I heard all this bullshit back in '99. "You don't get it." "This is the future." "It's a new paradigm."
Want to guess what happened to those people?
They got destroyed. I'm not talking down 30%, down 50%. I'm talking sell your house and start over in life.
@AstonMartinF1
@lance_stroll
What a meaningless “statistic” given the changes in points systems over the years. Are we really supposed to believe he achieved something greater than Villenueve?
On what planet is $tsla worth half as much as $goog
No position in Tesla. Just observing the total absurdity of a subscale car manufacturer closing in on the valuation of one of the most dominant money printing machines in the history of capitalism
Guys I am on board
It’s a store of value
There’s a finite quantity
Gov’ts can’t print it
Poor people need it
Environmentalists criticize it, but it’s rapidly getting cleaner
There is a wave of institutional investors getting more comfortable with it
WTI
A mistake I saw over and over again in 2000/01 was someone who owned tech shitcos would say “I can’t sell now I’m already down X percent”, and they proceeded to get destroyed in a way that would have seemed impossible a couple years before
Let me tell you the type of stuff I saw in 2000-01-02 in retail in San Francisco.
Shit you would not believe.
People going from $2mm liquid assets to $100k were a DIME A DOZEN.
We are going to to it all over again. People will lose everything. There will be suicides.
Somebody told me there were 14 suicides in Midland the week oil went negative.
Think about whether or not that happens in an industry capable of price gouging.
Big oil companies are engaged in massive profiteering and price gouging. We need a windfall profits tax.
March 2008
Gas: $3.23 per gallon
Oil: $104.54 per barrel
March 2014
Gas: $3.51
Oil: $102.28
Last week:
Gas: $4.10
Oil: $111.42
Today:
Gas: $4.32
Oil: $95.17
$mtdr went from 300 Robin Hood shareholders on 3/1 to 18,000 on 5/1
$sm went from 500 to 22,000
$oas went from 2,800 to 56,000
$wll went from 4,500 to 43,000
It's pretty astonishing to actually have data on what the dumb money is doing
At every bar or house party in SF in 1999/2000 there were always people who would not STFU about SUNW, JDSU, CSCO, etc. It was insufferable. Sound familiar?
By 2003 the losses were so staggering, so revolting, that people could not even talk about tech stocks.
It's coming.
I heard all this bullshit back in '99. "You don't get it." "This is the future." "It's a new paradigm."
Want to guess what happened to those people?
They got destroyed. I'm not talking down 30%, down 50%. I'm talking sell your house and start over in life.
$OXY
I still don't get it. Of all the oil & gas stocks he could own, why this one?
I can think of others that have a greater durable competitive advantage
From a MS note
re: Tesla FSD vs. Mobileye Supervision
"On a test drive from Barcelona to Germany, an OEM benchmarking ADAS products noted that the rate of interventions for the Supervision-equipped car was one-tenth that of Tesla's FSD-equipped car in their tests"
LOL
🚨🚨 ***Texas Pacific Land Corporation Announces Board Refreshment*** 🚨🚨
Barry and Norris to retire. Going to nominate Rob Roosa and another person with energy experience. Huge win for shareholders.
$TPL
I am thankful for the good folks of
#EFT
. The last 1.5 years were easily the hardest of my life. So many of you made it easier by making me laugh, sharing your knowledge and tolerating my rants. I hope you’re all having a great Thanksgiving. 🙏
Today reminds me of a particular day in early 2000. The market darlings got destroyed e.g. $orcl went from $81 to $64 intraday. They rallied it most of the way back, but the mask had been lifted. That was the moment everyone realized they weren't alone thinking they'd sell 1st
She was elated. Now the whole family will ride around town in the color she chose. The look on her face was priceless.
Daddy/daughter connection for the win. It's such a high to make her happy.
Please look at this as an opportunity to educate the public about oil & gas. Most people have no idea of the thousands of daily touch points, the mind boggling logistics of D&C, the hundreds of thousands of employees trying to do honest work and raise families.
#EFT
Yesterday I spoke with a guy at an energy bank who used to cover me. They have initiated on new energy stocks like $bldp $plug $be $enph $sedg and even $fcx
Said revenue from new names exceeded their oil & gas coverage. Clients want nothing to do with O&G, even after the rally
Just remember: we are structurally underinvested. This is an extended cycle.
If the market is up because inflation is receding, the economy is benefitting. If the economy is benefitting, energy demand is rising. If demand is rising, prices will respond, which is...inflationary
People talk about too many CEOs per boe in the Permian.
We need to talk about too many CEOs per royalty boe in the mineral pubco space.
Honestly what are you spending $4.50/boe on?
Something a lot of men don't like to admit:
All of your hobbies and ambitions are to attract women.
Nature doesn't care how much personal fulfillment you get from them. Those things are cool, but they're a coincidental positive externality to the prime objective:
To keep the
$oas shareholder count at robin hood.
Just in time for the knockout blow.
The level of brain dead speculation on these low priced energy stocks is incredible.
You're not having a mid-life crisis until you've lost interest in WW2 and cars, and all you want to do is pick blueberries alone in perfect beautiful silence
Imagine knowing:
✅ Wells decline over time
✅ There was a historical collapse in upstream capex
✅ The cost/portability/density attributes of oil
✅ Per capita oil consumption in India & China is a fraction of the U.S. and Europe
and then allocating money to this strategy
James Jampel, Harvard alum, former management consultant, now running oil & gas hedge fund with structural short positions in oil and gas, says recent rally in oil stocks is biggest dead-cat bounce in history 🥴
Spent a few hours on $NEE $NEP for the first time in years
My take. The market gave utility dullards an advantaged cost of capital and asked them to go forth. Boy they did some wild shit they had zero business doing. I bet there are < 10 peeps at NEE who have a grip on this
What do we make of L48 oil production being stuck at ~11.1 mmbbl/d for the last few months even though completions have been rising? Bad data? Lag effects?
#EFT
Yesterday's energy food fight was so dumb it's sad.
Left: Ignores the strategic importance of an industry so vital that it played a decisive role in defeating the Nazis
Right: Pretends E&Ps want to grow production but a fed leasing ban is what's holding them back
I have developed a proprietary method for making money in energy through the cycle.
Identify companies with:
☑️ Low cost position
☑️ Deep inventory
☑️ Aligned mgmt
Then, buy enough FANG stocks to make up for the losses
Can anyone tell me how $chk makes it through the ~$65mm term loan coupon payment on 6/23, the $134mm second lien interest payment on 7/1, or the $177mm bond maturity on 8/15?
I question whether they even make the $3.4mm interest payment on Monday
How do you think the market would react to large cap E&Ps deciding to improve FCF and save inventory by letting production decline by low single digits?
#EFT
Just want to make sure I understand this correctly:
$nkla has a market cap of $7B
They have $700M cash and that's it
No revenue, no products, no technology, nothing to sell
and now their chief promoter is gone
Do I have that right?
$clr 23% increase in capex for a 3% increase in production ex-Permian assets acquired late last year.
Not nearly as dramatic as the 48% total capex increase would suggest
Put away your "Frackers Runnin' Wild" headlines (for now)
Just sold my unread copy of Ray Dalio's Principles on ebay for $6 and used the proceeds to cover 2% of the cost of an inflatable 2 person kayak so I can get out on the lake with my kids. I could not feel better about that trade.
A few observations from London/Paris:
1. Food and dining out is way cheaper than in CA
2. Air Jordan 1s/Nike Dunks/Vans are ubiquitous
3. The Royal Family oversees an empire of cheap tourist tchotchkes that makes SF Fisherman’s Wharf look like amateur hour
I think a good way to reconcile the two Americas would be to have an exchange program for high school students where if you are from the coast, you live with a family in the Midwest for a month (or a semester), and vice versa.
I kind of suck as a parent but today I am flying high.
Daughter has been having a hard time. Feels like the world is against her. Things don't go her way, etc etc
Was buying a minivan yesterday: She wanted the blue one from the local dealer.
$pxd
Sheffield at Barclays:
(paraphrasing) the only company we would buy is private. It's next to our acreage in the MB. It's not for sale. Probably won't be available for a long time. Eventually they'll drill up their acreage and then nobody will want them. 😂😂
$EFT
$clr 23% increase in capex for a 3% increase in production ex-Permian assets acquired late last year.
Not nearly as dramatic as the 48% total capex increase would suggest
Put away your "Frackers Runnin' Wild" headlines (for now)
Saudi is not playing 3D chess. They wanted to cut. That was option
#1
. The idea that this was part of some premeditated plan is nonsense. MBS is a sociopath and he got heated when Putin wouldn't play ball so he acted on impulse w/o thinking about 2nd order effects
A baggy question:
Let's say oil realizations go negative.
As a general rule, can mineral rights holders reject their share of production, or do they have to pay?
How about ORRI owners?
$bsm $dmlp $fnv $krp $mnrl $tpl $vnom
#oott
We just had a noticeable earthquake, which is unusual for this region. Biggest one ever here (AFAIK) was 6.6 in 1892.
If I perish in a random geologic event after surviving a year of sheltering with young kids there will be a strongly worded e-mail to customer service.
$tpl
I have missed the last 950 points. Trying to figure out what I am missing.
PDPs: 16.2 mboe/d, <40% oil cut, worth $40k/flowing at $60/2.85, or $650mm
EV is $12.4bn
So you're paying $11.7bn for the surface rights/land/PUDs
but, G&A is $53mm and it's a 20% cash taxpayer
The house is absolutely shaking right now with the sounds of a classic rock masterclass. I don’t care if the kids can’t hear their Paw Patrol. They need to know their was a time when men drove cars with firebirds on the hood.
Spent the night at a $90 hotel in Vegas after my connecting flight got cancelled. Frankly I am delighted to have not been killed for my phone and dumped in the desert