Interested in Financial Markets, Macro, Politics and Economics. Want to revive the hobby of drawing cartoons. *Views are mine alone, don’t reflect my employers*
Latur shows the way for Marathwada farmers - Business Line
Grow less rice, wheat and sugar cane.
Grow Papaya, Pomegranate, chillis, custard apple which need less water.
RIP Anshu Jain.
He broke the glass ceiling and he is the reason lot of Indians joined sales and trading roles in global investment banks.
While I never worked in DB, the guy who hired me in Merrill Lynch out of campus was ex DB, and rated Indians highly …
Only in India can someone sell 6 trillion worth of assets to deliver on a 5 trillion economy promise &
“Bhakts be like Modiji ne kiya hai toh soch samajh ke hi kiya hoga 😭😭😭”
Lot of people are calling for a closing of stock markets too.
I think its a terrible idea in an emerging market like India.
These are my thoughts why ... 🧵
I have one Darshan Hiranandani anecdote.
My dad is a small construction contractor, making some construction equipment. He was doing some project for Hiranandani developers - and was elated after my 10th standard results - gave sweets to all workers on that construction site
Auto driver says - Google Pay kar do .., and I said Google pay nahi hai
He says - kaise Aadmi ho, padhe likhe ho, international terminal se aaye ho aur Google pay nahi 🤷🏽♂️
This payment system is really awesome.
(My cab ride stories too)
India currently imports 55 per cent of its edible oil.
Becoming self-sufficient in producing edible oil will help India attain food security and save the country thousands of crores that it spends on importing it.
My mother is a Sikh, my biological father was a Muslim, my adopted father—a Hindu. In all official documents, my religion status stays blank. Does religion determine I am an Indian? It never did and I hope it never does.
#OneIndia
#India
Why isn’t US taking about what’s going on in India?
- largest manufacturing of
#Vaccines
- peaceful elections - let it be municipal or state
- large infrastructure push building expressways and railway freight corridors
- stood upto China in Ladakh and peace pact with Pak
Toshiba to manufacture Lithium Titanium Oxide batteries in Sujuzi plant in Gujarat.
These things will be a game changer in battery technology and electric vehicles in India.
Landed in Mumbai airport at 230am.
Saw Uber and Pre paid taxi booking would take time. So took an auto rickshaw from public stand.
When I reach home realised my india wallet doesn’t have enough ₹₹₹
Called home and parents don’t pick up.
…
@JiayangFan
In HK your hierarchy
- westerner (White) > British/American/Canadian Chinese > Cantonese speaking HK > mainlander > Indians / South Asians > African origin people ...
White / Yellow / Brown / Black ...
Sadly Maharashtra is lagging behind in the land acquisition for the
#WDFC
which gives opportunity for
#Mundra
#Kandla
#Piapavav
ports to get more business and industrialisation shifts to Gujarat
India has 30 states.
Some will have higher unemployment than average.
Some will have lower unemployment than average.
That's how averages work.
For any statistical indicator.
Opposing the biggest infra project which paved the way for progress in 2 states and provided drinking water in arid regions, generated electricity for many.
This is classic case of vocal minority opposing the eminent domain.
Gains were far dispersed and huge.
This was me around 21-22. Went for Rally for the Valley, to the Narmada valley MP, to protest against the displacement due to the Sardar Sarovar Dam & for rights of tribals/villagers. There were foreigners, students, activists, filmmakers whatnot. Can’t imagine now
#DishaRavi
That’s it … my son got … 93.67%
Anyways Mr Hiranandani Senior was pleasantly shocked (not a lot of construction contractors have kids who study too hard) …
That whole expression of shock my dad conveyed to many family members and friends …
Singapore did away with loud speakers and added a radio channel. Those who want to hear can keep the radio channel on 🤷🏽♂️
Or an app on phone - which is linked at the time?
I actually met some one - a Malaysian Chinese economist who went to the IMF seminar in DC and he came back to Singapore singing praises about India.
Different people see things through different biases?
It was evident during my 2 days at the World Bank that India no longer commands the respect it once did as a beacon of hope for democracy & secularism around the world. We must work to change this. India has enough fundamental strengths to regain that global standing.
This thread seriously triggered me.
Since it feels like my dads story. Only small difference. His situation was worse.
My granddad worked as cashier in Scindia Steam Navigation. Grandmom was a home maker.
They had 4 kids - and lived in a 2 room flat. (One was a kitchen) …
Of course I’ll be accused of elitism & pseudo-intellectual sneering, but can it be mere coincidence that the less people read, the lower literacy & social development they enjoy & the more they practice untouchability, the more they are inclined to vote for the BJP!?
@ajay43
It’s because Savarkar wrote about first Indian war of of independence 1857.
This written account immortalised it - instead of being called ‘Sepoy Mutiny’
Go deeper into the context. Don’t let your hate for some one blind you against the facts.
Abhijit Bannerjee has done research on poverty and experimental economics.
RBI sets monetary policy, and regulator for banks.
Different fields.
A civil engineer with 30 years construction experience can’t run a refinery.
A chemical engineer wouldn’t work in tunneling
@sanjeevsanyal
I really feel india might have had the same complacency in 11th and 12th centuries.
Our universities got destroyed by book burners and internal divisions were exploited for a millennium
Pakistani Father.
Sikh Indian mother.
English (paternal) grand mom.
Born in UK.
English passport.
US green card.
American husband.
When was this guy mainstream in India anyways?
Obviously was living in an elite bubble.
My piece in this month’s
@TheAtlantic
: “It was game over for my sort of person in India. We had been so blithe, so unknowing, so insulated from a wider Indian reality that it was as if we had prepared the conditions for our own destruction”
Economy is slowing, so tax collections are lower.
#IRS
officers say raise taxes which will slow economy more putting it in a death spiral
There is a serious flaw in training of bureaucrats who have no clue of how real world works.
India is an entitlement society instead of a producer society.
It takes money to build scale, to do things faster (diseconomy of scale, cost of faster production)
Poonawala, Krishna Ella (of Bharat Biotech), Dr Reddy’s (mfg of Sputnik) and Zydus Cadilla need to be thanked
We need to be grateful to Serum Institute of India and Bharat Biotech. The curse of the nation is some wanting everything to be free and consider commerce a dirty word.
@muglikar_
This one has land acquisition issues.
It’s very much needed - and will increase business in the Mumbai - Surat - Ahmedabad corridor.
Mumbai needs to develop radially
- north to Surat
- north east to Nasik
- south east to Pune (already done)
- south to Konkan
Ravi Mattoo at Lehman was IIMA and then did a PhD in US and got a lot of IIM students in fixed income research in NY …
But Anshu Jain - got Indians in trading, sales and structuring.
In 2006 we grads were called the Indian Mafia in London … we were Anshu’s boys (and girls)
Niranjan Hiranandani was present, and he asked my dad - how much did your kid get - and if you saw my dad - you would think … small businessman, might not appear sophisticated - in a condenscending manner.
He boasted his son Darshan got 88% in ICSE … my dad coolly replied…
Actually I disagree with the author on a few points.
Few reasons I am bullish about India (no I don’t think it’s a super power or next China ... but a better India) ... a 🧵
This is the most personal thing I’ve ever written. A lot of you won’t share my pessimism. That’s fine. I, too, swing between blinding hope and crushing despair. But how about a “behind-the-scenes”? A short thread to set the context for this long piece?
Anshu was the co CEO of Deutsche Bank and pushed a boring commercial bank to a powerhouse in fixed income - especially in derivatives business.
A generation or two of Indians in finance owe it to him.
He is the giant whose shoulders we all have stood on.
@deepakshenoy
No - 90% effectiveness means 90% will get immunity with one shot.
Which means only 10% are vulnerable if exposed.
Given 90% are immune the probability of transmission drops massively. (Add to that masks, social distancing, washing hands and rapid testing)
This is massive
Today is April 14, 2020.
Let me tell you the story of something interesting happened on April 14th, 1944 at about 4pm in Bombay ...
Its a first hand story, told to me by my Grandfather who was on the scene at Victoria Dock (also known as Princess Dock) Bombay ... 1/n
I believe in multiple Goddesses
Till 25 worshipped Saraswati,
Since then worshipping Lakshmi ...
There might be multiple universes, multiple dimensions ... then why 1 God?
Believe in plurality
Purvanchal Expressway looks great!
Someday...we will see a eway like this between Pune - Kolhapur...all the way to Bengaluru...?
I guess, the economic impact of the Pune - Bengaluru corridor must be orders of magnitude higher than the Purvanchal area.
3. Countries which have done this earlier - Pakistan in 2008 - when it opened few months later opened 50% lower.
Philippines shut for a day - it opened 24% lower with just 2 days later.
Finance and Markets is a confidence story. Lose it, tough to gain back
3. Take a loan. Pay it off after you start earning.
If your degree can’t help you pay a loan, then it’s just a vacation abroad and socialising with others and having a fun time.
Why should others pay for it 🤷🏽♂️
I am just amused at all these requests for donations for doing masters abroad.
1. You are a graduate. Work for two-three years, earn and self-finance.
2. Earn a full scholarship.
If you can't do 1 or 2, you don't deserve that course.
With 40 odd unicorns - Indians are doing well in india too.
It’s a question of some small % who are at the top anyways. (Not every indian American is a CEO)
10. Reduced trading hours, tighter circuit breakers, more time out once a circuit breaker is hit could be done.
Most important is confidence.
That’s what’s needed.
This takedown by liberal elites … makes one infuriated even more.
He has done more wealth creation for himself and his employees vs liberals who have ‘sinecures’ as jobs in ‘journalism, bureaucracy and academia’ without taking much risk …
And laughing on poor plebs
People don’t travel to India due to
- perception about safety (of women in particular)
- cleanliness
- internal transport infra
Haven’t met someone who said - visa fee is low, let’s travel to India.
Incredible India gets a boost: With GST on hotels reduced from 28% to 18% & from 18% to 12% & visa fee reduced to $25 & $10 for off season , all bottlenecks for travel & tourism industry have been removed. It’s now for the industry to deliver big time on growth & jobs.
- Namaskar, Primeiro Ministro
@narendramodi
- O Brasil sente-se honrado em ter um grande parceiro para superar um obstáculo global. Obrigado por nos auxiliar com as exportações de vacinas da Índia para o Brasil.
- Dhanyavaad! धनयवाद
🤦🏽♂️
Anyways I am a migrant too.
Left Mumbai for Ahmedabad for an MBA. Got a job in London, then Dubai, then Singapore ...
#MainBhiMigrant
Please pity me - I too am like the poor daily wagers walking from Bangalore/Mumbai to UP
@mavericksurya13
@Parody_acounts
India has capacity constraint.
Need more airports, more flights, more hotel permits.
Need better land acquisition laws, better labour laws … and frictionless travel.
This flip flopping each time government changes makes us a banana republic.
Reduces international credibility and this uncertainty causes cost over runs -> pushes contractors to default on banks, which need to be bailed out.
Political vendetta at what cost?
I see the storm coming -
1) Bullet Train Project shelved
(Crores down the drain)
2) Metro 3 if depot relocated at BKC, Atleast 2-3 years of delay
3) GMLR will not see daylight
4) Line 2B, 4 & 6 will look half baked
5) Line 8,9,10,11,12& 13 will never go on ground
6) Back to 90's
My personal interaction with him was only one networking event, and I shook hands with him for like 10 seconds.
But he was a great cricket fanatic, astute businessman, visionary and a leader.
Condolences to his family and all people whose careers he helped shape.
How much does it cost to roll a barrel of oil?
May WTI futures are $14.5/bbl.
June WTI at $23.5/bbl
60% of cost of a barrel is to roll it a month
No one wants delivery now.
Demand is down 40% and storage tanks are full
Cheapest place to store oil?
Inside the well.
#OOTT
RBI bought gold at a lower price.
Smart time to take some profit?
In its reserves - there are hard currency (USD, EUR, JPY) assets like government bonds and Gold.
With price rise in Gold the allocation has increased - so sensible to sell some and rebalance?
In 1992 December there were riots around where I lived in Mumbai.
1993 there were bomb blasts in the city. Some people who died were acquaintances of my parents.
2005 bomb blast in a train.
2008 Mumbai attack ...
Dear Hindus,
Were you ever denied a rental application because you were a vegetarian? Was your family lynched because you were Upper Caste? Has your place of worship ever been destroyed IN YOUR LIFETIME? Has it ever happened personally TO YOU? How, exactly, are you under attack?
I just realised
@AatishTaseer
is like a representative of all minorities in India
- Muslim father (and an English grandmom who was Christian before marriage)
- Sikh mother
- married to a American white guy
How many circles intersecting in the Venn Diagram?
NRIs didn’t get in due to diversity. Most of them got in through masters program in STEM degrees.
Next set of people got in through L1 visas in Indian tech companies.
3rd set went as blue collar working in 7-11 and gas stations.
No where were there diversity quota
The diversity rhetoric in the US has lubricated the advancement of NRIs- w/o noticing how homogeneous the growth Indian diaspora has been limited to upper caste immigrants.
So many of them are selfish/conservative & hateful who need to be called out every single time.
Wheat Sugar and Rice takes up a lot of ground water.
We grow enough, and need a nudge to even substitute in our diet with local cereals / millets.
Reduce MSP for WSR, increase for Bajra/Jowar/Ragi
And nudge people to eat healthier.
Diabetes is also endemic.
#IndianEcon
The Wheat-Sugar-Rice (
#WSR
) economy and the polices used for 6 decades to promote & protect it, have reached a complete
#DeadEnd
. A paradigm shift in Policy & institutions is necessary to empower farmers & provide critical
#Public
(& Quadi-Public)
#Goods
to Farmers.
If you look at the ODI and T20 series ... the commentator Sanjay Manjrekar didn’t want Jadeja and Hardik Pandya in the team.
Shows you how much out of touch he is with cricket ... since 1989 ...
#cricket
#AUSvIND
1. India has a large % of Foreigners (FPI or Foreign Portfolio Investors) invested in the market.
India depends on foreigners buying its asset to fund for its net imports.
If they cant sell, it creates a red flag and will be dropped from Stock Benchmarks like MSCI
Apple market cap is ‘Stock’
GDP is ‘flow’ (output per year)
Comparable metric might
Apple more valuable than top 50 indian stocks (NIFTY)
Or apple sales vs India GDP …
So Apple is now bigger than India. Apple - $3 trillion. India - $2.7 trillion. Hope this shames those in bureaucracy who beat down growth efforts with a poverty schtick.These are not either/or. Growth sectors can & must be allowed to grow freely as poverty alleviation continues
Bengal was prosperous due to agriculture and agri industry.
Also it had ports connecting it to outside world and rivers connecting to hinterland.
Bengal doesn’t have one technology firm - and no new age companies today.
Can name one startup into unicorn from WB?
Actually - Sabarmati water front was a mess - slums, mucky mud roads ...
that walk is beautiful.
Why is Anish Kapoor or Amitav Ghosh’s opinion about Bimal Patel’s capability more important than awards which he has - Aga Khan award for architecture?
The architect who's redesigned New Delhi's Central Vista "has destroyed the city of Ahmedabad by cementing over the banks of the Sabarmati river that runs through it, he is in the process of ruining Varanasi..." Must read piece by the great Anish Kapoor.
None of them are bigots.
All of them studied hard - my dad started his own business, (was a Gold medalist in Electrical Engineering) his one sister is a CA and other two siblings are all actively working in their 60s
Bangladeshi can get an employment visa legally. (Subject to minimum salary laws)
Bangladeshi can setup a firm subsidiary in India.
If he wants citizenship can get it by naturalisation.
Was true pre CAA.
Just like Satya wasn’t an illegal immigrant in the US
Asked Microsoft CEO
@satyanadella
about India's new Citizenship Act. "I think what is happening is sad... It's just bad.... I would love to see a Bangladeshi immigrant who comes to India and creates the next unicorn in India or becomes the next CEO of Infosys" cc
@PranavDixit
5. Why Care about foreign investors?
Well if they cant sell Nifty - they will sell Nifty Futures on SGX and even short sell the currency (INR) offshore using NDF (non deliverable forwards)
Very few own stocks in India, but all will be hit by higher inflation with weaker ccy
And yes - my dad studied in Gujarati Medium … in Mumbai
His lack of speaking English - despite being a top ranker - couldn’t get him a job in Siemens or L&T or Telco …
Forced him to join ECE (a birla company) which he quit in a year and half to start his own business.
2. If there is no good news between closing of the market and reopening - the market just gaps down lower. This actually increases the Volatility and 'Value At Risk' - this VaR shock makes people believe that its riskier and hence invest less in India
How much CO2 emissions does a metro save per year. And how much does a delay cost?
How much are 2000 trees worth and if they are planted elsewhere how would it work?
Join us at
#ConnectKaro
for a session with
@AUThackeray
where we explore his vision for a climate-forward Mumbai, and the role of climate leadership in India to help cities catalyze action on
#climatechange
mitigation and adaptation.
#CK2021
Register:
@promila_agarwal
My parents don’t leave any opportunities. (My sister is bigger academic achiever than me fyi)
Don’t think my dad got many Hiranandani projects later. More with Lodha builders …
That story some other day
7. If india's financial markets keep functioning effeciently through the cycle - impact will be lower and actually the positive news will make next boom bigger.