James Peacock @peacockreports Twitter profile

Pinned Tweet

James Peacock

10 months

A glossary thread to stick to my profile... NWP: Numerical weather prediction (models). ECMWF: NWP modelling by GFS: NWP modelling by UKM: NWM modelling by

Weather and climate change

Met Office weather forecasts for the UK. World leading weather services for the public.

www.metoffice.gov.uk

3

2

28

Last Seen Profiles

@HelloHashKey

@samake_zen62221

@TRAEANNAA

@Kat_shymaher93

@yorikvaa

@RizeKartali53

@Cronkite_ASU

@mod_mkh

@ReigateUK

@xievza

@sergio_pks

@pradak00

@TaciturnToast

@tern_et

@ZUrology

@isaiahbond_

@gezenhikayeci

@GoldRus31092788

@boxingfan121

@MoudjabPoilu

@AnnaSteinle

@Laurelldevane

@DataStaxDevs

@atodopulmonPY

@CBSSportsGang

@ryanlong03

@cattynakanaka

@johntayIorbot

@chrissy_u

@CoachRagland919

@z_celyn

@shidoktn

@ciira_cyrus

@nestico2020

@MEVthe1st

@HernanDarioDom2

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

For a large part of NW Europe, next week has serious potential to be among the most anomalously hot weeks on record. It's not often you see 5-day averages 6-8°C above climatology during summer or early autumn.

106

206

499

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

The latest seasonal modelling from ECMWF has among the strongest signals for above normal summer temperatures across most of #Europe that I've seen. Driven by a strong +NAO pattern, which also means below normal rainfall away from the far north. Could be a challenging season.

11

93

269

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Longer-term ensemble modelling for northern Europe says: We need as much as possible out of the cooler, wetter spell this coming week. For the week after, there's an(other) impressively strong signal for unusually warm & dry weather.

14

37

175

James Peacock

@peacockreports

19 days

The midday GFS model run was... something else. First, a strong hit from an ex-tropical Kirk on southern UK. Then, what looks to to be a barely ex-tropical, if at all transitioned, cyclone striking Portugal with near hurricane-force winds. Good thing it's 8-12 days away!

13

18

179

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

I've got to be honest, until temps began to escalate across large parts of the globe this year, I didn't think we'd see 850s reach more than 20°C over any part of the UK in September for at least another decade. Then I began to wonder... & now (well, very soon) here we are.

30

25

167

James Peacock

@peacockreports

3 years

The higher the wind speed, the more each mph matters. 80 mph exerts about twice as much force as 60 mph. Sadly, this will be very relevant Friday daytime in southern #UK , as #StormEunice powers through.

3

54

153

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 month

What takes place Tuesday night will be a near-optimal combination of high & low pressure areas for funnelling cold air from the Arctic Ocean to NW Europe via the UK. The systems are almost perfectly positioned, & intense enough for a strong pressure gradient between them.

12

19

155

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

An eyebrow-raising ECMWF ensemble mean this evening, featuring a more coherent signal for cold air to advance southward from the Arctic later next week, with the N half of Europe in its sights. In my opinion, the risk of ice & snow hazards by 10th has ticked up another notch⚠️

8

15

146

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

As concerning forecast model adjustments go, this is one of the bigger ones I've seen. A slightly stronger jet stream leads to both more rapid deepening & a northward shift in track; a double-edged sword of negatives.

8

12

143

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

For those who partake, this may be considered to have a slight negative impact on the quality of your breakfast tea brew, as water will boil at ~98.3°C (), which is sub-optimal for the steeping process. I wonder how many will actually notice a difference?

6

22

136

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

September ECMWF SEAS5 long-range prediction for Dec 2022. It's grim viewing from the perspective of keeping heating bills down in Europe. A south-shifted typical path of low pressure systems, with an above normal frequency of cold weather away from the SW & perhaps SE.

17

35

120

James Peacock

@peacockreports

9 months

Even as a scientist, it’s sometimes hard to take things as pure coincidence. This today is the first sunset after my granddad passed away at the ripe old age of 101 years, 11 months. It’s one of the most stunning I’ve ever witnessed first-hand.

11

3

124

James Peacock

@peacockreports

3 years

Latest SLP analysis for #StormEunice has it at 979 mb as of 9 pm GMT. 12z deterministic model predictions for 9 pm were: ECMWF 981 mb GFS 982 mb ICON 983 mb ARPEGE 984 mb ...so it's deepening faster than all of those predicted. Concerning! ⚠️

7

41

119

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

This might just be the most impressive ‘eye’ feature I’ve seen on a non-tropical, non-polar type low.

3

16

118

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Among the rarest sights around here: Frozen flood waters.

4

19

119

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 months

Taking a moment to appreciate how unusual the weather pattern affecting the UK will be this Friday. There's an airmass with up to ~17°C at 850 hPa streaming in from the east (2 m temps beneath easily mid-20s Fri aft.), while relatively cool & unstable air loiters to the S...

5

12

107

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

It happened. The GFS deterministic run topped 40 in the UK & decided to add an extra 1 while at it. Good thing this is a fortnight from today. Really is starting to bother me that so many model runs are reaching this level, though. I’ve never seen anything like it!

11

13

106

James Peacock

@peacockreports

9 months

The extended ECMWF forecast model run for mid-late Feb is an eyebrow-raiser for Europe. *If* this is near the mark: Polar jet stream shifted well south, making for an unusually wet setup in the south while the north experiences mainly cold, wintry conditions.

8

9

104

James Peacock

@peacockreports

11 months

Well would you look at that.

7

103

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Roundup of noon det. forecast model runs visible so far: GFS: Another move toward ECM 00z run with increased cold air transport across N. Europe from NNE. UKM: A slight move toward ECM 00z... it was already close. GEM: On par with ECM 00z. This means that...

3

12

102

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

Well, this is not what I wanted to see when checking back a day later. #MochaCyclone in full beast mode, now equivalent to a top-end category 4 hurricane, with peak sustained winds of 155 mph rated by JTWC. Likely to hit a large part of Bangladesh & northern Myanmar v. hard 😔

5

28

101

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 month

Gutted that I missed when the sun shone at 2 am this morning.

7

2

100

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

Scientifically #StormCiar án is a spectacular event in the making: A ~952 m b low running near or across southern England while sporting a warm seclusion (shallow warm core cyclone). This type of cyclone often exhibits rapid deepening & fierce southern flank winds. Case in point!

6

13

93

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Way too far ahead in time to take seriously but the ECM 00z sent an only just ex-tropical low right over southern UK in 10 days time. A fascinating low probability scenario that would bring a lot of rain & damaging winds along the Channel coasts.

13

18

92

James Peacock

@peacockreports

9 months

Stepping out in -8°C certainly wakes you up. Worth it for the scenes & the rare satisfaction of crossing very muddy areas with ease (frozen solid!).

3

9

89

James Peacock

@peacockreports

8 months

Having a 'what the heck just happened?' moment with the UKMET model. Gone is the build of high pressure through the UK next Wed onward, the polar jet instead staying much further south. Such a large change at only 5-7 days lead time raises big questions.

11

7

89

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Now THIS is the sort of warming signal that genuinely indicates a raised chance of a sudden stratospheric warming event. Large warm anomalies that propagate across the N. Pole & into the polar vortex circulation. Caution advised, however, as event initiation is 20+ days away.

7

11

86

James Peacock

@peacockreports

10 months

There has recently been a lot of forecast model support for a mild first few days of 2024, but the overnight runs have seen both GFS & ECMWF make large changes to the path of the jet stream, causing the polar boundary to straddle the UK instead of being up near Iceland…

5

6

88

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Hefty hoar frost here on the western edge of the New Forest this morning. While it’s kind of a ‘snow-lite’ it’s if anything an even rarer sight in these parts. Caused by freezing fog & a very slight breeze.

2

14

86

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

Latest summer forecast from ECMWF's seasonal backs up my thoughts of late: An 'interesting' summer for Europe, often very warm or hot but readily unstable; more thunderstorm activity than usual. Scandinavia perhaps a notably dry exception. Maybe northern UK too...

10

9

85

James Peacock

@peacockreports

10 months

Seems the major SSW was a major red herring albeit never having quite reached full ECMWF ensemble support. Instead we're likely looking at a minor SSW, displacing the polar vortex centre well from the N Pole but not by enough to reverse the 60N 10 hPa zonal wind mean. Then...

12

7

86

James Peacock

@peacockreports

10 months

As someone who despises the UK winter for its very damp inclination, I'm relieved to see a strong signal for mainly settled, dry weather during 1st half Jan. Good shot at having some overnight frosts to change up the scenery too. Small chance of snow showers in S/E ~7th.

5

4

85

James Peacock

@peacockreports

5 months

What's that, the weather hasn't been strange enough for you already? Ok, how about we have a low travelling from Italy to Iceland via Scotland next week? It even has support from the latest UKMET & ECMWF deterministic model runs!

9

10

84

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

Taking a few moments to absorb how strange the near-term weather pattern is for the Atlantic-Europe sector. The polar side of the jet stream boundary (i.e. to the north of it) spans an exceptionally large area for the time of year; it's more typical of Dec-Mar.

8

16

83

James Peacock

@peacockreports

23 days

⚠️ A severe weather event is unfolding as this small low heads northeast from the Channel. It's bringing around 2 hours of longer spells of very heavy rain onto an area with already saturated soils. Surface water flooding likely in many areas within its path ⚠️

6

14

85

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

Tell you what, after what we've been getting used to, it's going to feel mighty fresh by Tuesday night, when a polar maritime airmass will have reached most or all the UK. I for one will probably sleep like a stone after so many hot, humid nights.

15

2

83

James Peacock

@peacockreports

9 months

Good luck getting a good night's sleep tomorrow night, it's going to be a noisy one! Looking especially nasty for northern N. Ireland, far-north-western Ireland, & far-western Scotland.

7

4

83

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

The ECMWF ensemble is now showing considerable interest in negative NAO setups with a high NW of Europe & low over Scandinavia as soon as 20th Feb. This likely has much to do with the forecast MJO propagation being accelerated. Now it looks -NAO conducive by ~23rd Feb.

6

13

81

James Peacock

@peacockreports

10 months

Interesting situation for N Europe, poss. E. USA too as we begin 2024. Stalled MJO-like forcing over the E'rn Indian Ocean coupled with the ongoing El Niño event plus minor sudden stratospheric warming is a recipe for high pressure to migrate N from UK to Greenland-Svalbard...

4

9

81

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

Triggering as these maps may be for some, I've no control over the shading used anyway. Still a large area of 8-10°C above the 1991-2020 average, for a period now spanning 8 days combined. Note the focus on departure from average, that's the key here.

13

3

79

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

The GFS 12z has moved in line with the overnight ECMWF & UKV runs, although not as extreme as the ECMWF one (which probably did overdo it a bit). The eyebrows of this resident of far-southern Britain are very raised. Never a done deal with snow over 24 hours in advance, though.

9

82

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Local to me, this winter is becoming noteworthy for the number of nights dropping well below 0°C. To this point, only 6 years on record have seen more nights reach -3°C or lower, while just 3 have seen more hitting -5°C or lower!

7

83

James Peacock

@peacockreports

10 months

The very midpoint of the month continues to be when the forecast models predict that high pressure will have shifted fully to the northwest of Europe, with cold air advancing from the north. Note the total lack of highs anywhere in Europe - this is important...

2

7

82

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

ECMWF's 12z deterministic run gave me flashbacks to Jan-Feb 2014, when we saw several instances of deep lows arriving at such high frequency that later ones swung into the remnants of earlier ones. That run of weeks was more than a little bit wet & windy. Way more 😬

11

3

82

James Peacock

@peacockreports

3 months

Interesting scenarios appearing for late July - it’s been an absolute age since an over 1030 mb high was predicted to encompass the UK by any of the leading forecast models’ deterministic runs. Chance of a more sustained settled spell - but too far out to be confident in yet.

4

11

82

James Peacock

@peacockreports

11 months

(1/n) The mid to high-latitude blocking pattern being modelled next week is becoming among the most fascinating I've seen origin-wise. I think this setup on Sun is important: Simultaneous deep lows both just W of Greenland (1) & over SE Europe (2).

3

9

80

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

The midday run of the GFS forecast model produced a rare event next Sat: A trough split against the Greenland ice sheet while a strong high nosed across that island from the west. This combination drives a strong wave reflection which splits the #PolarVortex from beneath. 1/n

3

13

81

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

All but 5 of the 51 ECMWF ensemble runs (i.e. 90%) have a tech. sudden stratospheric warming event sometime 15th-17th Feb. The mean hits -10 m/s which would be good going for a displacement type event (the current majority vote). A few hit -20 or lower, impressive territory.

2

7

78

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

The UKM forecast model seemed to develop a warm core (tropical-like) low between NW France & SW England next Monday. Similar to a 'medicane'. An extreme scenario, unlikely but not implausible given the expected unstable environment with plenty of warm air in the mix.

4

14

77

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

Uh… you okay there ECMWF? That’s a pretty extreme deterministic model run you just produced UK-wise. Improbable… but not implausible.

12

6

76

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

A week from today might mark the start of an extended break from the unsettled, Atlantic-driven weather pattern that has dominated the weather across NW Europe in recent weeks. BUT there is some crucial fine detail yet to be fully resolved... 🧵 1/n

4

6

78

James Peacock

@peacockreports

4 years

This is really impressive for an ensemble averaged, 5-day averaged temperature anomaly. Even in the UK, models predict widely near-freezing daytime maxima for 3-5 days in a row, with the wind chill 3 to 6°C below zero. Dangerous conditions to be out & about in... take care.

8

24

74

James Peacock

@peacockreports

10 months

GFS' recent modelling of what goes on in the western N. Atlantic next weekend is absolute chaos; huge run-to-run changes. This has a strong bearing on how much & for how long cold air affects the UK during 24th-26th. Hence we're struggling to get a sense of what will happen.

5

10

77

James Peacock

@peacockreports

10 months

Someone forgot to tell ECMWF's det. model that the Azores High is meant to be weakened during an El Niño. Serious back hat on, even allowing for the role of sub-seasonal variability via e.g. MJO events, seeing such a strong high there would be extraordinary.

13

7

77

James Peacock

@peacockreports

29 days

Looming.

5

2

77

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Some impressively low thickness values in some of the forecast modelling for the middle of next week over the UK. Broadly speaking, values of 524-528 mean precipitation will probably (not always) remain as snow to low elevations. Sub 524, it becomes very likely.

5

9

75

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

One thing I will remember this winter for is an abundance of heavy frosts.

6

1

73

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

I can't recall a previous July for which GFS produced so many forecast runs hitting the mid-30s at some point. The latest is the most extreme so far. A long way out so not to be taken as given - but I think it's worth taking note of the raised potential for such heat.

9

10

74

James Peacock

@peacockreports

11 months

Quite some forecast model shenanigans going on regarding the possible colder weather late next week. GFS keeps making the most of it, UKMET is tending to be close but not as pronounced with it, & ECMWF is simply having none of it 🤨

9

4

75

James Peacock

@peacockreports

11 months

From my local perspective in far-S England, the ECMWF 12z det. run was almost a nightmare scenario for next Fri. 15-20 mm of very not needed rainfall while it snows heavily a hundred-odd miles to the north. My full-on nightmare would be that occurring during the daytime.

5

3

73

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

Get this… I’m seeing increasing support for very warm air to move across S UK from the SE sometime Thu-Sat. On the boundary, it could be very wet. Within it, mid-20s look readily achievable. Far from resolved to what extent that very warm airmass advances NW, mind.

12

3

72

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Well, it happened. In fact the 12z ECMWF det. run was if anything even more emphatic, driving cold air to the UK from the NNE a bit faster than before. The 12z ensemble set is almost entirely in support of the det. run for 8th-10th Dec. It's now more 'odds on', in my view 🧊⚠️

4

26

74

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

So here we are, 100% ECMWF ensemble support for a major SSW on 16th or 17th Feb. Looking back at prior updates, the signal for a SSW became substantial at 14-15 days lead time but only really assertive at 10-11 days lead. Run counts shown are approximate.

5

20

70

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

The North Atlantic-Europe weather pattern is... stuck, until further notice. Dry & variably cool-warm for the UK. Mainly cool & mostly dry for NE Europe. Cool & unsettled for much of SW Europe, often unsettled in the SE too but with some drier, hotter days in the mix.

10

73

James Peacock

@peacockreports

17 days

Something to keep an eye on as we approach the N. Hemisphere winter: Ozone levels in the Arctic troposphere & stratosphere are currently record-high for the time of year. Higher ozone tends to lead to a warmer stratosphere, especially during solar maximum - which we're now at...

4

8

72

James Peacock

@peacockreports

11 months

A striking SLP pattern shaping up for next week. Overnight modelling has been more interested in keeping more in the way of cold air in play across the UK, but still not to the extent that low elev. snowfall can occur readily (GFS tends to be too keen!). Elsewhere in Europe...

2

7

73

James Peacock

@peacockreports

9 months

Starting to see some more emphatic pattern shifts in the ECMWF ensemble for about a week into Feb. The largest cluster of the latest update, ~31% of the set, removes the long-lived high from Iberia & establishes one around Iceland instead - a cold pattern for much of Europe.

4

9

70

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Here it comes - the leading edge of the long-heralded Arctic maritime air has now crossed Scotland on its way south. Many convective cells evident over the ocean waters. Ahead of it, nice to see the low cloud breaking up a bit, some seeing a bit of welcome sunshine.

2

11

72

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

If you like dots on maps, you're in luck. The shading represents how long ago lightning was detected. Looks to be a hundred or so in the last 5 mins between Oxford & Newbury alone. Intense! Radar viewer hosted by

6

10

72

James Peacock

@peacockreports

10 months

The stratosphere continues to be of great interest this month. We see the huge wave-1 forcing responsible for displacing the polar vortex toward N. Europe (NB: not at the surface!), plus two rounds of wave-2, the 2nd of which is really raising my eyebrows...

2

8

70

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 months

There's a growing signal for hot air to advance as far north as England & Wales during the weekend & perhaps into the start of next week. *Might* see another day or two reaching the 30s in C/S/E England. Beyond that, details are too uncertain to be worth covering yet.

3

9

70

James Peacock

@peacockreports

16 days

There continue to be a lot of wild scenarios in the forecast modelling for ex-Kirk in 7-8 days time. However, while nearly all runs bring it to NW Europe, there's a wide spread of landfall locations, from Scotland to SW France (00z ECMWF & GFS det. just happen to be similar).

4

9

70

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Overall, forecast modelling has again moved in favour of very cold (relative to norm) weather affecting UK by 10th Dec. Even for London, there's now a sizable cluster of ECMWF ensemble runs with daytime highs in the 1-3°C range by then. I now consider this a medium probability.

4

6

68

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

It's now very likely that central & northern Europe will be affected by an easterly flow during 2nd half of next week. ...but it's no 'Beast from the East' (2018). Here it is on the left versus a typical model prediction for later next week. A much colder airmass in the BFTE.

6

10

66

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

What happens when a southerly breeze off the Channel moves into calm, clear conditions? A mighty jump in temperature! I believe this is the largest hourly change I've ever noticed at Bournemouth Airport.

3

9

69

James Peacock

@peacockreports

22 days

I'm staggered that, having already seen extreme quantities of rainfall, forecast models are predicting central-S England to be within the main impact area for rainfall Sunday-Monday as well. I can see there being a lot of places logging their wettest Sep on record 🙁

13

2

69

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Easily over a foot of level snow there in Sheffield this morning.

4

6

68

James Peacock

@peacockreports

9 months

The latest GFS run made a southward adjustment to the low affecting the UK later this week, but not the adjustment east that's needed to bring it in line with other modelling. This positioning is very important going forward...

8

1

66

James Peacock

@peacockreports

9 months

ECMWF's ensemble continues to show increasing interest in a major SSW, although still without a majority producing more than a brief reversal. I'd like to see more heading down toward -10 or so before deeming a 'proper' (i.e. not the reflective type) major SSW to be on the cards.

3

5

68

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

A look at the crucial details for next weeks *possible* cold easterly flow development. On Mon, a strong surge of warm air heads toward the vicinity of Svalbard. This facilitates development of a high over Scandinavia. The exact shape & strength of that surge matters a lot.

4

2

66

James Peacock

@peacockreports

9 months

The noon ECMWF det. run had a nice demo of what tends to occur when a slow moving low attempts to displace an Arctic airmass: The denser cold air disrupts the circulation of that low, causing a new smaller circulation to manifest & 'run' eastward along the cold/mild boundary.

2

6

66

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Found a UKV prediction chart I archived two days prior to the record-breaking 25th July 2019. Compare that with the current chart for next Monday... heat far more widespread & even more intense😬 Still time for it to adjust cooler but the recent trend is against that.

3

20

66

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Cross-model agreement now on the UK & Ireland being under air cold enough to support snowfall down to at least 'high ground' (~200 m amsl), potentially low levels inland, by Thu 8th. Probably mainly dry inland & along S coast, but convergence lines are possible (e.g. as shown).

5

65

James Peacock

@peacockreports

10 months

Strongest signal for a major SSW so far in today's extended ECMWF ensemble update. Yet still far from assuring - a substantial cluster of runs continues to have other ideas. Need that to disappear before we can really start to be confident in a major SSW occurring ~5th-7th Jan.

3

9

66

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 months

Been seeing the supposed 'warm September, mild winter' connection waved about again. Using 1773-2024 Hadley Central England temperature anomalies versus a rolling 30-year climatology, it's clear that there's no real correlation. (Pearson's R is just 0.064!)

13

15

67

James Peacock

@peacockreports

9 months

Having had an unusually cold winter so far even by their standards, Scandinavia is now able to generate deep cold pools in-situ with relative ease. Due to the expected blocked pattern, there will be a risk of some of that finding its way across NW Europe in 2nd half Jan.

4

67

James Peacock

@peacockreports

18 days

This looks like high agreement regarding ex-hurricane (-to be) Kirk's impact on the UK... until you spot that the 1st chart is for two days later in time. In truth, we can never presume much about what an ex-tropical cyclone will be doing in a week or more's time.

4

1

67

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Fact: The GFS forecast model terribly underestimates overnight cooling under slack conditions with clear skies. One of it's most dependable biases.

7

8

65

James Peacock

@peacockreports

8 months

So, whatever happened to the possible cold easterly reaching the UK early next week? Well, the low overhead this weekend splits, some heading E but more of it NW. This ratio once looked to be the other way around, which would have encouraged an easterly instead of westerly flow.

8

5

65

James Peacock

@peacockreports

11 months

Reviewing the most recent two ECMWF det. runs, pretty sure it's made one of the largest corrections I've ever seen from the model at within 3 days lead time. Note the low to the south of Greenland; it's 100-odd miles further S on the latest run...

6

7

66

James Peacock

@peacockreports

20 days

Hate to say it, but I'm seeing ominous signals for v. wet Ireland & UK weather setting in again from ~6th October. High pressure looks to be over Greenland, but far enough away that we see a 'west-based negative NAO' setup, which draws up warm, moist air from the (S)SW...

6

2

66

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

Not seen lightning this frequent in about 8 years.

6

7

63

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

I don't usually post outlandish weather charts at long lead times but had to share this from the GEM 00z. It tests the very limits of plausibility with a heat plume peaking at 25°C at the 850 hPa height level over the SE UK coast. Record-smashing & inherently unlikely, yet...

14

7

64

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

High confidence now that a very warm, moisture-laden airmass will spread northward across NW Europe during Wed-Sun. With that comes a marked change for the British Isles & northern Low Countries. A sultry feel with showers & thunderstorms around, mainly well-scattered.

5

6

63

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Widespread mid 30s to low 40s temps, wind gusts to 30-40 mph & higher on high ground, parched vegetation… looks to me like tomorrow afternoon could bring the most extreme #wildfire risk the UK has faced in modern records ⚠️😬

4

23

63

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

I had one hell of a forecast to write this morning. With the global prediction models, it broadly seems to be a case of this side of the pond (UKV/UKM, ECMWF) versus the other (GFS, CMET/GEM). The former group has widespread snowfall in S England Wed. Latter, patchy at most!

4

9

63

James Peacock

@peacockreports

8 months

The GFS forecast model really can be like a dog with a bone when it gets an idea for the 7+ day lead times. Be it rightly or wrongly so! Latest run is pretty dramatic for 22nd Feb, a powerful yet very south-shifted jet stream with very low pressure over the UK. *Just a scenario*

2

3

64

James Peacock

@peacockreports

6 months

Climate change isn't just about the magnitude of events, but their frequency too. Top of the pile being when you get two record-breaking events within a week of each other.

Dave Throup

@DaveThroup

6 months

A week after last weekend's heatwave it looks like another potentially record breaking upper airmass will move across Spain & France. Temperatures above 30C again possible if conditions are favourable.

6

16

75

3

15

61

James Peacock

@peacockreports

2 years

Later this week will see impressive temperature contrasts take shape between north-western / central-northern Europe & the rest of the continent plus north-western Africa. Close to the typical negative NAO temp. anomaly pattern of the 20th century so far.

1

10

62

James Peacock

@peacockreports

1 year

@ThePlanetaryGuy Let's say we use the Milky-Way derived approximation of 100 billion stars per galaxy, on average. Then there are more than 45 quadrillion stars in this field of view. 45 thousand trillion. 45 million billion.

6

9

62