Richard Holden @profholden Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

The former prime minister of the commonwealth of Australia just complained that somebody “dobbed on him.” What is he, like 12?

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

3 questions for @GregHuntMP . 1) Has the government been spending nearly $60K per day on McKinsey consultants to advise on our vaccine rollout? 2) Is that a flat rate or are there performance criteria? 3) Given that is has been an utter debacle, can we please have our money back?

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

Sweden's death rate per capita 12x Norway, 7x Finland, 6x Denmark. Central bank forecast -4.5% GDP this year. Unemployment is 9% and rising. c.f. Denmark forecast GDP -4.1% and unemployment 5.6%. Anyone who thinks Sweden's strategy was a success needs to look at the data.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

PM on #insiders : "many are wise in hindsight". but plenty of folks were wise in foresight on vaccines and other COVID-related issues. He just didn't listen to them.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Right on @TurnbullMalcolm : "The reason we are so far behind is because the government last year didn’t buy enough vaccines, they didn’t buy nearly enough Pfizer and they didn’t buy any Moderna...It is a comprehensive failure of administration...you can’t put a gloss on it.”

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

. @GregHuntMP : "we are happy to receive any criticism for the things that we control." OK. Things you control. 1. Vaccine purchasing strategy: grade=F. 2. Vaccine rollout strategy: E. 3. Vaccine rollout execution: E. 4. Communications strategy: F. Overall:F. There's some criticism

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

Markets aren’t perfect. But markets lifted a billion people out of extreme poverty over 4 decades.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Hey @ScottMorrisonMP . “The whole world” didn’t put most of their eggs in the AZ basket and then boast about it.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

So @GregHuntMP says there are no plans to require boosters as part of “being vaccinated”. Oh, Greg. Have you learnt nothing over the past year? And if you’re going to hide behind medical advice then get some better advice from some better advisers.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

I guess @ScottMorrisonMP has to say “it’s not a race. It’s not a competition.” Because if it was we would have been lapped multiple times and be battling it out for 75th place. Of course it’s a race—against the virus and outbreaks, and for economic recovery. Wake up PM.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

1 year

Actually, no.This is an example of a live-saving innovation generating a massive amount of social value, of which the innovator captures a relatively small amount.And which, if they didn't because some fool insisted on marginal-cost pricing, is an innovation that would not occur.

Robert Reich

@RBReich

1 year

Moderna is planning to charge $130 for its COVID vaccine, but the vaccine only costs $2.85 to make. Meanwhile, over the last two years, the company made over $19 billion in profits off the vaccine. Folks, this is what corporate greed looks like.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

I have had a gut-full of people running interference for the government about Australia's bungled vaccine strategy and rollout. Our lack of urgency and ambition is hugely costly in economic terms and means taking a massive public-health gamble. #insiders

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Brendan Murphy can’t answer the most basic questions. Like how many doses per week CSL is producing. Either he doesn’t know or refuses to tell us. Either way that’s completely unacceptable. #abc730

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

@Adam_Creighton Adam, The fact that there are "only" 17 people in ICU is *because* of the actions taken. The counterfactual from overseas is all too evident and frightening. Rather than lecturing us all to #getagrip why don't you #getaclue . #auspol .

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Tip of the day: An "economist" who denies the negative externalities of climate change is not, actually, an economist.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Australia on the other hand, not so much. So it seems that Jacinda Ardern is a better commercial negotiator than Greg Hunt. Who knew?

NZ will have enough Pfizer vaccine doses for entire population

The country has chosen to buy 10 million doses of only the German vaccine based on trial results pointing to 95 per cent effectiveness.

www.smh.com.au

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

Breaking news. Apparently nightclubs can facilitate the spread of COVID.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

So now the minister says he INTENTIONALLY put Australia at the back of the queue because he was worried about other countries with COVID outbreaks. Seriously? Meanwhile, the leaders of those countries were doing deals to protect their citizens.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

I don't get how some folks can be so worried about the "debt left to future generations" but not concerned about what type of planet we leave our kids and grandkids. Gotta look at both the asset and the liability side of the intergenerational balance sheet.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

@Adam_Creighton . Adam. All folks like me are asking is for you to understand 4 things 1. We are in a relative good position in Australia *because* of the measures taken. The body count here is not evidence of what would have happened absent those measures. 1/5

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

Couple things here. 1: Optimism is great, but policy makers must hope for the best and plan for the worst. Where’s the planning? What if things don’t pan out so rosy? 2: CFR of omicron v flu. When did 50,000 people last catch the flu on a single day?

Welcome to 2022, the year this pandemic ends

Australia’s former deputy chief medical officer writes that this is the year the world will overcome COVID-19 as a pandemic and move to living with it as an endemic virus.

www.smh.com.au

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

I love the United States, and try not to sound like a parochial Australia too often. But nobody waits on line for 3-4 hours to vote in Australia, and almost everyone votes. It's actually not that hard--just fund elections properly.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

I don’t know why folks say the ABC has a lefty bias. Here’s their marquee presenter taking a neoliberal stance on debt and suggesting that prudent public health measures are hysterical. I thought it was Sky After Dark for a minute.

abc730

@abc730

3 years

Watch the full interview with Treasurer @JoshFrydenberg . #abc730 #auspol

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

A short thread on what is "standard" in economics and what's not. PhD field courses cover a lot of the most modern economics. I myself have been very defensive over the years when commentators, or scholars in other fields say "economics ignores [insert fav e.g. here]" 1/6

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

It's disturbing that several commentators who in March 2020 wanted to let COVID rip are now saying that living with COVID with 80+% of folks vaccinated is the same thing and they were right all along. That's just flat out not true.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

@SHamiltonian Oh wait. I know this one. It’s because they have significant financial interests in the Australian resources sector.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

A simple question for @GregHuntMP . Does CSL have the right to force the Australian government to buy all 50 million doses under contract even if they are deemed unsafe? And, if so, a follow up. Who was responsible for negotiating the contract? @SHamiltonian 1/2

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

. @murpharoo is spot on as usual. “The best economic response is the best public health response” #Insiders

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Richard Holden

@profholden

7 years

Using super to buy housing shifts money directly from young savers to old sellers. Complete own goal. 1st year econ-level stuff. #auspol

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

This is what the overwhelming majority of economists think about the bogus claim that ending containment measures now would help the economy. Open letter from 118 Australian economists: don't sacrifice health for 'the economy' via @ConversationEDU @unsw

Open letter from 265 Australian economists: don’t sacrifice health for ‘the economy’

Leading Australian economists in four countries have signed an open letter calling on the national cabinet to think carefully before easing restrictions ‘for the sake of 'the economy’.

theconversation.com

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

So @AngusTaylorMP is boasting about his “128 page plan” on #Insiders . And not a single one of those pages has anything that will get Australia to zero zero.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Well knock me down with a feather... OECD’s Cormann urges carbon tariff caution

OECD’s Mathias Cormann urges carbon tariff caution

The incoming head of the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development would prefer nations make their own contribution to fight emissions.

www.afr.com

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Anyone who has understood high-school statistics knows this is an incredibly silly statement.

Adam Creighton

@Adam_Creighton

3 years

"We have so far stuck 34,911,907 testing strips up people’s noses, to discover around 80,000 positive cases. That means 34.8 million of those tests were unnecessary; so at more than $100 each, we’ve spent $3.5bn on literally nothing."

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Richard Holden

@profholden

1 year

San Francisco is in the midst of a housing and homelessness crisis of epic proportions. And they are your model of a policy success? Seriously?

Max Chandler-Mather

@MChandlerMather

1 year

In San Francisco a rent stabilisation board determines how much landlords are able to increase the rent. This year the limit is 3.6%. Rent caps are used around the world and are desperately needed in Oz. Check out all their decisions here:

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

Sweden's death rate 100 times Australia's per capita. Sweden's economy doing worse. Sad for Sweden. Very good that Australian policy makers got decisions here right.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

These are the facts of the case, and not a single one of them is in dispute. You want to reach an illogical conclusion, that's your right. But please understand how dangerous your position is. 5/5

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Richard Holden

@profholden

1 year

I don’t know who needs to hear this. Actually I do. I’m not sure why I lied just now. IN ECONOMICS AUTHORSHIP IS TYPICALLY ALPHABETICAL.IF A REVIEWER WRITES WRITES A REPORT ON AN ECONOMIST SAYING THEY DON’T HAVE MANY FIRST-AUTHOR PAPERS YOU SHOULD IMMEDIATELY IGNORE THAT REPORT

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

Stochastic models have probability distributions. You are only reporting the first moment. Risk-averse decision makers (like governments) care about the higher moments, too. How about a little more leg work rather than just pounding out the same piece over and over again?

Adam Creighton

@Adam_Creighton

4 years

"Modelling envisaged Sweden paying a heavy price for its rejection of lockdown, with 40,000 Covid deaths by 1 May and almost 100,000 by June. The latest figure for Sweden is 2,680 deaths" #shutdownNOW via @spectator

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

A short thread on "common sense" and RATs. Greg Hunt says "it's just common sense" not to make RATs free. Here's his logic and why it's wrong. 1/6

PM warns rapid tests won’t be free for all as experts slam delays

Labor leader Anthony Albanese labelled the handling of the rapid antigen test rollout a public policy failure while public health experts said it was “astounding” a plan was not already in place this...

www.smh.com.au

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Great piece by @SHamiltonian . Don’t let anyone tell you the government has had a change of heart on climate. This “plan” involves not doing a single thing we’re not doing. It’s a joke.

A prayer, not a plan, for net zero

A road map without a single new policy leaves us to wonder what exactly has been going on behind closed doors in Canberra amid the 2050 target machinations.

www.afr.com

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

I'm beginning to think that we should amend section 44 of the Australian constitution to allow dual citizens to be eligible for Australian parliament, but stipulate that anyone who has worked for McKinsey should be ineligible.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

This is a reminder of the “self-lockdown” phenomenon economists have been talking about since early 2020.

One in five restaurant bookings cancelled amid resurgent COVID fears

The hospitality industry is shedding customers amid fears of contracting COVID-19 or being forced into isolation ahead of Christmas.

www.smh.com.au

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

What I find interesting is that a guy who is generically against any form of government intervention in markets suddenly thinks the party formerly known as liberal making a massive intervention in the energy market is just fine. #insiders

Insiders ABC

@InsidersABC

4 years

Simon Benson on the Gov't's possible energy market intervention: "What I find interesting is people on the anti-gas side lining up with investors to argue against government intervention and more gas." #insiders #auspol

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

@Adam_Creighton I am criticizing your argument as incomplete and misleading. Your work ethic is obviously high. You produce a large number of misguided pieces on this topic. Sadly part of my value add these days is holding a small but loud fraction of the fourth estate to account.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

If ever there was an issue for the Teals it’s taking on the gambling lobby. Too many scars, conflicts & cowardice for the major parties to clean up the mess. Pokies destroy families, entrench disadvantage & undermine the welfare state @spenderallegra @KyleaTink @Mon4Kooyong

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

If you didn't get taught the Coase Theorem as an undergraduate (in any degree of study) then you got shortchanged. I'm going to be posting a video primer soon. But in the mean time, the original paper in Journal of Law and Economics is a masterpiece. #externalities #coase

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

That piece was completely and utterly embarrassing.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

4. Before relaxing any restrictions we need a very low base rate, mass testing, and excellent contact tracing. We don't have those yet. 4/5

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

OK folks. The Prime Minister of the Commonwealth of Australia said this. Really. He did. Out loud.

Luke Henriques-Gomes

@lukehgomes

3 years

Quite interesting on rapid tests: the PM says "private industry" had expressed concern the government would "come in and tests will be handed out to anyone who wants one". "It was agreed today that will not be the policy in Australia."

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

I guess our fearless leader has never heard of a public good. What’s next “we can’t just go around providing a national defense and kids playgrounds.”

Sunrise

@sunriseon7

2 years

"We're at a stage of the pandemic where you can't just go around making everything free" Prime Minister @ScottMorrisonMP says the federal government will not provide rapid antigen tests to people who are not "required" to have one.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

There is one and only one thing that has led the BCA to take a stronger stance on climate. The government is no longer opposed to it. The science didn't change. The politics did. Case closed.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

1 year

. @JulieCollinsMP gets it exactly right re housing on #insiders . Rent controls reduce supply and reduce the quality of the rental stock. The government is focused on what works: supply. Meanwhile the greens tilt at ideological windmills and ignore the evidence.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

Tip for Aus journalists. Reporting gross government debt rather than net debt is like reporting someone’s mortgage balance while ignoring their offset account. Makes no sense. Makes one look like somebody in search of a headline with “$1 trillion” in it. Please stop.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

1 year

. @AlboMP nails it on housing in presser just now. "The key is supply". It's scandalous at best, and could more accurately be as despicable that the Greens and Coalition are blocking more supply. @MChandlerMather seems to want the issue rather than to do the right thing.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Great news re 20M more Pfizer doses for australia. Even though in Q4. Why didn’t this happen before? Pfizer was always much higher efficacy even before blood clot concerns with AZ. @SHamiltonian called for this for months and the gov said it was neither possible nor necessary

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

It's not like it was hard to predict that a super-slow and bungled vaccine rollout with no sense of urgency could lead to outbreaks and more lockdowns. As @SHamiltonian and I wrote on 1 Feb...

‘Whatever it takes’: Vaccine strategy needs urgent rethink

Nowhere has the inadequacy of conventional thinking been more exposed than in Australia’s vaccine strategy.

www.smh.com.au

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

The NSW premier today when asked if case numbers would be lower now if he hadn't eased restrictions. “No, I think you would see exactly the same [numbers] and that’s been brought out right across the country and the world right now.” 🤨🙄

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

A lot of folks in Australia are doing it tough with lockdowns at the moment. It’s worth remembering that nobody in the country would be locked down right now if we’d had a competent vaccine purchasing and rollout strategy. The folks who bungled that are at fault.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Hey @GregHuntMP . Did I hear you right? 99% of indigenous Australians have been offered a vaccine? Really? What do you mean by "offered"? Great you are talking about First Nations vaccination, but show us the evidence please.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

@Adam_Creighton I wrote "An assumption of a 1% fatality rate is low from the perspective of those making decisions at the onset of the pandemic, at a time when crucial and reliable data were missing." I stand by that. But tell us, please, what fatality rate do you think is "acceptable"?

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

I once bought insurance and didn't make a claim. what a waste of money! Yesterday I hit the brakes in my car and didn't hit a tree. slowed me down a bit--huge mistake!

Adam Creighton

@Adam_Creighton

3 years

"We have so far stuck 34,911,907 testing strips up people’s noses, to discover around 80,000 positive cases. That means 34.8 million of those tests were unnecessary; so at more than $100 each, we’ve spent $3.5bn on literally nothing."

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

I have praised some things @nick_coatsworth has done, and criticized others. But why anyone would want to voluntarily associate themselves with the clown car that was Australia's vaccine purchasing and rollout strategy is beyond me.

After bitter rollout politics, Coatsworth looks forward to the ‘summer after the pandemic’

Nick Coatsworth was a natural to be the face of Australia’s COVID-19 response and vaccine rollout campaign. But while his straight-talking and unvarnished opinions have earned him high praise, they...

www.smh.com.au

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

@leighsales Hard to provide evidence of dogs that didn’t bark or bells that didn’t ring. The counterfactual where there is no lockdown and significant community spread is not observed when policy makers act optimally. But just look overseas...

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Key assumption of the "it's not a race" crowd was "no COVID right now." Obvious response--made by many--was "it's v easy to go from no COVID to lots. even easier when R0=5-6." It was always a race.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

A short thread on testing. When @shamiltonian and I wrote in mid August that our medical regulatory complex should get their skates on and approve RATs, and that government should send free tests to "every Australian household" we got Medsplained that we didn't know anything. 1/3

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

The idea that Australia is going to reestablish a car manufacturing industry is delusional. Even attaching giant ropes and dragging the continent thousands of kilometers closer to export markets would be insufficient.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

. @David_Speers asked on #insiders today "what went wrong" with the vaccine rollout? Sadly, the more parsimonious way to ask it is "what went right?"

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

3. When R_t>1 the virus gets out of control--that is the nature of exponential growth. And because of the asymptomatic period it can get out of control without us noticing. Plenty of tragic overseas evidence of this. 3/5

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

What was that about sanctions not working?

Russia set for default on foreign debt for first time in 100 years

The default is a grim marker in the country’s rapid transformation into an economic, financial and political outcast.

www.afr.com

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

2. When we relax the containment measures the replication rate at time R_t will go up and we don't know the probability distribution of R_t. If there is much mass of that probability distribution above R_t=1 then we run a huge risk of large-scale second-wave outbreaks. 2/5

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Niki Sava is dead right about "the greatest policy failure since Federation." @SHamiltonian and I said as much in @SMH on 12 March: "It risks committing perhaps the greatest public policy bungle in Australian history."

Morrison’s election plan? It’s as easy as A, B or C

The path to re-election for the Prime Minister has hit a few bumps, many of his own making.

www.smh.com.au

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

Is this the best piece of data-driven journalism ever?

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Just encountered my first unmasked anti vaxer at Coles. I learnt many things. “He has relatives in gov.”, “he’s privy to information I don’t have”, “spike proteins are made up”, and “the truth will set you free my brother.” All this without me uttering one word.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

The history of this pandemic is the history of governments waiting too long to do what they inevitably will, and doing a lot of damage in the interim. It's good that the NSW premier has moved on masks. But waiting in some attempt to sure up his political brand was disappointing.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

1 year

This is a national disgrace.

Mark Di Stefano

@MarkDiStef

1 year

Incredible stat -- 35% of the world's pokies are in NSW

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

Today in @SMH with @SHamiltonian . Well all hope for the best, but policy makers also have to plan for the worst. Where's our pandemic plan at right now? Our response to COVID has been riddled with failures of foresight. Let's not repeat.

Our COVID rear-vision isn’t pretty, but we can’t ignore the oncoming threat in our windscreen

This isn’t about “hindsight heroism”, as the Prime Minister puts it; there has been a foresight failure.

www.smh.com.au

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Richard Holden

@profholden

11 months

"Max Chandler-Mather now stands for a policy that no-one supports, on the left or the right...the experts have said it would make things worse." @PhillipCoorey nails it on rent freezes on #insiders .

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

Since August @SHamiltonian and I have said RATs provide more information and empower people to make better choices for themselves, their family, and their community. As ever, the gov. dithered. Now trying to cover up their obvious mistake. Even Bojo got this right. 6/6

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Hey Professor Murphy. Still "not a race"? Are we still "not in a hurry"? Or are you now concerned about outbreaks of B.1.1.7. causing a serious outbreak, lockdowns, and a massive loss of consumer and business confidence? @SHamiltonian #auspol

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Somebody should develop a really good AI to autocomplete citations for academic papers. Like when I say “Bengt moral hazard in teams” it says: Holmstrom, Bengt. "Moral hazard in teams." The Bell Journal of Economics (1982): 324-340. How hard can that be?

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Best piece of professional advice I ever got—which happened to be just before my Econ job market. “Stop trying to convince people that you’re smart. Try to convince them that they’re smart.” Words to live by.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

The @NSWHealth vaccine hub at Sydney Olympic park is a model of efficiency and professionalism. Quick, friendly, professional. Thanks to all the staff who are getting the vaccine rollout done. And to @GladysB for her leadership.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

A friendly reminder to Australian academics contributing to public debate. It's not OK to attack early career researchers and untenured faculty. Especially not in nasty, personal terms. Better not to do that to anyone, but to the thugs and bullies--pick on people your own size.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Because we followed the exact opposite of the policies certain folks advocated. You’re welcome.

Adam Creighton

@Adam_Creighton

3 years

Australia's Covid "Crisis" in perspective.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

1 year

My latest column in @financialreview . We have a housing crisis, but rent controls will make it worse. That's what the best causal evidence is clear on. Supply, reforming planning & zoning regulations are the answer.

Why rent controls are a zombie idea

Detailed causal analysis shows that rent ceilings achieve the opposite of what politicians intended. Yet this dead policy has been dug up by the Greens.

www.afr.com

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

NSW Premier tells folks who are close contacts but in a supply chain to just go back to work if they don't have symptoms. What do you reckon the accuracy of that "test" is? I'll bet it's an awful lot lower than 96%. We've ricocheted from GOLD standard to BOG standard. Thanks, Dom

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

Remember the days when the Liberal Party believed in markets and, you know, liberalism?

Enraged, humiliated Taylor looks to block closures of coal-fired plants

Angus Taylor wants to prevent owners of coal-fired power plants from bringing forward their closures, with new rules dictating how companies will operate up to five years ahead.

www.crikey.com.au

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

After writing 75-100 opinion pieces a year for 6+ years and working on a major textbook project I've come to appreciate that I can do better at explaining the insights and joy the modern economics--of the frontier--to a broader audience. 6/6

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

I'm very pleased that my paper "Getting Dynamic Implementation to Work" w/ Yi-Chun Chen, Takashi Kunimoto, Yifei Sun & Tom Wilkening is forthcoming @JPolEcon . Our goal is to harness the power of dynamic implementation mechanisms but ensure they're robust. A thread. Buckle up.1/18

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

I will defend to the death Barnaby Joyce's right to misquote "not Voltaire, but the lady who summarized Voltaire."

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

@Adam_Creighton Adam. You could have said what’s going on in aged care is tragic. Could have said the economic damage of the virus is terrible. But you went on a “live free or die” rant. I hope you like the fringe echo chamber you’ve consigned yourself to. Because nobody else takes you seriously

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Richard Holden

@profholden

7 years

If that’s your gripe, prime minister, then stop appointing black letter lawyers to the High court.

Emma Alberici

@albericie

7 years

Sec 44 -The High Court’s interpretation was “disappointingly literal” - PM @BCAcomau

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

Exact right! Folks who were virulently anti-lockdown when there were not only no vaccines but no real contact tracing or testing have to own that. They wanted to let it rip in March last year. Some even advocated actively spreading the virus. No revisionist history thx.

Steven Hamilton

@SHamiltonian

3 years

TBC, the death cult didn’t say we should lift lock-downs once we’re fully vaccinated. They said let it rip without vaccination. Indeed, they want to let it rip today with only a fraction vaccinated. The right approach was always to lock down expressly to buy us time for vaccines.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

Exactly. Shows the importance of getting the counterfactual right when opining on COVID-19 containment measures.

Warwick McKibbin AO

@WarwickMcKibbin

4 years

Those who think that the Australian government shutdown is causing the economic loss haven’t looked at the Swedish data. Sweden has a much higher COVID19 death rate than Australia and a deep recession without a shutdown.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

On #insiders today @GregHuntMP said: "there was no other deal available for any earlier vaccines or any larger quantities." Simple follow up: isn't that because you didn't ask for one? Good governments don't wait for opportunities to present themselves. They make them happen.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

2 years

OK, I may not be a completely neutral observer. But @JennieDuke nails it here. @SHamiltonian and I have been on about this since mid last year.

Why making rapid antigen tests completely free makes economic sense

It’s wrong to assume making rapid antigen tests free will lead to infinite demand.

www.smh.com.au

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Richard Holden

@profholden

7 years

@GroverNorquist You were so thoughtful and relatable on @theaxefiles with @davidaxelrod . Then you go say this. Shame on you.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

3 years

There's plenty of discussion about the exact timing of @GladysB 's lockdown. Should it have been earlier? Perhaps. Probably? But let's focus on the first-order problem. The feds utterly bungled our vaccine strategy from DAY ONE. It's the Morrison gov that has COVID on their hands.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

It’s a grainy photo but my memory will never dim. Harvard economics department chair and PhD adviser Alberto Alesina handing me my PhD in 2006. I offered a handshake and he said, “Come on!” I miss you, Alberto.

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Richard Holden

@profholden

4 years

My piece today on cost-benefit analysis of lockdowns with @brucejpreston and Dr Jen Schaefer. The costs of the shutdown are overestimated -- they're outweighed by its $1 trillion benefit via @ConversationEDU @unsw @unswbusiness

The costs of the shutdown are overestimated – they’re outweighed by its $1 trillion benefit

A realistic estimate of the economic costs of a two-year lockdown amounts to $90 billion. The benefit in lives saved amounts to at $1.1 trillion.

theconversation.com

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