Last year I went from $19k in my bank account to selling my company for $200M+
Then came what I call "The Champagne Problem Cycle":
- Existential Crisis
- Cocaine energy
- 19 gas stations
- A move to Puerto Rico
Here's exactly what happens when you get rich 👇
10 years ago today
@aaronsw
took his own life after overly aggressive prosecution.
He invented internet infrastructure.
He defeated the greatest threat the Internet had ever seen.
And you probably don't know who he is.
You should.
Here’s his story 🧵
How bad will the recession be?
After analyzing revenue data from 27.2k companies: it's worse than we thought.
- B2B getting hit hardest since '08
- Consumer $$ tanking
What should you do?
- 6 ways to not lose in recessions
- 4 ways companies win in them
Thread time 🧵
My favorite tool I learned hunting targets at the NSA:
"Journey of a Dollar" analysis.
Basically, when analyzing an industry the first step is mapping how a dollar flows through it.
I map out:
- Who touches the $
- How many they touch
- How long they sit
From this I'm able to
Our Twitter subscriptions plan needs work
@elonmusk
.
I did a pricing study on 54.3k Twitter users to help you Doge Father.
TLDR:
- Verification should cost much less
- Twitter Blue should cost much more
- Twitter has a unique opportunity to 10x subscribers
Thread time 🧵
I've hired 133 people.
Sold millions in software.
0 funding.
Want to know what holds your company back from being high performers?
You treat your team like children.
Let me explain. 🧵
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
Aaron believed research and public records should be free.
Here’s the preamble to his Open Access Manifesto
You probably don’t realize:
- 98% of scientific research is behind a paywall
- ~80% of legal records too
“Patrick, why would that be a problem?”
Let me explain.
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
@FreeLawProject
Aaron was charged with 13 felonies carrying up to 50 years in prison.
JSTOR asked for the charges to be dropped.
MIT asked for the charges to be dropped.
But US Attorney Carmen Ortiz kept going.
Aaron refused plea deals and due to harsh prison time threats took his own life.
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
@FreeLawProject
After his death, Ortiz conceded that she didn’t have enough to show Aaron acted for personal gain (big piece for the charges), nor evidence to support the harshest penalties.
Prosecutors want to win.
I guess lack of evidence doesn’t stop empty threats for a plea.
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
@FreeLawProject
@lessig
Anyways.
Just remember people like aaron exist.
You don’t have to agree with what he did. Just know his ideals are important.
We should all try to be more like the best of him.
I leave you with a poem from the founder of the internet
@timberners_lee
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
@FreeLawProject
Lawrence
@lessig
sums it up best:
“Somehow, we need to get beyond the ‘I’m right so I’m right to nuke you’ ethic that dominates our time.
That begins with one word: Shame.
One word, and endless tears.”
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
@FreeLawProject
@lessig
Aaron wasn’t perfect.
He wasn’t the only person involved in these movements.
But I can’t hold back all the tears when I think of his death.
He’s the one person I’ve met who was the complete embodiment of truth and openness.
10 years ago today
@aaronsw
took his own life after overly aggressive prosecution.
He invented internet infrastructure.
He defeated the greatest threat the Internet had ever seen.
And you probably don't know who he is.
You should.
Here’s his story 🧵
@aaronsw
Aaron lead a life that makes you insecure for binging HBO and YouTube shorts.
- At 14 he helped invent RSS.
- He dropped out of Stanford
- Joined
@paulg
's first
@ycombinator
class
- Early team at Reddit
And these aren’t even his big accolades.
We’ll get to those.
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
Imagine you're poor and get arrested.
Did you know that accessing court records for your case costs money?
They’re in the public record.
They’re “owned” by the taxpayers.
But you have to pay for them.
Guess you’ll just go to jail.
This is where Aaron dug in.
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
@FreeLawProject
@lessig
In an era where truth has jumped from that which frees us to a four-letter word to an amorphous concept, we need more of the pursuit of truth, not less.
It’s not a weapon.
It’s not a liability.
It’s not binary.
It’s progress; and progress shouldn’t be closed.
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
Aaron believed in the Open Internet.
“Patrick, isn’t the internet always open?”
No.
Some people out there want:
- more corporate control
- tighter govt regulations
- a lot more censorship
Aaron was extreme in the other direction.
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
@FreeLawProject
In a truly amazing response, Aaron and crew organized hundreds of websites to go completely dark for a day.
You couldn't access Wiki, Reddit, Craigslist.
Even Google blacked out their homepage.
Thankfully, we won.
But then came the fight that ended Aaron’s life.
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
Imagine you’re the scientist key to unlocking an energy breakthrough.
You’re a smarty.
But you need to read a bunch of research.
Well, that research costs $40
*per paper*
You probably can’t afford that, so no free energy.
Here’s an even worse scenario…
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
After cashing out from Reddit’s sale, Aaron set his sights on PACER.
PACER's a big ol' database of US court records.
It’s not supposed to make money, but somehow makes $100M+ per year.
Thankfully, Aaron and a group of hacktivists found a hole in the system...
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
PACER was "free" to access at 17 libraries in the US.
All the group needed to do was write a handy Perl script on a thumb drive and plug it in.
They downloaded 2.7M documents and set them free.
When Sacramento library racked up $1.5M in charges, the FBI got involved.
I think "lean startup" and the "MVP" did more harm than good.
Ship sooner, talk to your customers, etc - all good advice.
But most end up shipping a piece of crap and going "there's no market 😱"
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
Thankfully, since access was free and no one was profiting, no felony occurred.
PACER still charges, but a lot of pressure and orgs like
@FreeLawProject
lead to much cheaper access.
This was just Aaron's warm-up though.
Next came the biggest war in the history of the Internet.
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
@FreeLawProject
Aaron set his sights on releasing the largest academic database out there:
JSTOR
He created a script for mass downloading and hid it on a computer in an MIT storage closet.
He downloaded millions of papers over months.
MIT and JSTOR couldn't catch him.
Then came the Feds.
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
@FreeLawProject
In 2012 Congress put forward a bill to combat piracy (SOPA/PIPA)
The bill appeared to be a Trojan horse for the govt to take down any website without warning.
All for "copyright protection".
Certain companies loved this.
Open internet advocates went to war.
@aaronsw
@paulg
@ycombinator
@FreeLawProject
MIT and JSTOR obviously didn’t intend for open campus access to be used this way.
But MIT has a hacker culture and acts of rebellion are commonplace.
Aaron got caught though.
US prosecutors took a liking to the case and pushed forward with prosecution.
Recession looms. What should you do?
Lots of generic advice past month.
Ran an analysis on 23.2k subscription and SaaS companies, and here’s what I found.
Things will mostly be fine, but two data points are pretty scary (especially in consumer and soon B2B).
Let's ride 👇
@gregisenberg
Unsure if just clickbait, but this isn't SaaS dying, this is SaaS exploding.
The SaaS community has been talking about this exact pricing shift for over a decade. There are even reports on this very topic published annually (some by yours truly)! :)
Let me explain a bit 👇
If your friend has a company:
1. Buy the product
2. Don't ask for a discount
3. Write a review/testimonial
4. Give them feedback and churn if it's not valuable.
Being a friend is 1, 2, and 3. Being a great friend is all four.
The past 10 years I made companies $2.4 billion by fixing one piece of their business:
Their pricing.
Why'd they need me?
Because even the smartest people don't know how their pricing strategy should change over time.
So here's the exact pricing path to follow for growth 👇
Sold a company for $200M+
Graduated 1st in college
Won a national title in debate
Am I bottling confidence?
Nope.
I'm *incredibly* insecure.
Just like a lot of you (and your teams).
Here's the framework I use to turn that insecurity into fuel.
It's called SCOREBOARD 🧵
Are we in a recession?
Doesn't matter, because...
Your customers THINK they're in one.
Here's data from 18.3k customers showing how buyer behavior changed almost instantly.
READ: You should be changing your landing pages and email copy immediately.
🧵
Sold
@ProfitWell
for $200M+ and the most common question I'm asked:
How much $ did you get? 💰
Since you were bootstrapped, did the
@ProfitWell
team get equity? 📈
Here's the answer and how it’s all
@andrewmason
’s fault (yea - the Groupon and work folk music icon)
👇
How bad will this year be for your business?
After analyzing data from 33.6k companies - not good, but there's hope:
- B2B on an uptick, but not why you think
- Consumer $$ still tanking
What should you do?
- 5 ways to not lose
- 3 ways to win
Thread time 🧵
I built the pricing for 400+ companies, unlocking $2 billion+ in additional revenue.
There's one add-on high-growth companies sell that you don't.
You can implement it in 48 hours without any code:
Paid off our house yesterday. 🏡
Took us 2.25 years.
Wasn't the best financial decision.
Best emotional decision to date though.
Here's some context for other startup folks on why we did this 👇
Saturday two Ukrainian founders called me terrified.
We're flying them out.
If you're a company in the region and need help, read below.
If you're not and want to help, here's what we're doing, why, and how you can get involved.
👇
AI.
No one's asking the right question:
"How much do customers *actually* care that your product has "AI"?"
I wanted to know, so I collected data from 2.4k customers.
Here are the surprising results 👇
My first job I hunted targets at the NSA.
They gave me:
- Tools to analyze anything
- Tools I couldn't get anywhere else
- Tools I used to build a company that sold for over $200M
Here are the 4 tools I now use for analyzing any market, company, or opportunity like a spy 👇
I've spoken to 437 founders.
Studied data from 37k more.
Sold a company for over $200M.
One crucial piece tends to separate companies growing rapidly from those being held back.
It's often overlooked.
Here's the framework. 🧵
Hidden secret I used to build
@profitwell
and sell for $200M+ with no experience:
Reading.
Seriously.
Most of us suck at reading.
We waste so much time and effort.
So here’s my system 🧵
An MBA startup just asked me to sign an NDA for me to help them with their pricing for their product that doesn't exist (something I do for free).
Ok, I think that's my limit.
For the first time in history, I am not taking the call.
We hired 133 people.
Had 68k users.
0 funding.
Even then - I did every final interview for new hires.
No matter the role.
It was the single greatest use of my time, because it protected our team from a mistake you're likely making.
Here's what I did in these interviews 🧵
3. Servant leadership
If I'm your manager, I serve YOU.
You tell me when you need me.
My job is to get out of the way and remove blockers you're facing.
You're an adult.
We aligned on the goal and plan.
Now I help when you need me.
That's trust.
Discounting is a cancer on your growth.
"But our sales team says they can't hit their numbers without them!?"
Lies.
Here's data on how they hurt you more than help (and what to do instead).
A quick 🧵
Our Twitter subscriptions plan needs work
@elonmusk
.
I did a pricing study on 54.3k Twitter users to help you Doge Father.
TLDR:
- Verification should cost much less
- Twitter Blue should cost much more
- Twitter has a unique opportunity to 10x subscribers
Thread time 🧵
Turned 35 this week.
My life's had wins:
- Sold a company for $200M+
- National debate title
- Found a full time boo
And losses:
- PTSD
- Cancer and health
- Social ineptitude
Lots of reflections.
Here's 35 somewhat controversial beliefs that got me through the years 👇
The more screentime users spend looking at a post, whether text, pic or video, the more it is boosted.
Video posted natively to this platform will be boosted more than an external link, because way more time is spent watching a video than clicking on a link.
Lot of hot takes on
@fast
from people who’ve never built anything.
Most folks who have who aren’t Twitter personalities are silent.
Why?
Because we know how hard it is even if we agree with the hot takes.
1. Default to truth.
If it's not HR info, I share.
How they're doing.
How the company is doing.
How I'm doing.
Where we suck.
You hired them literally for their brain since we're not digging ditches.
If you can't trust their judgment, you shouldn't have hired them.
We fear public speaking more than death.
I used to too.
But then I won a national championship in debate.
The secret?
I learned HOW to speak using speaking frameworks.
Here's the one I used to win the title and to sell tens of millions in software.
It's called NEPC 🧵
4. Delegate decision making
You hire someone.
Pay them a ton.
They think about a problem 100x more than you.
Then you make the decision?
High performers want the ball.
Give it to them.
Doesn't matter if they're junior (make decisions smaller)
Give room to succeed (and fail).
You probably don't remember the last recession - it's been 14 years!
Here's how the best survive:
1 Attack costs
2 Shore up customers
3 Accelerate cross-sell
4 Nuke current segments
5 Retool geographies
6 Slash discounts (ironic, I know)
Let's walk through how they do each 👇
Most of you don't trust your team.
"PC I trust my team?!"
Then why do you:
1. Withhold information
2. Create policies for everything
3. Block progress to "check-in"
4. Hoard decision making
That's not trust.
Here's what you should be doing 👇
We bootstrapped a team to a $200M+ exit.
One thing almost ruined it all - my autism.
I had to work harder than most at communicating (and continue to fail a lot), but I found a good hack:
Asking the right questions.
Here are 9 questions I use to be a better manager.
🧵
Documentary we filmed selling
@profitwell
to
@paddlehq
for over $200M is LIVE 🎥
Check out the trailer and if you reply I'll DM the full version to you. 💪
I've completely crumbled meetings by asking:
1. Who's the decision maker?
2. When are they making a decision by?
3. What does good look like?
You should always know these answers.
If not, all energy should go to finding them before moving forward.
Something we're not ready for:
The cost to get a customer through sales and marketing is up: 108.9%!
And it's going to get worse.
Because:
- We've had no new marketing channels since 2016
- So everyone floods them
- And AI will flood them more
But here's how I'd avoid this:
This isn't what I normally post, but it's a summary of some morning reflections since Monday is the anniversary of
@aaronsw
's death.
He had a big impact on the world (and me). He's someone you should know.
Here's a tribute.
The "lean startup" and the "MVP" did more harm than good.
Yes:
- Iterate
- Ship sooner
- Talk to customers
BUT
Most end up shipping a piece of crap and going "there's no market 😱"
Down 50.2 pounds in past 44 days.
I'd like to thank mustard, seaweed, and egg whites.
Oh, and
@nivasravi
,
@hnshah
, and
@danmartell
for the inspiration and help. 💪
Me in the first year: We need to write blog posts, build landing pages, schedule webinars, build this feature, strategerize a grand plan, AND hire 12 people.
Met today: Let's send an email and see if 10 people are willing to get on the phone.
Today’s the 6th anniversary of
@PriceIntel
(now
@ProfitWell
). We’ve come a long way since the 18 hour days of me just sitting in a room alone and getting help from
@markitecht
and
@aaronwhite
. Here are some lessons I’ve learned that reinforce or buck conventions. 1/
Well, back to the lab.
Hope this was helpful. It's one guy's opinion after experiencing it and talking to others.
Reply if you want me to go deeper on anything.
Retweet this bad boy for me, too.
Last year I went from $19k in my bank account to selling my company for $200M+
Then came what I call "The Champagne Problem Cycle":
- Existential Crisis
- Cocaine energy
- 19 gas stations
- A move to Puerto Rico
Here's exactly what happens when you get rich 👇
I asked 64 executives, 29 millionaires, and 6 billionaires about AI.
One thing's clear - *everyone* is nervous.
They don't know:
- What AI disrupts
- Who AI disrupts
- How long disruption'll take
So I collected data from 11.2k consumers.
Here's what scared the crap out of me:
Spent two days analyzing financial data from 33.6k software and tech companies.
We're seeing a clear turn in the market "recession".
Here's what I found and a framework for what to do now.
A 🧵
My best tool to create content that made over $20M:
"Emotional Resonance" maps
When you script an ad, webinar, or sales pitch map how the viewer should feel as they watch it.
Emotional humans buy so much more, so your flat content's losing you money.
Here's how this works...
Discovered an interesting data finding on pricing strategy I've coined "The Amex Effect".
It answers where you should price for maximum conversion for consumer and bottoms up B2B.
Also explains why your credit card bill is higher than you thought.
Here's the data/findings👇
Fun fact: In this pic my pants were split throughout the inseam/crotch and I had to sew them weekly for months because I couldn't afford new ones.
It's from our first press done by
@KyleAlspach
.
Thanks for the love
@tibo_maker
. 🙏
In 2012, this guy quit everything to start his own company.
In 2022, his company was acquired for $200M.
He captured an entire market by giving away software for FREE while making profits & 100% bootstrapped.
The unknown story of Patrick Campbell & Profitwell 🧵
Moderna’s vaccine is such an east coast tech company flex.
Not only 94.5% effective and can be stored in a regular refrigerator, but I’m sure the design and branding is terrible and east coast VCs didn’t fund it until it showed traction.
This tweet’s audience: 13 people.
Have some *very* promising (and positive) data on the B2B SaaS market. Don't worry. There's some negative, too.
Not great for consumer SaaS and ecommerce subscription.
Publishing Monday.
Reply with any questions and I'll try and pull more. Able to study 35k+ companies.
Turned 34 today.
Still feel I haven't done enough and don't have enough time to do all I want to do.
Had a fantastic weekend with folks on the same wavelength who all love the game.
Big ups to
@benmlevy
and
@ShaanVP
for organizing.
Here's to the next 34.
Right now you should:
- Publish more content
- Host more webinars
- Plan in-person events
- Building out a community
You'll convert more customers now, but you'll also be the brand prospects remember as helpful when ready to buy.
Plant seeds now. Harvest later.
Bud Light sponsored a trans influencer and then lost $20B due to boycotts.
Those folks are bigots, right?
Actually - 89% aren’t boycotting because of trans rights.
This has been bothering me, so I collected data from 4.1k people.
I uncovered a pretty big mistake👇
2. Minimize policies
Want to lose top performers?
Tell them "do this" and "don't do that".
Instead do: unlimited vacation and pick your holidays.
You know your energy.
You know your religion.
You know your family.
Getting results?
Great.
Take time when you need.
Life's better when you constantly assume you could be wrong.
You learn more.
Resent less.
And attract smart people.
Being wrong says nothing about you as a person.
Not being able to admit it does.