I’m sitting in Beirut talking to sources and reading all the coverage of the overnight (long expected) escalation between Hezbollah and Israel. It’s all pretty clear cut for now but a couple things stand out to me 1/
The Israeli claim Hezb planned to fire 6k rockets and thousands destroyed in the pre-empt attack is silly. About 40 launch sites hit, and many of those are extremely well protected aka underground facilities that can be disrupted but not easily destroyed 2/
Final note: Airport’s essentially closed for now, I can’t leave and have no real assignments because there’s hardly any news orgs left in business. so DMs open and email in bio if anyone needs some help or wants to pre empt my being forced to start an annoying substack lol
It’s heartwarming to see Russia and Ukraine analysts from all ideological groups unite behind explaining they have no idea what’s happening or what it might mean.
The few hundred rockets fired after the Israeli strikes were likely intended to draw Iron Dome responses and open corridors for drones targeting key sites: military bases/intel HQs as far south as Tel Aviv. Unconfirmed but logical and consistent with Hezb doctrine. 3/
A former U.S. intelligence officer has claimed that the U.S. is secretly operating a UFO retrieval program and possesses “intact craft of non-human origin.”
The pre-empt strikes by IAF are described as targeting long range missiles - not cheap short ranged rockets from Hezb’s effectively unlimited supply. But the geographically limited nature the strikes - from what I can tell virtually all south of the Litani - raises questions. 4/
The long range missiles - there’s a bunch of charts of various systems - aren’t generally based on the border, and easy to spot and hit. Hezb has strategic depth and use it very effectively. Putting them 20km closer to the border offers little benefit and lots of risk. 5/
Aka missiles launched from much deeper in the mountains away from the border can hit almost anything in Israel, there’s little point to setting them up south of the Litani, where today’s strikes were focused. 6/
Nasrallah speaks at 6pm. Today might be a pressure release or an escalation. And I doubt either side really knows how it will play out. War tends to have its own logic that can be opaque even to each side. Claims either way about where this is headed can’t really be trusted 10/10
I wouldn’t put much stock in ‘the IAF successfully wiped out the longer ranged systems’ as Israel officials seem to claim. But it’s possible it deterred their limited use on this operation. 9/
However, it does stand to reason that Hezb planned to use some of these missile systems as part of their ‘conventional triad’ of rockets, missiles, and drones. And it would be reasonable to assume some were hit, disrupted or Hezb decided to save them in light of the pre-empt 7/
#Breaking
North Sea orcas among first graduates from the Orca Revolutionary Front (ORF) training camps in Iberia. Strict adherents to the 'fuck your boat,' school, the group's limited but appealing ideology appears to have jumped from regional to global.
The guided long range missile systems are the most essential - and rarely seen in action - weapons that Hezb points at Israel. Thus both sides put enormous effort into hide and seek over them. It’s unclear - and likely to remain so - how these were affected this morning. 8/
@CaralhoPhilly
@tomgara
The Thai Shrimp Mafia bought Red Lobster, announced all you can eat shrimp and sold itself the shrimp until Red Lobster collapsed and went bankrupt. Shrimp mafia turned its own shrimp into more expensive shrimp and left the bankruptcy court with the bill.
Tribute thread to the absolute worst land animal: the camel spider. just like their humped namesakes, the camel spider is filled with rage, aggression and a powerful urge to bite you. most bugs flee, the camel spider moves to contact. and they're truly hideous.
@notaterrornerd
I was on a medivac chopper that picked up some solider in falluja in anaphylactic shock from what was said to be a camel spider bite. Didn’t see the spider but something bit him cause the dude almost died in front of me
Hail the one true
#FloridaMan
who posed as a psychic and tricked one of the richest and most powerful men on earth’s assistant into FedEx’ing him over $90 million in jewelry for an ‘aura cleanse.’ Ignore all the lesser Florida men legal news today.
Ok I was really busy for the past few weeks but where are we on the current status of War Gonzo. And ok if he is alive then I have another even more pressing question about who actually got shot that looks just like him.
I'm disgusted by fake patriotic
@FoxNews
trying to divide us as a nation when the chance of smoking crack on a waterslide surrounded by hookers in a $4,000 a night Malibu luxury rental is literally what brought every immigrant with a dream to American shores since 1770.
Last summer working in Antwerp - home to the largest diamond bourse and a rather shady economy - I became aware of a worldwide hunt for at least $90 million in stolen jewels. I agreed to not begin reporting until an arrest was made. 🧵 1/10
For
@projectbrazen
I've sent last 15 months investigating northern Europe's cocaine cartels, who turned the ports of Antwerp/Rotterdam into industrial scale entry points for 100s of metric tons of coke and destabilising the safest region in Europe 🧵
The one trick big law firms don't want you to know: Just don't wear an SS uniform on stage in Berlin for any reason.
People who follow this simple rule save hundreds if not thousands of euros a year in legal fees and it drives big law crazy
Margarita Simonyan of RT, who had showered Prigozhin with praise for months and went unusually silent during his coup, claims she missed all the action because she was on a boat cruising the Volga at the time
VIDEO: A Czech company producing inflatable weapon decoys including Himars rocket launchers and Abrams tanks has seen its profits soar as the Russian invasion in Ukraine continues.
A single T-34 tank on parade in Moscow was pretty funny but I asked a NATO military official why there were no paratroopers aka the VDV aka the parade poster-children of Russian military might. Turns out Ukraine killed most of them. 1/ 🧵
So
@VICEWorldNews
sent me to Moldova to check out reports of a possible pro-Russian coup on Ukraine's western flank. I found a plot by this motley assortment of fugitive oligarchs, an ex-president under house arrest, and a notorious Russian family 🧵1/10
American citizens fund senate offices so there’s people who can brief the senator on such matters. This tweet is either a lie or a misappropriation of taxpayer money.
and now there's a triangle with the uh british council and
@bellingcat
and uh reuters and maybe soros? i can't tell. russian news is notable for having zero news about russia that doesn't involve a tank battle in 1943. this is stupid i'm going to bed prig's probably dead
Cops and Airport staff at Istanbul airport are glued to their phones trying to reach family in southern Turkey and several are in tears. Just awful day for the region.
If you said ‘Syrian Meth Drones’ in a NSC meeting around 2005, half the room would have a stroke and the other half would order air strikes on syria plus four Arab countries randomly chosen by a computer but today everyone is like meh Syrian meth drones what can you do
This is the inside story of chasing over $90 million in jewels stolen by a Florida-based psychic from one of the world's most powerful men, former Qatari PM Hamad bin Jassim al Thani, legend in both Middle East diplomacy and business circles 3/10
My job is statistically more dangerous than any US law enforcement thing, and I get it, work is dangerous and you gotta watch out. But I can never get over the sheer terror US cops show about everything. go get another gig man, risk was in the literal job description
I spent the last four months investigating law enforcement reaction and exposure to fentanyl. In many cases, officers claimed to have overdosed in ways medical experts say isn't possible.
Damaging M7.8 EQ hit southern Turkey near the Syrian border ~4am local time. PAGER is red for this event; extensive damage is probable. Our hearts go out to those affected. See
@Kandilli_info
for local info.
Elon Musk’s decision to remove free access to Twitter’s API means it will be impossible to determine whether the platform’s algorithm systematically removes harmful content.
"Pawn shop"
Personnel of Vietnam People Army checking out reserve weaponry at a storage warehouse. During peacetime, storage warehouses hold excess war materials and during mobilization, they help equip reservists, militias, etc.
A
#railway
line between
#Sevastopol
and Simferopol in
#Crimea
has been blown up. Russia’s puppet government claims it was ‘interference of unauthorized persons.’
The best part of this is the Germans knowing Ukraine did it and still having to send them tanks because everyone agrees Nord Stream very much had it coming.
@notaterrornerd
aka they're not called camel spiders because the resemble camels, they're called that because they're filled with hate and aggression like a camel
@notaterrornerd
the urban legend part was that they were meter-sized, they're only about six inches but complete assholes, most stinging bugs actually try to avoid humans. camel spiders actively try to bite you, just because they're assholes.
Thrilled that both the
@guardian
and
@thetimes
said nice things about
@ProjectBrazen
's Gateway where I tell the story of how Belgium and the Netherlands became the epicentre of Europe's cocaine trade which you can find here with new episodes each week
@notaterrornerd
I was on a medivac chopper that picked up some solider in falluja in anaphylactic shock from what was said to be a camel spider bite. Didn’t see the spider but something bit him cause the dude almost died in front of me
New England Aquarium scientists captured the rare sight of four killer whales in the waters south of Nantucket on Sunday. What made it even more remarkable was that it was the second time that day that a killer whale was spotted off the New England coast.
After last week's
@VICEWorldNews
story on the Russian-backed, US sanctioned oligarchs attempts to topple Moldova's pro-EU government, we discovered that despite repeated promises, Facebook was still selling ads for the banned party 🧵 1/4
In a report quietly released on Friday, the U.S. intelligence community acknowledged that the breadth and depth of data available for sale on the global population had begun to provide insights on par with more intrusive surveillance techniques.
North Korean engineers help design and build Hezbollah tunnel systems. The crews would stay in party owned apartment buildings in Dahiya and sometimes went out to buy smokes or whatever and very much stood out
⚡️North Korea reportedly intends to send personnel to Donbas.
North Korea’s government plans to send up to 500 soldiers or police personnel to occupied Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts “to take part in reconstruction efforts,” Daily NK, a South Korean-based newspaper, reported.
I wish folks who don't trust the MSM could spend even. few hours watching how reporters like Arman work to exhaustion for such pure reasons, while at great risk so society can know what's happing in the worst's scariest places. plus not much money and zero job security
If you put this clip in an air fryer along with 9-11 and George W Bush saying ‘watch this drive, see you in church,’ it would have more answers than I do after two decades of this bullshit lmfao
Moldova directly accuses Russia of fomenting unrest and plotting a coup just a week after Zelinskii warned of intelligence suggesting Russia planned to take control of Ukraine's western neighbour me latest for
@VICEWorldNews
Lots of good arguments for not directly engaging a nuclear armed rival. Zero good arguments for not destroying half the rivals conventional military with some wire transfers to Ukrainians willing to grind.
A Patriot system was likely damaged but not destroyed by a Russian missile barrage Monday night, a US official tells
@NatashaBertrand
. US is still assessing the damage which to determine whether the system needs to be pulled back entirely or be repaired by the Ukrainians.
Also war gonzo or not, vatnik or not, this is clearly a civilian who died trying to get a shot off during a gunfight… in a fucking trench. He sucks but I respect him
Every year Colombia trots out some new plan to deal with Pablo’s Hippos that always fails and results in more hippos. The war’s over the hippos own Colombia we just need to deal