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@mlb_simulator

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Using expected outcomes to simulate previous MLB games, inspired by @MoneyPuckdotcom . Code can be found in GitHub (link below). Created by @DerekGrifka

https://t.co/w2C0gUFRSE
Joined June 2024
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
5 months
The purpose of this account is to analyze how game outcomes can change, depending on when a hit occurred. For example, if a team hit well, but struggled to string together hits. We're essentially determining a team's "luck" factor by how their hits were dispersed in a game
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
13 days
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Tigers at Guardians (10/12/2024) Actual score: Tigers 3, Guardians 7 Deserve-to-win: Tigers 76%, Guardians 15%, Tie 9% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimTigers #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Tigers #Guardians
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
16 days
Yankees at Royals (10/09/2024) Actual score: Yankees 3, Royals 2 Deserve-to-win: Yankees 96%, Royals 3%, Tie 1% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimYankees #MLBSimRoyals #Baseball #Yankees #Royals
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
18 days
--------- ALERT --------- Royals are luck merchants! Royals at Yankees (10/07/2024) Actual score: Royals 4, Yankees 2 Deserve-to-win: Royals 20%, Yankees 72%, Tie 8% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimRoyals #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Royals #Yankees
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
11 days
Guardians at Yankees (10/14/2024) Actual score: Guardians 2, Yankees 5 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 0%, Yankees 100%, Tie 0% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Guardians #Yankees
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest #MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
15 days
Yankees at Royals (10/10/2024) Actual score: Yankees 3, Royals 1 Deserve-to-win: Yankees 70%, Royals 21%, Tie 9% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimYankees #MLBSimRoyals #Baseball #Yankees #Royals
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
7 days
Yankees at Guardians (10/18/2024) Actual score: Yankees 8, Guardians 6 Deserve-to-win: Yankees 80%, Guardians 13%, Tie 7% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimYankees #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Yankees #Guardians
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Guardians at Yankees (08/20/2024) Actual score: Guardians 9, Yankees 5 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 16%, Yankees 77%, Tie 7% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Guardians #Yankees
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
16 days
The Yankees hit 4 of the 5 barrels in this game, while also having 6 more walks/hbp. They left 11 on base and went 0-6 w/RISP. This Soto flyout is just painful:
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Cubs at Guardians (08/14/2024) Actual score: Cubs 1, Guardians 6 Deserve-to-win: Cubs 47%, Guardians 36%, Tie 17% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimCubs #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Cubs #Guardians
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
3 months
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest #MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
11 days
In addition to 6 more walks, the Yankees all 6 of the hardest hit balls vs the Guardians. The Yankees were 0-7 w/RIPS and the most likely score was Yankees 12 - Guardians 1. Note: Deserve-to-win % are rounded, so 100% is likely 99.5%
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
26 days
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest #MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
17 days
Jazz confirmed Deserve to Win O Meter truther
@TalkinBaseball_
Talkin’ Baseball
@TalkinBaseball_
18 days
Jazz Chisholm Jr. says the Royals got lucky tonight
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
30 days
--------- ALERT --------- Orioles are luck merchants! Orioles at Yankees (09/25/2024) Actual score: Orioles 9, Yankees 7 Deserve-to-win: Orioles 8%, Yankees 88%, Tie 4% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimOrioles #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Orioles #Yankees
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Cubs at Guardians (08/12/2024) Actual score: Cubs 8, Guardians 9 Deserve-to-win: Cubs 72%, Guardians 20%, Tie 8% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimCubs #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Cubs #Guardians
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Guardians at Twins (08/11/2024) Actual score: Guardians 5, Twins 3 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 17%, Twins 74%, Tie 9% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimTwins #Baseball #Guardians #Twins
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
8 days
Yankees at Guardians (10/17/2024) Actual score: Yankees 5, Guardians 7 Deserve-to-win: Yankees 4%, Guardians 94%, Tie 2% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimYankees #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Yankees #Guardians
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
13 days
In addition to having 6 more walks than the Guardians, Detroit had 3 of the 4 barrels in this game. If Colt Keith hits this left/right a few degrees, then this is a home run
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
10 days
Guardians at Yankees (10/15/2024) Actual score: Guardians 3, Yankees 6 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 34%, Yankees 54%, Tie 12% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Guardians #Yankees
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
20 days
--------- ALERT --------- Yankees are luck merchants! Royals at Yankees (10/05/2024) Actual score: Royals 5, Yankees 6 Deserve-to-win: Royals 52%, Yankees 41%, Tie 7% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimRoyals #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Royals #Yankees
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Twins are luck merchants! Twins at Rangers (08/16/2024) Actual score: Twins 4, Rangers 3 Deserve-to-win: Twins 30%, Rangers 60%, Tie 10% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimTwins #MLBSimRangers #Baseball #Twins #Rangers
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Should I run a deserve-to-win for the 2016 WS Game 7
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Padres are luck merchants! Twins at Padres (08/19/2024) Actual score: Twins 3, Padres 5 Deserve-to-win: Twins 73%, Padres 17%, Tie 10% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimTwins #MLBSimPadres #Baseball #Twins #Padres
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
4 months
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Pirates at Guardians (08/30/2024) Actual score: Pirates 8, Guardians 10 Deserve-to-win: Pirates 57%, Guardians 34%, Tie 9% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimPirates #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Pirates #Guardians
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
This is STRICTLY a fun exercise that should not be taken out of context. But....lol Cubs at Guardians (11/02/2016) - WS GM 7 - Actual score: Cubs 8, Guardians 7 Deserve-to-win: Cubs 73%, Guardians 18%, Tie 9% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimCubs #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Cubs #Guardians
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Should I run a deserve-to-win for the 2016 WS Game 7
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Guardians at Dodgers (09/06/2024) Actual score: Guardians 3, Dodgers 1 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 35%, Dodgers 52%, Tie 13% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimDodgers #Baseball #Guardians #Dodgers
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Twins are luck merchants! Blue Jays at Twins (09/01/2024) Actual score: Blue Jays 3, Twins 4 Deserve-to-win: Blue Jays 60%, Twins 30%, Tie 10% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimBlueJays #MLBSimTwins #Baseball #BlueJays #Twins
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Scatterplot of lucky vs unlucky games for each team
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Rays are luck merchants! Twins at Rays (09/03/2024) Actual score: Twins 1, Rays 2 Deserve-to-win: Twins 72%, Rays 13%, Tie 15% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimTwins #MLBSimRays #Baseball #Twins #Rays
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
23 days
--------- ALERT --------- Tigers are luck merchants! Tigers at Astros (10/02/2024) Actual score: Tigers 5, Astros 2 Deserve-to-win: Tigers 16%, Astros 78%, Tie 6% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimTigers #MLBSimAstros #Baseball #Tigers #Astros
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
3 months
--------- ALERT --------- Brewers are luck merchants! Brewers at Twins (07/20/2024) Actual score: Brewers 8, Twins 4 Deserve-to-win: Brewers 27%, Twins 62%, Tie 11% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimBrewers #MLBSimTwins #Baseball #Brewers #Twins
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
19 days
--------- ALERT --------- Phillies are luck merchants! Mets at Phillies (10/06/2024) Actual score: Mets 6, Phillies 7 Deserve-to-win: Mets 77%, Phillies 17%, Tie 6% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimMets #MLBSimPhillies #Baseball #Mets #Phillies
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
@MVPrielipp I can’t even make this up, man. Guardians must have dirt on the baseball gods
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
3 months
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Padres at Guardians (07/19/2024) Actual score: Padres 0, Guardians 7 Deserve-to-win: Padres 58%, Guardians 30%, Tie 12% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimPadres #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Padres #Guardians
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Luck trends this season
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Obviously a controversial post, but the Guardians had 0 barrels and only 3 batted balls with an xBA over .500
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Using batted balls and walks, the #Braves have had an average win probability of 61%, while the #Nationals have an average of 41%. The team with the higher probability of winning actually won 69% of the time. Actual team record within the bars.
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
25 days
--------- ALERT --------- Mets are luck merchants! Mets at Braves (09/30/2024) Actual score: Mets 8, Braves 7 Deserve-to-win: Mets 21%, Braves 72%, Tie 7% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimMets #MLBSimBraves #Baseball #Mets #Braves
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
@CyLouie__ I’m dead 😂
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Padres are luck merchants! Twins at Padres (08/20/2024) Actual score: Twins 5, Padres 7 Deserve-to-win: Twins 44%, Padres 42%, Tie 14% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimTwins #MLBSimPadres #Baseball #Twins #Padres
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
3 months
--------- ALERT --------- Guardians are luck merchants! Guardians at Phillies (07/26/2024) Actual score: Guardians 3, Phillies 1 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 25%, Phillies 60%, Tie 15% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimPhillies #Baseball #Guardians #Phillies
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
@JacobsFieldRBW Let the people who know how to make models determine the worth of a model
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MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
16 days
@greenblatt_evan Jazz to the reporters
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MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
1 month
--------- ALERT --------- Yankees are luck merchants! Royals at Yankees (09/11/2024) Actual score: Royals 3, Yankees 4 Deserve-to-win: Royals 73%, Yankees 18%, Tie 9% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimRoyals #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Royals #Yankees
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Royals at Guardians (08/28/2024) Actual score: Royals 5, Guardians 7 Deserve-to-win: Royals 24%, Guardians 66%, Tie 10% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimRoyals #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Royals #Guardians
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
1 month
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest #MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
3 months
Guardians at Twins (08/09/2024) Actual score: Guardians 3, Twins 6 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 8%, Twins 88%, Tie 4% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimTwins #Baseball #Guardians #Twins
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
3 months
--------- ALERT --------- Orioles are luck merchants! Orioles at Guardians (08/04/2024) Actual score: Orioles 9, Guardians 5 Deserve-to-win: Orioles 33%, Guardians 52%, Tie 15% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimOrioles #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Orioles #Guardians
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Cubs are luck merchants! Cubs at Pirates (08/26/2024) Actual score: Cubs 18, Pirates 8 Deserve-to-win: Cubs 42%, Pirates 52%, Tie 6% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimCubs #MLBSimPirates #Baseball #Cubs #Pirates
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
17 days
--------- ALERT --------- Padres are luck merchants! Dodgers at Padres (10/08/2024) Actual score: Dodgers 5, Padres 6 Deserve-to-win: Dodgers 66%, Padres 24%, Tie 10% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimDodgers #MLBSimPadres #Baseball #Dodgers #Padres
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Royals are luck merchants! Twins at Royals (09/07/2024) Actual score: Twins 2, Royals 4 Deserve-to-win: Twins 70%, Royals 17%, Tie 13% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimTwins #MLBSimRoyals #Baseball #Twins #Royals
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Twins at Rangers (08/15/2024) Actual score: Twins 3, Rangers 2 Deserve-to-win: Twins 69%, Rangers 20%, Tie 11% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimTwins #MLBSimRangers #Baseball #Twins #Rangers
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@mlb_simulator
16 days
Reminder: In order for a team to be considered a "luck merchant", the losing team (i.e. Guardians here) has to have a win probability > 50%. Also, the most likely score was 0-0. Woof.
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Royals at Twins (08/12/2024) Actual score: Royals 3, Twins 8 Deserve-to-win: Royals 5%, Twins 88%, Tie 7% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimRoyals #MLBSimTwins #Baseball #Royals #Twins
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
@Bettor76886523 I feel like I owe it to the city of Cleveland
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Guardians at Yankees (08/22/2024) Actual score: Guardians 0, Yankees 6 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 2%, Yankees 96%, Tie 2% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Guardians #Yankees
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
@HoffnerDrake LMAO putting my phone on silence and going to bed
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Guardians at Yankees (08/21/2024) Actual score: Guardians 1, Yankees 8 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 6%, Yankees 87%, Tie 7% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimYankees #Baseball #Guardians #Yankees
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
1 month
Twins at Guardians (09/18/2024) Actual score: Twins 4, Guardians 5 Deserve-to-win: Twins 12%, Guardians 78%, Tie 10% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimTwins #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Twins #Guardians
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Royals at Guardians (08/26/2024) Actual score: Royals 4, Guardians 3 Deserve-to-win: Royals 93%, Guardians 4%, Tie 3% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimRoyals #MLBSimGuardians #Baseball #Royals #Guardians
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Twins at Rangers (08/17/2024) Actual score: Twins 5, Rangers 2 Deserve-to-win: Twins 46%, Rangers 41%, Tie 13% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimTwins #MLBSimRangers #Baseball #Twins #Rangers
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
@JacobsFieldRBW Just your daily reminder that you don't need to reply with your same (incorrect) complaints that we address in every post 👍
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
This is the luckiest win of the year! The Mets hit all 11 of the hardest hit balls in this game. The Marlins win this game ~1% of the time, and looks like this game fell into that 1%
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Marlins are luck merchants! Marlins at Mets (08/18/2024) Actual score: Marlins 3, Mets 2 Deserve-to-win: Marlins 1%, Mets 97%, Tie 2% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimMarlins #MLBSimMets #Baseball #Marlins #Mets
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
4 months
--------- ALERT --------- Cardinals are luck merchants! Cardinals at Cubs (06/14/2024) Actual score: Cardinals 3, Cubs 0 Deserve-to-win: Cardinals 7%, Cubs 87%, Tie 6% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball #Cardinals #Cubs
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
1 month
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest #MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Rays are luck merchants! Twins at Rays (09/04/2024) Actual score: Twins 4, Rays 9 Deserve-to-win: Twins 76%, Rays 17%, Tie 7% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimTwins #MLBSimRays #Baseball #Twins #Rays
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
3 months
--------- ALERT --------- Giants are luck merchants! Twins at Giants (07/12/2024) Actual score: Twins 1, Giants 7 Deserve-to-win: Twins 48%, Giants 43%, Tie 9% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball #Twins #Giants
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
17 days
I wanted to evaluate each team's 2024 win probabilities using a Bayesian Hierarchical model. If you're curious what any of this is, then check out my Medium article and Colab file:
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Guardians at Brewers (08/17/2024) Actual score: Guardians 1, Brewers 2 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 5%, Brewers 85%, Tie 10% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimBrewers #Baseball #Guardians #Brewers
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
4 months
Based on batted ball metrics alone, the #Braves should probably have more wins than they actually do
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
22 days
--------- ALERT --------- Mets are luck merchants! Mets at Brewers (10/03/2024) Actual score: Mets 4, Brewers 2 Deserve-to-win: Mets 15%, Brewers 79%, Tie 6% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimMets #MLBSimBrewers #Baseball #Mets #Brewers
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
3 months
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest #MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
1 month
--------- ALERT --------- Dodgers are luck merchants! Dodgers at Braves (09/16/2024) Actual score: Dodgers 9, Braves 0 Deserve-to-win: Dodgers 14%, Braves 80%, Tie 6% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimDodgers #MLBSimBraves #Baseball #Dodgers #Braves
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team. #Guardians so far the luckiest and #Braves the unluckiest #MLB #Statcast #MLBSim #Baseball
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Cardinals are luck merchants! Cardinals at Twins (08/25/2024) Actual score: Cardinals 3, Twins 2 Deserve-to-win: Cardinals 21%, Twins 58%, Tie 21% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimCardinals #MLBSimTwins #Baseball #Cardinals #Twins
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
26 days
Scatterplot of lucky vs unlucky games for each team
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
3 months
The #WhiteSox have lost 21 straight games! How hard have they hit the ball vs every other teams' last 21 games? If we remove batted balls with a Launch Angle below 0° (i.e. blatant ground balls), then only the #Guardians hit fewer hard hit balls!
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Using batted balls and walks, the #Braves have had an average win probability of 61%, while the #White Sox have an average of 41%. Actual team record within the bars.
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
3 months
--------- ALERT --------- Tigers are luck merchants! Twins at Tigers (07/27/2024) Actual score: Twins 2, Tigers 7 Deserve-to-win: Twins 45%, Tigers 39%, Tie 16% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimTwins #MLBSimTigers #Baseball #Twins #Tigers
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
15 days
Guardians at Tigers (10/10/2024) Actual score: Guardians 5, Tigers 4 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 55%, Tigers 37%, Tie 8% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimTigers #Baseball #Guardians #Tigers
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- D-backs are luck merchants! D-backs at Red Sox (08/25/2024) Actual score: D-backs 7, Red Sox 5 Deserve-to-win: D-backs 6%, Red Sox 90%, Tie 4% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimDbacks #MLBSimRedSox #Baseball #Dbacks #RedSox
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
--------- ALERT --------- Marlins are luck merchants! Marlins at Mets (08/18/2024) Actual score: Marlins 3, Mets 2 Deserve-to-win: Marlins 1%, Mets 97%, Tie 2% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimMarlins #MLBSimMets #Baseball #Marlins #Mets
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
3 months
--------- ALERT --------- Cubs are luck merchants! Brewers at Cubs (07/22/2024) Actual score: Brewers 1, Cubs 3 Deserve-to-win: Brewers 76%, Cubs 15%, Tie 9% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimBrewers #MLBSimCubs #Baseball #Brewers #Cubs
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
FYI the model is trained on batted ball data at each stadium, so I can’t provide a recap for the Tigers / Yankees game at Journey Bank Ballpark. Sorry :/
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
1 month
--------- ALERT --------- Mets are luck merchants! Phillies at Mets (09/22/2024) Actual score: Phillies 1, Mets 2 Deserve-to-win: Phillies 80%, Mets 12%, Tie 8% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimPhillies #MLBSimMets #Baseball #Phillies #Mets
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
11 days
Mets at Dodgers (10/14/2024) Actual score: Mets 7, Dodgers 3 Deserve-to-win: Mets 80%, Dodgers 15%, Tie 5% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimMets #MLBSimDodgers #Baseball #Mets #Dodgers
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
@stevelandguards This insult would’ve done numbers in like 2005
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
4 months
7 of the 8 hardest hit balls were from Astros players. With 5 walks/hbp in tow, it’s surprising the #Astros only scored 2 runs, but bein 2-14 with RISP will do it
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
12 days
@anderson_hunt22 Most fan bases enjoy it, except Cleveland
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
16 days
Guardians at Tigers (10/09/2024) Actual score: Guardians 0, Tigers 3 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 41%, Tigers 40%, Tie 19% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimTigers #Baseball #Guardians #Tigers
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
23 days
--------- ALERT --------- Royals are luck merchants! Royals at Orioles (10/02/2024) Actual score: Royals 2, Orioles 1 Deserve-to-win: Royals 10%, Orioles 84%, Tie 6% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimRoyals #MLBSimOrioles #Baseball #Royals #Orioles
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
Cardinals at Twins (08/24/2024) Actual score: Cardinals 0, Twins 6 Deserve-to-win: Cardinals 1%, Twins 98%, Tie 1% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimCardinals #MLBSimTwins #Baseball #Cardinals #Twins
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
29 days
--------- ALERT --------- Tigers are luck merchants! Rays at Tigers (09/26/2024) Actual score: Rays 3, Tigers 4 Deserve-to-win: Rays 58%, Tigers 16%, Tie 26% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimRays #MLBSimTigers #Baseball #Rays #Tigers
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
1 month
--------- ALERT --------- Cardinals are luck merchants! Guardians at Cardinals (09/21/2024) Actual score: Guardians 5, Cardinals 6 Deserve-to-win: Guardians 52%, Cardinals 37%, Tie 11% #MLB #Statcast #MLBSimGuardians #MLBSimCardinals #Baseball #Guardians #Cardinals
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
The Yankees hit 11 of the 17 hardest balls in this game, including 3 more barrels than the Guardians
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
3 months
@YATitTat Lmao I get it. I just wanted to defend the Guardians for a sec since my model has been a field day for MN twitter lol
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@mlb_simulator
MLB Deserve-To-Win-O-Meter
@mlb_simulator
2 months
I'm working on adding stolen bases, caught stealing, and errors to the model. I accidentally tweeted a sample that had a 100% probability (since I only ran 1 sim as a test), so please ignore that😀
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