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Mike Flannigan Profile
Mike Flannigan

@mikeflannigan

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fire guy, weather guy, researcher, professor, research chair

Kamloops
Joined September 2012
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Yikes! This is scary. Massive upper ridge over western North America. This will bring hot weather ( record breaking in many places) and if we get some wind the wildfires will wake up. Stay tuned and stay safe.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
8 months
Proud of my graduate student, Kaiwei Luo, because today his first research chapter of his PhD was published in Nature. Drought triggers and sustains overnight fires in North America.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
2 months
New paper in Nature Communications - Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season in Canada. The 2023 wildfire season in Canada was unprecedented in its scale and intensity.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Currently in Canada some nonsense is circulating that wildfires and climate change are not related. Many research efforts show that we are seeing more fires as we warm due to anthropogenic climate change including one study just published in PNAS.
@mrc_trc
Marco Turco
1 year
Our new study in @PNASNews shows that anthropogenic climate change is the major driver of the increase in summer forest fires in California, and the coming decades are likely to be worse: … #climatechange #wildfires
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Area burned is Alberta is now 1,378,739 ha that is the highest annual area burned in the 1959- 2023 record. (QC and SK are also over 1 million ha) This record number will increase as AB is on fire again today. GOES 18 - white = active fires.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 months
An abrupt increase in area burned in BC - the top 5 years for area burned in the 1950-2024 period have occurred since 2017. In order, 2023, 2018, 2017, 2024 and 2021. Of course, 2024 is not over yet. More area burned during 2017-2024 than 1950-2016. What does the future hold?
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
New paper out in @NatureClimate - Observed increases in extreme fire weather driven by atmospheric humidity and temperature. Extreme fire weather is increasing in many regions.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
8 months
Canada Under Fire – Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season preprint
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
2023 now is in first place for area burned in BC since 1950. Surprisingly, most of the fire season is ahead of us and we have already passed the recent record-breaking years of 2017 and 2018.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
6 months
Wildfires ripping today- this evening and perhaps overnight in NERN BC. Pyrotcu on fire east of Fort Nelson. Photo: Sonja Leverkus
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Currently, over 650 k ha have burned in BC thus far in 2023 and most of the fire season is ahead of us. This 650 k ha is about 30 to 60 times the average area burned for this time of year and is already the 5th highest seasonal total since 1950.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Want to hear about the 2023 fire season in Canada (thus far) and hear about wildfire and climate change? I will be giving a CMOS webinar Thursday July 13th at noon ET. Register here @CMOS_SCMO
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Area burned in BC has cracked 2 million ha in our record smashing fire season. Still 203 out of control wildfires in BC.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
New Paper-Global Change Biology. Broadleaf tree phenology and springtime wildfire occurrence in boreal Canada. Seasonality of the wildfire season is driven by the timing of greenup, whereas spring wildfire starts are related to the spring window length.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Adding some context on the recent fire activity in BC. More area has burned in BC during 2017- 2023 & years) than in the 1959-2016 period (58 years). Wow, wonder what the future holds?
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
2 months
Anomalies in annual (fire season) global means of extreme fire weather metrics (FWI95, ISI95 and VPD95) between 1979-2023. Anomalies are calculated relative to the entire period 1979-2023. Updated from continued increases in extreme fire weather
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
Wow, just wow. Massive pryocbs (fire generated thunderstorms) in BC along with dissipating regular CBs and building CBs ( see GOES loop). Reminds of 2017 but it is only June and the fire season is just beginning in BC.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Yikes! Now, Quebec is on fire. Numerous wildfires seen on GOES East mid-ir band 7 below - bright white area very active wildfires. GOES East Geocolor also attached, and you can see all the smoke plumes associated with the fires.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Currently, over 869 k ha have burned in BC thus far in 2023 and most of the fire season is ahead of us. This means 2023 is already the 3rd highest seasonal total since 1950.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
6 months
Wildfires ripping in NERN BC and SRN NWT again today with a possible pyrocb. GOES mid-ir band shows intense (white areas) and very intense (red) fires. All the wildfires burning except one (near Fort Nelson) are overwintering fires from 2023.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 months
Paraphrasing Dr. Sarah Henderson - there is good fire and there is bad fire but there is no such thing as good smoke. Lots of smoke and air quality issues today - GOES geocolor below (grey is all smoke) Purple air map below as well
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 months
The new reality of wildfire in BC. Now that area burned has passed 600,000 ha the area burned in 2017-2024 has burned more area than 1950-2016 (67 years). Of course, the 2024 fire season is far from over.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Area burned in Alberta is now in second place for the period 1959-2023. 1981 with an extraordinary hot and dry August is in first place, for now.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Incredibly active wildfire day in Alberta. Lots of communities threatened. Estimating 100,000 ha burned today and some of these fires will burn through the night. Check out the loop . Smoke is gray and some pyrocu/pyrocb - white.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
Fire weather is becoming more extreme. Using ERA5 reanalysis, the 95th percentile anomalies of the Fire Weather Index (FWI), Initial Spread Index (ISI) and Vapour Pressure Deficit (VPD) during the fire season show a striking/dramatic increase. From Dr Piyush Jain. @climate_guy
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Expect a busy week for fire activity in Canada. A massive ridge cover much of Canada keeping it warm and dry. Lightning activity means new fire starts. Wildfires very active in BC- NWT- AB- SK (GOES 18 band 7 bright white active fires). Active fires in ON and NS - not shown.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
BC area burned in 2021 is now in the top three since 1950. This means that the 3 fire seasons with the most area burned have occurred in the last 5 years ( in order 2018, 2017, 2021 though 2021 is not over yet). What will the future bring?
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
BC breaks the 2018 area burned record as 2023 hits almost 1.4 Million ha burned (period of record 1950 - 2023) that will only increase with 258 fires out of control.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
10 months
Things are upside down in North America right now - weather wise. This hour's hot spot in Canada is Pangnirtung at over 66 degrees N on Baffin Island. Take a look at the 500 mb anomaly - polar vortex over the northern US plains and warm air over the Arctic.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Alberta is on fire. GOES 18 mid-ir image below showing active fires in white in AB and SK. Loop available here Another day of extreme fire weather expected for much of Alberta tomorrow.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 months
Very active fires across NE BC, SRN NWT, NRN AB and NRN AB today. Lots of smoke and some thunderstorms that will likely ignite some new fires. Guessing 100k ha burned today and expect another active day tomorrow. GOES geocolor below- grey is smoke
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
5 months
Looking for a job in wildfire - 3 positions at a great place with great people. Canadian Forest Service - Great Lakes Forestry Centre - Sault Ste Marie
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Great new paper led by Dr. Marc Parisien, Canadian Forest Service, on Abrupt, climate-induced increase in wildfires in British Columbia since the mid-2000s
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
8 months
The 2024 fire season has begun in Alberta and now BC is joining the bandwagon. An out-of-control fire (Hasler Flats wildfire about 200 km NE Prince George) is currently eight hectares in size. The fire was discovered Friday morning. ...
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
The DMC (Duff Moisture Code) is high (dry) enough for lightning-caused fires over much western Canada. Some lightning occurring today and probably tomorrow. Some may be holdover fires (smoulder but wake up when conditions are right)
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Potential for lots of lightning-caused fire starts in BC later this week and into next week. ECMWF lightning density map for Sunday Hot dry weather = high DMC = receptive fuels (low fuel moisture) for lightning fire starts.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Yukon, NWT, BC and AB are burning. BC has 193 fires with 80 fires in the last 24 hours and 121 are out of control. GOES 19 Geocolor (pyrcu on the large fire in YK) and 3.9 micron (white = active fires) below. Lightning activity = more fires. Conducive fire conditions for 5+ days.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 months
The Canadian Fire Spread Dataset was published today. Valuable data set on daily fire spread and numerous other variables. This dataset can be used in a broad range of research and management applications.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Expect lots of wildfire activity over the next 10 days in the Northwest Territories. NWP models predict much of the region will be dry for the 10 days (ECMWF Total QPF below) and there are lots of wildfires already on the landscape
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 years
Smoke can travel 1000s of miles and some research suggests that old smoke is more toxic than fresh smoke. However, a huge dose of fresh smoke will probably be more toxic than the smaller dose of aged smoke. Bottom line, smoke is bad for you, whether it is new or old.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 months
Upper ridges (500 mb) are strongly linked to fire activity. Massive upper ridge over the NWT and lots of active fires in the NWT. GOES West geocolor below - almost everything you see is smoke.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
2 years
Great story in Maclean's.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 years
A review of machine learning applications in wildfire science and management - open access - Environmental Reviews
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
2 years
Recruitment for a tenure-track Wildland Fire Scientist in UNBC’s Ecosystem Science & Management department now begins, with applications due March 30. See
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
2 years
Congratulations to Chelene Hanes @WildfireScience who sailed through her departmental PhD defense at U of T. Her thesis is on Drought in the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. Well done.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Notice much of Quebec does not have a drought as of May 31, 2023 and the fires in QC started in earnest in early June. Highlights that drought is not a required element to have raging infernos. Though drought does increase the odds of those raging infernos.
@NOAANCEI
NOAA NCEI
1 year
Drought covered 17.4% of North America and affected 16.7% of the population of the continent at the end of May 2023:
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
'Could be in real trouble': Experts warn of possible explosion of Alberta wildfires amid hot spell via @calgaryherald
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
A crazy and rare wildfire day in Canada. Never seen a day with active fires in YK, BC, SK, MB, across ON and into QC. Just Sask - Que below - GOES East geocolor and 3.9 micron (active fires are bright white)
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
2 years
The Duff Moisture Code (DMC) is the best indicator for lightning-caused wildfire ignitions. DMC values of 30 or higher in BC is a threshold for potential ignitions. Lightning is forecast for BC and would expect at least 1 fire per 100 ltg strikes.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
PhD opportunity with Mike Wotton and I on longer range fire weather forecasting for fire management decision-making.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
Massive wildfires in Chile today - see GOES East loop. Scale in bottom right.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 month
The Editors at @NatureComms have featured our recent paper 'Drivers and Impacts of the Record-Breaking 2023 Wildfire Season in Canada ' on the Editors’ Highlights webpage in the climate change impacts section
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Perhaps, we are now starting to see increases in fire intensity due to a warming climate. This is expected though happening faster than anticipated. See Increased fire intensity will influence fire suppression effectiveness.
@DrDavePeterson
David Peterson
1 year
A large pyrocumulonimbus ( #pyroCb ) developed over a fire in #Ontario on 22 June. This brings the pyroCb total in Canada to 51, already making 2023 the most active year of the last decade. The previous benchmark was 50 pyroCbs in 2021, with only one pyroCb observed by this date.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
5 months
Great post-doc opportunity with the Canadian Forest Service in Victoria BC - see details below.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
Numerous massive fires from Alberta - NWRN ON as seen on GOES East 3.9 micron - bright white active fires. These are the extreme fire weather days responsible for most of the area burned. Probably 100k ha burning today.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 years
Why are high temperatures conducive to wildfire? If there is no rain then it allows the fuels to dry out. Higher temperatures lead to increased vapor pressure deficits (vpd) unless dewpoints increase as well. The saturation vapor pressure curve is highly non-linear
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
5 months
Congratulations to Natasha Broznitsky - BC Wildfire Service on receiving the prestigious “Early Career Award in Fire Operations” from the International Association of Wildland Fire (IAWF). Well deserved! @IAWF @BCGovFireInfo
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Conducive fire weather has shifted north to the Northwest Territories today. Three active wildfires - Firms and GOES 18 Geocolor. Notice the spatial scales on the images. Highly unusual fire activity for this time of the year.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
Congratulations to Cordy Tymstra for successfully defending his PhD thesis at the University of Alberta this afternoon. Thanks to the exam committee - Scott Rupp, Tara McGee, Vic Lieffers, Brian Stocks, Doug Woolford and Derek MacKenzie.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 months
Today reminds me of the 2023 fire situation. NPL 5 (highest level) in Canada with 589 out of control fires (238 being monitored). Unlike 2023, 2024 fire activity is orientated north-south with USA at NPL5 due to many active fires in western USA.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
Fire Research Scientist position with the Canadian Forest Service in Victoria - check it out. Maybe I should apply?
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
6 months
Want a fire weather career? Great opportunity with the Canadian Forest Service. Job posting closes April 30th.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 years
Fire Research Officer Position - Canadian Forest Service - Victoria. Closes June 8, 2021.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
From the archives, but still appropriate. We have to learn to live with wildfires and unfortunately with the smoke. The more we learn about wildfire smoke the more we find out how hazardous is it for human health.
@AdrienneLambCBC
Adrienne Lamb
1 year
Smoked Out: How wildfires are changing Canadian summers. @mikeflannigan @JWagstaffe #wildfires #AIR #smoke #Yeg
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Lots of active fires today- NERN BC, NRN AB, SK and even NWT. Some pyrocu/tcu. GOES 18 Geocolor smoke is grey and mid-ir image (bright white active fires). Expect fire activity to increase over the next few days.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
6 months
Smoke from the wildfires in NERN BC spreading into AB, SK and MB. GOES geocolor.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
The really scary part is that this may be conservative in the estimates of extreme fires.
@UNEP
UN Environment Programme
3 years
Climate change and land-use change are projected to make wildfires more frequent and intense, with a global increase of extreme fires of up to 14% by 2030, 30% by the end of 2050 and 50% by the end of the century. New UNEP- @GRIDArendal report ⤵️
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
For decades researchers have been aware that upper atmospheric ridges and the jet stream position play a significant role in wildfires. Check out our new paper on this important topic - open access at @ametsoc
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 years
Olivia Aftergood, University of Alberta/Canada Wildfire successfully defended her thesis - Identifying and analyzing spatial and temporal patterns of lightning-ignited wildfires in Western Canada from 1981-2018 on Friday Nov. 27. Congratulations!
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 months
Come work with us. Two wildfire positions at TRU - Director, TRU Wildfire (Research, Innovation, Education) & Director, TRU Wildfire (Training). Deadline July 2, 2024.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
6 months
Lots of hot spots from overwintering fires in NERN BC showing up on the firms site this afternoon. This could be a problem as a vigorous and dry cold front passes through the area on friday.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 years
Great to see fire on the landscape where it is needed.
@BanffNP
Banff National Park, Parks Canada
4 years
Last weekend, about 1,100ha of habitat was created through the Flint’s/Stoney Meadows prescribed fire. Wildlife (bighorn sheep, grizzly bears & bison) will benefit from the freshly burned grasses & newly opened meadows🌾 Learn more about prescribed fire➡️
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
5 months
Check out this new paper in Global Change Biology 'A modest increase in fire weather overcomes resistance to fire spread in recently burned boreal forests' Global Change Biology | Environmental Change Journal | Wiley Online Library
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
Perspectives on the June 2021 heatwave and wildfires by Aseem Sharma Piyush Jain, John Abatzoglou ( @climate_guy ) and @mikeflannigan . Such an event is estimated to occur only once in over 1000 years during June.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 months
What a difference a year makes! Data for number of fires and area burned for Canada as of August 8th for 2023 and 2024. Number of fires not so different but 2023 area burned is 4x that of 2024. 2024 Area burned is almost the same as the 10 year avg.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 months
Numerous large active fires in YK, BC, NWT and AB generating lots of smoke (all the grey areas). Wednesday may be explosive with an approaching cold front. GOES geocolor below and GOES mid-ir (white active and red very intense fire).
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Insane wildfire day in Alberta (historic?). After midnight MDT and many fires are still ripping. Bright white areas very active wildfires. GOES 18 loop here.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 months
Jasper fires are active today as well as some fires nearby in the Alberta foothills - see GOES West band 7 below (white active & red - very active fires). GOES geocolor also below. Potential for pyrocbs today in parts of AB & BC including these fires.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
6 months
First fire weather episode of 2024 coming to western Canada starting May 9 and lasting 5+ days (500mb anom. below). QPF for days 5-10 below. Areas of concern NERN BC NRN AB and SRN NWT.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 months
Another opportunity for a wildfire career with the Canadian Forest Service. Fire Research Analyst position at Northern Forestry Centre - deadline for applications is 5 July 2024.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
This is what happens when you have extreme heat - fuels dry out and if you have an ignition then the fire can grow rapidly. GOES West animation - fire west of Kamloops - zero to 100 in no time
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 years
Significant plume associated with a prescribed fire this afternoon at Banff National Park - GOES West visible loop attached.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
3 years
CIFFC -Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre has just gone to APL - Agency Protection Level 5 - the highest category.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 months
Pyrocbs over NERN BC - GOES 18 geocolor below. Looks like some lightning being generated by these fire generated thunderstorms.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Another assistant wildfire professor position available in BC. This time, UNBC is looking for a wildland fire scientist with broad interests in forest ecology and management.
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
8 months
If this forecast verifies...then BC might have a very active fire season...again!
@Climatologist49
Brian Brettschneider
8 months
New summer outlook just dropped from the ECMWF (SEAS5). 🔥🔥🔥
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
4 years
Smoke and more smoke as seen by GOES 17 vis - Bighorn fire near Tucson, Bush fire near Phoenix and the Mangum fire in northern AZ spreading vast amounts of smoke. If you look closely you can see smoke from 2 fires in California
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
Opportunity to come to TRU and study wildfire spread days with our team. @natureaseem @BCGovFireInfo
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
We appreciate the positive feedback we have received with respect to these wildfire updates. If you have questions you would like us to address do let us know.
@BadWeatherKyle
Kyle Brittain
1 year
Alberta Wildfire Situation - May 17th Mike Flannigan and I talk about: - Current wildfires - The widespread smoke - What could be coming next LINK: #ABfire #ABwildfires @mikeflannigan
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@mikeflannigan
Mike Flannigan
1 year
....that the impacts of climate change are making themselves felt more quickly than expected. “The new reality is that we will have more fires, more pyrocumulonimbus, more smoke, more impacts,”
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