Prof. Physics & Biology | Biophysics, epidemiology, sci-comm, climate change,
| Cats | Music | He/Him | Ashoka U | Lancet Comm| My views, not my employers,
Starting a thread with the music I like, an eclectic mix of Indian classical, world music, jazz + others. Later additions will come below [
@PMenonIFPRI
]
Alison Brown Quartet's "Under the Five Wire" from Bluegrass Underground ... via
@YouTube
I thought I was imagining it, but the commentators on Star Sports seem to agree on the general silence of the Ahmedabad crowd when an Australian player played a good shot. A Chennai or Kolkata crowd would have behaved differently, and in the true spirit of the game.
A recent paper by applied mathematicians from IIT Kanpur has led to some interest among news organisations and the public for its prediction of a fourth wave of COVID-19 starting June 22, 2022, reaching a peak on August 23 and ending on October 24
Prof. Deepak Dhar of IISER Pune (formerly of TIFR, Mumbai) has been chosen for the Boltzmann Medal, awarded once every three years by the Commission on Statistical Physics of the IUPAP. Deepak becomes the first Indian to receive this exceptional honour.
"SAY WHAT you like about Mussolini, he made the trains run on time. That was the famous last excuse for Fascism, conveying the idea that while dictatorship might not be very nice, at least it got things done." [Brian Cathcart, Independent, 03 April 1994]
#WATCH
|
#Washington
,
#DC
: On the issue of minorities in
#India
EAM Dr
#SJaishankar
says "What is the test really of fair and good governance or of the balance of a society? It would be whether in terms of the amenities, the benefits, the access, the rights, do you discriminate
I'm an alumnus and I disapprove. While I strongly favour of freedom of speech, even if disagreeable,
making this an Institute Lecture sends a message of tacit support to the message. This needn't have been done.
DoRD
#IITKanpur
, is organizing an institute lecture on 'Harvard vs IIT's'. Speakers Mr. Rajiv Malhotra and Ms. Vijaya Viswanathan will discuss the attack on IITs emanating in USA on the basis that they privilege Brahmins and oppress Dalits and minorities.
#lecture
#IIT
"States are not facing a shortage of COVID vaccines, but there is a demand-supply mismatch." (Bibek Debroy)
---
We have enough ICU beds - it's just that people are lying on them (Me)
I'd like to organize a symposium on "Why do governments hide data". No, seriously, I'd like to know what the calculation is here. I have a long list of people I'd like to invite to it. It would be a high-profile event.
The precision of these claims should raise some questions immediately. No epidemiologist with any experience would dare to make a claim that a wave is expected to start *on X day*, four months into the future.
This is, of course, the height of silliness, the idea that stopping flights to Delhi would have miraculously stopped Omicron spread. No country is an island; no country can stay one forever. Get real.
I'm actually very concerned about Omicron and India. The spike of related cases in Denmark, the rise in hospitalisations in Gauteng, the huge increase in test positivity in SA, from about 2% to 25% in about 2 weeks, none of this seems positive.
Imparting words of wisdom, Gurudev Sri Sri Ravi Shankar Ji will be conducting a national induction for the first-year students of all the national institutes of importance.
Watch him live on Art of Living's Youtube channel at 6:00 pm on 11 Nov, 2022.
#induction
#iitkstudents
After more than a week, when no one from
#UttarPradesh
came forward to stand surety for
#Kerala
scribe
#SiddiqueKappan
following the bail granted by SC in UAPA case, former VC of University of Lucknow,
#RoopRekhaVerma
has volunteered to stand as surety to fulfill court conditions
The methods used are purely statistical. The available data is fit using a sum of simple Gaussian functions, using machine learning methods. The data ‘learnt from’, a requirement here for the methods to work, is from Zimbabwe, which had four COVID-19 waves.
Why Zimbabwe? Because Zimbabwe and India have “maximum visible similarities in the shape of the COVID waves”
This is not a particularly scientific way to proceed.
I noticed that in the list of 'rationalised' content in textbooks for Class X, the periodic table has been dropped.
This makes as little sense as the dropping of the material on evolution.
Who exactly was on the committee that decided this?
So the worry over this ‘prediction’ is overblown. No mathematical model is - or can be - as prescient as this would require.
Nothing to see here, folks. Move on.
My colleague and friend for more than 2 decades, R Ramanujam ("Jam") of
@IMScChennai
retires today. He was awarded the Indira Gandhi Prize for popularization of science for 2020.
I summarize what we know and don't know about COVID-19 in India, arguing for transparency as well as explaining why this is particularly crucial right now
The Novel Coronavirus Variants and India’s Uncertain Future via
@TheWireScience
Should one trust this model at all? The answer, simply, is no
Epidemiology is not an exact science in the sense that physics is, or chemistry. The waves of COVID-19 in India have been driven by variants: the original strain and its major descendants, Delta and Omicron.
The fact that this person continues to be the chair of the NCW boggles the mind. Not to mention the fact that Brij Bhushan Singh continues as a member of parliament, as does Ramesh Bidhuri.
There's little that could defame my country more.
Did you ever report the incident to Police? If not than you are totally an irresponsible person. Writing only on social media and defaming whole country is not good choice.
Seriously? 2 of 3 are cardiac specialists perpetually on TV and none of them is an expert on infectious diseases. What happened to the epidemiologists, the head of NCDC, the head of NIE ....?
ADVISORY: At 5PM today, Dr Randeep Guleria Director AIIMS Delhi, Dr Devi Shetty, Chairman, Narayana Health and Dr Naresh Trehan, Chairman, Medanta will together address issues related to
#COVID19
in the country. The address will be uplinked/streamed by ANI
A prominent Indian institution will not pay for prospective PhD students to travel to their city for an interview, an exception only being made for candidates in a reserved category.
Reason: Financial difficulties
The twist - this is a (public) Institute of Eminence.
Your daily dose of senseless bureaucracy - for a sufficiently senior scientist/doctor/professor in any government funded organization or institute in India to participate in an *online* international conference will need special clearance from Ministry of External Affairs.
Points I made on
@rahulkanwal
's show tonight, regarding exiting lockdowns:
1. Normalize mask wearing
2. Make testing more widely accessible. Use many more RATs
3. Increase vaccinations to 12-12M/day. Prioritize elderly and at risk
4. Pay attention to ventilation.
This is the second of two announcements for the day: A group of modellers, including me, at INDSCICOV, have just released our extensive, state-level compartmental model for COVID-19 spread in India. A detailed description and results are at:
Why should Zimbabwe and India be different? Zimbabwe, as of a few days ago, had managed to vaccinate 40% of its eligible population, mainly with the Chinese vaccine Sinopharm. The analogous number for India is 75% or more.
The Omicron wave was relatively mild. Most Indians had been exposed to the virus in the preceding two waves, in particular the Delta wave. Along with that, vaccinations added a further level of protection, contributing to what is called hybrid immunity.
@MundoliSeema
I just heard from my mother in Kerala that the Councillor in each ward was taking the responsibility of coordinating the vaccines for senior citizens. Such a wonderful thing to do
"Every three and a half minutes .. an Indian citizen is killed in a traffic accident. That adds up to 150,000 people a year. But in all likelihood, the carnage is much worse: the World Health Organisation (WHO) thinks there are 300,000"[Economist]
The owner of the CCTV has monetized his entire YouTube channel based on this just one CCTV located at a junction where accidents take place pretty much everyday. He calla this location as "The Bermuda Triangle" and it totally makes sense 🤣
#RoadSafety
In the lead Op Ed in the Hindu today,
@GKangInd
and I write about the lack of publicly available data on the pandemic from Government sources, particularly in regard to testing ..
Reflections on flying blind into the storm
This thread is about the SUTRA model, a epidemiological model funded by the DST (India) to describe the Indian COVID-19 pandemic. In recent weeks it has been suggested that it provides an explanation for the “success” of the UP government in handling COVID-19 (1/n)
This is not my understanding of the Hippocratic oath that all physicians take.
For those who forget history, many doctors in the Nazi regime took a similar position.
Sorry Doctor
@SinghSwaiman
not this time.
Meeting held with the medical staff of my hospital in Delhi. We have decided not to provide any treatment to rioters who are attacking our police forces and trying to burn my country.
Appealing to the other hospital and healthcare
None of these could have been anticipated in advance. No one is able to do that. Modelling can provide helpful estimates, but must rely on accurate inputs for their predictions to be trustable. They are more useful for broad policy than highly specific predictions of numbers
The Print's article "Nagaland bats, Wuhan’s ‘Bat Lady’, US defence funds, lost ICMR probe - India’s virus mystery" is such a farrago of distortions, misunderstandings and misinterpretations that I will not dignify it by linking it here. I'm just surprised that it was published.
That’s just one part of it. The median age in Zimbabwe is close to 19. For India it is close to 30. The impact of COVID-19 in every respect - cases, ICU-requirements, deaths - are primarily driven by age.
An important point:
"When many of a job’s rewards are non-monetary, that job tends to be done by people for whom cash is not a concern.""
People from elite backgrounds increasingly dominate academia, data shows
"While UPI is impressive, is the true mark of development that you can actually walk on a road, breathe clean air and not have to face ungodly decibels of noise or that you can order butter chicken from across town in 30 mins on Zomato?"
[A friend]
Amit's (
@amitvarma
) gentle and conversational technique of interviewing reveals parts of me that even I had never thought deeply about or integrated together. It's long, but good conversations usually are. Very grateful to him.
I've learnt so much about Covid-19 from reading Gautam Menon (
@MenonBioPhysics
), whose work straddles biology, physics & math.
He joins me in episode 224 of The Seen and the Unseen to discuss the nuances of modeling, the joys of science & Kumar Gandharva:
People are writing too many papers because current incentive structures favour numbers, not quality. Good reviewers - who also work for free - are strained to the extreme. This isn't sustainable.
@ArindamPhysics
I actually don't agree with this, Arindam. I think, especially In the Indian context, a supervisor is the most important figure in a graduate students life. A lack of early mentorship can make a huge difference. A good student can recover, but at a great cost.
Excited to join the
@PLOSGPH
Editorial Board, a new
#OpenScience
journal for public health research that broadens the range of global perspectives we learn from to advance the health of all humankind.
I don't like to give such misleading claims any airtime, but - as usual for any COVID-19 related claims from Prashant Bhushan - this unmitigated nonsense deserves to be called out. Vaccines are safe and work very well at protecting you from disease, mild and especially severe.
Wow! We were that vaccine would protect us from Covid. Then we were told that it would at least protect us from hospitalization & death. When data showed that vaxed people are just as likely to get Covid, get hospitalized& die as unvaxed, we're told to get booster every 5 months!
There is no polite way to say this: those who deal in hate and communalism, under the guise of religion or otherwise, strike at the foundations of our society, the principles of our constitution as well as our common humanity. They belong in jail, all of them.
A Thread with **TRIGGER WARNING***
A three day hate speech conclave was organized by hate monger Yati Narsinghanand. At the event, multiple calls to k!ll minorities and attack their religious spaces were made.
#HaridwarHateAssembly
Thread 👇
I guess I'm not a lawyer for a very good reason.
I can't figure out how they could be remanded to a further 10 days of custody on the basis of an FIR that makes no sense at all.
A young Rashid Khan with my parents, on the occasion of a concert he gave to benefit Raksha, the school for differently abled children that my parents started in Kochi. This must be from about 20 years ago.
Tony Joseph
@tjoseph0010
remains polite in a situation where lesser men would have blown a gasket. He does have the advantage of being absolutely right, though, so can afford to.
@tjoseph0010
Tony your book is not any academic paper nor are you a scientist!You choose what papers you want and wrote that book to prove your narrative.A selective writing of a book is not Science.there are other scientific views and data! Have that debate with
@AbhijitChavda
One can hope for the following: Even if antibodies wave, the fact of a number of exposures to different variants as well as vaccinations should protect against any new variant through hybrid immunity. That is as much as we can hope.
No deaths have been reported due to manual scavenging and there are no reports of people engaged in manual scavenging in the country, the Centre informed
#LokSabha
Ventilation may be the most neglected NPI. Here's
the agarbatti test:
Expert Explains: Role of ventilation in preventing Covid transmission via
@IndianExpress
This is the first of two announcements, for today, from the groups I work with: Ashoka University and ThoughtWorks today announced a research collaboration to develop the first ultra-large-scale agent-based simulation model for the spread of COVID-19 in India.
"According to Malhotra and Vishwanathan, if you care about social justice, you must be a Marxist. If inequality concerns you, you must be “woke”. If freedom of speech is important to you, you must be channeling foreign thinkers .."
I mentioned this to a colleague today and they were blown away by this: If I were to manifest every symptom of COVID-19 (the fever, cough, breathing difficulties, .. what have you) and asked to be tested ... I would not be eligible! (1/5)
My physics students made me this for Teachers Day, together with a charming thank-you note which also said "hoping to feature in your tweets".
I had to oblige!
I have an Arnab Goswami joke but if I told it to you you might say: THE SUDDENNESS! THE SHEER SUDDENNESS OF THE MOVE! THE UNEXPECTED NATURE OF THE MOVE! THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF THE MOVE! THE FACT THAT THERE WAS NO WARNING!
Once the fog clears, this is the truth:
“All colonised people see themselves in Palestine. They see some aspect of what was done to them, in Palestine. And all colonisers see themselves in Israel.”
Although I am a great admirer of Atul Gawande's writings, the absence of the moral courage and conscience he shows in those is particular striking in this interaction
Watch:
Yesterday, at a DC event on “the critical importance of supporting and safeguarding health workers,” USAID rep Dr. Atul Gawande struggled to respond when activists asked him to condemn the US-funded Israeli assault on Gaza, which has killed scores of health-workers.
THREAD:
Update on B.1.617 ("India") variant in England using latest data from the Sanger institute.
This data *excludes* sequenced cases from travellers & surge testing so "should be an approximately random sample of positive tests in the community"
TLDR: warning signs! 1/10
This is a milestone. India has now crossed our previous peak of a little less than 98,000daily cases. The test-positivity is at an unhealthy 7.7%. In Maharashtra this exceeds 20%. Cases are growing at above 5%. This new wave is spreading across the country.
The life of C R Rao, not particularly well known to the public at large, but likely India's most influential scientist post-independence
C.R. Rao: A Life in Statistics I via
@YouTube
5. Make data more accessible for study and modeling. Improve its quality.
6. Address hesitancy, for tests and vaccines
7. Avoid lock-down theatre. Concentrate on what works based on evidence. For example, keep shops open longer but regulate numbers of people in them at a time
Director of an IIT. Why is Himachal having landslides? Because of unplanned construction/deforestation/climate change/all of the above? No. Because of meat-eating.
Is he saying farming animals leads to deforestation? No. He says it leads to cloudbursts.
My child washed dishes on a low-paying job when studying abroad. I was thrilled with this. As someone who studied throughout in India, I regret now that I did not have similar opportunities. It would have taught me a lot, lessons it took time to learn later.
Replies to my comment show how profoundly foreign this ordinary thing is to Indians. Dishwashing in a restaurant over the summer was my first job as a young teen. My dad had trouble with it (being from India), but all my friends had such jobs. No one was ashamed of it.
I write here, with appropriate and abundant caution, about likely possibilities for the COVID-19 trajectory in India from now on.
Are We Finally Seeing a Light at the End of India’s COVID-19 Tunnel? via
@TheWireScience
@LiveLawIndia
Why is the UP government not seizing the SGs property for such a blatantly anti-national statement intended only to defame the UP goverment. I demand exemplary punlshment.
Breaking: High drama at parliament IT standing committee meet meant to discuss Pegasus. BJP members attend but refuse to sign register so no quorum. Telecom/home ministry officials also asked to stay away. Committee is headed by Cong MP
@ShashiTharoor
, includes
@MahuaMoitra
"Whenever an entrance examination is instituted in a scientific discipline, it invariably becomes an exercise in mathematics…. Why is there such a focus on mathematics? In reality, the trend toward mathematization turns our graduates, our future engineers, into hemiplegics…. :
I have huge respect for
@pbhushan1
. But, I'd strongly advise him not to make statements of this kind which can only hinder India's struggle to vaccinate even the most vulnerable. This is the nth time he is making such irresponsible statements on
#COVID19vaccines
.
I don't know what to say. One usually has faith in young people, their idealism and sense of justice. (The student-led demonstrations across the world against the genocide of the Palestinians are one example.)
But this lot?