#Bitcoin
price action is looking VERY encouraging, which bodes well for the wider
#Crypto
market.
We completed a small wave 1 from the long held ascending parallel channel, then wave 2 correction followed by wave 3 to exactly 1.618 x wave 1.
We now have modest wave 4 correction
'Permabulls' who feed on 'Hopium' may hate the inference here.
I am presenting evidence, the interpretation of which may be disputed but please do so with proper reasoning and explanation as to why I MAY be wrong.
#DXY
corrected down and
#Dollar
may well have turned to the upside
im Bullish but short term very cautious as I see substantial risk of a corrective pullback across most of crypto.
Pls use sensible risk reward to protect profits.
#TON
is just a proxy for
#Crypto
as I believe we will see correlation across risk assets
Bearish Divergence evident
A more detailed look at
#JASMY
targets wave 5 of just over $JASMY 0.0303
FIB extensions work out nicely with good wave structure on two fractals
At this stage we cannot reasonably determine whether the 5 waves make up larger wave 1 OR wave A as part of a large zigzag correction
Preferred EW count for
#Bitcoin
now expects a further small leg down to complete the ABC correction shown. The reason being, that SO FAR the move up from the A wave is overlapping and not impulsive (though this could change and will need to be monitored)
Following correction we
#SEC
DOES 180 DEGREE TURN
Odds of a regulated spot
#ETH
ETF jumped from 11% this morning to over 75% now.
If this happens it's very Bullish - as shown by those massive green candles..
The whole corrective move down called for todays impulsive price action
#JASMY
fans will be pleased to see $JASMY has been selected as a participant within the
#Evai
Pro Frontier Efficient Portfolio.
Totally unbiased using Ai technology, this is the theoretical optimal portfolio constructed from the 20,000+ assets available
#DXY
has dropped dramatically in inverse correlation to risk assets including
#BTC
Potentially, the modest weakening of US economy is resulting in reduced upward pressure on interest rates - hence the recent $BTC appreciation.
#Dollar
will be front and centre with upcoming
#CPI
US
#Dollar
is taking the PCE & spending data as -VE with a sharp
#DXY
selloff so far.
If this move is sustained then its +ve risk assets
#BTC
etc.
I believe the market will stabilise and await further news to support a real move
#ICP
is showing some regular Bullish Divergence AND we are approaching a robust support zone. A real retest of support should provide opportunities to DCA with very good risk reward ratio.
Great potential for a solid $ICP rally coming soon imo
$BTC 74,765 is a great immediate (minimum) short term target for
#BTC
, being 100% extension of wave A transposed to the end of wave B to project wave C
The Triangle interpretation is still perfectly valid for
#BTC
and if price does fall towards the E wave, may provide good risk/reward for DCA opportunities in expectation of a Thrust higher which incidentally would inversely correlate with the weakening
#Dollar
Raising $2 million,
#BOME
became the fastest
#Crypto
to a $1 billion market cap.
#BookofMemes
aims to create a digital "Book of Meme," a permanent record of internet memes on the blockchain, preserving meme history.
Not strictly a
#MEME
, $BOME has great risk/reward metrics,
Minor additional pullback expected for
#XRP
before we rally substantially higher in the C wave.
$XRP rally correlate with a solid positivity across most
#Crypto
,
But if the triangle interpretation is correct, remember, Triangles are pre terminal waves followed by an aggressive
Frustrated with the long
#BTC
consolidation?
Patience will eventually pay off.
The $BTC triangle pattern shown is a continuation pattern and as such will eventually break higher.
It could also be a simple ABC correction which will also end with a break higher
#SOL
in the process of a large ABC correction down before higher again.
Wave C is in progress, so far with wave 1 down and 2 up with 3,4,5 to complete the correction.
Once again, the longer term impulsive direction appears higher and so pullbacks are DCA opportunities imo.
Exploring the
#BTC
options & alternates !
Remember there are no certainties in trading, just possibilities that each have a probability.
A definite possibility for
#Bitcoin
with a fairly high probability is for C wave pullback to the $BTC 65k region, before higher again.
#ETH
is likely in the midst of an expanded flat correction taking price a little lower before the next powerful upside impulse.
Economic data has been tepid lately and not able to initiate any decent price action but perhaps
#NFPs
on 7th June
#CPI
12th or will give us the boost
#DXY
should tell us directly where markets are headed when we see the
#Dollar
reaction to tomorrows
#CPI
and
#FOMC
rate setting meeting.
There is now certainty. There is a genuine risk of higher
#Inflation
which would be +ve $ and -ve risk assets inc
#BTC
Its also possible we
There is palpable FEAR in the markets (even evident in
#BTC
here) ahead of
#CPI
numbers tomorrow.
A miss on expectations either way can drive $BTC to new ATH OR continue the correction towards the Y wave below.
Long term outlook is still +ve though and new ATH should come soon.
#TON
has been a major gainer of late and has been highlighted in advance on my daily
@ImpactMoney
show appearances.
Be aware that we MAY be due a pullback correction from the recent high in the form of C wave.
Following the short +ve weekend consolidation
#Cardano
, which has wide
#Crypto
market correlation shows $ADA in downward price continuation.
#ADA
likely has further downside before we enter the next Bullish impulsive phase to the upside.
#ETH
completed a textbook impulsive wave 3 to the upside in the run up to the
#ETF
decision. Now working on a corrective wave 4 before we should have another impulsive 5th wave to create a new local high. GDP & PCE numbers today and tomorrow will be the likely price drivers
THIS IS WHY CRYPTO PRICES HAVE STAGNATED.
Same overall market-cap, spread across more and more and more
#Crypto
Even
#BTC
market cap has hardly increased.
We need an increase in liquidity AND increase in
#BTC
and
#Altcoin
adoption to give the market the next leg up
#BTC
wavecount and outlook aligns nicely with
#ETH
as would be expected with the high degree of correlation between the two.
The charts appear impulsive to the upside with higher highs and higher lows and the fundamental news is +ve.
A great time for
#Hodlers
as we target
#ATHs
The circled area of price is very typical of consolidation before continuation of the uptrend that is still in place for
#BTC
Today we have a speech by
#FED
chair JeromePowell which MAY be more Dovish, giving
#Crypto
and risk assets some "fuel" for a pump
There is a real chance for
#JASMY
to extend higher, now that the correction appears complete with three waves down. An impulsive five wave rally should now take $JASMY beyond the previous local high of 0.04470
#PCE
in line with expectations.
Market may be slightly relieved that it wasn't worse.
Personal spending down a little.
This is not ideal, persistently sticky inflation with spending down and so spectre of stagflation looming. Short term +ve
#BTC
but should be relatively neutral
I know that there were serious doubters yesterday but the proposed wavecount is working out with the b wave and now working on the c wave down to complete the
#BTC
correction.
This should provide further DCA opportunities IMO.
Patience is a very rare and precious commodity!
Long time since we charted
#ONEHARMONY
,
Nothing has changed.
#ONE
is carried by the market but apparently has little 'organic' activity. Volume is mainly from
#MarketMaker
activity and as such can still be traded for speculation but there has been no +ve progress as far Im aware
#Bitcoin
'flying' lately and is close to challenging the previous ATH.
We could of course pump through the $BTC ATH like a knife through butter BUT this is a time for caution. Greed is at extreme levels and the previous ATH is resistance.
Long term Higher, short term caution imo
Sentiment had been decidedly negative regarding
#ETH
chances of spot
#ETF
approval – with the market implied odds according on
@Polymarket
indicating just an 11% chance of approval this morning – but this probability now stands above 50% for the first time since January.
What a
The preferred EW count for
#BTC
still calls for more downside to $BTC 65k as a minimum without crossing the dotted red line.
If we cross below red line then a deeper retracement would be expected.
Much depends on GDP and PCE figures Thurs & Fri
#Bitcoin
on the move.
#MtGox
appears to have transferred at least 42,830
#BTC
to an unknown address on Tuesday morning in Asia, according to data from Arkham Intelligence.
This was the first time in five years that Mt. Gox moved assets out of its wallets.
#BTC
is showing a beautiful example of WXY correction, also known as a 'double 3' correction where two sets of 3 wave corrections are connected by an X wave.
This tells me that CPI is likely to be SOFT with potential to push
#Crypto
and $BTC higher
Personal Consumption Expenditure
The BIG NEWS out Friday 31st May
The
#FEDs
preferred measure of
#Inflation
will definitely impact their interest rate deliberations into the next
#FOMC
rate setting meeting.
My bet goes against the majority - I expect weaker
#PCE
+ve
#BTC
Lets see
DO WE REALLY WANT INSTITUTIONAL ADOPTION OF CRYPTO?
“The financial system is very often a wealth extraction mechanism. It is not a wealth creation system for the many
But a wealth extraction mechanism for the few FROM the many.”
A great example of Hidden Bullish Divergence, which supports the Bull case for
#SOL
$SOL looks to be working through a large 'zigzag' correction which should ultimately resolve HIGHER for the new retail chain of choice !
#Solana
along with most other
#Crypto
is long term
Those who follow, especially on the
@ImpactMoney
show, know that I have had this red line target for
#SPX
S&P500 for weeks now.
As you see price touched the line and reversed sharply. Not to say it won't be broken but this was a perfect Risk/Reward area to take and protect trades
It looks to me as though we need one more wave down to complete the
#BTC
correction BEFORE we head higher to a new ATH.
This would break the ascending parallel channel support but so be it! I cannot count the correction as complete at this stage!
We indicated in advance that the
#SOL
correction was likely an incomplete corrective structure from an
#ElliottWave
perspective.
There is a high probability that we will see lower $SOL to target zone indicated and IF achieved should present an amazing DCA opportunity imo
This is a look at
#BTC
using FIB Time Zones.
Not at all sure if its useful, although the internal waves of the triangle do coincide with midpoints or terminals of the Fib zones.
Any use?
We now have confirmation that the move up from what is now labelled A was just part of a larger correction for
#ETH
The logical $ETH target would be $2,692 before POWERFUL recovery begins in an IMPULSIVE 5th wave to the upside
From
@Polymarket
, the chances of
#ETH
hitting $ETH 4k by Friday dropped from 59% yesterday to 43% today.
If or when the spot
#Ethereum
#ETF
is approved then many of the anti
#Crypo
gang will be fast running out of obstacles to throw in the way of decentralisation and
#Gold
is in the 'spotlight' having completed a very rare running flat formation, which is a continuation pattern in a Bull market in this case.
b goes higher than the origin of a and c falls short of the end of a
This is Bullish $Gold
Be aware of the possibilities and this is a genuine possibility with a fair degree of probability for
#SOL
From the local high around $SOL 210 we have 5 waves down and 3 up, so we should complete a further 5 waves down to complete the Zigzag correction. That's DCA territory imo
Short term view of
#ICP
looks constructive with a SOLID support zone underpinning price.
The 2.618 target seems logical as it intersects the overhead channel from previous price extremes.
We will look at medium and long term expectations later for $ICP
#DXY
is now at support.
Unlike the move up which was corrective (indicated by overlapping circled price action) This move down appears impulsive and so it is hoped that the
#Dollar
is at long last turning down which is good for
#BTC
#ETH
#Crypto
and other risk assets
Some caution required in the short term for
#BTC
where we have 5 waves down from the local high. Therefore expect this is an A wave, to be followed by B slightly higher, then C wave a little lower to complete the correction before higher to new ATH
Overall Constructive!
#Evai
All about timescales:
Lots of discussion around the
#DXY
This is
#Dollar
Index since the stock market crash of 1987 (which I traded through)
Since the crash of 2008, US$ has been in a parallel rising trend. We are now in the middle of the channel with the next macro move likely
This is the alternate
#BTC
(shorter) triangle with wave E already complete and the terminal thrust underway. The overshoot for wave E is allowable (E being the only wave that can over or undershoot the trendiness)
#Cryptos
are at various overhead resistance levels awaiting a break and at the same time
#DXY
is sitting on support needing a break to the downside to support that pump for risk assets.
#FED
Chair Jerome Powell speaking tonight MAY give is the impetus - lets hope so
May 23 important developments at a glance
FIT21, MetaMask, BlackRock, ETFs
1. The US House of Representatives passed the FIT21 cryptocurrency bill;
2. Fed officials expect to wait longer to cut rates
3. Insider: MetaMask will integrate native Bitcoin;
4. Cancel pledge programs or
Our parallel channel held well and we have see a nice reaction higher with
#BTC
now over $BTC 60k
A daily close above this level would be very +ve as we target the previous ATH and beyond in this next impulsive phase
Halving may not be significant from a
#BTC
price perspective but the “Quad Witching” event last Fri 21st June, where multiple futures and options expire, probably was.
A quad yearly liquidity event where historically we can identify major pivot areas for
#Bitcoin
price action.
#LTC
remains trapped by the overhead resistance that has so far been tested and failed.
This level that was defined by the previous A wave down is key to future price action depending on whether it is broken or not.
Lets hope we get follow through and a break higher off the back
Market is waiting for
#PCE
this Friday 28th.
The
#FEDs
preferred measure of inflation.
I expect a lower than expected read which should turn
#BTC
#Crypto
#Altcoins
and other risk assets higher imo.
#SOL
downside correction MAY POSSIBLY be complete, as the 5th wave has exceeded the 3rd wave
DCA was appropriate at points below the 3rd wave termination.
DCA and NOT all in because there is certainly POTENTIAL for lower, though im hopeful
#XRP
is on a real tare today.
Looks like the Y wave of the correction finished just a fraction earlier than expected and the next impulse to the upside appears to have begun.
We have said all along that $XRP can surprise will aggressive volatile moves.
#Ethereum
extended a little higher yesterday and turned whilst we still had some Hidden Bearish Divergence in place.
We were probably overdue a modest pullback to correct the overbought RSI situation.
Hopefully as RSI declines we will set up for the next $ETH run higher
The
#DXY
price action from the top down does NOT fit an impulsive price structure.
THIS IS CORRECTIVE, lower lows and lower highs with extensive overlapping.
IF this represents impulsive price action then its time to give up on EW analysis imo
Still various options available for a valid
#BTC
wavecount - mostly Bullish.
We could have 1,2 1,2 $BTC nesting OR leading diagonal followed by the beginning of 3rd wave higher.
Either way I remain hopeful that the current low is in place at the base of the parallel channel 🚀
#DXY
is falling, as per expectation.
This still appears corrective with lower highs and lower lows, most likely forming a double three WXY correction down before higher AND THEN much lower to spur a REAL
#Crypto
rally for
#BTC
#ETH
and other
#ALTS
Plenty of information to be gleaned from the
#SOL
chart.
Perfect $SOL Regular Bearish Divergence signalled the beginning of the EW 5th wave down.
That 5th wave appears incomplete as it is not a 5 wave structure - YET.
Patience and confirmation is required
#LTC
correction may well have completed and an impulsive wave higher begun.
The market is highly correlated and if we see
#BTC
push through its ATH (as expected) then $LTC should respond accordingly.
Evidence is growing of the need for the
#FED
to relax monetary policy by lowering interest rates. If these expectations for Durable Goods Orders are born out today then it shows the economy contracting and in need of "help"
#GDP
is also expected to fall sharply!
Ironically this
Another great entry point for
#SOL
identified and posted days in advance, can now be protected for guaranteed profit and allowed to run with massive zero risk potential!
At the time we used a combination of Elliott Wave with a Divergence signal and confirmatory Candle formation
We actually have some mild regular Bullish Divergence in place for
#SOL
and coupled with the fact that we have not pushed below the 1.618
#FIB
extension gives me some confidence that $SOL is ready to rally.
Of course do your own DD but this is a good area for risk/reward IMO
We have hit my initial
#BTC
downside target, but it is TOO EARLY to be sure that the bottom is in - Do not try to catch a falling knife!
We have important NFP numbers this evening and also Mt Gox
#Bitcoin
sales have not hit the market yet - so be cautious and await confirmation
Nothing changed here on
#DXY
labelling.
#Dollar
has fallen sharply according to our expectation (following weaker PCE Friday) and given us the beginnings of a nice rally in
#BTC
#Altcoins
etc.
Should the $ continue to decline, then the
#Crypto
rally can extend much further.
Happy Monday! Curious about
#evai
hot picks in the crypto world?
Here are the shakers and movers in the past 24 hours, powered by our AI Crypto ratings:
❇️
#Bitcoin
maintained its AAA rating, as its trading volume increased by 112.80% and its price rose by 4.38%.
❇️
#Polygon
No doubt FED chair Powell will have sight of
#CPI
#Inflation
due out Thursday in his Speech tomorrow. These inflation numbers do have real potential to move
#BTC
&
#Crypto
as we continue to see price pressures subside
We need to be aware that
#BTC
may just retest the lower boundary of the long held ascending parallel channel and potentially be rejected around the $BTC 60k area at what has now turned to become overhead resistance
In search of a Crypto asset that is increasing despite the market turmoil? - look to
#Evai
available on Pancakeswap.
Plenty of major developments around the corner and those in the know may be DCA positioning ahead of a potential rise. 25% + in 24hrs, 55% + in a week.
The correction has proved to be more complex with
#JASMY
(but a correction was expected)
A logical end to the correction would now be $JASMY 0.02577 where c = a
This would take RSI into oversold territory and leave JASMY primed for a decent bounce higher
3iQ Digital Asset Management has filed for a
#SOL
exchange-traded product (ETP) to be listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange. It would provide investor exposure to Solana's digital currency, $SOL, offering daily price movements, long-term capital appreciation, and staking yield.
Elliott Wave gained popularity in the 1970s through the work of A.J. Frost and Robert Prechter.
In the "Elliott Wave Principle: Key to Market Behavior," the authors predicted the Bull Market of the 1980s.
Prechter would later issue a sell recommendation days before the crash of
We should still have a bit higher to go for
#BTC
in this cycle before a modest correction, then higher again.
It would be dangerous to be caught short $BTC at this stage as new ATH should not be too far away
Beautifully Bullish chart for
#ICP
but, this particular cycle is nearing its end. We have a little higher before a modest correction then aggressively higher again IMO.
Most
#Crypto
charts aligning in this way.
Retail interest is at multi yr low. That's a BIG mistake IMO. $ICP 🚀
#BTC
price has progressed exactly according to expectation and even the final 5th wave of this cycle is breaking down perfectly as 5 waves with an ideal target of $BTC 69k
#XRP
is still "coiling" in the form of a correction and may be driven lower short term before a powerful spring higher is anticipated.
Possible elevated CPI on Wednesday could depress $XRP but long term Hodlers will likely be rewarded when interest rates eventually begin to
This is potentially the most IMPORTANT
#BITCOIN
chart you will ever see!
POTENTIALLY from
#BTC
creation until now is a massive ABC formation in the Elliott wave form 5,3,5 Zigzag family
Target $BTC 84,000
Followed by potential CRASH
#Ethereum
showing very clear Regular Bearish Divergence here, which is indicative of a fifth wave.
Whilst we still expect a little higher, this impulse is fast running out of steam and will likely give way to correction around the time of the
#ETF
going live, most likely
The support zone with
#LINK
which may act as an area for potential DCA with sensible stops below.
However
#RSI
is not oversold and so there is reasonable scope for lower.
Patience is the order of the day and ultimately we may need to wait for PCE numbers Friday to give direction
So far this looks like a fair representation of the EW structure for
#DXY
The move up in
#Dollar
from Fridays data seems extreme but perhaps there are rumours circulating about the
#CPI
numbers due Wednesday.
IF
#Inflation
remains elevated the
#FED
will not lower
#InterestRates
#FED
delivered
#FUD
: Fear-Uncertainty-Doubt
We should actually be calling them THE FUD.
What of their MANDATE..?
FEAR - of elevated Inflation
UNCERTAINTY - about employment
DOUBT - over economic stability
Following the next financial crisis
#BTC
will shine as Digital Gold
We have said for some time that
#GOLD
should have another leg down before higher to new ATH.
We see here the similarities between the two corrective phases that should be followed again by downwards movement that appears to have already begun.
Regular Bearish Divergence showing the way.
#DXY
turned precisely on the Divergence signal but we likely still have higher to go, based on macroeconomic data beginning to soften.
#FED
chair Jerome Powell has been intimating that lower
#InterestRates
should come soon i.e. +ve
#BTC
I believe that this is what the market is waiting for.
#CPI
#BTC
#ETH
#Crypto
and most risk assets are treading water ahead of important
#Inflation
data due today.
Weaker than expected should prompt a market pump and vice-versa
We actually have some mild regular Bullish Divergence in place for
#SOL
and coupled with the fact that we have not pushed below the 1.618
#FIB
extension gives me some confidence that $SOL is ready to rally.
Of course do your own DD but this is a good area for risk/reward IMO
From the
#FTX
low around $BTC 15,500 back in Nov 2022 price has been contained within an ascending channel and MAY be about to push higher following a clear 3 wave correction from the ATH.
#BTC
is looking constructive from around these levels with good risk/reward ratio for DCA
PICK OF THE DAY
#RLB
looks like a Buy with around 30% upside target.
Im assuming the parallel channel holds as it has for the past 8 months.
The correction could of course be complete, indicating an upside potential break above channel.
Risk reward looks +ve imo
Target for
#BTC
being the 100% extension of the W wave down, transposed to the top of the proposed X wave.
There is however some uncertainty as is always the case with corrections, with the possibility that the X wave higher is not yet complete. Either way we should go up soon