Nathaniel Sher @nathaniel_sher Twitter profile

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Nathaniel Sher

3 months

In this article for @ChinaBriefJT , I document China’s strategy to enter the international aviation market with Comac's new single-aisle commercial aircraft, the C919 🧵

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

9 months

This may be the first time a prominent US official endorsed Xi's principles for the bilateral relationship, translating them as "respect," "mutuality" and "benefit for the commonwealth." Wang Yi lifts his hands at 1:15 in apparent gratification

Hua Chunying 华春莹

@SpokespersonCHN

9 months

▶ President Xi hopes the U.S. will work with China in the same direction.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

China's Foreign Ministry just published the results of its study session on "Xi Jinping thought on diplomacy" 习近平外交思想 as part of the ongoing "themed education" campaign to unify the Party's "thinking, unify its will and unify its actions." Highlights below🧵:

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

2 months

Based on Rhodium's estimates of BYD's cost structure, the provisional 17% CV duty (€3,568) added to the existing 10% tariff (€2,099) would leave BYD with EU profits of €9,397 per vehicle, still more than 7x the profit per vehicle in China

Jordan Schneider

@jordanschnyc

2 months

"up to 38%"? amateurs

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Alastair Iain Johnston's essay on "China in a World of Orders: Rethinking Compliance and Challenge in Beijing's International Relations" is one of the most incisive on the subject of China's support/challenge to international order:

Van Jackson

@RealVanJackson

1 year

“China not seeking to overturn US led intl order because there’s no such thing—order is plural and functionally differentiated. China supports most forms of existing order”

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

“My hope is that we can move to a phase in our relationship where senior-level diplomacy is simply taken as a natural element of managing one of the world’s most consequential bilateral relationships.” Here are all the readouts from Yellen’s successful 4-day visit to Beijing! 🧵

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

4 months

US vs China readouts: Joe Biden’s Call with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Why won’t China's military officials talk to the US? It’s not only about sanctions on China’s Defense Minister. The controversy starts with the fact that China wants to lead with high-level strategic dialogues, while the US wants to lead w/ conflict prevention/management. 🧵

Dennis Wilder偉德寧

@dennisw5

1 year

I do feel I need to ask the question. If the US Secretary of Defense was under sanctions from the Chinese, would he accept a request for a meeting with the MND?

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

4 months

China's excess capacity may be bad for profits and prices, but it's an advantage in strategic competition. China’s defense industrial capacity already exceeds the US’ in many areas and the gap is only growing, even as its economy slows down.

China’s Economic Slowdown is Strengthening its Defense Industrial Base

As Beijing deprioritizes the real estate sector, it is doubling down on investment in science, technology, and national defense.

nationalinterest.org

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Is Biden "going soft" on China? In the last month alone the admin: - Fast tracked $500 million in arms for Taiwan - Sanctioned 7 Chinese firms for fentanyl smuggling - Sanctioned 5 entities involved in Iran’s missile program - Singled out China's "economic coercion" at the G7 🧵

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

This scoop on CIA Director Burns' secret visit to China in May is the latest evidence casting doubt on the narrative that there was a "freeze" in US-China diplomacy following the balloon incident on Feb. 4

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

3 months

Complete list of Biden's new tariff hikes from USTR

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

9 months

APEC hasn't even started and Xi is already rolling out the red carpet for Biden w/o any changes in US policy. CN reportedly agreed to: -buy 3 million tons of soybeans -unfreeze Max 737 orders -raise weekly flights to 70 -restrict fentanyl precursors -keep human-in-the-loop NC2

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

"Beijing announces industrial policy→enthusiastic provinces race to create their own sector X→local 'X companies' mushroom→intense competition leads to..thin margins[and less]R&D→then Beijing wants..consolidation of sector X" Great piece @ruihan_huang

Nanometers over GDP: Can Technocrat Leaders Improve China’s Industrial Policy? - MacroPolo

Space is the final frontier, it is also a revolving door in Chinese politics these days. Of the 205 full members of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) 20th Central Committee (CC), ten are aerospace...

macropolo.org

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

3 months

US vs China readouts: Here are all the readouts from Secretary Blinken's visit to China (4/24-4/26)🧵

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

In recent meetings, US and Chinese officials have repeatedly mentioned building on “the consensus reached in Bali.” Some of this "consensus" may feature into discussions when Blinken visits Beijing this weekend. So what happened in Bali and why is it important? 🧵

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

27% of Chinese government elites regarded the United States as an enemy in 2013, while only 2% of U.S. government elites regarded China as an enemy. @CarnegieEndow should bring back the "US-China Security Perceptions Survey." @Dalzell60

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

6 months

US vs. China readouts: Wang Yi meets with Sullivan

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

2 years

"Xi has not destroyed the capacity of the bureaucracy; rather, he has deliberately weakened its autonomy so that the bureaucracy will answer to him personally." How Resilient Is the CCP? by @yuenyuenang

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

9 months

China will tighten export controls on rare earths, requiring exporters to report rare-earth types and their export destinations, Beijing announced Tuesday.

China tightens rare-earth export curbs amid tension with U.S.

Traders required to provide information on types, shipment destinations

asia.nikkei.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

3 months

Nice to see my research cited in this @TheEconomist article on Putin's trip to China

The Economist

@TheEconomist

3 months

Vladimir Putin is meeting his big brother in Beijing. As the war rages in Ukraine, Russia’s leader wants to strengthen his “no-limits” partnership with Xi Jinping 👇

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Did Blinken’s trip to Beijing help bring the two sides “back to Bali?” Yes and no. While some deliverables were revived, the post-Beijing agenda is much slimmer than post-Bali. Let's take a look 🧵

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Well-known sociologist from Hong Kong, Liu Zhaojia, recently published a provocative article entitled, "Will America Decline Peacefully?" He argues the US "containment" policy toward China is rooted in insecurity about America's economy/politics/society

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

3 years

"The real estate sector may be the next to field a period of heightened regulatory scrutiny as Xi Jinping stated at the 19th Party Congress that 'housing is for living, not for speculation.'"

China Internet Regulations: Where We’ve Been and What’s Next - KraneShares

Subscribe to China Last Night, our daily note on China’s capital markets. During times of market volatility, we keep our readers informed on the latest updates from China Read our latest post...

kraneshares.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

4 months

Here are all the US and Chinese readouts from Secretary Yellen's visit to China 🧵

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

2 years

My debut article for @RStatecraft : "Why isn’t China going all out to help Russia in Ukraine?" Among the many important lessons of the crisis, one is that there remain limits to the China-Russia partnership. 🧵

Why isn't China going all out to help Russia in Ukraine?

It appears that Beijing and Moscow’s recently declared ‘no limits’ partnership has a few limits.

responsiblestatecraft.org

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

4 months

My latest on Biden and Xi's recent phone call: "Beneath the veneer of stability, the US-China relationship is arguably more precarious than at any point since the Biden administration entered office."

Joe Biden and Xi Jinping’s Unstable Rapprochement

No single flashpoint is undermining the U.S.-China relationship. Rather, relations suffer from a host of negative trends that are only worsening.

thediplomat.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

5 months

My latest on China's foreign policy after the Two Sessions. "Priorities include hardening the economy against global disruptions, deepening ties with the developing world, stabilizing ties with the West, and playing a larger role in regional crises."

China’s Foreign Policy After the ‘Two Sessions’

Beijing’s biggest goal is shaping an international environment that is conducive to economic development.

thediplomat.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

In this article for @ChinaBriefJT , I examine the “supply-side” factors behind RMB internationalization i.e. the Party's goals for the currency rather than its global demand. I question the narrative that Beijing seeks to make RMB a global reserve currency

Serving the Real Economy: From De-dollarization to RMB Internationalization? - Jamestown

Introduction In March, the yuan became the most widely used currency by China in cross-border payments, surpassing the U.S. dollar for the first time (Guancha, April 27). This rising usage of China’s...

jamestown.org

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

22 days

Thanks to @jordanschnyc for letting me write on VP Harris' record on China for ChinaTalk

Kamala on China

PredictIt has her at 15% … that’s worth some coverage of her foreign policy instincts, right?

www.chinatalk.media

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

3 months

For @CEIP_Politika , I dug into the data on China’s dual-use exports to Russia. It’s not a pretty picture. In 2023, China provided 89% (>$5 billion) of Russia's imports of products covered under the G7’s “high priority” export control list.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Even if China is upgrading its spy facilities in Cuba, Blinken should go to Beijing. A reciprocal response would involve U.S. intelligence tools. Shutting down diplomacy is not the right response. 🧵

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Rare symmetry in US and Chinese readouts: "The 2 sides conducted candid, constructive and fruitful communication..in accordance with the consensus reached..in Bali..China clarifies its solemn position on Taiwan and other major issues of principle."

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

2 months

Today China Customs released its April product-level data Exports of "high priority" dual-use products to Russia continue to decline, down from $313m in March to $287m in April (down 36% Y/Y) While telecoms exports increased M/M, semiconductors, machine tools, etc fell🧵

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

2 years

Is U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan consistent with the United States’ “one China” policy? Thread🧵 1/

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

“I can tell you based on the information that we have, that that is not accurate, that we are not aware of China and Cuba developing a new type of spy station," said Pentagon spokesperson Brigadier General Patrick Ryder.

Pentagon dismisses WSJ report on China spy station in Cuba

The Pentagon on Thursday dismissed a report in the Wall Street Journal about Chinese plans to set up an electronic eavesdropping facility in Cuba, saying it was not aware of any such effort and...

www.reuters.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

China had an entire decade to open its capital account without substantial outflows. Now would be the worst time to loosen further, as PBOC offers some of the lowest real rates among major economies. They could raise but not without additional/extreme pressure on property sector

Jonathan Cheng

@JChengWSJ

1 year

CEO of Russia's second largest bank to Reuters: "The time has come when China will gradually remove currency restrictions…China understands that they will not become world economic power Number 1 if they keep their yuan as a non-convertible currency."

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

- For Xi, the world has entered a period of “turmoil and change” 动荡变革 (not seen in 100 years) which presents “strategic opportunities, risks and challenges, and uncertain and unpredictable factors” to China’s development” 我国发展进入战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

This brings to mind the "inverted-U" relationship between competition and innovation. When markets are too consolidated, dominant firms lack incentives to innovate. But when markets are too fragmented, firms lack the scale/margins to invest in R&D.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

3 months

Xi Jinping described overcapacity as the 2nd major problem facing China's economy at the Central Economic Work Conference.. 主要是有效需求不足、部分行业产能过剩、社会预期偏弱、风险隐患仍然较多

Kelsey Broderick

@kelsbroderick

3 months

Did Yellen’s “overcapacity hurts you domestically” argument actually land?

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

3 months

This is a big departure from viewing Tesla sensors as a threat to national security (e.g. banning vehicles on government property). Perhaps Beijing doesn’t want to miss out on full-self driving in the way that it missed out on generative AI? Will Tesla be able to protect its IP?

Financial Times

@FT

3 months

Tesla’s tie-up with Baidu came as Elon Musk made a surprise visit to Beijing. The billionaire met China’s number two leader, Premier Li Qiang, as the US carmaker contended with declining sales and data security concerns

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

9 months

China's Office of National Narcotics Control issued a notice strengthening regulations on the production and export of fentanyl precursor chemicals and equipment.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

"Seoul has signalled it will not intervene to stop South Korean companies Samsung and SK Hynix from filling in a market gap after China imposed a ban on US chipmaker Micron, in an escalation of the tech battle between the superpowers."

South Korea signals its chipmakers can fill gap after China’s ban on Micron

Seoul says it is up to Samsung and SK Hynix to make ‘judgment’ on whether to expand their business

www.ft.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 month

Exclusive | China’s C919 jet noses closer to European certification: "The coming China trip follows a series of other high-profile interactions between the aviation regulators, held in spite of simmering tensions between Beijing and Brussels over EVs."

Exclusive | With planned visit from EU regulators, China’s C919 jet noses towards approval

In a step towards international certification for China’s C919 passenger jet, European officials will make a visit next month to get a closer look at the aircraft and its assembly.

www.scmp.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

11 months

Here are all the readouts from US Commerce Secretary Raimondo's visit to Beijing and Shanghai, August 27-30 🧵

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

New Qiushi article calls for "unswervingly stronger, better, and bigger" state-owned enterprises 必须坚定不移做强做优做大. "State-owned enterprises are the pillars of the socialist economy with Chinese characteristics."

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

4 months

"There is an enormous gap between what Beijing promises and what it has delivered, amounting to more than $50 billion in unfulfilled project financing [in Southeast Asia]."

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

I achieved a historic number of followers. Thank you, Elon. My original mission is to seek the happiness of 2049 followers by next year.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Of course, Beijing has tactical reasons to snub US outreach: - Leverage to extract concessions e.g. lifting sanctions on Li/set precedent for future sanctions relief - Reducing operational transparency to enhance deterrence - Removing “guardrails” to elicit restraint from the US

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

7 months

Amb. Xie Feng dangles a carrot for his American audience: "Recently China has taken a series of positive measures to further open up and facilitate China-US exchanges and cooperation. We have authorized MasterCard and NUUC to conduct bank card clearing operations in China and

Xie Feng 谢锋

@AmbXieFeng

7 months

It’s a pleasure to deliver video remarks at the @CarterCenter Forum marking the 45th anniversary of China-US relations. Taking stock of the past, we believe that the most important inspiration is that our two countries stand to gain from cooperation and lose from confrontation,

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Translation: the Chinese side does not see the point in having the two militaries talk about crisis avoidance if the US' policy toward Taiwan is, in Beijing’s view, leading to conflict.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

According to a recent survey by Schwarzman scholar Jason Zhou, a sample of Chinese scholars all view the US as declining, in relative or absolute terms, having a strong military but weak, polarized political system (none see decline as imminent)

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

7 months

@理论中国 My colleague and I never said "the party puts the people first and has always adhered to and continuously enhanced its sense of responsibility for national rejuvenation." That is a misattribution. Please correct your error @理论中国.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

@GlennLuk Not to mention that the consumer surplus generated from HSR, as an unprofitable investment in Pettis’ frame, is so great that it might as well be considered a household transfer

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

What a difference 2 weeks make. Mao Ning, 5/23: "The debt ceiling issue is the US’s domestic affair." Wang Wenbin, 6/8: "The US has long used its dollar hegemony, borrowed recklessly, shifted crises, and pursued quantitative easing which knows no limit."

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Last week, Biden said that Xi is “in a situation now where he wants to have a relationship again” We know the US wants to get back together with China (let’s talk!) But why does China want to re-engage the US? Many wrongly assume it’s because China’s economy is struggling 🧵

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

3 months

Extensive preview of Blinken's visit to China from Yang Tao, head of the MFA North America and Oceania Bureau. Xinhua: 外交部官员谈美国国务卿布林肯访华

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

For context: In April, Xi "ordered senior officials to prepare a new 'themed education' program to infuse 'Xi Jinping Thought' into the minds of cadres from Beijing all the way down to the country’s more than 2,800 county-level areas." @ByChunHan

China’s Xi Mimics Mao’s Crisis Response in Sweeping Indoctrination Drive

The intensity of the “spiritual baptism” campaign reflects the damage that the Chinese leader has sustained from the pandemic, the economy and U.S. tensions.

www.wsj.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

"We're coming to Beijing with a realistic, confident approach and a sincere desire to manage our competition in the most responsible way possible." Good. Quibbling over 面子 (who asks whom to talk/which official you talk to) is trivial.

US plays down chance of breakthrough from Blinken's China visit

The United States on Wednesday played down expectations of any breakthrough from the first trip by a U.S. Secretary of State to China in five years, after a tense call with China's foreign minister...

www.reuters.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Not unprecedented. Xi said this in a speech after the 5th plenum in 2020 (reported at country-level study session). "America is the biggest threat to China's development and security." 美国是我国发展和安全最大的威胁

Yang LIU

@yangliuxh

1 year

Wang Jisi of PKU says China and the U.S. now view each other as the biggest exterior threat. Da Wei of Tsinghua's @CISStsinghua says it might be the first time a Chinese scholar put forward this point. #WorldPeaceForum

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Great talking about Blinken's visit to Beijing on ChinaTalk (my favorite podcast) with esteemed and more articulate interlocutors @Dali_Yang @jordanschnyc

‎ChinaTalk: Blinken to Beijing! on Apple Podcasts

‎Show ChinaTalk, Ep Blinken to Beijing! - Jun 19, 2023

podcasts.apple.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

3 years

The party may be destroying wealth but not income. Income=wages, capex, consmr surplus, R&D. Public asset valuation=arbitrage and inequality. The income destroyed over data security and/or anti-competitive concerns will show up in consumer surplus or the income of new entrants.

Victor Shih

@vshih2

3 years

This is an important metric. The party is directly destroying the wealth of China’s fledging tech sector

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

4 months

US vs China readouts: Assistant Secretary Kritenbrink’s Meetings in Beijing, the People’s Republic of China (PRC)

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Case in point: July 2022, the Foreign Ministry responded to the Biden administration’s requests to establish “guardrails” by stating for the first time that the “three China-U.S. joint communiques” are the “‘guardrails’ of China-U.S. relations.”

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

9 months

Newsom was likely briefed that the PRC interprets 相互尊重 as more than a nicety, but respect for the its sovereignty and territorial interests. US readout:

Governor Newsom Meets with Chinese President Xi Jinping | Governor of California

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW: Governor Newsom met with Chinese President Xi Jinping and other high-level Chinese officials to discuss climate action, economic development, cultural exchange…

www.gov.ca.gov

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

In addition, Xi accurately characterized the US position as the one-China policy 一个中国政策, not China’s own one-China principle 一个中国原则, unlike many MFA spokespersons who intentionally conflate the 2.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

7 years

omg one of my favorite bands, @The_Obsessives just passed me in their tour van and waved. i don't know what to do i'm literally shaking

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

5 months

In Nikkei, I wrote on Biden's China policy--where it's working and where it could use some work. Overall, the "admin's efforts to combine competition with communication have strengthened U.S. leverage while minimizing the risk of conflict."

Renewal of dialogue does not mean Biden has gone soft on China

Through engagement from a position of strength, U.S. can advance policy goals

asia.nikkei.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

According to the 2022 China Military Power Report, US and PRC militaries held only 4 exchanges in 2021, down from over 40 in 2013.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

9 months

The Foreign Ministry readout states that Newsom said, "I endorse (赞同) President Xi Jinping’s principles pertaining to the development of US-China relations."

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Who says the US and China can't agree on anything? "China and the US resumed talks on drug control cooperation on Thursday, reviving discussions after a 10-month suspension and just days before a visit by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken."

China and US revive drug control talks in lead-up to Blinken trip

Senior drug regulators from both countries discuss cooperation for the first time since Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan.

www.scmp.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

The reassurances made in Bali appear completely detached from recent discussions. Qin Gang's call with Blinken laid total blame on US 责任是清楚的. When Blinken visits Beijing, perhaps two sides can gradually get back to Bali, not for own sake, but for real progress that was made

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

7 months

At the Foreign Affairs work conference, Xi referred to China's global initiatives as "strategic guidance" (战略引领). In this new article for East Asian Policy, my colleague and I analyze the rich inner quality (丰富内涵) of those initiatives.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

For foreign diplomats and officials trying to engage with the PRC, Qin Gang's removal is another reminder of the uncertainty about how much authority one's interlocutors hold, how close they are to the center of power, and when their time will be up

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen will travel to Beijing, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from July 6-9 for meetings with senior PRC officials.

Media Advisory: Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen to Travel to the People’s Republic of...

WASHINGTON – Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen will travel to Beijing, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) from July 6-9 for meetings with senior PRC officials.Secretary Yellen’s travel...

home.treasury.gov

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

On Taiwan, Xi for the 1st time told Biden that "we..remain committed to upholding peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait.” This phrase 和平稳定 is common in internal speeches but rarely discussed with the US. That said the two sides mean different things by peace and stability:

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

7 years

honestly, this animal doesn't look like it's worth saving. thoughts?

Popular Science

@PopSci

7 years

Even animals deep below the ocean are being poisoned by toxic chemicals

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

But more broadly, from Beijing’s vantage, the US’ strategic approach to China–based on competition–is fundamentally flawed. Any tactical discussions will do little to stem the tide of rising risks of conflict.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

"The [20th PC] report does not contain a statement about peace and development being global themes of the times. Prior to the 20th CPC National Congress, this statement had always been present in such reports since the 13th National Congress in 1987. "

The 20th CPC National Congress and China’s Foreign Policy: implication and reflection

China International Strategy Review - A new central leadership was elected at the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC), ensuring China’s domestic political stability...

link.springer.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

3 months

The San Francisco consensus lives on: "Mastercard JV switches first domestic transaction in China"

Mastercard JV switches first domestic transaction in China

Mastercard NetsUnion Information Technology (Beijing) Co., Ltd. (Mastercard NetsUnion) today began processing payments made in China with Mastercard cards issued by the country’s banks.

www.mastercard.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

For the US, it means no use of force or coercion. For China, it means a state of cross-strait relations favorable to reunification. In the 2022 Taiwan White Paper, peace and stability is raised in the context of "defending sovereignty" not in the context of a peaceful resolution.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

As evidence of US decline, Liu points to: - Non-Western countries "not taking sides" on Ukraine - The global south acting as “fence-sitters” between the US and China - Loss of influence in the Middle East, especially over Saudi oil production - And the "de-dollarization" trend

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

2 months

“Whatever the explanation for Xi’s comments, it’s clear that the decision-making environment — and the information feeding into it — is being warped.”

Financial Times

@FT

2 months

Xi Jinping claimed US wants China to attack Taiwan

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

4 months

China could reach close to 40% of global manufacturing if its factories drop prices and increase production further. Capacity utilization currently below 76%

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Of course, Biden and Xi met for the first time in person (for 3 hours) on the sidelines of the G20 on November 14. This meeting was remarkable because, only 3 months prior, Beijing cancelled and suspended 8 key dialogues with the US after House Speaker Pelosi visited Taiwan.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

2 years

In this piece for @9DashLine , I argue that Washington has premised competition with China on advancing US primacy. Across the dimensions of economics, security, and soft power, Biden is competing more effectively than the prior administration and succeeding where Trump failed.

9DASHLINE

@9DashLine

2 years

"Washington understands that it is competing with Beijing to determine not only whose economy and military are more dominant but also whose principles of governance are more worthy of global leadership" | by @nathaniel_sher

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Briefly, Beijing views US arms sales, official visits, 21st century trade deal, joint allied statements, and description of TW as “a critical node within the 1st island chain” as undermining the letter if not the spirit of the three communiques.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

4 months

Irony is dead: "China said on Tuesday it has filed a complaint at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over U.S. subsidies for new-energy vehicles (NEVs) under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), according to the Ministry of Commerce."

China files complaint at WTO over U.S. NEV subsidies

China said on Tuesday it has filed a complaint at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over U.S. subsidies for new-energy vehicles (NEVs) under the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), according to the...

news.cgtn.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

So what happened in Bali? Biden and Xi exchanged key reassurances on: - Taiwan - The meaning of US-China competition - Ukraine - Global order - Promoting working-level dialogue "mechanisms" White House: FMPRC:

Readout of President Joe Biden’s Meeting with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of...

President Joseph R. Biden, Jr. met on November 14 with President Xi Jinping of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), in Bali, Indonesia. The two

www.whitehouse.gov

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

As @SamBresnick and I wrote in Foreign Policy over 12 months ago, "the CCP is confident in itself and its future and views the United States as a declining power." Even after zero-Covid, such perceptions appear prevalent.

The Chinese Communist Party Still Thinks It Owns the Future

Outsiders might see a peaking power, but China’s leaders don’t.

foreignpolicy.com

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

3 months

The CCP's April Politburo meeting did not mention "overcapacity" 部分行业产能过剩 as a problem facing China's economy in contrast to the Central Economic Work Conference and Two Sessions. Overcapacity likely to be omitted from 3rd Plenum to avoid giving fodder to China's critics

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

7 years

bumble was the first to wish me happy 23rd, saying i make the world a better place. because i let women make the first move, i tend to agree

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

3 years

My latest with @SamBresnick via @ForeignPolicy . “The CCP is confident in itself and its future and it views the U.S. as a declining power. There is a possibility that overconfidence, rather than the fear of decline, could fuel Chinese military adventurism in the years ahead.”

Foreign Policy

@ForeignPolicy

3 years

Is China declining? The Chinese Communist Party doesn't think so.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Because “socialism with Chinese characteristics” comprises a path (道路), a theory (理论体系), a system of institutions (制度), and a culture (文化), the article is formatted according to this format.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 month

Barry Naughton was eerily prescient when, in March 2014, he predicated that Xi's first 3rd plenum reforms would stall out due to a financial event. Over the next year, the SSE index fell 40%, the yuan devalued by 10%, and housing prices fell 5%.

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

3 months

Happy 国际乒乓球日 If anyone in the DMV area plays ping pong, my DMs are open

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

All of this is to say that Biden's willingness to engage with Beijing, even if it means delaying one or two sanctions, is a sign of strength, not weakness. If the US is confident in its long-term capacity to compete, it should do all it can to avoid near-term catastrophe. END

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

Section 1 starts with the core theory of XJP Thought - "Party leadership is the soul of China's diplomacy” - Diplomacy should ��defend the socialist path” - China’s systemic advantage is “the party's overall coordination” - The ministry's culture should be “loyal to the party"

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Nathaniel Sher

@nathaniel_sher

1 year

For some reason the same people that think China plans in centuries also think China will invade Taiwan in the next 5 years..

Stuart Lau

@StuartKLau

1 year

James Cleverly keeps saying China thinks in terms of millennia. You can't get a more orientalist view...

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