Using expected outcomes to simulate previous MLB games, inspired by
@MoneyPuckdotcom
. Code can be found in GitHub (link below). Created by
@DerekGrifka
The purpose of this account is to analyze how game outcomes can change, depending on when a hit occurred. For example, if a team hit well, but struggled to string together hits. We're essentially determining a team's "luck" factor by how their hits were dispersed in a game
The Yankees hit 4 of the 5 barrels in this game, while also having 6 more walks/hbp. They left 11 on base and went 0-6 w/RISP. This Soto flyout is just painful:
In addition to 6 more walks, the Yankees all 6 of the hardest hit balls vs the Guardians. The Yankees were 0-7 w/RIPS and the most likely score was Yankees 12 - Guardians 1.
Note: Deserve-to-win % are rounded, so 100% is likely 99.5%
In addition to having 6 more walks than the Guardians, Detroit had 3 of the 4 barrels in this game. If Colt Keith hits this left/right a few degrees, then this is a home run
Updated pot-o-gold chart that sums the lucky games (+1) with the unlucky games (-1) in 2024 for each team.
#Guardians
so far the luckiest and
#Braves
the unluckiest
Using batted balls and walks, the
#Braves
have had an average win probability of 61%, while the
#Nationals
have an average of 41%. The team with the higher probability of winning actually won 69% of the time. Actual team record within the bars.
Reminder: In order for a team to be considered a "luck merchant", the losing team (i.e. Guardians here) has to have a win probability > 50%.
Also, the most likely score was 0-0. Woof.
This is the luckiest win of the year! The Mets hit all 11 of the hardest hit balls in this game. The Marlins win this game ~1% of the time, and looks like this game fell into that 1%
I wanted to evaluate each team's 2024 win probabilities using a Bayesian Hierarchical model.
If you're curious what any of this is, then check out my Medium article and Colab file:
The
#WhiteSox
have lost 21 straight games! How hard have they hit the ball vs every other teams' last 21 games? If we remove batted balls with a Launch Angle below 0° (i.e. blatant ground balls), then only the
#Guardians
hit fewer hard hit balls!
Using batted balls and walks, the
#Braves
have had an average win probability of 61%, while the
#White
Sox have an average of 41%. Actual team record within the bars.
FYI the model is trained on batted ball data at each stadium, so I can’t provide a recap for the Tigers / Yankees game at Journey Bank Ballpark. Sorry :/
7 of the 8 hardest hit balls were from Astros players. With 5 walks/hbp in tow, it’s surprising the
#Astros
only scored 2 runs, but bein 2-14 with RISP will do it
I'm working on adding stolen bases, caught stealing, and errors to the model. I accidentally tweeted a sample that had a 100% probability (since I only ran 1 sim as a test), so please ignore that😀