The Idea Lab - An Idea Generation Platform!
It's already been a year since we launched our product as the 'Technical Traders Room' and we've learned so much along the way!
We've been listening closely to your feedback, and have decided to make some tweaks and rebrand our
Oxygen cylinders arrived at CommonWealth Games COVID Centre yesterday... no patients.Please help the public to aware that .Hardly anyone knows about this place.
Nifty50 RSI at 80. Sell Everything and Run Away
Did you all get this Forward/Post of how
#Nifty
of how 80 RSI was followed by a Correction !!
A Thread.
Small PSU Banks & Yes Bank - Future multibaggers or just a frenzy?
One will think that it is the best time for PSU bank investors given the recent rally in psu banking stocks!!
Is it really the best time? Let’s find out !!
#yesbank
#psubanks
#multibagger
#frenzy
#TweetStorm
-
#LTCG
Tax on Equity - Taxing Genuine Investors to get a best case 3000-5000 cr of Tax Revenue and losing 15 lakh crore Market Cap but not catching and penalizing Tax Evaders/Money Launderers does not seem Morally or Revenue Right.
#Tweetstorm
.
By God’s grace, blessings from friends and family & super support from the doctor's - Mom, Dadi & Dad recovered in home isolation. All the three had taken their 1st dose of the vaccine. Get vaccinated, wear masks & stay safe. Best Wishes and Prayers for All.
10 Most Interesting Videos on the CFA Society India Channel.
Take your time and go through them. Would recommend attending the physical events too.
@CFASocietyIndia
Lot of companies listed recently have been on a steady run. There may be a lot of reasons to justify the rally fundamentally in some - Good Business, Good Promoters, New Business, Technology , Good sector , Scale etc. But one common theme is High Insti Holding and Low Float.
"I am extremely happy to announce that I've partnered with smallcase to help change the Investing Scene in India, one step at a time. Excited, Intrigued and Fascinated to see where this new journey takes me!
You can find my smallcases here -
@smallcasehq
Smallcap Index–What is a Shakeout , Correction & Crash.
What is a Shakeout
Generally a less than 10% correction in less than 10-20 session.
A quick 3-4 day drop where Index falls by 5-10% and a lot of stocks correct by 15-25% in Smallcaps.
Tough to execute stoplosses.
A quick
Smallcap Index–What is a Shakeout , Correction & Crash. What is the Setup Now–Sunday Thoughts ? .. A long post with lots of charts from the last 15 years of corrections in Smallcaps. Must read !!
#ADANIPORTS
- PreCovid Highs of 425-450. Todays low in that band.
#AmbujaCements
Russia-Ukraine crisis low zone of 280-315. Todays 315. Both these names indicate a possible bottom done and that makes the broader market and other stocks more interesting.
Key Insights from Anil Kumar Goel - A Thread
1. Valuation Process: -
Focuses on estimating a company's value through its underlying assets rather than solely relying on future cash flows. Emphasizes the significance of dividend growth as an indicator of underlying company
When people tell me markets are
#volatile
- I tell them to check 2005-2010 charts. The best bull run 2005-2007 had 4 dips of 12-15% and one 30%. The best bear market 2008 had 3-4 bounces of 15-20%.. its been pretty calm relatively.
#FIIs
sold 48800 cr in 5 sessions.
0.5-0.7% of total holding value of fiis in India.
0.1 % of indias market cap
Down 5-6% in 5 days.
Does this flow qualify to be part of this image
@ravidharamshi77
?
The breadth keeps getting worse. All
#NSE
stocks. 2008 was global , 2011-2013 was global + local , 2019 looks only local. Total lack of buyers in the broader market.
#YeWaqtGuzarJayega
ya hum
#Guzarjayenge
?
#Shakeout
and Corrections are tough.
#Smallcap
Index down 5-6% in last 4 sessions. Stocks down 20-25%. Time to go ahead and accumulate if you have the temperament to see another 10% down quickly.
#Suzlon
is a classic example of
#Retail
considering it a Penny Stock
It has a
#MarketCap
of 32k cr.
3M India 30000 Rs or Honeywell Auto at 40000 Rs have a market cap near 30-35k cr.
No View on the Stocks above.
#SEBI
- Profit Loss Analysis of
#Individuals
in
#Derivatives
Total Traders = 1.13 cr
93% of
#individuals
made losses.
Total Loss = 1.8 lakh crores.
Transaction Cost = 50k cr
Only 1% of Traders managed to earn more than 1 lakh!!
A THREAD
Why do
#FIIs
matter?
In
#Nifty50
they own 25% of the Market Cap. 43% of the Float.
What is changing is that
#FIIs
own 18.4% of the Total Market and
#DIIs
own 14.4%. This is getting closer every year!
Monthly
#SIP
inflow at 13000 cr ( been writing about it for last many years). 1.5 lakh + cr a year. 0.5% of India's Market Cap. More than
#LIC
( 50-70kcr ) +
#EPFO
( 30-50kcr) combined. Today almost 30% of
#MF
equity AUM is SIP. Now comparable to
#FII
flows.
#WowFacts
Expect the next 1-3 years could be better for Microcaps/Smallcaps/Midcaps compared to last 3 years. This Video might be a Good Watch - How to Trade Smallcaps and Midcaps using Technical Analysis - Nooresh Merani .
#Protip
After a big correction the next rally is generally led by New Names.
In 2021 - Digital,Pharma, Covid, IT sectors topped.
In 2021-2023 - Capital Goods, Manufacturing, PSE took leadership.
Going forward you need to avoid current outperformers and look for new trends.
Been Negative on the
#IT
sector for last many months now. Large Cap
#IT
names like
#INFOSYS
#TCS
etc no more a short but over the next few weeks can make a bottom it seems. Still not convinced on
#Midcap
#Smallcap
IT bottoming but no more Negative. Will watch for panic lows.
Top Books On Investing by Indian Authors.
Very few books on Investing by Indian Authors.
What do you think is the reason for that ?
But whatever is written is quite to the point and a delight to read.
A big thanks to the authors of these books.
My Favorite 5!
#Nifty50
- Corrections Post Covid Bottom.
The Upswings
3 rallies of +30%
Rest all 10-20%
The Dips
12 dips of more than -5%
5 dips of more than -10%
Corrections in a Bull Market must be lesser than the Rallies/Upswings
Who missed wanted 20% dips with 20% rallies !!!
Problem in a Bull Market is a lot of BS logic works. Most of the stocks I made money in 2007 got rogered some delisted. All Thematic
#education
,
#landbank
#resources
. Luckily as a techie sold on the way down. What you own and how much u cashout is what matters ! So start
The Weekend MBA in Investing – Analyse India Learning Series.
If you are interested in learning about investing we have curated a 14 post series on the best available resources in the Indian context.
Take your time and read it.
#Smallcap
&
#Midcaps
fall by 3-5% & Maine Bola Tha Ghirega :) from all of us. But what next for Smallcaps?
Reply with Choice
1) Shakeout = 5-10% fall.
2) Correction = 10-25% fall.
3) Crash = 20-70% fall.
Check post for reference
#DidyouKnow
-
#IndianOverseasBank
promoter shareholding ( President of India ) is 96.38%.
#LIC
owns 1.21% and. 2-2.4% of Equity is the available float of the company. Same is the case with other
#SmallPSUBanks
which have gone up 50-100% in last few weeks.
Future of
#Nifty50
#Banking
on Banks–Free Detailed Presentation
1) What Moves the Nifty 50 ?
2) Nifty at 15550 but Bank Nifty at 12500.
3) Technical Charts for All Banks
4) The Big Picture – India Story Baaki Hai
Will it be a
1) V shape reversal or
2) A consolidation with new lows with positive divergence or
3) Sideways consolidation
is a tough call to take now.
But the oversold conditions make it a good risk-reward zone for entry into smallcaps.
Accumulate over the next few
Curious case of
#Yesbank
.10 cr shares sold of
#ranakapoor
. Total delivered qty of 14.44 cr out of 80.89 cr shares.Tower research capital markets india pvt ltd day traded 10.18 cr i.e 25% of total volumes. Who is this tower ? Can retail buy 350 cr of
#yesbank
in a day? Who bot ?
Nifty at 11000 . Smallcap indices at an equivalent of 9700-9200. Not a time to panic. If fully invested just be patient. If not invested go ahead and shop if u can digest some pain.
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79% of stocks are down more than 50%
70% of stocks are down more than 60%
56% of stocks are down more than 70% This is 2018-2020. 87% of stocks were down more than 50%.
79% of stocks were down more than 60%
60% of stocks were down more than 70%. This was 2008. !!
Whoa 30k Followers. Jan 3rd week has always been a milestone month. Quit the Job to go full time in Jan 2007. A year later saw Jan 2008 - One big drawdown and an important lesson !! Thanks
#BSESmallcap
Index in 2005-2008
For all those who think Smallcap is in madness.
Just compare it to 2007 and you know the definition of Insanity :)
There was a 40% drop in 2006 which nobody remembers now.
People only remember 2008.
NobodyKnows.
#Trends
#MarketCycles
“Do takka vyaj mein kaun paisa banayega? (Who can make money after paying 2% per month as interest) He then patted my arm and said something I’ve never forgotten, “Market mein koi investor nahin hota. Sab bhav ke khiladi hain” - Manubhai Manek
A nice line by Atul Suri in the discussion yesterday at Traders Carnival. A lot of investors in
#PMS
and
#AIFs
want - Smallcap Returns and Drawdowns of Large Caps - It cant work that way !!
Share your largest portfolio allocation rather than 5-10-20-30
#diwalipicks
on mahurat day :)
#skininthegame
for me its
#SinclairsHotels
. Do your own research on any stock pick on this thread by other also. Did this exercise in 2015 -
Ambanization & Concentration of
#Nifty50
continues -
#RelianceInds
is now 14.9% of
#Nifty
. Concentration Top 2= 24.57% , Top 3= 32.19% , Top 5 = 44.02 %. Reliance weight higher than the last 23 names added together. Would you like a
#PF
that concentrated ?
Over the years have spoken on quite a few forums on Price Volumes Breakout where 10x Volumes and 10% uptick is generally a strong indication - Recent - ... Just created a screener which can be checked daily for free - Keep checkin
Nifty IT–No more the time to be Bearish. Bottom here or another 10-15% Lower ?
Outperformance is gone.
Only prob is it's not a Contra Trade. A lot many people are stuck or Hopeful.
Time to be not Bearish and be ready to be opportunistic on Reversal
The Weekend MBA in Investing – Analyse India Learning Series. If you are interested in learning about investing we have curated a 14 post series on the best available resources in the Indian context. Do add if something is missing.
#Sectors
on Radar
Disclosure – Biased & Invested in some of them. Relative Strength & Outperformance.
1) Agri and AgroChemicals
2) Textiles
3) Oil and Gas
4) Logistics
5) Insurance
6) Pharma
Hated but on Radar.
1) Large Cap Banks
2) Diagnostics
3) Media
#Rotation
#TweetStorm
- Expensive or deserves to be Expensive ? 1)One thumb rule for screening expensive companies is Market Cap to Sales or Enterprise Value to Sales. A 10x or more is generally expensive unless the company can grow sales rapidly or has extremely high Net Profit Margins.
#ProTip
Everytime there is a Shakeoff or a big 2-5% DownTick on
#Smallcaps
.
Start Focusing on
#Stocks
that are first to cross that day's highs.
A lot of outperformers going forward come from this basket.
#RelativeStrength