Market Sentiment @mkt_sentiment Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Market Sentiment

@mkt_sentiment

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Actionable, data-backed investment insights for long-term investors, financial advisors, and analysts.

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Joined July 2019

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

At age 25, you give your hedge fund manager $100K to manage, and he produces an annual return of 8%. Assuming a 1.5% management and 20% performance fee, by the time you retire at 65, you will have $764K. But the manager will have $1.24M (at zero initial investment!)

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

1 year

NVIDIA ($NVDA) is now trading at 37 times its revenue (P/S) and 202 times its earnings (P/E)! Now's the right time to remember what Scott McNealy, CEO of Sun Microsystems told Bloomberg just after the dot-com collapse 👇

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

10 months

@DividendGrowth Classic one. Sell the 50% chance of $50 million to an institution for $10M.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Today is Charlie Munger’s 99th birthday. Here is a 90-second video from him that can change your worldview!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

12 important charts every investor must know: 1. Over the past ~200 years, the U.S. dollar has lost 95% of its value whereas stocks are up 70,499,600%.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

1/ Warren Buffett always recommends buying into the S&P 500 over picking stocks. But in 2005, he raised the stakes with a $500k bet: "Nobody can select a set of at least 5 hedge funds that would match the S&P500 over ten years." Only one person took up the bet - Ted Seides.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

1 year

94% of active fund managers do not beat the market. Even Warren Buffett's Berkshire has now underperformed the S&P 500 over a 20-year period. Here’s why it's so hard to beat the market:

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

. @dollarsanddata did an interesting study that showed that it only takes about 17 years on average for the fund to beat the investor.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

3 years

Follow me @mkt_sentiment for the best financial content and memes. I post interesting threads 2-3x a week!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

@dollarsanddata Warren Buffett once made a $500,000 open bet: "No manager can choose a set of at least five actively managed funds that would beat the Vanguard S&P500 index fund after fees, over one decade." @tseides was the only person who took up the bet.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

The most profound advice on the purpose of life is from the most unlikely source as well!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

1 year

When researchers analyzed the performance of 18,000 regular gamblers in casino games, only 13% won over a two-year period. But, less than 1% of day traders reliably generated a positive return two years running. Bookmark this 🧵 for the next time you feel like day trading:

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

3 years

@SJosephBurns

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Me, after I have made +2% on my Crypto play!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

This is possibly the most important chart in investing. Over the past ~200 years, the U.S. dollar has lost 95% of its value whereas stocks are up 70,499,600%!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Jim Cramer made an incredible 21,653 stock picks in the last 7 years. The 24% CAGR claim for his Hedge Fund was never independently verified... Cramer's own portfolio has underperformed S&P500 since its inception! Here is how his stock picks fared🧵:

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

The last 24 hours saw some incredible "Lehman-like" developments in the UK Markets - Pension funds at risk of insolvency - £65bn bond-buying program - Record-low currency “At some point this morning I was worried this was the beginning of the end” - London-based banker 🧵

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

The first time they met, Warren Buffett introduced Bill Gates to his favorite critical thinking exercise Buffett uses it to spot long-term trends and investments. Let's recreate his exercise using data from the last 4 decades (with an interesting challenge at the end) 🧵

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

A little-known fact about Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger is that they had another partner back in the ’70s named Rick Guerin. Rick's fund had phenomenal returns. But shortly after, Rick dropped off the radar and it would take 30+ years before we found out what happened 🧵

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

1 year

At age 25, you give your hedge fund manager $100K to manage, and he produces an annual return of 8%. Assuming a 1.5% management and 20% performance fee, by the time you retire at 65, you will have $764K. But the manager will have $1.24M (at zero initial investment!)

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Stanford University conducted a famous experiment in 2005. They gave 41 participants $20 and asked them to make 20 rounds of $1 investing decisions based on a coin toss. The catch - some of the participants had emotional brain damage. And they outperformed all others!🧵

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

@GrahamStephan China has more than 225 Million Square Meters of Unfinished Homes. This is not going to end well.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Best thing I have seen all week😂

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

@QCompounding Yeah. It's incredible what 2 & 20 can do for the fund manager ;)

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Here's an incredible stat about the growing wealth inequality: In 1989, when Baby Boomers were roughly the same age as Millennials today, Boomers owned 21.3% of the national wealth. Millennials today own just 4.6%.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

What @jposhaughnessy wrote in 1999 is 100% valid 20 years later!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

3 years

Update: Some good news from NBC. “From March 2017 until the final sale on Feb. 23, 2022, TRS invested $15.6 million with $12.4 million returned for a loss of $3.2 million,” the Teachers’ Retirement System (TRS) of Kentucky said in a statement.

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Kentucky Teachers’ Retirement Fund lost $3M in selling investment in Russian bank

Sberbank saw its shares fall 95 percent this week after the bank announced it was pulling out of the European market.

www.nbcnews.com

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

The best argument for global diversification.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

3 years

@MrPink37533799 Yes, the impact on the whole fund might not be severe, but the choice of investment is definitely shady.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

$FRC is down 66% premarket. This guy never misses...

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

@DividendGrowth At age 25, you give your hedge fund manager $100K to manage, and he produces an annual return of 8%. Assuming a 1.5% management and 20% performance fee, by the time you retire at 65, you will have $764K. But the manager will have $1.24M (at zero initial investment!)

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

1 year

If history is any guide, buying growth stocks that trade at 10x sales provides significantly lower returns than the broad market. (h/t LarryBermanETF)

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

8.5% so far....

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

We are living through historic times. The Fed is hiking rates faster than ever before. But what is the Federal rate and how does it work? How is the rising rate crashing the market? Here's a 101 on Fed Rates and how they affect the stock market. 🧵

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Breaking: Vanguard's CEO has withdrawn his firm from the $59 trillion ESG Investing Alliance. “Our research indicates that ESG investing does not have any advantage over broad-based investing”

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Well, ain't that convenient!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

U.S Debt Ceiling drama & the stock market 🧵 Since 1960, Congress has acted 78 separate times to permanently raise, temporarily extend, or revise the definition of the debt limit. The current "crisis" is a nothingburger - But, the national debt on the other hand though...

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

1 year

Call it irony or foreshadowing, Sun Microsystem's campaign was "We put the dot in dot com". At its peak in 2000, the company was valued at $200 billion. By 2001, the stock price had dropped by 80% and Oracle bought Sun for $7B in 2010. A 96% drop from its peak valuation.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

1/ Only 6% of actively managed funds managed to beat the S&P 500 over a 20-year period. If you look at it closely, the S&P 500 strategy is as simple as "buy big stocks". Let’s dive into why this simple strategy works - and what it takes to outperform it 🧵:

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

1 year

The average investor is terrible at investing. Here are 5 simple yet powerful principles for successful long-term investing:

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

1 year

If your aim is to outperform the market, you have a much better chance with value investing. Warren Buffett once showcased a group of investors who used the simple principle of buying value stocks with a significant margin of safety to beat the market for decades running.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

If you invested $1,000 in Berkshire Hathaway in 1965, by 2009 your investment would have been worth $4.3 million If Buffett had set up Berkshire as a hedge fund, and charged a 2% annual fee plus 20% of any gains, the investor would have been left with only $300,000

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

TIL: Back in 1933, Standard Oil company was granted rights to search for Oil in a little country called Saudi Arabia. They formed a joint venture with the Saudis and they called it Arabian American company aka Aramco. It's the biggest company in the world now...

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

YTD Performance of some 2022 Super Bowl Advertisers: Carvana: -97% Vroom: -91% Coinbase: -80% Meta: -71% Rocket Mortgage: -55% DraftKings: -54% Salesforce : -42% FTX: Private but y'all know how it went. Now you know what to do come next Super Bowl!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

1 year

Buffett goes on to highlight that Value Investing has nothing to do with brain power and everything to do with the right mental fortitude.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Henry Singleton had the best operating record in American Business. He turned a $450k investment in Teledyne into $60M net income in 9 years. But when the conglomerate bubble popped in the 60s, the stock crashed from $40 to $8. His comeback was even more impressive. 🧵

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

11 months

The most important investing idea you've never heard of: 𝗦𝗵𝗮𝗻𝗻𝗼𝗻'𝘀 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗻. Using it, we can consistently generate positive returns from two uncorrelated assets having zero expected long-term returns! Here’s how 👇:

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Having a monopoly in an industry is as close as you can get to legally owning a money printer! It allows the company to have high - Pricing power - Earnings & RoI - Stability The key question is whether these factors allow the monopoly companies to beat the market 👇

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

I recently came across an incredible finding: 40% of individual investors take on debt to invest. Half of them borrow $5K or more. Leverage is that magical thing that works until it doesn't! Here's when you should use debt - and when you should stay clear. 🧵

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

5/ Suppose you invest $100k at age 25 with a hedge fund which makes an 8% profit every year. You are charged 1.5% on assets, and a 20% performance fee. When you retire at 60, you will have $764k. But your manager will have $1.24MM - at no initial investment!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

What happened here - Wrong answers only :P

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Even after the recent fall in markets, the Buffet Indicator is still one of the highest on record, north of the ~140% recorded during the dot-com bubble of 2000!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

How DCA'ing into the market feels like right now!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

94% of active fund managers do not beat the market. But data shows us that there are a lot of simple strategies that do. Here's how you can beat the market 👇

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

1/ FTX's bankruptcy filing report is incredible 🚨🚨 John Ray, the new FTX CEO, is the same person who restructured Enron after its scandal. His take on FTX under penalty of perjury - "Never in my career have I seen such a complete failure of corporate controls"

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

If you invested when consumer sentiment was at its highest, on average the S&P 500 returned only 4% in the next 12 months. However, if you made the same investment when sentiment was at its lowest, your average return was 24.9% - a sixfold increase!

Going against the grain

www.marketsentiment.co

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Incredible - The monthly mortgage payment on the median asking price home rose to a record high of $2,427 at the current 5.3% mortgage rate. This was up 44%—an all-time high—from $1,685 a year earlier, when mortgage rates were 2.94%.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

3 years

@MegaTrendInvest @JerryCap Yeah. same feeling here. Not sure why these folks are trying to outperform the market.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Google ($76 Billion profit in 2021) is laying off 12,000 people and Microsoft ($61 Billion profit in 2021) is cutting 10,000 jobs. Another reminder that company loyalty is truly a one-way street & switching jobs is the best way to increase your income.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

This is fantastic counter-intuitive thinking from @JeffBezos

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

9 months

94% of active fund managers do not beat the market. Even Warren Buffett's Berkshire has now underperformed the S&P 500 over a 20-year period. Here’s why it's so hard to beat the market:

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Why stopping investing during downturns is the worst thing you can do for long term wealth creation

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Must read for all long term investors!

@QCompounding

Compounding Quality

2 years

We mapped all shareholder letters of Warren Buffett in one PDF. You can download it for free here:

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

During the last 4 decades, the minimum wage has only grown 2x but Rents - 5x Housing - 6x Public College - 10x We have to now work twice or thrice as hard as our parents just to get by. Next time someone asks you to “pull yourself up by your bootstraps”, show them this🧵

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

10 months

Our 9 favorite insights from Credit Suisse's Global Wealth Report 2023: 1/ 1% of the world's population owns 46% of the total global wealth.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Netflix $NFLX announced yesterday that it lost 970,000 subscribers. The stock skyrocketed. But wait, shouldn’t the announcement of bad news make the stock price go down? No. This was great news! (1/4)

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

SVB was the banker for nearly half of all VC-backed startups in the US. They had more than $200B in assets and $175B in deposits. Here is the full story of how one of America’s 20 largest commercial banks went down in 48 hours:

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

1 year

Researchers at the University of Florida were able to develop a long-short strategy using ChatGPT that generated a 550% return (Oct'21 to Dec'22 - during which, the S&P 500 was down ~10%). The strategy was simple: Recent news headlines were collected for each company, and then

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

This is incredible - we are in uncharted waters now..

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

2. Staying invested in the market is the best way to make money.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

Saying anything about Credit Suisse now is like stepping into a minefield. Some criticize you for panic mongering. Others will inflate the issue beyond what it is. Here is a breakdown of the news stories with ONE tip on what to do at the end. All reliable sources.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

1 year

The fundamental problem with picking stocks is it's not a 50/50 chance as most investors think. 80% of all stocks generated 0% return and the remaining 20% of stocks accounted for all the gains. If you randomly pick a stock, you only have a 20% chance of turning a profit.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

When you come full circle! #BTC

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

11 months

How stock markets of different countries have performed in the long run 🧵. (𝘝𝘪𝘢 𝘉𝘰𝘧𝘈 𝘙𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘢𝘳𝘤𝘩) 1. 𝗨𝗦: $1 invested in US large company stocks in 1824 was worth $16 million in 2023.

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

1/ Gold, Real Estate, Bitcoin, Value Stocks & Commodities - What do they have in common? These are classic investments recommended as hedges against high inflation. Now that we had more than a year of high inflation environment, let's see how these investments have performed:

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

If you’ve been invested in the S&P 500 since 2003, you have a 9.8% annualised return. But if you missed the best 30 days during those 20 years, you’ve only had a 0.8% return. To make it worse, six of the seven best days occurred just after the worst days. Stay invested!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

"Insiders might sell their shares for any number of reasons, but they buy them for only one: they think the price will rise." - Peter Lynch

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

"It's different this time". The go-to motto for everyone who buys into a new and overvalued asset class and wants to justify it. Here's how the British South Sea trading bubble in the 1720s had the exact same playbook as the Crypto bubble we are in - three centuries later 👇

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

11 months

During the dotcom crash, S&P 500: - 45% 60|40 Portfolio: -20% The Cockroach portfolio: -5%! A deep dive 👇 Let’s start with a thought experiment. You are planning to make a long-term investment (10 years), and you have three options: Portfolio A consistently grows 10%

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

1 year

This is possibly the most important chart in investing. Over the past ~200 years, the U.S. dollar has lost 95% of its value whereas stocks are up 70,499,600%!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

@Fritz844 After adjusting for inflation, S&P 500 has given 6.5 to 7% over the past 200 years! Shouldn't a low-cost index fund be the way to go?

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Market Sentiment

2 years

@QCompounding #1 is underappreciated. Over the past ~200 years, the U.S. dollar has lost 95% of its value whereas stocks are up 70,499,600%!

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

7 months

It now takes $5.8 million in net worth to join the top 1% in the U.S. [via Bloomberg]

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@mkt_sentiment

Market Sentiment

2 years

A lesson for the ages: “Every banker knows that if he has to prove he is worthy of credit, in fact his credit is gone.” — Walter Bagehot

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