Deal Review: $1.7m equity in 138 days.
On December 6th, we closed on a two property off-market portfolio of 50k sqft for ~$2.3m. Based on March's NOI, our facilities are worth ~$4M today, just 138 days later.
A 🧵 on how we landed the deal, added value, and even some raw
#s
👇
@SMB_Attorney
There’s this sentiment that millennials were “lied to” which is really strange to me. They likely can have the same lives as their parents working the same job. But they can’t have the glamorous lives you see on social media, which IMO is the culprit.
Nearly every house in my area has 2x’d in price since covid and the effective mortgage has tripled.
As a 27 year old millennial looking to buy a house, this really sucks.
Killing young family’s purchasing power has got to light the fuse of a timebomb for the economy.
Zoom out 100 years I think Texas is going to look like the rust belt.
- oil production and refinery 20% of today
- the weather is mostly terrible and is going to get worse
- far less visually appealing, less outdoor activities than the Rockies, East & West coast
At the stage in life where 80% of my friends are 9-5 and looking for ways out, and insanely, 20% are starting to just hit home runs. Three separate 27-year-old friends are going to clear >$500k/year with their small-businesses. Had no idea this was possible at this age.
My Model 3 is in the shop (object in road took out a few cars), so I’m renting an Audi A4.
The A4 is nice, don’t get me wrong; it feels good and looks good. But the user experience just sucks comparatively.
Now I’m back to carrying keys. My car is cold when I get in instead of
We raised $650k for our last deal.
Thanks to accelerated depreciation, we’re taking a $603k loss in y1. That means our investors will write off $92k on their $100k investment. Where else can you get such incredible tax treatment?
Just went under contract on my dream house + 50 acres in my favorite town, 100% seller financed at a low rate.
So many people said this wasn’t possible, this land didn’t exist, etc…
Will provide an update once closed, but this is a huge day.
And yes, that’s a mountain range
I’m going to translate some of Casey’s lingo into English and show you how he both secured a $500k write off and a walkable 4.49% mortgage.
Here’s the scenario, described about 1/3 of the way through the episode:
Someone, lets call him “Seller”, decides to sell his property. He
🚨New Episode: Please welcome
@CaseyMericle
to the Fort!
Casey is a real estate investor out of Missouri specializing in deal structuring, negotiating, and putting people and resources together to solve real estate puzzles. He's been in real estate for about 15 years and has
I’m so proud of my fiancé.
She’s 8 weeks into her solo horse veterinarian practice, and this *week* alone she brought in 2.5x her monthly salary at her last job.
Her name is going around and all of the top rodeo racers in our area are already using her. So proud.
Throughout my day-to-day, I am just constantly meeting people of low-to-middle intelligence worth $10m+, living off distributions, whose only financial decision was to buy a single building with 20% down 10-20 years ago.
How is insurance not the biggest thing we’re talking about on ReTwit?
I’m being told that Gulf/Florida rates are jumping from the $0.35 to $1-2/sqft for storage. Blowing up deals worse than floating rates.
Is my broker wrong, or are people too afraid to admit it?
Broker A: verbally scoffs at my offer.
Broker B: calls me to let me know an offer came in 50% over mine, thanks me, and asks me to keep it up - they appreciate every offer.
Can you guess which is selling 1-2 properties per year and which is selling 20-25?
Messed up, but here goes:
When owners tell me they want to pass their properties to their kids, I set up a google alert for their obituary. The first obituary just hit this morning.
What is an appropriate grace period to wait before contacting the “new ownership”?
I just combed through the
@LPWhisperer
“leaks”.
It’s a lot of heresay / rumors that I’ve heard before, much of it is actually true as far as I know.
Are many sponsors who were super active in 2022 losing their asses? Yes.
Is this “fraud”? If underperforming was a crime my wife
This is bizarre...
1. Mentally ill anonymous user obsesses over other accounts.
2. Posts some screenshots (that are not even that bad) saying returns are lower than expected...ok?
3. Targeted user deletes an account with over 110k niche, highly concentrated high net worth
Closed!
Off market
50 acres
3 minutes from downtown Travelers Rest
Seller financed @ 4%
$45k down (soon to be zero, will explain in a few weeks)
Came with all the toys
All of my clothes are 10+ years old, ratty, and disgusting.
Why?
Because shopping for clothes is a waste of my time.
At $5000/hr, a trip to the mall for t-shirt is costing you $10,025.
You either understand the value of your time, or you will.
Self Storage Development Series, Part 1 of X
Have you ever looked at asking prices for crappy storage facilities and wondered, "why would I pay this crazy price when I could build a class A property, exactly where I want it, for the same price?"
If so, this series is for you!
I spend $1700/mo on software to run my acquisitions team alone!
$350 Dialer
$320 Skiptracing
$200 CRM w/ 4 seats
$200 Investor Portal
$50 QuickBooks
$50 Microsoft 365
$50 Zapier
$50 Website & Mailchimp
… etc
It adds up!
I want to formally introduce myself and de-anonymize: My name is Ryan Auger. The coolest thing about me is that I'm engaged to a horse doctor.
I'm from Charlotte, NC, went to Clemson. Worked as a software engineer for a few years, then a product manager. Tech was not for me...
Officially closed on my first two facilities!!
Based on the appraisal, I'm going in +$525k on a $2.325M investment.
#ReTwit
has profoundly impacted my life and I'm incredibly grateful.
If you play video games and are upset that your life isn’t going anywhere, it’s 100% your fault.
No girl wants to date a pasty guy glued to a TV inside screen pretending to be a soldier
You’re not earning $ or learning
Not making friends
Not networking
You are falling behind
Understand the relationships between cap rates and NOI multiples - it can help amazingly with locking up great deals.
4 cap = 25x NOI
5 cap = 20x NOI
6 cap = ~16.5x NOI
7 cap = ~14x NOI
8 cap = ~12x NOI
9 cap = ~11x NOI
10 cap = 10x NOI
First time this has ever happened!
Broker (not a specialty storage broker) called and very rudely declined my offer. They have higher offers, this is insulting, why waste her time. Me:"thank you, but the price drops in 10 days"
15 days later they sign my expired LOI.
I invested in a tech company a few years back and forgot about it. Last months numbers:
- $0 revenue
- $143,000 expenses
How VCs stomach this is beyond my comprehension.
Can someone tell me why I shouldn’t buy an anytime fitness franchise?? It feels like the retail version of self storage.
People are locked into a month-month lease, it’s inconvenient cancel, people never show up and still pay, forget about it, and you can buy them at 3x NOI
Deal review:
- 7.5 year due-diligence period
- 2 years to close
- a new asset class to me but I’m very familiar with this model in particular
- this deal was so good we had the “closing dinner” on the front end
Am I crazy for wanting to lease a car?
My Chevy Malibu cost me $3k in repairs last year. Now it needs new tires and has an oil leak. At least $4k more on a car worth $4k.
Lease on a brand new one would be $280/mo.
With rates at 7/8%, makes sense to lease, no?
How is insurance not the biggest thing we’re talking about on ReTwit?
I’m being told that Gulf/Florida rates are jumping from the $0.35 to $1-2/sqft for storage. Blowing up deals worse than floating rates.
Is my broker wrong, or are people too afraid to admit it?
Just wholesaled a property and made more than I have across every W-2 I have ever had combined.
The risk/reward profile of entrepreneurship is hard to grasp. The sucky first year or two of making very little cash is wildly outweighed by the good times that can follow.
@housleyd
I visited home (NC) for Thanksgiving. Pic is just driving through my neighborhood.
- 10x more beautiful
- better school system
- not reliant on natural resources
- not 104 for 30% of the year
- seasons
- mountains
- 3 hrs to top beaches
I am officially 100% full time at Redwood Storage.
Our facilities are cranking, we just got 3 more great properties under contract with many more on the way, and we’re seeing 3x the number of deals as we were while I was part time.
De semi-anonymization incoming… LFG!!!!
Every time I post about our self storage wins, I get 5 DMs asking for advice on “how to start”, “how can I buy my first facility”.
Here’s my advice: if you want to own in very undesirable areas that may be worthless in a few years - get into storage.
We made 6000 calls over 3
Career so far & a bit of advice:
2017: Graduated.
2017-2019: Worked as a software engineer, hated every minute.
2019-2020: Started a restaurant tech company, 50 clients, COVID decimated.
2020- 2021: Worked as a software engineer, hated it. Spent 50% of every day hunting for a
Officially closed on property
#7
!
I have not been this excited about a closing since my first, given all the month-to-month tenants. I feel like I am stepping right into the arena.
Game on.
My credit score is 724. "Good", not "Great".
Never missed a single payment across like 9 CC's (each property LLC/GP/PM co/personal), nor any loan payments.
Should I care?
I lost a deal I was pretty interested in.
Seller decided they *needed* to close by end of ‘21 because of tax hike fears. I had to bow out.
The buyer who won offered a lower price, a close in ‘22, and agreed to pay any delta in cap gains for the sellers. Absolutely genius.
What is the best alternative to Chase for a business checking account?
Every time I set up a new account they require me to come in in person. They force me to sit there in person for an hour and half selling me on nonsense
I'm 100% done with them. What's the best alternative?
The
#1
risk to commercial real estate is not further interest rate hikes, it’s that student loan repayments start again on Sunday.
I’m seriously worried this could could be the anvil that broke the camel’s back, and nobody is talking about it.
15% of Americans will lose their
Just got a cold call asking me if I had any interest in investing in oil and gas projects.
What the absolute F?
Cold calling people to invest in private securities?
"I got your name from an accredited investor list"
This has got to be illegal, right...?
I'm flabbergasted.
I’m finally realizing that doing small deals is not worth it.
You get a 20% discount (100k) on a 500k deal, you execute, and go to sell in a year for 20% over market the day you buy. You end up pocketing less that 100k. You went through a 2 month process of dd, closing..
Closed on what I believe will be a banger deal this week.
And today I have the real estate equivalent of postpartum depression. One small deal UC, otherwise the pipeline is empty.
I just want to buy 50 of these! That’s all I ask!
$7B AUM developer no longer paying tenant reps a fee 👀
From the outside looking in, that in today’s world where everything is posted for rent on loopnet a tenant rep should earn so much $ for forwarding a listing is peculiar.
How will this shake out?
Your significant other refuses to get TSA precheck or clear.
Do you wait in line with her, take off your shoes and take out your laptop, like a pleb, or strut through pre-check unmolested, but on your own?
What are typical GC margins on a renovation?
A friend is doing an office renovation, quoted $250k. The GC accidentally emailed him a cost breakdown yesterday meant for the permitting office, which came out to be a total of $150k. Is a $100k (40%) margin normal or exorbitant?
Woke up this morning and it finally hit me. I’m getting married in 20 days. WOW!
Is the wedding going to go ok? Is it going to rain? Will she love it?
It’s been 9 1/2 years already…. is my life about to radically change? Will we start popping out 👶’s? What changes??
I cannot believe I’m saying this, but after using Office / OneDrive for the last few weeks I can’t believe I ever used Google Drive.
Sheets and Docs briefly had the edge while Excel and Word were offline only, but now that they work online w/ collaboration it’s game over.
Moving to Austin I did not understand how disadvantaged I’d be competing for off market deals in the Southeast… we just lost a deal, after putting in a higher offer, because the other group met the seller and shook his hand. 5 months…
Off market owner “ready to sell and retire”, sent me a dossier on why his property making 24k per month, in a county with a pop of 20k, is worth worth $6m. The dos includes an offer to finance $5m at the low rate of 7% IO, $29k - double his NOI. Which one of you is pranking me?
The self storage market is bananas.
I offered on a 30k sqft property in ultra rural GA off market. 7k people in a 5 mile radius (LOW). No “town” remotely nearby. $50/sqft, 8% cap rate. You may have seen this hit your inbox recently.
At an 8% cap, I clearly didn’t really want
I woke up this morning feeling like a million bucks. Headed to the gym, and halfway through my deadlifts I threw my back out. Can barely move, intense pain. Going to be in the same position in bed for at least another 48hrs. Is this what getting older feels like?
A friend of mine at an institutional REPE shop is getting 3% debt on 25y ams. That’s about a full 100bps lower than us.
They’re targeting some of the same deals and killing us.
How can a small, growing shop get debt at that level to compete? Do we have any options?
- it’s not actually cheaper to live here anymore.
- cities are ultra generic
The saving grace is that the university system is insanely good: TCU, UT, A&M constantly pumping out tens of thousands of highly educated folks each year. Maybe that buoys it. Long term I doubt it.
I am looking for a 50% LTC loan on a property that is cash flow positive, excellent shape, and well below replacement cost in a solid market.
My 3 debt quotes from local lenders:
- 8.25%
- 8.75%
- 9%
Absolutely brutal.
A few options ahead of us right now:
- hold cash, lose ~8%/yr to inflation
- invest in stocks, lose 8% per week to the recession
- invest in cash flowing real estate, get paid ~8%+ monthly to own
Residential realtor just listed a property we buy.
- won’t take calls, text and email only
- (has not replied to my text)
- replied to an email next day but now 72 hrs no reply
Imagine selling a $5m property, your retirement, and this is the service you hire.
I’ve been in this business for 2 years and I still do not understand how people do big deals.
Someone please explain to me how to buy big deals at the prices people are paying for them and make them accretive with conservative assumptions.
I don’t get it. It’s holding me up.
“But the aggregate average is still low”
That doesn’t change anything for people facing this issue.
Nor does it change the fact that it could wipe out the discretionary income of an entire generation, which would absolutely have negative effects across the economy.
I created a video today analyzing an institutional grade self-storage property for sale in Spokane Washington.
I don't know anything about this property other than what I could find available publicly (I did not sign any CA):
- 68k sqft
- 369 units
- NOI of $440k
- PP $8.8m
-
Despite all the doomsayers, I’m willing to bet anyone here that real estate prices do not drop to “generational buying opportunity” levels within the next 12 months.
4->6 market cap on a good asset is not generational. 4->10 is.
Im sorry but it’s just not going to happen.
I'm going to start building in public a lot more going forward, talking about our ongoing developments, acquisition value add, ie not just our wins. To kick it off:
Our first FT acquisitions team member started last Monday, and I've been drinking from a firehose since then.
If you're not already following
@CaseyMericle
, you're leaving money on the table.
In October last year, Casey walked me through inking an awesome seller financed deal with a walkable $2m mortgage at 4.25% fixed for 20 years.
This note *alone* will make me and my LPs millions.
Say hello to the front 10 acres of our 50 acre farm. Or should I call it a ranch?
Can’t get over this view. Mountains are crystal clear in the morning and the sunset is gorgeous every evening.
Can’t wait to share the story of how we landed it off market, seller financed @ 4%
One of these signs yielded 0 zero inquiries in 3 weeks.
One of these signs yielded ~3 calls per day until our leasing brokers begged us to take it down (and we subsequently leased the space).
Can you guess which had success?
Do you set limits for when you text or email employees? Today, I just send a text / slack / email whenever an issue/idea comes to my mind, but Im starting to think that getting a text at 11pm on a Saturday from your employer could piss people off. Thoughts?
"The Securities and Exchange Commission today charged Prime Group Holdings LLC, a private equity firm focused on alternative real estate asset classes, for failing to adequately disclose millions of dollars of real estate brokerage fees that were paid to a real estate brokerage
Heavily debating dropping the W-2 today.
The single pro to keeping it is my concern that it will be harder to get a loan w great terms w/o it.
Is this a valid concern? If so, can I reasonably alleviate the issue?
@fortworthchris
This is because most teams are trying run like they did in an office.
Instead: document all processes and rationality (notion), record all meetings and information (loom + zoom), cap # of meetings and # of attendees, track output & progress with software (trello/kanban).
Chase has the best UI and best reward CCs but they offer 0% interest for savings accounts, making them pretty lame for a property level reserve account.
Any recommendations for high yielding, quick access savings accounts that are painless to set up and transfer $ to and fro?
Does anyone on here know anything about machine shops?
I’m trying to buy a property and the seller tells me he’s going to wind down the business… machine shop doing $2.5m per year, $400k profit last year.
This year $1m revenue Q1…
Could this be a solid SMB play?
What’s your number?
I’ll go first: $500k/yr real estate divvy income. That likely means $10m in unrealized equity spitting off 5% cash and paying down another 2-3% in principal.
Then I’d spend my time mostly how I do now, but more golf and fewer employees.
First time I've ever had a declined offer come back and accept, let alone without even calling me back and countering! Total 180.
So now that they've proven they're desperate let's see if we end up getting that 5% discount. Maybe 10%, we'll see.
Over the last 10 months we have made 18,456 calls.
Those calls yielded 2245 conversations with owners off-market.
We've seriously underwritten exactly 288 of them.
1 of those we acquired.
How do your numbers compare?
I’ve (crazily..) been approached by a few groups who want to establish programmatic JVs: “take this $50-100M and buy or build a ton of storage”.
Hurdles are very similar to what we’re doing now, fees are higher, return targets are lower (low teens). Why is this a bad idea?
The UAW is essentially begging the auto companies to leave Detroit.
This is massively bullish for Charleston, Savannah, and their inland ports along the i85 Charlotte - Greenville - Atlanta corridor.
There’s a reason
@BMWUSA
’s biggest factory is in South Carolina.
I pay brokers an acquisition fee + a slice of my GP promote for bringing properties to me “off market”.
Recently I was brought a property “off market”, that they also brought to a dozen other people, who are bidding against me.
Is it reasonable that I forego any incentive here?
Boom!
Just signed our first industrial lease at $0.50/sqft above projections and with 5% annual escalations!
Had a few suitors $1/sqft above, but this tenant required no TI, should treat the space well, and with 5% bumps will end up paying more.
LFG!
I'm starting to look to buy a home.
Are there any services like Zillow that will make it easy for me to connect with the seller's agent rather than forcing a buyer's agent down my throat?