Does this seem like a real person to you? Or some LLM?
Could Elon be boosting numbers and engagement by using bot accounts, as Ashley Maddison did? But even better, maybe he is creating bots that pretend to be people who were once on twitter and have left?
If policy makers are stuck with frequent, long periods of lockdown, it will kill business and consumer confidence. No one can plan. No one will invest. We lose many $trillions.
If we spent $100 billion on testing, can contain the virus with no lockdowns.
Sounds cheap to me.
Schedule for Dec. 10:
- Brkfst: Tell parents about surprise noontime event
- 10 am: Rehearse for award ceremony
- Noon: Get married
- 4:30 pm: Receive medal from the King
- 7:00 pm: Go to dinner with my new wife, our families, and 1,200 others
We have an economic crisis because it is not safe for people to work or consume.
Our Congress just passed a bill that will spend $2.2 trillion to deal with the crisis.
Can anyone identify any spending in this bill devoted to making it safe for people to work and consume?
The Most Important Policy Decision In Our Lifetimes
In a week dominated by horrible news, there are signs that the Senate may make the right choice when it passes a new response to the pandemic in July: 0/18
This is madness.
C.D.C. Now Says People Without Covid-19 Symptoms Do Not Need Testing
Why does leadershop at the CDC provide no explanation?
Why did they refer questions about the change to HHS?
Are they now just puppets?
6. When someone tells you that “we could never test that many people,” ask “ok, so your plan is to stand by and do nothing as asymptomatic spreaders kill their colleagues?”
Fox viewers seem unhappy about my reminder this morning that deaths from the pandemic are like:
- another 9-11 attack on NYC every three days
- another Titanic disaster every day and a half
Close for my Nobel lecture:
“And remember, there is a reason we call it the enlightenment.
“So yes, let there be light. Let there be light in daily life. But let there be light too in our spirits and our souls."
The amazing thing is how little money it takes to do something like this that will have such an enormous value to society.
The “social” rate of return on the money that the NBA spent will be enormous.
The world is so bleak, we don't celebrate good news enough, but this is super cool:
The NBA funded a COVID-19 test that's much less invasive, much less expensive, and just as effective.
Any decent government would now produce billions of these.
7. Note that people at Broad Institute say “Given the low cost and scalability of next-generation sequencing, we believe that this method can be affordably scaled to analyze millions of samples per day using existing sequencing infrastructure.”
Reason to be cheerful!
The Biden team is putting together a plan for fighting the pandemic and for opening schools that makes good sense.
Such a welcome change.
5. Universities with credibility (including Stanford and Cornell) are simply ignoring the CDC and adopting testing programs that screen everyone on campus frequently: 5/18
One of the things I've learned about policy work is that one has to be patient and poised to act.
Even if an argument is logically coherent and consistent with the facts, one has to watch and wait for an opening when people are receptive and able to understand it.
1/N
11. When you strip away all the noise and nonsense, note that once we cover essential workers, its easy test everyone in the US once every two weeks. Just do it. Isloate anyone who tests positlve.
.
@EricTopol
and
@ashishkjha
The Lancet critique of boosters says decision "should be evidence-based and consider the benefits and risks for individuals and society"
But it contains not even one sentence claiming that risks exceed benefits.
1/n
A tax on targeted ad revenue would force big tech companies to change the business models that are hurting our democracy, writes Paul Romer, a Nobel-winning economist
Bottlenecks
The more I look into this, the more cases I see where the short-run scarcities and bottlenecks are the result of an FDA approval process for tests that is very specific about inputs — use these specific RNA extraction kits sold by these firms; these specific swabs...
Why the stimulus bill is not enough.
We have a very long way to go to get back to where the labor market was at the end of Clinton's term.
Notice, btw, the good performance after Clinton raised taxes and the weak / nonexistent effect of the Bush and Trump tax cuts.
People who want schools to open have good intentions, but this does not give them license to mischaracterize the evidence.
Children do contribute to the spread of SARS-CoV-2
Saying they don’t is just as bad as saying that masks do not work
We need open schools w frequent tests
My paper on
#COVID19
, children, and schools is now published, with new material added.
"We can no longer afford to overlook the role children play in transmission if we hope to contain the virus."
Precautions must be put in place in schools.
#auspol
13. Check in on the folks who will still be arguing about how to implement some kinda sorta obligatory tracking system.
Ask them how they are doing with getting the members of QAnon comfortable with their scheme.
Ubiquitous testing is not like Kennedy’s moonshot.
It is like Eisenhower’s Interstate Highway System, proposed at a time when we already knew how to build roads.
Now, as then, we just need to go big.
2. Offer the same type of test, which can identify asymptomatic spreaders, to every patrol officer who rides with a colleague. Offer the entire department the option of testing at the start of each shift.
@Allname50801953
@realChrisBrunet
Bullshit. EJR is a sewer full of cowards, snowflakes, and trolls. There is no such thing as anonymous science.
By the way, which are you?
From
@DrLeanaWen
The vaccine rollout is giving me flashbacks to the administration’s testing debacle.
… Instead of admitting that there wasn’t enough testing, administration officials followed a playbook to confuse and obfuscate
Univ. of Illinois UC has about 57 thousand students and staff.
It looks like they are testing about 70 thousand people per week, hence testing everyone roughly once a week.
If we extend this to the US as a whole, this would mean testing about 50 million people per day.
1/N
Re announcement today from World Bank
Perhaps it is more clear now why I encouraged the new World Bank President back in 2019 to outsource its entire research function.
"Diplomacy and science cannot both thrive under the same roof."
Implication of the very clear analysis by
@nataliexdean
and
@CT_Bergstrom
:
If we let the virus spread but limit the death rate to the peak of 2500 per day from in Apr:
=> 400 days of carnage to past the million deaths before getting to herd immunity
12. Check your math.
Surprise, R0 < 1.
Pandemic is on glide path to 0.
No new outbreaks.
No need for any more shutdowns.
Let everyone go back to normal.
Very cool that Bob Wilson got the prize along with one of his students — a first AFAIK.
Bob’s track record in mentoring prize winning PhD students at the Stanford Business School is unprecented.
- Al Roth
- Bengt Holmstrom
- and today, Paul Milgrom.
COVID-19 test should be like a latte.
- Get them each morning
- Less than $10
- Available at drive-through
We shrank computers bigger than a room to fit in your pocket. If we try, we can vastly improve testing. Probably for less than $850 billion.
#test
=latte
Roche announced “results within 4 hours.”
Cepheid announced “results within 45 minutes.”
Nagasaki University and Canon unit are now saying “results within 10 minutes.”
It’s only been a few days and we are already getting close to the time it takes to prepare a latte!
If you don’t believe that the FDA is willing and able to shut down someone who tries to do tests for SARS-CoV-2, read the accounts of its actions in the last 5 months:
In US, those who have never had covid-19 have prob of infection of about 0.2% per day.
For previosly infected, the prob of reinfection is less than 0.000002% per day.
To stop the spread of the virus, the priority is to vaccinate first those who have not yet been infected.
Pay careful attention to the point that the author makes about the problems they are running into in Singapore.
If *they* can’t keep R0 less than one with modest testing + aggressive contact tracing, nobody can.
Ubiquitous testing is the only way out.
Ignore the noise! We are making progress.
- Many voices demand testing.
- Congress has responded with the first $25 billion.
- Next, pust to spend as much on testing as we do on soda: $45-50 billion per year.
Rest of this thread: the existing voices. Add yours!
Perhaps it is also easier to understand why I decided to get myself fired as Chief Economist rather than to keep working in a position where I reported to Kristalina Georgieva:
If you isolate those who test positive, even a really bad test will slow the spread of a pandemic.
And when I say bad, I mean bad — an 80% false negative rate
Me on Fox News: Why $100 billion on virus testing would be money well spent.
Isolating the few who are infectious is the only way to solve both the health and economics crises that cost us $500 billion, yes $500 billion, in lost output each month.
If you think that there is no evidence that a strategy of test and isolate can work, check out today’s numbers for the Univ. of Illinois Urbana-Champaign.
That is not a typo: 7-day positivity rate of 0.36%.
Compare with WY where it now exceeds 50%.
9. When “REAGENTS FOR RNA EXTRACTION!” say that we can test for the virus without using the RNA extraction kits that were mandated as part of the original FDA approval of RT-PCR tests.
See papers in the last few days on bioRxiv describng work arounds to reagent shortage.
"You have to have the reimbursement system pay a little bit extra for 24 hours, pay the normal fee for 48 hours, and pay nothing [if it isn’t done by then]. And they will fix it overnight.”
@BillGates
gets it exactly right on how to fix paymt for tests.
Effective graphic for convincing any doubters that covid-19 is way different from and way worse than the flu; or heart disease; or cancer; or accidents; or chronic lung disease; or stroke; or …
Re “test everyone every two weeks”
“That’s not going to happen” is intellectual cowardice.
If you think it is not worth making it happen, just say so and explain why.
If the people who ran the NBA can understand a simple cost-benefit calculation, why do so many others seem not to?
My quote below in
@bzcohen
’s strory in the WSJ:
I am a big believer in talking to people from other disciplines. To illustrate, I’ll tell a story about a brief coinversation with
@CT_Bergstrom
that was literally one of the of high points of my entire career.
1/N
CDC says that it “does not recommend entry testing of all returning students, faculty, and staff.”
Response from Cornell: Your recommendation is indefensible.
We did the math.
If you support a policy that requires highly skilled strong government to pull it off; and if Singapore can’t make it work; might be time to consider alternatives.
My father (12 years governor of Colorado, 6 years superintendent of LA Unified School District) and I (founder of a company that did remote education and student of economic growth, human capital, and knowledge) make a plea:
Let’s open schools that can actually teach students
What I find breathtaking is the assertion that Walensky is doing a worse job of communicating the steps the nation has to take.
Her statements have been far more honest almost everything her predecessor, Giroir, even Fauci have said.
But hey, she's not one of the guys.
6/6
"When the history of the coronavirus crisis is written, the absence of a national testing strategy to better slow the virus’s spread while speeding the reopening of the economy and schools may go down as the biggest government failure."
@GeraldFSeib
18. With the type of pooled surveillance testing that Cornell is adopting, this nation can reopen schools safely and get all children back into the learning environment that works -- a real classroom. 18/18
Someone in China understands how valuable it is to find and isolate hundreds of infectious individuals in a city who could be the source of the next outbreak.
Note that they are using pooling to scale up the capacity to test.
@EricTopol
@ashishkjha
The paper is yet another embarrassment.
It is advocacy that pretends to be science.
It discredits everyone who tries to uphold the standards of scientific integrity.
12/n
More than infuriated, I’m dumbfounded. What are the "reasonable people" thinking? In denial about the horror of default options?
- Give up fight against virus: 1 million deaths over more than a year
- Hang on and muddle through: catastrophe worse than Great Depression
10. When people say that we have to have an elaborate system for tracing contacts before we can move forward, point out that the CDC is saying we do not have to bother testing essential workers who are known contacts so shortage of contacts is not the problem we face.
.
@mattyglesias
offers a terrific overview of 7 sensible responses to the pandemic.
- They are complementary.
- Every one offers benefits far greater than cost — probably by factor of more than 100.
- We should be doing all of them.
Faster growth gives negative bias to naive estimate of omicron severity. Using recent rates of growth from
@trvrb
and
@twenseleers
, the bias is by an order of magnitude.
This graph gives a qualitative explanation. Blog post calculates the numbers.
14. Universities can pay for surveillance testing, but K12 schools, facing budget cuts and layoffs, cannot reopen as Stanford Medical Center did or as Cornell will unless the Feds provide the funding for the tests. 14/18
6. Cornell:
"Our modeling shows that this testing must be done early and often ... [but] testing every student is impractical and cost-prohibitive. An essential part of an effective screening strategy, then, is pooled testing ... "
6/18
"To safely reopen closed businesses and revive American social life, we need to perform many more tests—and focus them on the people most likely to spread COVID-19, not sick patients," Ezekiel J. Emanuel and
@paulmromer
write:
"How to Prevent a Coronavirus Depression: If we keep up our current strategy, our economy will die.”
By Alan Garber (MD, Ph.D. economist, and Provost at Harvard) and me.
It is strikiing how much of his reputation for journalistic integrity
@DouthatNYT
was willing to trade away for a chance to claim that Trump’s pandemic response was mediocre. 1/N
Sounds to me a lot like the question of whether I can say that I will not be hit by a meteor this afternoon.
I do say things like this when I am trying to communicate clear on urgent issues.
If you want the pedantry police to lock me up, give them a call.
5/6
@nataliexdean
@CT_Bergstrom
"Unless you’ve got a credible, understandable way to make the fear go away, we will not get the recovery we need.”
Giving up on containing the virus is going to make the fear worse for a long time.
1. The Feds are moving past denial:
"Asked why the administration’s stance has changed now, Dr. Fauci referred to the alarming rise in infections nationwide. 'Obviously, things are not going in the right direction,' he said." 1/18
quotes wo source from
15. If K12 schools do not have the funds to implement a program of surveillance testing that keeps infected teachers and students out of the classroom, they will follow the CDC guidance, and keep relying on remote learning programs. 15/18
.
@brucetempleton
You asked: What if the new mutation is 70% more infectious?
We should do what we should have done from the beginning — test and isolate.
1/3
Where is the outcry from the scientists at the FDA and the CDC over the corruption of their agencies?
Being a scientist is like being a pilot. Usually, an easy job. But during an emergency, you need every bit of courage, integrity and analytical capacity you can muster.
3. Contact tracing is not working:
'Dr. Fauci acknowledged that the country was not adequately isolating people. But, he added, above a certain level of infection, “the core paradigm of identification, isolation and contact tracing just doesn’t work.”' 3/18
The very first point I tried to make about testing, way back in March, was that using a sensitivity far lower than 95% to isolate some people who are infectious would slow the spread of the virus. So this is very good news.
Breaking: Abbott just announced they have been given emergency use authorization for a rapid antigen test. They say: 15 minutes. 5 dollars. Greater than 95% sensitivity and no machine or lab required, adding they have the ability to make 50 million tests per month by October.
S Korean officials understood:
1. Possibly inaccurate test = bad
2. No test = worse
From Reuters: "South Korea took a risk, releasing briskly vetted tests, then circling back later to spot check their effectiveness."
The Public Should Ignore Both Skepticism About Testing in Wuhan and Recommendations for Repeated Lockdowns; and Scientists Should Take Care
A thread that will lead to this ...
1/