Bitcoin could be about to embark on some explosive growth.
We are entering "Uptober" and it's no meme. Not only is it historically a green month, but there are a number of bullish catalysts & factors.
Check this out 👇
Sell in May & go away...
Over the past 5 years:
- Buying BTC in October & selling in April had 1,449% cumulative returns.
- However, buying in May & selling in September had -29%
Will we see the same this year? Let's dig in 👇
Long term Bitcoin holders are aggressively buying!
Over the past 2 months, long term holders have accumulated more BTC than in any other period in the past 3 years.
Someone knows something...
This Bitcoin indicator is flashing!
And it's only happened 2 times in its history. On both occasions, BTC rallied by over 775% in less than a year...
So, will it happen again?
Let's dive in 👇
So, let me get this straight...
In the past week:
- Trump speaks at Bitcoin conference, promises a strategic reserve
- Harris is reaching out to crypto industry to "reset"
- Ethereum ETFs launch
- Fed confirms September pivot
- Goldman CEO predicts BTC to rival gold
- SEC drops
800 Billion Euros.
That was the size of the biggest money laundering scandal in history. All done through a single Estonian branch of Danske bank.
How many of the bankers were sent to prison for the scandal?
Zero.
HSBC was for years the "preferred financial institution" for
Controversial opinion: People should be allowed to yolo on memecoins to their heart's content.
Buying lottery tickets is completely legal even though your chances of hitting the lucky number on the mega millions is considerably smaller than making a milly on a memecoin
Everyone is focused on US based Bitcoin ETFs.
But, this week could see batch approvals of a bunch of spot ETFs in Hong Kong.
This is significant for a number of reasons 🧵
He says he hates Bitcoin and wants the government to outlaw it.
But his firm was lobbying to be an AP for the ETFs.
He says that Bitcoin is "worthless" and akin to a "pet rock"
But his firm has actively been buying BTC ETF shares.
Completely full of💩
Things have changed in crypto.
The past week has brought about some very important realisations. Some things will not work anymore.
Here are 3 of the biggest realisations so far 👇
ETH has now completely given up all gains since the ETF announcement.
In other words, it's trading as if the market doesn't expect a single ETH to be bought by ETF issuers.
Ask yourself if that makes sense...
Tuesday is a big day for Bitcoin ETFs...
That's because the Hong Kong ETF products will start trading. Many are focused on the flows they could or could not bring.
However, there is something much more significant about them 🧵
Friday is going to be a BIG day for Bitcoin.
Over $4.7bn worth of options will be expiring. Most of the notional exposure is to bullish Call options with strikes over $70k.
The "max pain" price is $65k. This is the price at which most options will expire worthless.
Option
So, in less than a week we have got the news that:
- People in Dubai can get their salaries paid in crypto
- Tether is launching a Dirham AED stablecoin
Connect the dots. It's a straight line to crypto adoption 🇦🇪
Consider that we have just seen one of the largest supply onslaughts from Mt Gox & the German / US governments.
Billions of dollars of BTC consistently dumped onto the market in the generally low liquidity summer months.
And yet, we are still just below $60k.
In a few months,
It seems as if there is a global outage with several IT systems down. Airlines, banks, emergency responders & media outlets.
But
#Bitcoin
keeps working.
Block by Block.
Serious question: What responsibility does the SEC take for destroying the 3rd biggest stablecoin with their false accusations?
They destroyed competition in the stablecoin space. Less competition directly impacts on retail investors. These are the cohorts they claim to help.
If a tree falls in the woods & no one hears it, did it really happen?
If your portfolio is down today and you didn't check it, is it really down?
If you aren't actively day trading, there is no reason to fixate on its volatility.
Schrödinger's portfolio theory.
Everyone is wondering why the SEC is going after legitimate crypto companies and completely ignoring the scammers, rugpullers & memecoin pump n dumpers.
That's because "investor protection" is the last thing they care about.
They take on these cases because:
1. It's easier
$SOL to $1,300??
The Grayscale GSOL trust is trading near all time highs & at 7x the NAV.
These institutional buyers are willing to gain $SOL exposure at an implied price of over $1,300
This could potentially be rocket fuel for
#Bitcoin
ETF demand.
It could expand the addressable market for these products to a market with $34 trillion in AuM.
Let's dig in 👇
What's going on with BTC?!
It's almost 2 days from the halving and prices are still muted.
Are we due a late rally? Or will it go lower?
Let's take a look 🧵
There are currently 74 Ethereum Layer 2s & there are 82 in the pipeline.
There are also 21 Layer 3 projects.
Who asked for all of this?
And where are they going to find the demand to fill their blocks?
So, the Harris campaign is looking to "reset" on crypto and engage with the industry.
But, over the past week we have learned:
- The Fed is clamping down on crypto banks
- The SEC has been subpoenaing crypto VC firms
- Liz Warren urging CFTC to clamp down on election betting
-
Rug pulling others in crypto must be one of the dumbest moves ever - irrespective of how much you make.
Even if you were a complete sociopath with no conscience & zero empathy for your victims, it's massively -EV from a life utility perspective.
The blockchain is immutable.
I got that dreaded email that every crypto user runs the risk of receiving.
The email that came out of the blue and left me feeling powerless.
Here's a cautionary tale about a risk that we run by working in this industry - and further proof about why we need crypto 🧵
Controversial Opinion: Some of the hottest coins from the last cycle will never recover their previous all-time-highs.
And, if you are waiting for alt season to save underwater bags, you will be disappointed.
Alt season will be a rising tide, but it won't lift all boats.
Some bullish news that may have been filtered out:
- Treasury buybacks with $46bn in liquidity started
- BOJ pausing rate hikes
- FTX to pay out $12bn cash to crypto natives
- Mt. Gox creditors seem to be hodling
- ETH ETF inflows this week net positive
Glass half full 😉
ETH has painted the most ungodly of God candles ever.
Bulls are trampling bears like the run of Pamplona.
So, are we on our way to Vitalik's Valhalla? 👇
This month will make or break you...
September has historically been a bad month for Bitcoin and apathy is beginning to settle in in the crypto market.
But, here’s why things could be about to turn 👇
Take note:
- 30% loss needs 42% gain to break even
- 50% loss needs 100% gain to break even
- 70% loss needs 233% gain to break even
- 80% loss needs 400% gain to break even
Often the most successful investors know when to cut losses just as well as when to take profit.
Gm.
So, they are going to put the Tornado Cash developer in jail for 6 years.
The main rationale for the charges is that criminals & state hackers used the open source code he wrote.
But one would also assume that these bad actors used computers with operating systems.
Are the
The next alt season won't be the tide that lifts all altcoin boats.
You need to be selective in your picks. Some will never recover their previous ATHs.
There's no way Biden vetoed that bill. He legitimately has never had a singular thought / comment on crypto.
His handlers probably gave him the pen and asked him to sign. Probably told him it was a bill promising him unlimited ice-cream.
Was just doing a bit of research to better understand Biden's initial anti-crypto stance.
The crazy thing though, is that I can't find any videos of him ever talking about it. The only tweet that he ever made was after the 2020 Twitter hack (screenshot).
Yes, the White House
My God, the sentiment on CT is so dogsh!t.
Based on that, one would think BTC was trading at multi-year lows - not 20% from all time highs.
When in doubt, zoom out.
If still in doubt, get out and touch grass.
Polkadot is sponsoring Inter Miami.
At least having Messi wear the Polkadot logo is considerably better than spending $400k on an animated CMC logo.
So, that' s a W
Forget the post-halving
#Bitcoin
supply shock.
The supply shock is already here!
180k BTC accumulated by ETFs far outpaces the $55k BTC that has been mined 🤯
There are too many alt Layer 1s. Too many Layer 2s. Too many infra plays. Too many blockchain games. Too many RWA tokens. Too many memecoins.
Just too many tokens.
A preponderance of projects all vying for a pool of capital that isn't growing nearly as fast.
This is interesting 👀
The balance of $BTC & $ETH on exchanges is at a 4 year low.
This as we move towards the eventual ETH ETF approvals. Supply shock incoming?
Either way, prepare for some volatility
While most are focused on the halving as the most important factor for
#Bitcoin
supply, there is another metric which you should be watching.
A metric that could help indicate cycle tops 👇
Goldman Sachs Stacks Sats!
GS just declared a $500m Bitcoin ETF position in a recent filing.
Last week, Europe's 4th biggest Hedge Fund also declared a $500m position.
The institutional accumulation continues. Bullish.
So, the DOJ seems dead set on pursuing charges against CZ and is looking for a 3 year prison sentence.
However, they were more than happy to drop the campaign finance violations in the SBF trial.
I wonder why 🤔
The only investors that the SEC is “protecting” by going after Uniswap are the investors who own stocks in US banks.
Decentralised competition against the TradFi monopoly isn’t good for their share prices
So, the Republicans have gone full on into a pro-crypto stance.
And the Democrats are starting an outreach to the community to win us back.
Can someone please check on Miss Liz.
When you think about it, there are plenty of politicians that were once anti-crypto that have shifted to a more pro-crypto stance.
However, you don't see it happening the other way around.
Over time, this is incredibly bullish - irrespective of ups & downs of regulation.
There's a potential crypto catalyst that isn't being factored in.
One that could see crypto natives getting $14bn in fiat to potentially invest in crypto.
Let's dive in 🧵
Bitcoin ETFs had a record week of inflows with $1.8bn. But, why is the price going nowhere?
Well, here's an interesting theory....
Could it be an expansion of the cash & carry trade? i.e., large funds are shorting futures and buying spot through the ETFs.
Given that this is a
It's been a little over a month since our SUI review vid. Got some hate at the time for covering it.
But, always going to cover interesting projects despite what some may think.
🚨New Video Alert!🚨
Sui's rally is turning heads—driven by a surprising DeFi factor.
Could another pump be coming in September?
Get all the details in our latest video!
Tbh, think the markets have overreacted to FOMC.
Today we had further numbers:
- Lower PPI numbers (2.2% vs. 2.5% expected)
- Higher jobless claims
"Data dependent" Fed getting reasonable Macro data.
Chill out - things will bounce back.
May is a BIG month for token unlocks...
Over $3bn worth of tokens are being unlocked.
No one wants to be someone else's exit liquidity.
So, it's really important to note these dates and adjust accordingly 👇
Another reason why the next altseason may not be as big as the last: No stimmy money.
In fact, all the pandemic savings have been completely depleted and gone into deficit.
Yes, a pivot will help but don't expect the 2021 altseason.
This is a BIG risk for Bitcoin!
And it could come soon...
That's the imminent transfer of the Mt Gox coins. Over $9 billion in BTC could soon be hitting the market.
So, will they sell? Let's dig in 👇
Institutional demand for $SOL investment products is crazy!
The Grayscale Solana Trust (GSOL) trades at $433.
However, according to their Feb factsheet, each share holds about 0.377 SOL.
This implies a 5.8x premium over spot (price of $1,148) 🤯
Absolutely mindblowing how quickly the market has repriced the chance of a 50bps cut in September...
- 1 Month ago: 5.5%
- 1 Week ago: 11.4%
- 1 Day ago: 74%
- Today: 99.5%
In fact, rate swaps are now pricing in a 60% chance of a 25bps cut in the next week!!
ETH to $22k?!
That's VanEck's price prediction by 2030.
But, that's only their base case. They have a bull case of $154k!!
But, it's their analysis which has the real alpha. When those ETFs launch, this is what investors should focus on 🧵
Will we see an Altcoin season as crazy as we did in the 2021 cycle?
While some alts are making mad gains, the chances of the wide & deep altseason of previous cycles is less likely.
Here's a few reasons why 👇
Imagine studying at an Ivy League school to get a job at a Tier 1 Wall street trading firm only to have a college dropout trading memecoins make more in a week than you make in a year.
Crazy times.
Bitcoin could be about to turn - and quick!
Per K33, 30 day average perp funding rate has gone negative.
This has only happened 6 times before. In all of those cases, BTC was up 90 days later. Average 90 day returns were 79%.
Is $100k at the end of the year still in play?
Finally, it's pressing example of why we must resist CBDCs in all of their forms.
While being debanked by a single bank is a pain, being shut out of the system entirely by a capricious central bank is a death knell.
Long live a decentralised future 🚀
Yesterday we had the largest outflows from Grayscale's $GBTC product yet. This led to a net outflow of $154m from the ETFs which led to some of the
#Bitcoin
selloff.
The Coin Bureau has invested in a number of exciting projects which will be launching their main nets soon.
I'll go through some of these now and will add to this thread later as we get closer to other launches.
So, bookmark this tweet 👇
Bill Gates founded Microsoft but only holds about 1.3% of the shares. He used to own 45% but decided to diversify into other assets (on Buffet's advice).
Steve Ballmer hodled most of his shares and still holds 4.2%.
Soon, he could be overtaking his old boss' net worth.