Paul Romer Profile
Paul Romer

@paulmromer

93,713
Followers
502
Following
287
Media
4,416
Statuses

I no longer post to this account. There is at least one person who is pretending to be me with a handle that adds an "s" to the end of my handle.

Boston College
Joined November 2012
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
Pinned Tweet
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
10 months
Does this seem like a real person to you? Or some LLM? Could Elon be boosting numbers and engagement by using bot accounts, as Ashley Maddison did? But even better, maybe he is creating bots that pretend to be people who were once on twitter and have left?
Tweet media one
5
1
18
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
The twitter thread version of my plan: 0. Stop testing people with symptoms. Presume positive and isolate.
96
1K
3K
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
5 years
If policy makers are stuck with frequent, long periods of lockdown, it will kill business and consumer confidence. No one can plan. No one will invest. We lose many $trillions. If we spent $100 billion on testing, can contain the virus with no lockdowns. Sounds cheap to me.
Tweet media one
60
890
2K
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
6 years
Schedule for Dec. 10: - Brkfst: Tell parents about surprise noontime event - 10 am: Rehearse for award ceremony - Noon: Get married - 4:30 pm: Receive medal from the King - 7:00 pm: Go to dinner with my new wife, our families, and 1,200 others
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
75
225
2K
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
3 years
Why Lisa Cook is a better nominee for the Board of Governors of the Fed than John Cochrane would be -- or than I would be.
29
275
1K
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
5 years
Others who have reached the same conclusion I’ve been promoting: “To stop COVID-19, test everyone, repeatedly”
19
565
978
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
5 years
We have an economic crisis because it is not safe for people to work or consume. Our Congress just passed a bill that will spend $2.2 trillion to deal with the crisis. Can anyone identify any spending in this bill devoted to making it safe for people to work and consume?
31
225
876
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
The Most Important Policy Decision In Our Lifetimes In a week dominated by horrible news, there are signs that the Senate may make the right choice when it passes a new response to the pandemic in July: 0/18
25
386
789
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
6 years
For some background on my work on economic growth, this post might also be helpful:
31
401
786
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
This is madness. C.D.C. Now Says People Without Covid-19 Symptoms Do Not Need Testing Why does leadershop at the CDC provide no explanation? Why did they refer questions about the change to HHS? Are they now just puppets?
50
364
750
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
6. When someone tells you that “we could never test that many people,” ask “ok, so your plan is to stand by and do nothing as asymptomatic spreaders kill their colleagues?”
11
119
674
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Fox viewers seem unhappy about my reminder this morning that deaths from the pandemic are like: - another 9-11 attack on NYC every three days - another Titanic disaster every day and a half
60
95
582
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
6 years
Close for my Nobel lecture: “And remember, there is a reason we call it the enlightenment. “So yes, let there be light. Let there be light in daily life. But let there be light too in our spirits and our souls."
12
133
570
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
So what does the field evidence show? 1. Days 13-24 post first injection w Pfizer, risk of becoming infected falls by 50%. 1/6
Tweet media one
7
150
529
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
The amazing thing is how little money it takes to do something like this that will have such an enormous value to society. The “social” rate of return on the money that the NBA spent will be enormous.
@SammyKoppelman
Sam Koppelman
4 years
The world is so bleak, we don't celebrate good news enough, but this is super cool: The NBA funded a COVID-19 test that's much less invasive, much less expensive, and just as effective. Any decent government would now produce billions of these.
14
290
1K
9
114
527
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
1. Offer all frontline health care workers a quick turnaround molecular test for presence of the virus (RT-PCR or LAMP test). Isolate if positive.
6
62
492
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
7. Note that people at Broad Institute say “Given the low cost and scalability of next-generation sequencing, we believe that this method can be affordably scaled to analyze millions of samples per day using existing sequencing infrastructure.”
4
81
484
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Reason to be cheerful! The Biden team is putting together a plan for fighting the pandemic and for opening schools that makes good sense. Such a welcome change.
42
82
479
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
6 years
Thoughts about open source (Jupyter) vs proprietary software (Mathematica) prompted by the Somers article:
14
197
483
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
5. Universities with credibility (including Stanford and Cornell) are simply ignoring the CDC and adopting testing programs that screen everyone on campus frequently: 5/18
6
97
472
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
3 years
One of the things I've learned about policy work is that one has to be patient and poised to act. Even if an argument is logically coherent and consistent with the facts, one has to watch and wait for an opening when people are receptive and able to understand it. 1/N
11
83
467
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
11. When you strip away all the noise and nonsense, note that once we cover essential workers, its easy test everyone in the US once every two weeks. Just do it. Isloate anyone who tests positlve.
8
88
465
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
3 years
. @EricTopol and @ashishkjha The Lancet critique of boosters says decision "should be evidence-based and consider the benefits and risks for individuals and society" But it contains not even one sentence claiming that risks exceed benefits. 1/n
30
103
442
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
5 years
My proposal for saving the tech industry. And democracy.
@nytopinion
New York Times Opinion
5 years
A tax on targeted ad revenue would force big tech companies to change the business models that are hurting our democracy, writes Paul Romer, a Nobel-winning economist
7
129
231
18
163
439
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Bottlenecks The more I look into this, the more cases I see where the short-run scarcities and bottlenecks are the result of an FDA approval process for tests that is very specific about inputs — use these specific RNA extraction kits sold by these firms; these specific swabs...
18
126
442
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Why the stimulus bill is not enough. We have a very long way to go to get back to where the labor market was at the end of Clinton's term. Notice, btw, the good performance after Clinton raised taxes and the weak / nonexistent effect of the Bush and Trump tax cuts.
Tweet media one
24
148
432
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
People who want schools to open have good intentions, but this does not give them license to mischaracterize the evidence. Children do contribute to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 Saying they don’t is just as bad as saying that masks do not work We need open schools w frequent tests
@DrZoeHyde
Dr Zoë Hyde
4 years
My paper on #COVID19 , children, and schools is now published, with new material added. "We can no longer afford to overlook the role children play in transmission if we hope to contain the virus." Precautions must be put in place in schools. #auspol
Tweet media one
70
943
2K
24
105
432
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
5. Do the math. Discover that you need millions of test per day.
6
49
427
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
It is time to have a serious conversation about why things have gone so wrong at CDC. It is doing enormous damage to its scientific credibility.
19
146
423
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
13. Check in on the folks who will still be arguing about how to implement some kinda sorta obligatory tracking system. Ask them how they are doing with getting the members of QAnon comfortable with their scheme.
33
40
412
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Ubiquitous testing is not like Kennedy’s moonshot. It is like Eisenhower’s Interstate Highway System, proposed at a time when we already knew how to build roads. Now, as then, we just need to go big.
11
119
400
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
2. Offer the same type of test, which can identify asymptomatic spreaders, to every patrol officer who rides with a colleague. Offer the entire department the option of testing at the start of each shift.
4
45
410
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
3 years
@Allname50801953 @realChrisBrunet Bullshit. EJR is a sewer full of cowards, snowflakes, and trolls. There is no such thing as anonymous science. By the way, which are you?
9
16
395
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
6 years
Now it is both me and my server that are having trouble keeping up. Thanks to the many people I was not able to acknowledge directly!
26
39
395
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
8. When people say, “SWABS!” tell them to talk to the people at Rutgers who are applying for permission to test saliva samples.
7
72
382
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
From @DrLeanaWen The vaccine rollout is giving me flashbacks to the administration’s testing debacle. … Instead of admitting that there wasn’t enough testing, administration officials followed a playbook to confuse and obfuscate
13
111
368
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
3. Extend to pharmacists. (EMTs should be included among front line health care professionals.)
5
37
371
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Univ. of Illinois UC has about 57 thousand students and staff. It looks like they are testing about 70 thousand people per week, hence testing everyone roughly once a week. If we extend this to the US as a whole, this would mean testing about 50 million people per day. 1/N
Tweet media one
10
99
363
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
4. Extend to other essential workers such as transit workers. (FYI, > 40 employees of the MTA in NY have died of covid-19.)
4
48
362
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
3 years
Re announcement today from World Bank Perhaps it is more clear now why I encouraged the new World Bank President back in 2019 to outsource its entire research function. "Diplomacy and science cannot both thrive under the same roof."
5
96
357
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Implication of the very clear analysis by @nataliexdean and @CT_Bergstrom : If we let the virus spread but limit the death rate to the peak of 2500 per day from in Apr: => 400 days of carnage to past the million deaths before getting to herd immunity
19
178
352
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
This week's cover of Bloomberg Business Week:
Tweet media one
9
93
356
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
12. Check your math. Surprise, R0 < 1. Pandemic is on glide path to 0. No new outbreaks. No need for any more shutdowns. Let everyone go back to normal.
12
39
350
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Very cool that Bob Wilson got the prize along with one of his students — a first AFAIK. Bob’s track record in mentoring prize winning PhD students at the Stanford Business School is unprecented. - Al Roth - Bengt Holmstrom - and today, Paul Milgrom.
7
59
351
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Me on CNN: It’s like 2% of our cars are time bombs.
45
117
336
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
5 years
COVID-19 test should be like a latte. - Get them each morning - Less than $10 - Available at drive-through We shrank computers bigger than a room to fit in your pocket. If we try, we can vastly improve testing. Probably for less than $850 billion. #test =latte
11
99
335
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
17. Remote learning is harming students from poor families to a much greater extent than students from affluent families 17/18
Tweet media one
8
95
329
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
5 years
Roche announced “results within 4 hours.” Cepheid announced “results within 45 minutes.” Nagasaki University and Canon unit are now saying “results within 10 minutes.” It’s only been a few days and we are already getting close to the time it takes to prepare a latte!
@FilipJole
Filip Jolevski
5 years
@Alheri @paulmromer We might be getting even closer:
3
19
32
8
112
336
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
If you don’t believe that the FDA is willing and able to shut down someone who tries to do tests for SARS-CoV-2, read the accounts of its actions in the last 5 months:
6
126
334
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
In US, those who have never had covid-19 have prob of infection of about 0.2% per day. For previosly infected, the prob of reinfection is less than 0.000002% per day. To stop the spread of the virus, the priority is to vaccinate first those who have not yet been infected.
22
50
336
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Pay careful attention to the point that the author makes about the problems they are running into in Singapore. If *they* can’t keep R0 less than one with modest testing + aggressive contact tracing, nobody can. Ubiquitous testing is the only way out.
7
139
314
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Ignore the noise! We are making progress. - Many voices demand testing. - Congress has responded with the first $25 billion. - Next, pust to spend as much on testing as we do on soda: $45-50 billion per year. Rest of this thread: the existing voices. Add yours!
16
82
316
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
3 years
Perhaps it is also easier to understand why I decided to get myself fired as Chief Economist rather than to keep working in a position where I reported to Kristalina Georgieva:
Tweet media one
5
70
320
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
5 years
If you isolate those who test positive, even a really bad test will slow the spread of a pandemic. And when I say bad, I mean bad — an 80% false negative rate
16
139
314
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Me on Fox News: Why $100 billion on virus testing would be money well spent. Isolating the few who are infectious is the only way to solve both the health and economics crises that cost us $500 billion, yes $500 billion, in lost output each month.
9
107
302
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
If you think that there is no evidence that a strategy of test and isolate can work, check out today’s numbers for the Univ. of Illinois Urbana-Champaign. That is not a typo: 7-day positivity rate of 0.36%. Compare with WY where it now exceeds 50%.
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
@EricTopol
Eric Topol
4 years
Yes, America, there is a state with a 62.9% test positivity, the 3rd highest new cases per capita in the world, and a rapidly rising death rate
Tweet media one
28
319
778
10
100
299
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
6 years
A very nice piece by @joshgans
16
143
294
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
9. When “REAGENTS FOR RNA EXTRACTION!” say that we can test for the virus without using the RNA extraction kits that were mandated as part of the original FDA approval of RT-PCR tests. See papers in the last few days on bioRxiv describng work arounds to reagent shortage.
8
47
293
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
"You have to have the reimbursement system pay a little bit extra for 24 hours, pay the normal fee for 48 hours, and pay nothing [if it isn’t done by then]. And they will fix it overnight.” @BillGates gets it exactly right on how to fix paymt for tests.
8
101
296
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Effective graphic for convincing any doubters that covid-19 is way different from and way worse than the flu; or heart disease; or cancer; or accidents; or chronic lung disease; or stroke; or …
30
192
291
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Re “test everyone every two weeks” “That’s not going to happen” is intellectual cowardice. If you think it is not worth making it happen, just say so and explain why.
24
73
287
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
If the people who ran the NBA can understand a simple cost-benefit calculation, why do so many others seem not to? My quote below in @bzcohen ’s strory in the WSJ:
Tweet media one
13
56
292
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
I am a big believer in talking to people from other disciplines. To illustrate, I’ll tell a story about a brief coinversation with @CT_Bergstrom that was literally one of the of high points of my entire career. 1/N
4
39
294
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
6 years
Bill Nordhaus and me onstage after our Nobel lectures. My lecture:
Tweet media one
5
69
286
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
CDC says that it “does not recommend entry testing of all returning students, faculty, and staff.” Response from Cornell: Your recommendation is indefensible. We did the math.
9
114
276
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
If you support a policy that requires highly skilled strong government to pull it off; and if Singapore can’t make it work; might be time to consider alternatives.
8
98
284
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
My father (12 years governor of Colorado, 6 years superintendent of LA Unified School District) and I (founder of a company that did remote education and student of economic growth, human capital, and knowledge) make a plea: Let’s open schools that can actually teach students
Tweet media one
9
97
274
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
What I find breathtaking is the assertion that Walensky is doing a worse job of communicating the steps the nation has to take. Her statements have been far more honest almost everything her predecessor, Giroir, even Fauci have said. But hey, she's not one of the guys. 6/6
13
19
276
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
"When the history of the coronavirus crisis is written, the absence of a national testing strategy to better slow the virus’s spread while speeding the reopening of the economy and schools may go down as the biggest government failure." @GeraldFSeib
14
102
267
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Roadmap to Responsibly Reopen America
Tweet media one
Tweet media two
22
123
271
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
18. With the type of pooled surveillance testing that Cornell is adopting, this nation can reopen schools safely and get all children back into the learning environment that works -- a real classroom. 18/18
21
62
252
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
2 years
Inflation in the US looks similar to inflation in peer countries https: 1/3
Tweet media one
1
77
258
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Someone in China understands how valuable it is to find and isolate hundreds of infectious individuals in a city who could be the source of the next outbreak. Note that they are using pooling to scale up the capacity to test.
10
101
254
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
3 years
@EricTopol @ashishkjha The paper is yet another embarrassment. It is advocacy that pretends to be science. It discredits everyone who tries to uphold the standards of scientific integrity. 12/n
10
28
256
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
16. Remote learning is failing all students 16/18
Tweet media one
12
60
249
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
More than infuriated, I’m dumbfounded. What are the "reasonable people" thinking? In denial about the horror of default options? - Give up fight against virus: 1 million deaths over more than a year - Hang on and muddle through: catastrophe worse than Great Depression
12
63
254
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
10. When people say that we have to have an elaborate system for tracing contacts before we can move forward, point out that the CDC is saying we do not have to bother testing essential workers who are known contacts so shortage of contacts is not the problem we face.
6
41
251
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
. @mattyglesias offers a terrific overview of 7 sensible responses to the pandemic. - They are complementary. - Every one offers benefits far greater than cost — probably by factor of more than 100. - We should be doing all of them.
3
132
251
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Test Every American for Covid-19 "The national goal should be testing every American once a week for four weeks. "
17
76
251
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
3 years
Faster growth gives negative bias to naive estimate of omicron severity. Using recent rates of growth from @trvrb and @twenseleers , the bias is by an order of magnitude. This graph gives a qualitative explanation. Blog post calculates the numbers.
Tweet media one
23
82
254
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
14. Universities can pay for surveillance testing, but K12 schools, facing budget cuts and layoffs, cannot reopen as Stanford Medical Center did or as Cornell will unless the Feds provide the funding for the tests. 14/18
6
58
248
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
6. Cornell: "Our modeling shows that this testing must be done early and often ... [but] testing every student is impractical and cost-prohibitive. An essential part of an effective screening strategy, then, is pooled testing ... " 6/18
3
48
239
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Without More Tests, America Can’t Reopen And to make matters worse, we’re testing the wrong people.
@TheAtlantic
The Atlantic
4 years
"To safely reopen closed businesses and revive American social life, we need to perform many more tests—and focus them on the people most likely to spread COVID-19, not sick patients," Ezekiel J. Emanuel and @paulmromer write:
58
488
994
40
76
228
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
5 years
"How to Prevent a Coronavirus Depression: If we keep up our current strategy, our economy will die.” By Alan Garber (MD, Ph.D. economist, and Provost at Harvard) and me.
16
118
239
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
It is strikiing how much of his reputation for journalistic integrity @DouthatNYT was willing to trade away for a chance to claim that Trump’s pandemic response was mediocre. 1/N
13
48
227
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Sounds to me a lot like the question of whether I can say that I will not be hit by a meteor this afternoon. I do say things like this when I am trying to communicate clear on urgent issues. If you want the pedantry police to lock me up, give them a call. 5/6
Tweet media one
5
13
234
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Is there no one left with the courage and integrity to resist the pressure to corrupt science for political gain?
12
39
230
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
@nataliexdean @CT_Bergstrom "Unless you’ve got a credible, understandable way to make the fear go away, we will not get the recovery we need.” Giving up on containing the virus is going to make the fear worse for a long time.
8
100
224
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
3 years
@realChrisBrunet If you are going to quote people who claim to do science in the sewer of EJR, I don't want you in my feed.
5
4
225
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
1. The Feds are moving past denial: "Asked why the administration’s stance has changed now, Dr. Fauci referred to the alarming rise in infections nationwide. 'Obviously, things are not going in the right direction,' he said." 1/18 quotes wo source from
3
48
223
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
15. If K12 schools do not have the funds to implement a program of surveillance testing that keeps infected teachers and students out of the classroom, they will follow the CDC guidance, and keep relying on remote learning programs. 15/18
5
42
217
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
. @brucetempleton You asked: What if the new mutation is 70% more infectious? We should do what we should have done from the beginning — test and isolate. 1/3
11
43
215
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
Where is the outcry from the scientists at the FDA and the CDC over the corruption of their agencies? Being a scientist is like being a pilot. Usually, an easy job. But during an emergency, you need every bit of courage, integrity and analytical capacity you can muster.
@EricTopol
Eric Topol
4 years
@ScottGottliebMD @SteveFDA @US_FDA Now, tragically, there is zero credibility for the upcoming @US_FDA review of #SARSCoV2 vaccines in the months ahead. The @CDCgov was muzzled months ago. All this, as far as I know, is unprecedented in American history.
13
171
466
5
45
217
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
3. Contact tracing is not working: 'Dr. Fauci acknowledged that the country was not adequately isolating people. But, he added, above a certain level of infection, “the core paradigm of identification, isolation and contact tracing just doesn’t work.”' 3/18
4
29
216
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
The very first point I tried to make about testing, way back in March, was that using a sensitivity far lower than 95% to isolate some people who are infectious would slow the spread of the virus. So this is very good news.
@drsanjaygupta
Dr. Sanjay Gupta
4 years
Breaking: Abbott just announced they have been given emergency use authorization for a rapid antigen test. They say: 15 minutes. 5 dollars. Greater than 95% sensitivity and no machine or lab required, adding they have the ability to make 50 million tests per month by October.
Tweet media one
396
2K
8K
8
51
216
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
5 years
S Korean officials understood: 1. Possibly inaccurate test = bad 2. No test = worse From Reuters: "South Korea took a risk, releasing briskly vetted tests, then circling back later to spot check their effectiveness."
7
100
211
@paulmromer
Paul Romer
4 years
The Public Should Ignore Both Skepticism About Testing in Wuhan and Recommendations for Repeated Lockdowns; and Scientists Should Take Care A thread that will lead to this ... 1/
4
96
218