Founder of Positive Sum Strategies. Founded
@DataProgress
. I work with companies and non-profits to achieve ambitious policy goals. seanadrianmc @ gmail
A lot of people criticize this but complaining about government spending while directly benefiting from it is the only true way to honor Ayn Rand's legacy.
seems like a good time for the government to spend a few trillion interest-free dollars creating millions of well-paying union jobs building a green economy.
Warren as Vice President would ensure that the policies progressives are pushing for Biden to embrace would be backed up with personnel. She's the most progressive option on the table. Not sure why people are shooting themselves in the foot here.
The Biden campaign announced a 2035 clean electricity standard and a commitment to 40% climate investments in communities of color today. Massive, massive wins for the environmental justice and climate movements. I promise it's more important than the other discourses occurring.
The overwhelming majority of Sanders supporters (61%) say they would be more likely to support Biden if Warren was his VP in a new
@DataProgress
poll. Only 9% say less likely. That’s dramatically higher than anyone else tested.
There is a religious left movement led by a pastor in North Carolina that has fought for *seven* years for trans rights, repoductive rights, civil rights, Medicaid expansion and voting rights. How do leftists expect to win black voters when they ignore these movements?
The weirdest thing about this scandal is that Lipinski famously refuses to pay dues (he doesn’t support giving money to pro-choice Democrats) and the DCCC has not only backed him against his primary challenger but is blacklisting vendors who work for him.
I give quite a bit to fellow Dems - we’ve fundraised over $300,000 for others (more than my “dues”), w/ over 50% going to swing seats.
DCCC made clear that they will blacklist any org that helps progressive candidates like me. I can choose not to fund that kind of exclusion.
The post-election sniping from the center is obscuring the fundamental problem for Democrats: consecutive D+2, D+8 and D+5 elections amount to a Senate minority and the barest majority in the House. It is likely that two more solidly D elections would erode Senate margin further.
The general election is going to be incredibly tough no matter who the nominee is, but the Republican Party trying to use the Supreme Court to strip health insurance from millions of people during a pandemic strikes me as a massive unforced error.
It's weird how much the popularism debate focuses on progressives when Sinema is trying to kill prescription drug reform, taxes on the wealthy and Medicare vision and dental which every poll shows are the most popular parts of the Biden agenda.
The very Republican voters of Kansas voted for a Democratic Governor because the Republican incumbent cut funding for schools so much the state Supreme Court ruled it violated the Constitution and refused to expand Medicaid to hundreds of thousands of low-income people.
You can really see how the Democratic reliance on suburbs is forcing them to tilt their policies to affluent voters while the Republican party is embracing populism to win over the white working class.
The top 20% of households reaped 65% of benefit from Trump’s tax cuts. The bottom 20% got 1%.
The American Rescue Plan gives aid to those who actually need it. My
@Morning_Joe
chart:
All of the defenses of Sinema are like "you need to appeal to moderate and independent voters" but "helping pharmaceutical companies" and "leaving Congress during negotiations to chill with donors" are not the traditional mechanisms for appealing to independent voters.
This is how McConnell wins: he's killing wildly popular prescription drug legislation right now on behalf of his wealthy donors and it's virtually impossible to find media coverage of it.
NEW from
@DataProgress
: 52% of voters support and 24% oppose banning members of Congress from individual stock ownership.
@ewarren
included the ban in her anti-corruption plan.
The most recent
@DataProgress
coronavirus tracking poll found that only 22% of Americans support prioritizing judges over coronavirus relief. Even among Republicans, voters say coronavirus relief is more important than judges.
lincoln project budget is tiny. their ads aren’t designed to be seen by voters, they’re designed for high engagement twitter users, one of which happens to be the president and the rest being journalists
Just thinking how the $30 billion the White House requested for pandemic preparedness got slashed to less than $3 billion in the final reconciliation bill.
Five quick tweets on the new variant B.1.1.529
Caveat first: data here is *very* preliminary, so everything could change. Nonetheless, better safe than sorry.
1) Based on the data we have, this variant is out-competing others *far* faster than Beta and even Delta did 🚩🚩
Biden is on track to win the same number of electoral college votes as Trump while winning the popular vote by a seven point larger margin (-2 to ~+5) so, yes.
I don’t think the establishment has fully processed how bad Super Tuesday will be for them. They’ve created a wildly inefficient delegate allocation situation where Sanders will collect delegates everywhere and all of their candidates struggle to meet thresholds.
I’m beginning to think that spending the entire election telling your base not to take advantage of all the reforms that make it easier to vote at their convenience may have been tactically unwise.
Warren and her staff have focused for years on building progressive left institutions to transform the Democratic Party. That long work will continue long after this campaign and
@DataProgress
will be a part of it. Right now we need a united progressive front to win this primary.
In the first Build Back Better plan, the White House requested $30 billion for pandemic preparedness. Congress has whittled that number down to less than $3 billion, meaning we won't have the vaccines, PPE and diagnostics to fight the next pandemic.
Millennials are dramatically more liberal than past generations. Eight years of panel data suggests they have not become more conservative as they have gotten older, and have become more liberal on race + immigration. My latest with
@ColinJMcAuliffe
.
Everyone is a social democrat in a crisis. At the beginning of the month
@DataProgress
tested $1,000 checks:
33% of voters in support and 48% opposed.
We tested in again this week:
58% support, 26% opposed. Testing bigger $$ numbers now.
.
@tomperriello
hits at something that has me tearing my hair out about Sinema's position on Build Back Better: there is no coordinated opposition to the bill, no Tea Party movement, no $100 million spend against it. Sinema's position is not a re-election calculus, it's nihilism.
I think people are overlearning the "teflon don" lesson. It's certainly true that a lot of things that people thought would hurt him haven't, but that's mostly because none of his mistakes have caused a massive election year recession.
This is exactly correct. That’s why I’m calling on all MAGA patriots to move to California so we can end this madness. If just 3 million of my fellow conservatives move from New Hampshire, Maine, and Montana we can flip California and deliver a landslide win in 2024.
@DavidKlion
The most likely options on the table are Warren, Harris, Klobuchar and Whitmer. Warren is the most likely to ensure the things Bernie wants to happen happen, and Sanders supporters are letting their feelings get in the way of actual policy. Don't pretend it's something else.
If you’ve ever scrambled to put together an unemployment extension you knew was coming for four months, you’ll understand why arbitrary 30 day registration deadlines disenfranchise millions of voters.
Semi-regular reminder that a judge ruled that the Trump administration could not kick 700,000 people off of food stamps in the middle of a pandemic and the Trump administration is APPEALING that decision right now.
Kyrsten Sinema opposes ending the filibuster and increasing the minimum wage. New
@DataProgress
polling featured in
@voxdotcom
shows that a majority of Arizona voters disagree.
New
@DataProgress
polling finds that by a 17 point margin, voters support cancelling $50,000 of student debt. Difference between $50,000 and $10,000 is within margin of error, so no evidence smaller cancelation creates political benefits.
One of the few weaknesses for Biden is excitement among young voters. A new
@DataProgress
+
@Civiqs
battleground survey shows that
@ewarren
is the overwhelming preference of 18-34 year old battleground voters. New from
@karavoght
.
This is a smart play by Sanders for two reasons:
1) Makes the case that suburban voters have more to gain from taxing the rich for broad based social democracy than Trump's tax cuts for corporations
2) Gives news organizations an excuse to use this picture
A lot of liberals think it's bad that Democrats can win elections by massive margins and still not control the Senate or Supreme Court. But imagine knowing that however many elections you won you would never feel your cultural values were fairly represented on HBO.
On the
@DataProgress
blog,
@SenSchumer
blasts deficit scolding on the right regarding $2,000 checks.
"These are the same Republicans who added $2 trillion to the deficit in order to give massive tax breaks to billionaires and large corporations."
Biden’s support for Social Security cuts is the most dangerous for him because it shows where his desire to always make a deal with Republicans will lead and his team can’t just make it go away by saying “Twitter is not real life.” Democratic voters really like Social Security.
We are currently ahead in the Minnesota Senate race by 5 points with an incumbent on the ballot. Senate control is narrowly in balance. If we want any chance to take the Senate this cycle or next, this is not a risk we should take.
the north carolina senate race is pretty good evidence that the revealed preference of voters is for more policy-related coverage on healthcare, coronavirus etc. ultimately, voters are rejecting tillis on those grounds and the media is doing a disservice by not focusing on them
for all the debate about canvassing vs tv the big lesson from 2016 should be that how the media covers your campaign matters more than paid interventions and earned media for biden is much better than it was for clinton and '20 trump gets much worse earned media than '16 trump
It really seems that the media is manufacturing the border story to inflate ratings and give the GOP a boost to level the playing field after the overwhelming popularity of the American Rescue Plan.
Warren is top Vice President pick for likely Democratic and independent voters in Michigan and Wisconsin. She is the best pick to unite the party and implement the progressive unity policies that the Biden/Sanders task forces decide on.
The thing people are missing about the Bowman race is how sophisticated the primary challenges are becoming.
Primary candidates now are often better managed (and have better polling), with the ability to raise toe-to-toe and go up with matching IEs with more effective ads.
Wow. Mondaire Jones (D) races out to a 42%-15%-15% lead over Evelyn Farkas (D) and Adam Schleifer (D) in
#NY17
.
Just a few months ago, Jones was a long-shot progressive challenger to Appropriations Chair Nita Lowey (D). Now, he's the strong favorite to succeed her.
it’s genuinely funny that whatever ghouls fund the federalist are now on the hook for tens of thousands of legal fees so meghan mccain’s husband doesn’t have to delete his shitposts
New
@DataProgress
poll shows that
@ewarren
is the top Vice President pick for Democratic voters and is the pick that voters view as most prepared to be President, across all demographic groups.
Warren is top pick across demographic groups for Vice President. Voters say most important quality in a VP is ready to be President, and in the latest
@DataProgress
Warren leads there considerably. The polling is consistently showing a strong preference for Warren among D voters.
Support for
@AOC
's proposal for a 70% tax rate on income over $10 million, by age group:
18-29: 65% support, 19% oppose (+46)
30-44: 52/33 (+19)
45-54: 53/34 (+19)
55-64: 47/45 (+2)
65+: 40/43 (-3)
People aren't ready for the future of American politics.
So far cabinet picks have been solid for progressives. Yellen is close with Warren and imposed harsh sanctions on Wells Fargo following their fake account scandal. Now we need to keep Reed out of OMB and fight for Haaland at Interior and Chopra at FTC.
Joe Biden has selected former Fed chair Janet Yellen to serve as the Treasury secretary
She would be the 78th secretary of the Treasury and the first woman to have the job w/
@KateDavidson
We're a dozen major news cycles away from the election. Given the impact of the last two dozen, the default take should be these cycles have a null effect until proven otherwise. I realize this makes for boring election takes, but in terms of polling, it's been a boring election.
New
@DataProgress
polling:
Voters support ending the filibuster 43% - 29%
Voters support ending the filibuster to pass voting rights legislation 53% - 25%
I really don’t think dramatically increasing your chance of losing a primary to raise $1m from the most despised industry on the planet is a particularly savvy political play.
Republican pollster finds majority support for abortion rights, gun control, gay marriage, government guaranteeing healthcare, tax hikes on the rich and environmental regulations as well as plurality support for a $15 minimum wage.
To determine where voters were on the quadrant, we asked if they agreed more with the liberal or conservative stance on a variety of cultural and economic issues.
Some fresh
@DataProgress
polls (including some in under-polled states).
PRES (Biden margin):
National +10
TX +1
NC +2
CO +12
AZ +3
VA +11
AL -20
SENATE (D margin):
TX -3
NC +5
CO +9
AZ +8
VA +15
AL -12
@NathanJRobinson
The CFPB has delivered concrete and real gains for the poorest and most vulnerable Americans. Shitting on it because you're mad about the 2020 primary doesn't really help advance the idea that the left is invested in material gains for working class people instead of online beef.
These GA-SEN run-offs don’t decide the Senate for two years, they will probably decide the Senate for four to six years. Money directly to candidates is the best way for most donors to maximize value.
Sources: The State Senate will pass the Automatic Voter Registration bill on Thursday. The Assembly will follow shortly after.
The AVR bill was pulled at the 11th hour last year because it did not comport with
#GreenLightNY
Supporters say that technical hurdle has been lifted
The is a generation defining crisis.
Among Americans under 45, 52 percent have lost their job, had hours cut or have been placed on leave.
1 in 4 will be unable to pay their bills this week.
There are some reasons to be skeptical of a 2016 polling error (or think it may go opposite direction), but the biggest is media coverage. Late earned media in 2016 validated R critique of Clinton (Comey letter), earned media now validates D critique of Trump (coronavirus spike).
We shouldn't be cutting the Postal Service, we should be expanding its role.
@SenGillibrand
makes the case for Postal Banking, with
@DataProgress
polling.
increasing the gas tax is more unpopular than defunding the police. when will moderates stop pushing these highly salient, highly unpopular ideas that spell electoral doom!
New from
@DataProgress
and
@InvestNowUSA
on the most popular way to pay for infrastructure:
Close corporate tax loopholes: 74% support
Increasing taxes on capital gains: 69% support
Increasing taxes on rich: 65%
User fees: 25%
Increase the gas tax: 21%
Republicans (with lots of help from the media) have managed to muddy the water on a number of their actual policy positions, and that's bad for democracy. Great
@EthanBWinter
analysis.