Ruby Osman @rubyosman_ Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Ruby Osman

@rubyosman_

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Senior geopolitical researcher and China lead @InstituteGC . Aspiring fire warden. All views my own.

Joined March 2022

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

The run-up to Party Congress is Beijing's silly season. But for all the talk of coups, Xi's not going anywhere. Ignore the rumour mill - here's what you should actually be looking out for as Beijing gears up for the political event of the decade. (1/7)

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All Eyes on the Chinese Communist Party Congress: A Guide for Western Policymakers

All Eyes on the Chinese Communist Party Congress: A Guide for Western Policymakers

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

“China seems to be reaching a critical mass - not just of outright protest, but of people asking sensible questions the state just doesn’t have answers to” Great to talk on @BBCNews today about how China can start to find an exit strategy from zero-Covid.

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

3 years

The good news is China has a vested interest in peace in Ukraine. The bad news is it can't afford to be seen as succumbing to US pressure. Our latest paper looks at what it would take to draw Xi away from his "friend without limits"

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

Ah yes the entirely reasonable approach of somehow magicking up a new China strategy while simultaneously gutting the UK’s already abysmal language capacity 🙃

@RishiSunak

Rishi Sunak

2 years

2/ I would close all 30 of China’s Confucius Institutes in the UK - the highest number in the world. Almost all UK government spending on Mandarin language teaching at school is channelled through university-based Confucius Institutes, thereby promoting Chinese soft power.

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

1 year

Excited to share my latest for @TIME on why we're still getting the BRI wrong ten years on - and how to avoid making the same mistakes with China's ambitious new Global Initiatives.

@TIME

TIME

1 year

As China celebrates a decade of the Belt and Road Initiative, the flagship international infrastructure investment project looks to take a backseat to a new set of foreign-policy initiatives

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

11 months

Strong contender for some of the all-time best political live tweeting

@brianhioe

Brian Hioe 丘琦欣

11 months

Ma Ying-jeou has now accompanied Hou You-yi to the Grand Hyatt

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Ruby Osman

1 year

Cleverly's just landed in Beijing. This is the first visit from a UK FM in five years - and the first since we left the EU. He'll have to face an uncomfortable truth: We think about China much more than China thinks about us. (1/6)

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

So excited to be published in @TIME ! I argue that polarisation, not outright protest, will be the main outcome of Shanghai's lockdowns - and that's going to throw up a whole new set of challenges for a government used to unanimous support

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The Chinese Public May Finally Have Had Enough of the Government's Zero-COVID Approach

As China continues to pursue its zero-COVID policy, the public is beginning to become polarized over the country's strategy

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

Macron and von der Leyen have just touched down in China for a visit they claim will make Xi reconsider his position on the war in Ukraine. Here's why that's unlikely - and what might be on the table instead (1/9)

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

Such a privilege to speak at the #FutureOfBritain conference yesterday on how the UK can get smarter on geopolitics - huge thanks to everyone that made it happen!

@InstituteGC

Tony Blair Institute for Global Change

2 years

What can the UK offer the world that the big superpowers can’t or won’t? TBI's @rubyosman_ asking the right questions at #FutureOfBritain . What do you think? Tell us in the comments ⬇️ and tune into the conference, happening now:

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Ruby Osman

2 years

Fascinating op-ed from Putin in today's People's Daily. Putin: - Claims "Russia is open to the political and diplomatic resolution of the Ukraine crisis" - Praises a "future-looking partnership" with his "good old friend" Xi - And, of course, quotes Confucius

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Ruby Osman

2 years

Great to speak on @NickFerrariLBC this morning on how Xi is using his Putin visit to advertise China as a new sort of global superpower.

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

Very excited for this - come join @StephenMcDonell , @DSORennie and I as we unpack what Xi’s clean sweep means for where China goes next. 👇

@BritChamChina

British Chamber of Commerce in China

2 years

The British Chamber will be joined by @StephenMcDonell , @rubyosman_ and @DSORennie next week as we break down the outcomes and implications of the 20th Party Congress. Click below to register now - FREE for BritCham members!

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Ruby Osman

1 year

Surprised this hasn’t got more pick up. A letter from Xi himself celebrating UK trade just 3 days after HK warrants. Beijing clearly courting UK business but happy to provoke Parliament - will be interesting to see if this more economics, less politics approach gets traction

@BeijingToBrit

💥Beijing to Britain💥

1 year

NEW: On July 6, 2023, President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory letter on the 70th anniversary of the China-UK trade "ice-breaking journey" [Google translate in pic one, original in pic two]

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

1 year

Great to speak to @SCMPNews on the tough balancing act of Cleverly's Beijing trip. “The Conservatives have the full spectrum of views from China hawks to pro-business "golden era" MPs. It can be a challenge in making a policy that suits them"

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Cleverly to become first UK foreign secretary to visit China in 5 years

The visit expected to take place next Tuesday or Wednesday will be a key test of Rishi Sunak’s attempts to ‘evolve’ British policies towards China

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

As China reopens, 15 countries - the UK included - are imposing travel restrictions to prevent new variants spreading. Here's why the science shows that's a mistake - and what we should be doing instead 👇 (1/4)

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Why the International Response to China’s Covid Wave Must Be Based on Fact, Not Fear

Why the International Response to China’s Covid Wave Must Be Based on Fact, Not Fear

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

Putin’s Black Sea blockade is bad enough, but it pales in comparison to what could happen next year if we don’t ensure farmers’ access to the fertilisers the world needs for next year’s harvests.

@ProSyn

Project Syndicate

2 years

The world is currently facing a food pricing crisis, note @rubyosman_ and @jakedelorme_ of @InstituteGC . But by this time next year, there may well be a food-availability crisis.

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Ruby Osman

2 years

Quality not quantity with @EddieKnight98 ’s tweets - come join us tomorrow to find out what the Party Congress means for Europe!

@EddieKnight98

Eddie Knight / 古波

2 years

My second ever tweet. Join me and my esteemed colleague @rubyosman_ for a run through of all the key takeaways from the 20th party congress with a focus on Europe - hosted by @BCECC . The webinar starts 10:00 GMT. Register using the link in the tweet below⬇️

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

If we want to fight back against Putin's propaganda machine, the key is keeping the argument economic, not cultural. We need to show that Putin is failing to deliver on his fundamental promise: making life better for his people.

@ryan_wain

Ryan Wain

2 years

Bloodshed in Ukraine won’t end until the Russian people call for it. This is the ultimate pressure valve on Putin. Alongside sanctions & weapons, the West must reach beyond a new iron curtain. Today’s paper from @InstituteGC supported by @jnpowell1 sets out how. 👇🧵(1/8)

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

But whatever happens, don't expect any major course correction post-Congress. Despite the rumours, this isn't about Xi fighting a coherent opposition. It's about how much he can reshape the norms of his party to suit his own vision of China.

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

1 year

Great job, even better boss in @brianna_kmiller ’s Research and Data unit

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Ruby Osman

3 years

This is a real strategic opportunity for both China and the West - if they can swallow their pride. Both sides make big promises to the rest of the world. Now is the time to live up to them.

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Ruby Osman

2 years

Some fantastic opportunities here - come join us!

@OxChinaPolicy

Oxford China Policy Lab

2 years

Interested in working on bridging the academia-policy gap among China researchers? We’re looking to bring on a coordinator for the UK-China Policy Forum and Spring 2023 Research Fellow. Learn more here:

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Ruby Osman

2 years

This includes Li Keqiang's successor as China's number two. Unusually, there's no candidate for Premier who ticks all the right boxes. Any pick will be norm-breaking. But WHICH norm is broken will be particularly revealing.

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

Keep an eye on these norms. It's clear Xi himself will ignore the unofficial retirement age, but recent regulations could pave the way for other high-profile exceptions, potentially letting Xi retain key allies and technocrats.

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Ruby Osman

1 year

Powerful evisceration of @_emilyjolliffe lunches

@RADII_Media

RADII

1 year

China’s internet has recently been buzzing with a new trend — the so-called ‘White People Food.’

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

For more on all of this, check out our deep-dive into what to watch over the next few weeks - and follow @EddieKnight98 for even more Party Congress insight!

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All Eyes on the Chinese Communist Party Congress: A Guide for Western Policymakers

All Eyes on the Chinese Communist Party Congress: A Guide for Western Policymakers

institute.global

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Ruby Osman

2 years

A huge win for Beijing - Wang Yi may have got flack for his detail-light Ukraine position paper, but you couldn’t ask for much better proof that Chinese diplomacy can deliver

@WSJ

The Wall Street Journal

2 years

Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to resume diplomatic relations in a deal brokered by China, ending seven years of estrangement

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Ruby Osman

2 years

The real question is who comes under him. Big chunks of top leadership will be reappointed - their replacements are where we'll get a sense of the balance of power. Party elites have spent months scrambling to ensure their picks come out on top.

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Ruby Osman

2 years

To an outside eye, Xi's leadership is facing a perfect storm of crises. Think zero-Covid, a struggling economy and Beijing's relationship with Moscow. But what's bad for the country isn't necessarily bad for Xi. All signs point to Xi's third-term being a dead cert.

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

Secrecy is key. The exact mechanics of appointing the CCP's top positions are carefully guarded - don't believe any one who tells you they know exactly what's going on behind closed doors. But there are some things we can figure out:

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Ruby Osman

2 years

Fab new briefing from @kittymant - our expert on all things aid AND the only member of the TBI geopolitical team to escape the Christmas party flu 🤩

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Ruby Osman

3 years

This is easier said than done, but we should be: 🇪🇺 Enhancing the EU's role. China slams the US but praises the EU. European leaders should be spearheading co-operation. 🚩Making our red lines - and consequences for crossing them - clear on energy, sanctions and disinformation

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Ruby Osman

2 years

But there's no hope of substantially moving the dial. Beijing absolutely wants better EU relations, but not enough to compromise its position with Moscow, third-party countries and it’s own people. To both Brussel and Moscow’s frustration, China is unlikely to budge either way.

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Ruby Osman

1 year

Some more thoughts in @SCMPNews below on why even if we won't see many deliverables, this trip is a much-needed first step to working out exactly what the UK wants from its relationship with China. (6/6)

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Cleverly to become first UK foreign secretary to visit China in 5 years

The visit expected to take place next Tuesday or Wednesday will be a key test of Rishi Sunak’s attempts to ‘evolve’ British policies towards China

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

1 year

Great as ever from @jakedelorme_ on the Maldives election. And if anyone needs some on-the-ground insight on the potential for a China pivot, I’m selflessly ready to fly out whenever 🫡

@jakedelorme_

Jacob Delorme

1 year

...The Maldives is host to a geopolitical struggle between 🇮🇳 and 🇨🇳, with each candidate favouring interaction with one country over the other. Solih has operated an "India First" policy, where Muizzu has pledged to remove the 🇮🇳troops stationed in 🇲🇻 and move closer to China.

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Ruby Osman

2 years

It's true the EU has leverage the US doesn't on Ukraine. Maybe Macron and VDL will be able to appeal to China's peacemaker pitch and get Xi to agree to a call with Zelensky.

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Ruby Osman

2 years

But VDL might not feel the same. Macron's delegation of business leaders will be keen to strike deals, but VDL warned against a "more assertive" China last week. Behind their seemingly united front, Europe is split on how far it can engage a post-Covid China.

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

1 year

Join us at 9 today to look at what’s next for the UK’s Indo-Pacific tilt!

@RUSI_org

RUSI

1 year

📅The UK's recent accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is a significant step in the country's Indo-Pacific strategy. Join us on 14 June to discuss the benefits and challenges.

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Ruby Osman

2 years

New blog from @EddieKnight98 and I on what comes next after Xi’s success - and why it’s so important to admit what we don’t know 👇

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Friends in High Places: What We Know - and What We Don't - After Xi's Clean Sweep

Friends in High Places: What We Know - and What We Don't - After Xi's Clean Sweep

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

Instead, Beijing will be keen to encourage Macron's "strategic autonomy". Post-Merkel, Macron is increasingly a favourite in Beijing for his willingness to put distance between Paris and Washington.

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

Don't believe anyone who tells you this marks the end for Xi. There's still, quite rightly, huge pride in what China's zero-Covid approach has achieved. But a real - and growing - sceptical minority will be an unwelcome addition to Beijing's already delicate balancing act.

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Ruby Osman

2 years

Really important to be thinking about - a Chinese invasion of Taiwan wouldn’t have the same impact on food security, but Beijing has WAY more economic/tech levers it could pull to get smaller countries to fall into line

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Ruby Osman

2 years

As @thomasdggeddes puts it in his fantastic newsletter today: "Providing Europe's main advocate of strategic autonomy with a few economic and political gains would make sense”

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Ruby Osman

2 years

Last but not least - the question of what's literally on the table. Xi has promised Macron a special dinner at a surprise venue in Guangzhou - @EddieKnight98 and I are still taking predictions for our menu sweepstakes.

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Ruby Osman

2 years

So what's the answer? Surveillance and sequencing (and maybe even testing airplane sewage...) China's Covid wave should be a wake-up call that we need to be investing in, not dismantling, surveillance systems that work on a global scale.

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

There's no easy solution. If you claim Omicron is almost always mild, how do you justify the world's strictest lockdown measures? And if you under-report deaths to keep the public calm, how do you encourage 17 million unvaccinated over-80s to come forward for their jabs?

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

3 years

Putin has left China in a bind - how do you balance support for a key ally while sticking up for Ukraine's sovereignty? How do you protect your economic interests across the EU, Ukraine and Russia?

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Ruby Osman

1 year

Surely China’s “epoch defining challenge” deserves some epoch-defining thinking? Some thoughts from @EddieKnight98 and I - as well the fantastic @DrWinnieKing - for UKNCC on why the UK’s China strategy has further to go.

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

3 years

China knows that peace is the best solution to its dilemma. Xi doesn't have some magic leverage over Putin, but we still need to be taking China up on its offer to support peace talks - and making sure its not helping Russia drag out the conflict.

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

Fascinating polling on Chinese attitudes to the war in Ukraine. Big support for a Chinese role in mediating peace but - worryingly - even bigger buy-in to Russia's anti-US conspiracy theories.

@MichaelBCerny

Michael Cerny

2 years

What does the Chinese public think about Russia's invasion of Ukraine? We at @uscnpm (cc: @yawei_liu1960 ) conducted a survey with @RIWIdata to find out. Here are some of my thoughts. Thread 1/n.

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Ruby Osman

1 year

Instead, Cleverly should be using his trip as a sounding board. A smart China strategy can't be formulated in Westminster alone - dialogue doesn't make you a "Chinese stooge" (5/6)

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James Cleverly derided as a ‘stooge’ who dances to China’s tune

Foreign Secretary hits back at ‘nonsense’ claims as Chris Bryant tells him: ‘You just do what they want’

www.telegraph.co.uk

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

1 year

Russia Today really revelling in the Foreign Affairs Committee calling Taiwan "independent" on Weibo today 🫠 Headline: "What are their intentions? British parliament plays up Taiwan independence during the Foreign Minister's China visit"

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

Politically, travel restrictions don't make sense either. This week's alarmist headlines will stoke discrimination against Chinese communities and cause unnecessary tensions with Beijing.

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Ruby Osman

2 years

So don't expect much progress on the stalled China-EU trade deal. Reviving the CAI is Beijing’s dream - to the point it’s reportedly considering lifting the sanctions holding it up. But VDL was clear that EU members need time to reassess their China links

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Despite Beijing’s Charm Offensive, the EU-China Investment Agreement Is Not Coming Back | CSIS

To repair its reputation in Europe amid strong ties with Moscow, Beijing is highlighting the benefits of closer economic ties. But efforts to resuscitate a sweeping 2020 bilateral investment agreem...

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

Macron reportedly wants to avoid discussing Taiwan - and it looks like Beijing does too. China's response to Tsai Ing-Wen's US visit has been unusually restrained. But keep an eye out for anything from her visit that could force the issue onto the table

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Taiwan defends Tsai meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy

China threatens to retaliate over encounter it views as a ‘provocation’

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

New subvariants are inevitable as the virus reaches 1.4 billion new people. But Chinese variants are likely to struggle beyond China's borders. In fact at the moment, the most worrying new subvariants are coming from the US, not China.

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Ruby Osman

11 months

@_emilyjolliffe Actually they were made for me ☺️☺️

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Ruby Osman

2 years

V interesting plug for China’s Global Security Initiative too - Saudi officials seemed to side-step China’s invite to join the GSI during Xi’s Riyadh trip. Presumably will be much harder to now.

@EddieKnight98

Eddie Knight / 古波

2 years

Quick translation of the Chinese press release for Wang Yi announcing the resumption of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran. A big win for China and Wang Yi - key points for me in the detail are the references to Ukraine and the GSI Original -

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Ruby Osman

1 year

That means Cleverly is going to struggle to get Xinjiang sanctions on MPs lifted. Beijing was reportedly considering doing so for EU MEPs. But the UK doesn't have a big trade deal Beijing is looking to unfreeze (2/6)

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EU parliament ‘freezes’ China trade deal over sanctions

Tit-for-tat sanctions over Beijing’s treatment of Uyghurs puts halt on investment agreement

www.theguardian.com

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Ruby Osman

3 years

@DanielSleat @emmamcnicholas To be fair, I have eaten a lot of kebabs there

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Ruby Osman

2 years

Putin really knows his audience. There's a lot of shout outs for Chinese initiatives and concepts - GSI included. Ukraine only comes up right at the end. Putin knows China and Russia have more in common on the big goal of pushing back against US-dominance than on Ukraine itself

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

1 year

Way too often when we talk about the global impact of great power competition we overlook the agency of African govs. Some great insight from @EddieKnight98 here on the different ways African leaders are leveraging their positions.

@EddieKnight98

Eddie Knight / 古波

1 year

"US-China competition is not inherently bad for Africa, nor inherently good... it really depends on how African governments engage" Pleased to be quoted in this article on the implications of US-China tension in Africa by @clynchharry for @AfricanBizMag

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Ruby Osman

1 year

And focusing on common ground - like climate or Ukraine peace talks - will have just got tougher given the Foreign Affairs Committee has today called Taiwan an "independent country". (3/6)

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UK parliament calls Taiwan ‘independent country’ as Cleverly visits China

‘Taiwan possesses all the qualifications for statehood,’ a parliamentary committee report says.

www.politico.eu

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

Huge thanks to @DanielSleat , @brianna_kmiller and @Adam__Bradshaw for their help on this piece!

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Ruby Osman

2 years

English version here: And good to see Putin was taught the exact same Confucius quote as every first year Chinese student -"It is always a pleasure to greet a friend from afar/有朋自远方来，不亦乐乎"

Vladimir Putin’s Article for People’s Daily Newspaper, Russia and China: A Future-Bound Partnership

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Ruby Osman

1 year

Expect Beijing to drive home its view that the UK has to choose between following the US or EU. Cleverly should stand his ground here - the choice isn't quite that simple (4/6)

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Ruby Osman

2 years

China’s also got a far more compelling narrative on south-south cooperation than Russia - it’s spent decades championing the interests of developing countries and in many cases has been a genuinely better partner than the West. How can you counter that?

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Ruby Osman

2 years

The core of the solution is probably still the same: 1. Don’t waste finite diplomatic capital asking small countries to pick a side - often at huge personal cost 2.Invest in self-sufficiency. Make sure developing countries aren’t over-reliant on China - or any single actor.

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Ruby Osman

1 year

@DrWinnieKing @UkCommittee @AndrewCainey Great piece!

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Ruby Osman

2 years

@jeegarkakkad @EddieKnight98 Gone but not forgotten 🥹🥹

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Ruby Osman

11 months

@EddieKnight98 lives rent-free in my head

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Ruby Osman

2 years

@DanielSleat @nseskuria @jnpowell1 It’ll be interesting to see if Zelensky brings it up in his call with Xi, but given Russia, China, Ukraine (and the US!) all aren’t ICC members I wouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t factor that much in Xi’s conversations.

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Ruby Osman

2 years

@DanielSleat @nseskuria @jnpowell1 It’s a good q - I don’t think either Xi or Putin will be rushing to bring it up (especially as neither are part of the ICC) But this is definitely an unwelcome shadow over the visit for Xi - he wants the story to be China as peacemaker, not China visits a war criminal

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@rubyosman_

Ruby Osman

2 years

@EditorBTB Huge if true!

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Ruby Osman

2 years

“The virus could end up trapped in the very country that tried to keep it out the longest” Great article on the science of what could happen when Covid finally reaches more than a billion unexposed people.

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China’s COVID Wave Is Coming

The world’s most populous nation is being forced onto a zero-COVID off-ramp.

www.theatlantic.com

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Ruby Osman

2 years

@KaylaBlomquist3 @Scott_R_Singer Congrats Kayla!! X

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Ruby Osman

2 years

@EddieKnight98 Friday afternoon tweeting spree

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Ruby Osman

2 years

@jakedelorme_ @EddieKnight98 Third time’s a charm

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Ruby Osman

1 year

@EditorBTB Powerful subtweet of @EddieKnight98

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