoming relatively lower and lower Furthermore, if we zoom in we can see a deviation from the most recent 4h MS high. Bitcoin is showing

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

$BTC GM! In last Thursday's livestream I covered that a deviation of the triangle was the most probable scenario (see screenshot) and it is currently playing out. The idea was simple: burst up out of the triangle, get everyone bullish for the breakout, ignite the Turbo Fomo

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

Doing a live stream to go over #Bitcoin and #Ethereum PA - both technical as well as statistical analysis - starting at 12PM UTC:

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

The US debt passed $35 trillion today. It's hard to grasp how enormous that number is, so let's put it in perspective. Think in terms of seconds, because time is something we all understand. One million seconds is about 11.57 days. One billion seconds is approximately 31.71

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

For the people who can't be damned to read my whole post, here's an important excerpt from it: "In general, it seems that sentiment is still very bullish overall. This is because of the "long the dip" conditioning. Over a period of 50 days, longing the dip was rewarded:

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

7 months

This is playing out in real-time now imo. As time goes on the upper and lower bounds of the consolidation area will become more evident. I have updated the chart slightly to display this. It could still be even lower but for now, let's work with what we got. As I've said in my

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 month

I’m back in BUIDL mode. Best use of time with this price action. Going to come out of this on the other end with some statistics that will blow your socks off. Will be a little less active while in monk mode.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 year

@rovercrc Ah yes, the good old trendline. The easiest way to rek crypto youtubers and their followings.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

@gembler @hyooktrades @wojak Not trying to bust your dream here but retiring 2 people and buying a house on 500k seems a little tight. And that’s taking into account that you are not taking anything yourself. Probably better to find good ways to invest and grow this money over time (not degen trading).

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

4 months

@DaanCrypto The Germans have been making bad decisions for decades. Now they are selling BTC at discounted areas. Bullish.

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

2 months

$BTC Here's how often each session has put either a daily high or daily low over the last 2 years (50-day moving average). London is an all-round loser when it comes to putting in daily highs or lows. NY and Asia session are the clear winners over time. Lately, however, the

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

10 days

The first release of this BUIDL Mode development sprint will drop tomorrow: the BETA version of the FVG Magnet feature. This feature will give insights as to how long it usually takes to tap/fill/reverse a Fair Value Gap and how far price usually moves away from the FVG before

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

1 month

As mentioned I am in BUIDL mode and therefore less active on X. As a sneak preview as to what I am working on, 7 days ago I posted that it was likely that we were going to fill the FVGs at 62k and 63k within a week: Fast forward to 7 days later, we can see that the first Fair

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

9 months

@BenArmstrongsX

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

2 months

$BTC GM all! In the quoted post I said that most likely we will be forming a local range and price will need some time to recover from that massive drop we had. This is because history has shown that such aggressive drops lead to long consolidations before making another move

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

$BTC I marked out all the days since late 2018 that saw a similar drop on the daily as we saw last Monday (-16% or more) on this chart below. Pay special attention to what happens after these drops. Usually, price ranges for a while until making another move. I have alluded to

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC Price seems to be heading lower as expected, so let's review this and play some 4D Chess with statistics. We have already statistically established that: - The weekly high is a strong weekly high - The weekly low is a weak weekly low Please read the quoted posts to see

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

6 months

$BTC Price already moved lower and now we have a total displacement of -6.72% for the week (instead of the -5.89% we had before taking the weekly low). We can plug these new numbers into the data and see that 83.3% of the (bearish) weeks have a bigger bearish displacement than

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

2 months

@Luckshuryy For people who are curious about how infrequently London puts in the daily high or daily low, here is the data for the last 3 years or so. It's a very low-probability time to put in a pivot:

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

2 months

And there we go, $BTC and many other alts took out their weekly lows. The "Exhausted Bears" are now appearing everywhere on the dashboard for the weekly TF, indicating that we experienced further downward movement across the board as expected. Another good week for the

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

2 months

The conclusion during the stream was the following: look for some higher prices during the day, followed by lower prices for the week. After we got that upward movement today, it now seems like the weekly bias for lower prices is starting to play out. You can check the stream

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

$BTC "This would not be a weird place to either range for a while or retrace a bit further down to put in a HL before taking the liquidity that's left above the highs." The retrace is happening. I still believe this downside is temporary and price will be looking to put in a

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@sergio_tesla_

Sergio Tesla

3 months

$BTC A lot of the liquidity (to the upside) I mentioned 3 weeks ago has now been taken, yet plenty still remains. This would not be a weird place to either range for a while or retrace a bit further down to put in a HL before taking the liquidity that's left above the

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