In mid-2020 we bought
#Solana
(tech, mkt misread of unlock) and
#LUNA
(growing ecosystem was trading at a discount to most smallish eth defi apps ๐คช) and in early 2021
#MATIC
(clear they had jump on small-ticket defi surge)...
Reasons for this tweet ๐
Strong market!
Just had to survive the collapse of a top-5 protocol, the largest crypto hedge fund, the entire institutional lending market, one of the biggest exchanges, the US crypto-friendly banking network and various hacking attempts from state-backed parties to enjoy it!
Imagine being a fund that started the year with its biggest exposures in SoLunAvax (well, actually MATIC as well) at start of the year - what do you tell LPs?
Notice how most 3AC/other lenders' tradfi creditors haven't been paid anything yet (even c/$) but defi creditors were paid in-full months ago as it all unwound?
DeFi has its own risks but re ranking it's kinda super-senior credit
I note a weird thing to consider on a bulla day
#Bitcoin
is too small for it's purpose. A global hedge asset cant only be $360bn - if it is digital gold, needs to be much bigger. Given fixed supply, price is the only path to make that happen. As consensus builds around the digital gold thesis price is reflecting this reality
The markets (misplaced) fear of always being "exit liquidity" has created one of the most profitable strategies over last 18 months. Risks differ based on quality of underlying, owner base etc, but still...
FYI AVAX's final vesting for the 50c round was in September, ~$100 ago.
Coinbase has GBTC's coins.
"But they only showed a statement!!!"
If people so worried about the typical process of trust (regulated companies providing pieces of paper) why they buy GBTC, and not BTC, in the first place?
Not everything is a fraud fyi.
@BRyvkin
@RitaPanahi
My Government (Australia) classified it as a pandemic two weeks ahead of WHO and against WHO's advice (WHO had its head in the sand and almost everyone knew it at the time) - so YouTube would censor that announcement?
2) As an aside, we bought all these on-market/otc - in crypto you dont necessarily have to be in seed to buy reasonably sized houses. Listed market gets stuff very wrong, at times
Good AltSeason (or lack thereof) chart from Van Eck
Hasnt been this low since the end of defi summer in 2020 - oh and July 2019 (time is a flat circle) when Plus Token scam was (and tbf some other factors) were driving Bitcoin outperformance
โThis is the single worst piece of energy policy I have seen anywhere in the world in almost 20 years looking at global energy markets, despite staunch competition from many other dreadful policies around the world,โ
Seems relatively clear...
1) We are hiring so if you are interested in joining (pref Aussie-based) our team to help research the worlds fastest growing tech and spend all day thinking-through ideas on how it will grow (and hopefully add to the list above), reach-out
I dare someone from CT to buy this yacht in the liquidation auction and name it the Zhupermobile. I will personally chip in $9 in ETH for this endeavour. This beauty will become a truly glorious piece of crypto history.
Was great to sit down, thanks to
@RealVision
, with undoubtedly one of the best thinkers in crypto,
@zhusu
and talk about how he and
@kyled116
built Three Arrows, where to from here for
#Bitcoin
, DeFi and bunch of other stuff - enjoy!
@DefiIgnas
Crazy day, sitting in the office just pretty much laughing at our predicament - surely subsequent rally will be a once in a life time rally as the return numbers look like typos
- Mid 2021: Reserve Bank of Australia continues to tell Australians cash rates will stay near zero until at least 2024
- With cheap money for longer Aussies continue a mortgage fueled house buying binge
- Mortgage debt breaks $2trn, approaching 100% of
Tradfi has the problem that it has to ask its paying customers to prove they arent criminals on an insanely regular basis...
#defi
allows you to do france without the presumption of guilt
No idea about ICX but has nailed a key theme for 2022 imo. Multichain world creates huge opportunity in tying it all together for the millions of new users - its why we are going into 2022 with
@biconomy
@graphprotocol
and
@cosmos
as 3 of our largest positions - there are others
@richwgalvin
What about interoperability tech for 2022 ? Blockchains like
#ICX
's Trustless, low cost, NFTs, Smart Contracts, BTP, ICE, GoLoop, Java SCORE, Low supply, The ONLY token that can connect EVERY blockchain ecosystem, seamlessly
#ICONProject
Most of the problems in crypto capital markets arent new - they have largely been solved in equity markets over the last 50 years.
The key issue I see in crypto, which drives the forward curve problem Jordi mentions below, is too many tokens trade way too rich upon initial
Some tokenomics game theory for locked tokens -
On having big discounts for locked tokens and multiplier on staking rewards:
A) Buyers- Discount makes sense for buyers, why lose flexibility of selling if not getting compensated for it.
B) Project- makese sense for projects -
Crypto sells off after huge rally and as risk assets globally get ๐ฅ
Chef Nomi exit scams, mkt obsesses about this, selloff magically transforms to be all about Nomi
SBF comes to Sushi rescue, removes reason peeps now thought mkt was collapsing
Mkt rallies
Crypto weekends
- Uni consistently around 10% of eth's blockspace
- Has real users that pay real fees without incetivisation
- Has clearly defined mechanism to return a portion of fees to token holders in the future
Out of the thousands of tokens this is the one people are worried about?
W has half the volume of SYN and trades at 45x the value.
Even by crypto standards this is pretty wild - SYN market seems to have started taking baby-steps to try and close this enormous disparity
Digital Asset Fund was the
#1
performer in its long-only category in 2021 - same position as 2020 after
#2
in 2019 - and the
#2
overall performer (
@CryptoFResearch
) We had a big 2020 so crazy to have an even better 2021. Team proving it can find alpha in all market conditions
Unfortunately you wont find it on DeFi Pulse but congratulations to Kava for passing $10m TVL. If it was on the leaderboard you would see it's raced into the top 20 and moved past Lightning - with two limit increases today the people are getting what they want - more USDX!
@lawmaster
@hasufl
Only in crypto would investor base even think about a cash distribution being turned on by a two year old start-up - its kind of crazy but i get its a crypto thing. Makes no sense to divert revenue from growth at this stage imo
God-tier performance from dydx (for obvious reasons) here - now around +40% from pre-FTX-clownshow levels
Agree with market - we unfort only have smalls
1/ Institutions are coming...well Family Office investors already here and seem to be ahead of the curve grasping disruptive potential of crypto. Why? Principal-driven decision making process with a focus on returns, and less โcareer riskโ from losses...imo
Given crypto cyclicality its important it adds critical mass (users, use-cases etc) with each one. To use trading analogy, making higher-lows but at fundamental, not price level
Saw it in 2018/19, seeing it again now - one data point of many but users proving stickier this cycle
Gets lost in the drama (understandably) how powerful LUNA's ecosystem flywheel was of projects airdropping/rewarding stakers on the "mother" chain
ATOM's replicated security effectively recreates it but in a more sustainable, "work-based", win/win model
Staking $ATOM can become
If this data continues anything like this think two things becoming clear:
1) flows potentially surprise to the upside - price action in BTC helping to make this self-fulfilling in short-term
2) Rapid growth of Bitcoin ETFs will make issuers highly motivated to create more
TL:DR
- P/E is more accurately P/Revenue in most crypto stats
- Merge is paradigm shift in potential value accretion for ETH holders as it removes the network's entire "cost" base and gives it back to you, the people (aka stakers).
P/R->P/E
2021 was crazy year for
@DigiAssetFund
- punching a four figure gain, continuing to build the best team, working with incredible founders and doing an ok job balancing the stress with laughs. Not sure how we going to follow it up in 2022 but had the same thoughts a year ago
DAF Liquid Venture Fund and Digital Asset Fund were the
#1
performers in their categories in 2020 and the
#2
and
#3
overall performers according to
@CryptoFResearch
. Thanks to the Team for doing an incredible job building on 2019s momentum and showing no signs of slowing in 2021
Nice thread!
We have managed a crypto fund with monthly liquidity for over 6 years โ have had our share of euphoria but also despair. Our liquid strategy is long-only, so we remain 80%++ invested๐. We also have managed an early-stage venture fund for a similar period of time so
Liquid crypto is probably the single biggest untapped investable segment for crypto funds and represents a huge opportunity that will almost certainly get no inflows couple thoughts why and how it feeds into VC outsizing and general animosity from wider market
Australian resi property market seems to finally be seeing some weakness. Perhaps the boomers had one move left in them - dropping their resi property bags on upstart crypto brahs right at the top?
A long time back Raoul wrote the Bitcoin research piece that got me off the fence re crypto so always a pleasure to catch-up with him for a discussion all-things crypto - thanks for having me
@RealVision
๐
There is only around $10bn in liquid crypto hedge funds vs $4trn in Tradfi hedge funds. That gives them huge alpha in crypto as there is so little completion. One of my favourite managers is
@richwgalvin
from DACM.
Enjoy this alpha-packed conversation!
I made the mistake of thinking through what if Balaji is right and in 90 days Bitcoin is $1m
I dont recommend you do this, it leads to an unproductive day
Think "its only a governance token" is most wide-spread mid-curve take
ETH re-engineered its tokenomics from a loss-making, inflationary, velocity-dependent one to a deflationary, cashflow-driven profitable one 4 months ago, 7 years into its life. Incentives exist, things change
See parallels of current stage of crypto to the "dial-up to broadband" transition. Becomes easier to use, more accessible to non-native users, starts to make trad ways of doing things look dated by offering better UX and lowering barriers. Think
#DYDX
is a great example of this
@0xPolygon
flipped
#ethereum
tx count in early-May and has accelerated from there. Its acheiving this with only ~5% of the daily active users of Eth. Poly users up around 5 - 10x since April. Active user ratio is kind of matching relative mkt caps....๐ง
Thanks
@nansen_ai
โค๏ธ
@aoTheComputer
is the best model we have seen for a new protocol
- Everyone, including team, earns at the same rate in proportion to the capital (forgone yield) they provide with everyone starting at 0
- the rate tokens are earned is programmatic and known so those providing
BTC, ETH, and SOL each innovated with their launches & issuance in ways that were unique, deviating from the โcurrent gameโ of the time.
Intuition is that weโll see some breakthrough deviations from up-and-comers soon, and no, itโs not just memecoins.
This App Compensation will be a great model - Kava has the potential to grow into one of the purest defi chains in crypto and by holding, and staking Kava, this model means you would get direct ownership (not just fees) in the rollout of new apps
The Big Short is a cool story but the resultant canonisation of shorters (and chicken littlers) and belief they inhabit some upper-plane of enlightenment that others should try and emulate, is one of the most value-destructive themes of the last decade
Market woke up over the last 3 weeks and realized
@ArweaveEco
's $AR was massively undervalued at ~$500M FDV, while fundamentals strengthened through the entire bear of 2022/23 - love to see it ๐ซก
"Triggered in large part by a few shade-tinged tweets this week from Changpeng โCZโ Zhao..."
Ridiculous - it was triggered by SBF putting his hand in the client cookie jar to the tune of 10 yards. It isnt "unanswered questions" or "raw egos" its straight-forward graft
Dearth of eth in degen hands atm. Getting increasingly hit-up for staking/farming/similar deals with eth.
It's not "pool 2 in food token" frenzy type mode yet but its accelerating and a lot of eth getting locked in 1-way contracts.
1/ The NFT space has really interesting valuation asymmetries hard to find in other crypto sectors. There is a growing subsector of NFTs moving towards a framework of value around cash flow and utility as opposed to just aesthetics and memetics
1/4: Danushโs
#Alpha
Pick of the YEAR: Since BAYC airdropped $APE to itโs hodlers, everyone in the NFT space has been thinking the same thing: whats the next ๐ฅ NFT ecosystem to provide an airdrop with legitimate value to its hodlers? The answer is
@altstatemachine
๐ง ๐๐๐
Nice one - new way to earn AO by depositing DAI. Very cool financing approach trying to address recent issues: no insiders, no vesting cliffs or overhangs, equal access, fair.
We started with 0 like everyone else (including team), we earn at the same rate as everyone else, we
$DAI is now eligible for $AO minting!
Deposits are open now at
Participate in the 100% fair launch of $AO by bridging $DAI.
Rewards start September 4 1100 EDT.
Details ๐
Crypto starting to empower people to opt-out of poor currency management - killer app for citizens, terrible for sovereigns.
General populous unencumbered by their local currency is a game-changer
What an unbelievable stat: according to a recent report by Chainalysis, ~4% of Turkey's GDP is going to stablecoin purchases. Turkey is among the Top 20 economies globally by GDP.
Source: (h/t
@curiousgurnoor
)
Tradfi talent loves crypto.
Who would have thought constant downsizing and hours of zero-value-add, repetitive CYA compliance workshops is a depressing environment to be in?
I wonder how many banksters know their workers are closet degens
Humbled today to see our unique approach to investing in the world's most exciting asset class is delivering for our investors - in both bull & bear markets. DAF Liquid Ventures was the
#1
performer in its class in 2019; Digital Asset Fund
#2
in its catergory. Bring on 2020!
1/ Very fortunate to spend time with
@biconomy
last year to hear their vision for making crypto txs simpler/intuitive - had zero hesitation participating in their financing then & excited to invest again & lead, along with
@MechanismCap
their latest raise
Still a traders market - "cost" of TP v low. Dominant flows:
- Low iq -> memecoins seeking the xpress elevator to Valhalla
- High iq -> macro-types just strapping-on crypto beta through the two majors
Anything in-between thats real/building something real, very much
@jhamel
They approved another Uranium ETF recently - the concept that the market/price for Uranium is more transparent/less manipulated than bitcoin is ridiculous
@ConvexMonster
reminded me of this yesterday - was 2 months post launch of
@DigiAssetFund
1st fund, launch was AFTER 40% drawdown from highs, at this point market was another 40% lower, two weeks later end-March was -65% - put this together for a distraction/try to keep team sane
Flows materially reversed now - 24hr tally gone from -2.1bn to -780m over last 8 hours - inflows pacing outflows ~2:1
Still think Binance solid but hopefully this spurs them to think further about real independent transparency (that even with best intentions will take time)
Big week ahead! We continue to count ourselves as v lucky to have found the
@biconomy
team - they are laser-focused on abstracting away the hurdles that slow web3.0 adoption - they are at the heart of the action as this space lives its dial-up-to-broadband phase
It's out:
@zhusu
and I discuss
- The arguments for Ethereumโs scaling roadmap
- The arguments for Alt L1s to out-scale Ethereum
- What the โCrypto Villain of the Yearโ thinks about his image
- Parallels to BTC maximalism in the ETH community
and more!
@RyanSAdams
Reallocated from one ERC20 in our fund to another through
@KyberNetwork
and saved 5%+ in slippage that same trade would have produced on a CEX
This is the key diff with ETH vs other PoS chains (currently) - ETH has real revenue which makes the "yield" more than just a function of ownership accretion
Like equities, crypto (non meme at least) are growth assets with future earnings - its about % ownership of total network
Gas usage over time shows the consistent bolting-on of new, additive use cases
ETH->stables->erc20->defi->nfts->?
Disruptive tech takes time but is relentless
$200bn asset completely re-engineering itself and its economics is huge in tradfi let-alone crypto.
The flow impact (+8bn to sub-$1bn) is hard to gauge. Markets generally very bad at pricing long-term flows - lets see...
If you dont have a brain-farming strategy you ngmi!
This is the perfect introduction to
@altstatemachine
- nice work
@Shaughnessy119
and the ASM crew. ASM is one of the most novel/innovative projects out there - potential to add whole new dimensions to the nft/gaming space
GBTC "closing down/winding up" a good example
Why would this happen? It seems non-sensical, what am i missing?
They make $100m+++ from it EVERY YEAR in fees, why would they "wind it up"? They dont like money anymore?
CT rumours definitely getting more ridiculous - can understand why but heading towards the absurd now
Admittedly the event that started this all was close to absurd on its own
Looking back over last four years key thing imo is to get the top-down stuff right - where is the "concept to adoption" growth going to be. Bitcoin in 19, defi in 20, alt l1s in 21...22? That's where we spend most of our ๐ง power. Trying not to get stuck in middle of the curve
NZ's South Island is awe inspiring - must be about my 10th visit, 10th time it surprised me all over again.
Market conditions willing, it's prime crypto bunker territory.
Congrats
@SimonAHarman
and the
@Chainflip
team!
In 2018 it took an intro from a friend in SF for me to meet a young guy only a short hop away in Melbourne with a very non-consensus idea to fork Monero to build a privacy-focused PoS network. When he had the idea for Chainflip in
1. โ๏ธ BREAKING: The FLIP Token is now live!
You can trade FLIP on the following several prominent exchanges, including
@Bybit_Official
,
@kucoincom
,
@gate_io
& soon
@cryptocom
. Furthermore, the token will be available on-chain through
@uniswap
.
LFG.
A wise man said to me tonight "crypto is like Romeo & Juliet, you think it's a romance novel, it's actually a tragedy"
He is overthinking it - its a straight-up, uncensored slasher movie
We starting to look too conservative on ETF flows - glad we were wrong. These numbers getting pretty insane. Boomers seem very focused on buying a lot of coins through Larry.
Easy to underestimate the inertia of investors to move outside of the existing
USTs* outperformed Credit Suisse CoCos from a capital preservation perspective.
*UST = Terra Luna UST, not US Treasuries
Tbh potential also outperformed with coupons thrown in
Sad market times we are in. Have been around markets my whole career. Got drawn to the purity of the supply/demand dynamics. That feels broken. Banning shorts in GFC was first act to shake my faith - and its been one-way traffic since. Commodity shorts getting protection...wtf?
Key next step as crypto enters it's equivalent of the "dial-up to broadband" phase is to scale into mobile. Time to grow from a well supported, yet still somewhat niche and tech-savvy user base to mass market, ease-of-use/utility-generator.
Great to see and will be a lot more