Sam Baker @macromule Twitter profile

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 years

I wrote a trading algorithm that buys #Bitcoin every time @PeterSchiff tweets about BTC and sells 72 hours later. Since May, the algorithm would have executed 203 trades, achieving an annualized return of ~1000%. 65% of trades are profitable with a 3% average return.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

1 month

" #Bitcoin is too complicated" - US Dollar user

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 years

Here is an example of the strategy at work in January.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 years

Here is a screenshot of the individual trades: Each time Peter tweets, the strategy would purchase $1000 in BTC.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

A majority (52%) of the nation's largest hedge funds are betting on #Bitcoin With the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs, institutions have run out of reasons to say no to sound money🚀

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

Very happy to share that today I'm starting a new role at @River where I'll be focusing on research! Eager to spend more time working on #bitcoin with such a focused and aligned team. Onwards and upwards!

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

The Revolution of Money Money is the most powerful system of trust ever devised. It is now failing us. Today, my brother and I published a book telling its history, failures, and evolution as a technology ( #bitcoin has a future role to play). It is now freely available 👇:

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

“A grid cannot be run on wishful thinking” - @MeredithAngwin in Shorting the Grid

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

Bitcoin’s adoption rate is on track with that of the internet

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Sam Baker

@macromule

4 months

BITCOIN IS THE INTERNET IN THE YEAR 2000 Two decades ago, the internet was no more widely used than Bitcoin is today. While it is difficult in hindsight to imagine what this internet transformation felt like in the year 2000, it is equally difficult to envision global adoption

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

This wouldn't have been possible without my brother and co-author @onlypositivesum Huge shoutout to @intangiblecoins for writing the book's foreword Shoutout to @timevalueofbtc , @malekanoms , @ericyakes , @cjasonmaier , @JeffBooth , @_drewarmstrong_ ,

The Revolution of Money

therevolutionofmoney.com

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 years

“If in the long run we are the makers of our own fate, in the short run we are the captives of the ideas we have created.” -F.A. Hayek

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

The Revolution of Money is now the #1 best seller in the Inflation category. LFG!

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

A tale of two monies

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

@DSBatten Hey @DSBatten , I made this chart, and would appreciate credit where it’s due. The data is credit to crypto . com of course.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

Don’t sleep on Columbus Ohio

Julia Duzon

@JuliaDuzon

2 months

The @River crew in Columbus! ❤️ this team

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Sam Baker

@macromule

6 months

IMO the most underreported event of 2023 was Saudi Arabia and China's currency swap agreement that was formalized in November. Actions speak louder than words—this agreement alone is more meaningful than all the de-dollarization chatter of the past decade, as it marks the first

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Sam Baker

@macromule

4 months

MONEY IS PATH DEPENDENT Why does the US dollar reign as the world’s reserve currency over hundreds of contemporary and historical alternatives? The invention of the QWERTY keyboard provides the first clue. Today’s QWERTY keyboard, the name given to the modern layout of computer

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

My latest article on @BitcoinMagazine covers the most important takeaways from the first round of 13f filings this past month.

Over Half Of Top US Hedge Funds Own Bitcoin ETFs

An analysis from Sam Baker at River of the different types of funds and institutions holding Bitcoin ETF shares.

bitcoinmagazine.com

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

What is missing in the shrine?

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

Nearly half (44%) of the nation's largest independent RIAs now own #Bitcoin ETFs But their allocations are quite modest... Why is this still bullish?

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Sam Baker

@macromule

1 month

40% of the world lives under capital controls Their ability to save money freely is restricted, and this is allowed by the IMF under 'Article 14'

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

Running thread of the most impactful Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) that are now active. 👇

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Sam Baker

@macromule

1 month

Big tech companies are reliant on closed, proprietary software. #Bitcoin is different.

River

@River

1 month

Open-source development is the backbone of the #Bitcoin ecosystem. We made an overview of 115 open source projects 👇 It highlights the work of brilliant developers that are working on something much greater than themselves 🙏

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

Does this make me a bag holder?

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

So many good Hayek quotes in The Genesis Book by @AaronvanW

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

Automated market markers (AMMs) are NOT the future of DeFi. Instead, DEXs will use central limit order book (CLOB) model. Here’s why 🧵👇: TLDR: Without subsidies, AMMs lack the necessary incentives to for both traders and liquidity providers. *Stablecoin AMMs are an exception

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

This was a fun conversation, thanks for having me!

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Sam Baker

@macromule

4 months

Path dependence is the idea that the present state of a technology or system is the result of the cumulative impact of historical, pragmatic decisions that were made along the path of its development. These decisions, often made based on the context and knowledge available at the

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

The amount of friction to become financially self-sovereign with #bitcoin has now been reduced to ZERO.

River

@River

2 months

We're adding a free monthly on-chain withdrawal to round out a great self-custody setup: 1️⃣ Buy #Bitcoin with zero-fee recurring buys. 2️⃣ Set up an automatic withdrawal to self-custody. 3️⃣ Enjoy zero fees for one withdrawal each month. We will forever encourage self-custody 🤝

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Sam Baker

@macromule

1 month

The CBO is projecting a federal debt level of $51 trillion by 2031🤯 If the Fed doesn't cut, that means our interest expense will become the largest budget item within a few years

River

@River

1 month

Could interest payments become the biggest expense for the federal government? It's possible in just a few years. Holding some #bitcoin keeps becoming smarter.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

Very notable that Fortress Investment Group reported owning >$50mm of IBIT (9% allocation) They're doubling down on a known (and very large) position in Mt. Gox claims. This suggests that the Gox payouts may not be the supply overhang some fear.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

This is it folks. This is why we get up in the morning. This is why we’re here.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

How to win as a sleepy medical tech company in 2024 Step 1: buy bitcoin Step 2: celebrate as your shareholders earn 28% in a day Step 3: repeat step 1

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

Hearing rumblings about a new Proof of Liabilities concept. It’s called an audit, anyone heard of it?

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

Roughly 50 contributions have been made _per_week_ to Bitcoin Core over the past 5 years. More on this coming in a few days...

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Sam Baker

@macromule

6 months

Jihan Wu is back and the market loves it. Bitdeer $BTDR up 30% after announcing that Wu (co-founder of Bitmain) will take a more active role as CEO in March

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Sam Baker

@macromule

6 months

@ByzGeneral Or it could just be that GBTC holders are not ‘selling’, but converting their paper into sats

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

Appreciate all the support, especially from @PubKey_NYC for hosting our launch event last night.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

Recently, Terra’s @LFG_org has committed to adding $BTC in reserves using their stockpile of ~8m LUNA tokens. How does Terra’s BTC purchases affect the price of $LUNA? TLDR: It is 100% dependent on $UST demand moving forward.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

Satoshi’s Wager - A framework for understanding Bitcoin’s parabolic growth TLDR: Acquiring a small amount of Bitcoin is now a rational strategy for all stewards of wealth. Even if not actively using Bitcoin, the potential rewards of Bitcoin becoming a global reserve asset

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

@ericyakes For existing Bitcoiners, the key takeaway is to understand money’s path dependence over time. As technology and society evolves, what constitutes ‘ideal’ money is redefined. The dawn of the telegraph helped bring about the demise of gold, and so too will the internet bring about

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Sam Baker

@macromule

1 year

Find me on nostr: npub1eac7gevgcckemgvxkkd6karqxh76anfp43k7kr5fnwzjryghf9vs6muf67

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

@River @EricBalchunas @JSeyff have you seen this?

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

How Gold Became Money - An Evolutionary Tale Gold’s emergence as a globally recognized store of value is remarkable, considering it arose independently across multiple civilizations around the world. This article details the story of gold's rise:

Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

Brazil passed the US for most #bitcoin search volume in May 🇧🇷

River

@River

2 months

The US 🇺🇸 is the biggest #Bitcoin country in the world. But in recent years a few other countries have been coming up big time 👀

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

The community has spoken. The shrine has been updated. Great recs @_amanda_fab @intangiblecoins

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

@PeterMcCormack @ericyakes has thought more about this than anyone I know.

Banks Without Bankers — Axiom

Cryptography, Incentives, and Agency in a Bitcoin Financial System - by Eric Yakes

www.axiombtc.capital

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Sam Baker

@macromule

9 months

October '23: Bitcoin: $30,000 10yr Real Rate: 2.08% June '22 Bitcoin: $30,000 10yr Real Rate: 1.05% December '20 Bitcoin: $30,000 10yr Real Rate: -0.23%

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 years

"A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. A complex system designed from scratch never works." - John Gall

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Sam Baker

@macromule

6 months

Since January 11th, after accounting for the ETF inflows, exchange balances, miner revenues, retail trading, corporate balance sheets, shadowy supercoders, and nation states, the Bitcoin network has seen daily inflows of 900 BTC/day. I counted it all up guys

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Sam Baker

@macromule

1 year

It’s worth looking back at gold’s performance over the GFC as guidance for #bitcoin ‘s performance this year. Gold had a 30% drawdown in ‘08, a year of great deleveraging, before leading all assets classes in a multi-year bull run. Sound familiar?

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

@_amanda_fab “A true decentralized and permissionless payment network requires its own underlying self-custodial bearer asset. If instead it runs on top of the fiat system or relies on external custodial arrangements, then it is neither decentralized nor permissionless.” @LynAldenContact

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Sam Baker

@macromule

10 months

What affect did the GLD ETF launch have on gold prices? A retrospective: GLD launched on November 18, 2004 and was the first gold ETF of its kind available in the U.S, seeing more than $1.4b of net flows within the first month after launch...

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

Zoltan has radically changed his tone towards the dollar this year. Guy is getting orange pilled

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Sam Baker

@macromule

4 months

WORLD WAR I Path dependence would continue to play a significant role in shaping the American economy following the country’s independence and first century and a half of growth. However, it was at the onset of World War I that path dependence would redefine the world’s

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

This👇👇👇 “The U.S. government wants ordinary (and younger) Americans to do risky things that are guaranteed to lose money while simultaneously barring them from doing risky things that may generate a positive return.”

Omid Malekan 🧙🏽‍♂️

@malekanoms

3 months

Who are we protecting, and from what? Gambling is increasingly legal in the US: Casinos, sports betting, the lottery, and so on. The economic benefits of most forms of gambling are limited. There is some job creation and collection of additional taxes, but these benefits come at

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

Govt bond traders looking a lot more like degen yield farmers right now

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Sam Baker

@macromule

24 days

Let’s lower grocery costs by - Restricting the supply of groceries by implementing price controls - Asking companies to go against their reason for existing (generating profits) - Subsidizing demand for groceries by handing out money Seems legit🤷🏻‍♂️

President Biden

@POTUS

25 days

Grocery costs are too high for families across the country. We have a plan to tackle them.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

7 months

There are twice as many people without access to a bank than there are without a smartphone (1.4b vs 700m). Above all, this is an indictment on our current financial system, unable to serve the needs of a global economy that demands universal access to money.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

1 month

@JeffSnider_EDU @JeffSnider_EDU how would you change this map of the US Dollar system?

Sam Baker

@macromule

1 month

" #Bitcoin is too complicated" - US Dollar user

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

@POTUS My plan to fight fires: 1) let fire fighters do their job 2) reduce production of all flammable materials 3)keep telling people that fires are bad

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Sam Baker

@macromule

5 months

Notable divergence since February 24: BTC: +18% MSTR: +49% RIOT: -19%

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

BIP 16 (Jan 2012, activated 2013): Pay to script hash (P2SH) was proposed by Gavin Andresen. This significantly improved Bitcoin’s flexibility, enabling more private multisig txs among other benefits.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

7 months

Complex systems built from scratch tend to end in catastrophe. Such was the case of Brasil's capital city Brasilia. In his seminal work Systemantics, John Gall was the first to articulate what is now known as Gall’s Law: "A complex system that works is invariably found to have

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Sam Baker

@macromule

10 months

Examining the total holdings of gold in mutual funds and ETFs leaves us with a few important takeaways (cr. @AltcoinDailyio ) 1) The launch of GLD marked the beginning of widespread financialization of gold products, both domestically and abroad.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

As a group, the weighted avg allocation for RIAs was less than 0.2%. However, in total there are 405 RIAs with over $1b in AUM that are now betting on bitcoin. If Q1 was about getting off zero, the quarters that come will be about sizing up...

River

@River

2 months

RIAs have made relatively small allocations. But there are 405 advisors with $1B+ in assets that have collectively allocated $2.5B to Bitcoin ETFs 👀 We mapped out the other categories as well 👇

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Sam Baker

@macromule

6 months

The success of the Constitution lies not in what powers it grants the state, but rather in what powers it takes away. The same is true with the #Bitcoin Whitepaper

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

@Matt_Hougan Here's a breakdown by category

River

@River

2 months

RIAs have made relatively small allocations. But there are 405 advisors with $1B+ in assets that have collectively allocated $2.5B to Bitcoin ETFs 👀 We mapped out the other categories as well 👇

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

This is progress

Nick Anthony

@EconWithNick

2 years

All eyes are on Jackson Hole, but the real statement of the summer came from @neelkashkari : “I keep asking anybody to explain to me what problem [a CBDC] is solving.” 🧵

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

Flashback to just one year ago… Top 10 tokens (ex-stables) and their returns over the past year: BTC -24% ETH -31% ADA -69% BNB -16% DOGE -78% XRP -60% ICP -95% DOT -60% BCH -76% UNI -79% There is a lesson here🧐

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

BTC last moved within the past month hits all time low

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

Today we celebrate the origin of Bitcoin’s deflationary journey. Using Bitcoin, what bought you 2 pizzas in 2010 would now get you 46 million. With the dollar, what bought you 2 pizzas in 2010 now leaves you with a lunchables🤮

River

@River

2 months

On Bitcoin Pizza Day 🍕, cherish each slice before it becomes more expensive. Unless you pay in bitcoin 😉

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Sam Baker

@macromule

5 months

Excellent primer on the thermodynamics of bitcoin mining

Tyler Stevens ⚡️

@tylerkstevens

5 months

New Exergy Insights Blog Post. Check it out! Thermodynamics and Heat Transfer for Miners

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

BIP 340-342 (Proposed: 2018, Implemented: Nov 2021): The Taproot upgrade comprises 3 BIPs that increase the efficiency of complex transactions, improve the security and cost of lightning transactions...

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Sam Baker

@macromule

4 months

@DSBatten Crypto(dot)com puts out an an annual crypto adoption report with their methodology detailed. It attempts to capture holders of BTC across all platforms

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 months

This is absolutely worth a watch for aspiring mining gurus. Heat reuse is going places!

Tyler Stevens ⚡️

@tylerkstevens

2 months

Last week, I had the pleasure of presenting to the @DenverBitDevs community on mining #bitcoin for waste heat reuse purposes. The discussion covered thermodynamic fundamentals, use cases, hardware, economics and more. Check it out on my YouTube channel!

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

The greatest advances in our economy have been led by introducing Darwinism (free competition) to the marketplace: 1) Capital markets accelerated natural selection by expediting efficient capital allocation 2)Crypto accelerates natural selection by expediting competition itself

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Sam Baker

@macromule

1 month

Signpost. In 2022, Yellen made it clear that Russian assets were “frozen”, and specifically _not_ seized. Now they’re considered “revenues?”

President Biden

@POTUS

1 month

This week, the G7 took a major step, agreeing to unlock $50 billion from revenues of immobilized Russian sovereign assets – and put that money to work for Ukraine. It’s another reminder to Putin. We’re not backing down.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

P2SH also provides a method for senders to place the responsibility of paying additional network fees on the recipient rather than themselves. This was also the first upgrade after Satoshi’s disappearance. A great story on P2SH by @pete_rizzo_ here:

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

America’s over-consumption problem pales in comparison to China’s over-investment problem

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Sam Baker

@macromule

6 months

Cowrie shells were used as money as late as 1875. Shells are shown here serving as small change in India

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

Additionally, CTV seeks to combat network congestion (via batching) and allow for lightning channels of more than 2 entities. Good read by @BitMEXResearch

OP_CTV – Summer Softfork Shenanigans

Abstract: We examine and explain a proposed softfork upgrade to Bitcoin, OP_CTV (Check Template Verify). This feature would enable users to commit to spending a Bitcoin output, only under certain r…

blog.bitmex.com

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

...and allow for smart contract “hosting of any number of signatories while retaining the data size of a single-sig transaction.” Read more about Taproot from @chainalysis :

Bitcoin Taproot Upgrade: Everything You Need to Know

Bitcoin's Taproot upgrade was activated on November 14th, improving the flexibility, security, and efficiency of bitcoin transactions.

www.chainalysis.com

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Sam Baker

@macromule

1 year

Nature’s discount rate is the cost of energy

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Sam Baker

@macromule

3 months

@TheStalwart

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

“It’s like holding a basketball underwater” - @LynAldenContact

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

It’s just getting started

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Sam Baker

@macromule

7 months

What gave commodity monies of the past their scarcity was a real world cost of production. The process to mine gold, produce new cowrie shells, or create more wampum was an energy intensive process. It was because of this burden that these commodities remained scarce; if mining

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Sam Baker

@macromule

7 months

In monetary realm, a tale anew, Bitcoin's ETF, in morning dew. Gensler's gaze, SEC's might, Corrected course from yesternight. A digital dawn, in ledger's lore, Bitcoin ascends, to soar once more. In market's heart, a triumphant day, A great bright orange ballet.

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

BIP 10 (Oct 2011): This introduced multi-signature transaction distribution. Read more here:

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Sam Baker

@macromule

1 year

@Leishman The US is the world’s leader in breakfast food. I will die on this hill

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

2023 will be the year sovereign debt starts to matter

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

BIP 141 (Proposed 2015, went live Aug 2017): The Segregatted Witness (Segwit) upgrade improved scalability and fixed transaction malleability by storing signature information outside of the block (capped at 1mb). A brief overview of BIP 141 by @lopp :

SegWit: The Swiftest Safe Path Forward

I and many of my colleagues at BitGo and across the Bitcoin ecosystem are eager to see Segregated Witness activated.

medium.com

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Sam Baker

@macromule

2 years

The pivot has begun

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Sam Baker

@macromule

10 months

2) It took almost a decade for the market for exchange-traded gold products to find an equilibrium in terms of holdings.

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