Luca Pedretti @luca_pedretti Twitter profile

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Luca Pedretti

4 years

God, grant me the serenity to accept the things I cannot change, the courage to change the things I can, and the wisdom to know the difference

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

6 months

@solar_chase Welcome to the club! It is a great little country to take care of. The best description of us Swiss I heard so far: we like to be precisely wrong 😀

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

Genuine hockey sticks!

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

6 months

Batteries are killing the duck

Grid Status

@grid_status

6 months

In 2024, natural gas generation on an average April day in California hit a 7-year low. This is a significant trend reversal from what we saw from 2021 to 2023 in CAISO.

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

6 months

Chart of the year to date: Batteries are killing the duck Full thread here:

Grid Status

@grid_status

6 months

In 2024, natural gas generation on an average April day in California hit a 7-year low. This is a significant trend reversal from what we saw from 2021 to 2023 in CAISO.

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

5 months

This path is likely to be followed by other markets too. Batteries dominate and commoditize frequency reserve markets within a few years...

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

3 months

Big envy: Very nice #PPA market snapshot done by @SPGCIPower All in one page: break-even levels, capture rates, price indices, volumes

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

9 months

The European Energy Crisis in 4 Acts Source: @EU_ACER

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

7 months

European solar factories being squeezed out of the market

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

11 months

The first 5 #PPAs for Green Hydrogen in Europe Source: @Pexapark

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

5 months

Cost of Firming Intermittency. Or: The end of LCOE as a useful concept Source: lazards-lcoeplus-june-2024-_vf.pdf

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

7 months

This! CATL's Tianheng. Energy density of 430 Wh/l, capacity 6,25 MWh, 20y warranty

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

6 months

We: "Oh, the mighty AI electricity demand will crush grids, etc " Google: "Data center compute output increased by 550% between 2010 to 2018. Electricity demand for that period increased 6%." The industry will adapt.

133. AI, Datacenters and Energy - May24

Redefining Energy · Episode

open.spotify.com

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

Surprise, Surprise v2. Lots of renewable power in the grid, lots of negative prices

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

10 months

🇪🇺 ICIS 2023 year in review 🔎A brief review of EU Electricity generation and demand in 2023 ⬇️

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

8 months

Financing renewables: Looks cool but I don't understand it yet 🙈 Thesis: well-diversified renewable portfolios with professional revenue management using all liquid instruments produce equally stable revenue at a lower cost than ones with LT PPA. What would a lender say?

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

7 months

Problem: Solar Capture Rate of ~50% (Spain, March 2024). Solution: co-locate 2h battery, 50% of capacity with grid charging. Hybrid capture rate of ~97%. Source: @Pexapark

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

The future of renewables is "mixed portfolio, a bit of storage & not fancy at all hybrid #PPA structures": 90% hourly matching

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

5 months

Energy trading revenues for BESS on the rise as well in ERCOT Source: @ModoEnergy

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

8 months

Solar eating its own lunch, ehm, price Source: @Pexapark , ENTSO-E, OMIE

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

7 months

Solar capture rate in Spain: March 2024.

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

4 months

Unlocking the added value of co-located batteries in #PPA Hybrid PPAs are the future, and they command a premium. But how do you price that premium? Understanding this is key to capturing the merits created by the investment in battery units. Welcome to the Age of Hybrid PPA.

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

5 months

@CleanPowerDave This graph is even more telling. Batteries are killing it

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

4 months

Jargon in the solar industry: Enter Solar Coaster “There are slight profits, then longer periods of terrible margins, then bankruptcies and exits. We call it the solar coaster.” You've made it to the Economist @solar_chase , congrats!

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

11 months

Green Hydrogen competitiveness will be driven by the availability and pricing of #PPA Pricing on a marginal cost basis, accounts only for the commodity costs (power), and excludes Opex & capex. Aim is to understand the green premium requirement Source: @Pexapark

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

10 months

European offshore wind set for pivotal 2024 as auction road map nears 50 GW Source:

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

6 months

One must love the power price dynamics at work in ERCOT. This will be the normal interplay in all markets with high renewable & battery penetration Source: @ModoEnergy

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

7 months

Electrostate China leading the Renewable Age Source:

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

8 months

Important one by @LionHirth . And it is not just Germany. We have similar "balancing paradoxes" in other European markets

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

9 months

Largest planned new UK BESS

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

4 months

1/7 Google's Clean Transition Tariff (CTT): A Model for 24/7 Clean Firm Procurement? Google's new CTT, pioneered in Nevada with Fervo to power its local data center, is, in "PPA-speak," a utility-sleeved 24/7 PPA in the form of a rate option.

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

5 months

**Nuke PPA in Belgium with ArcelorMittal** In May, the Belgian government struck a groundbreaking 10-year #PPA deal with ArcelorMittal to provide nuclear power starting in 2025. This move increases competitive pressure on the offshore wind PPA sector. The government will own

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

3 months

“The grid is broken. Load will have to come to generation — at least some of it", Intersect Power CEO Kimber. Intersect Power is investing $837M in three grid battery projects in Texas, set to go live in 2024. These installations will add nearly 1 GWh of energy storage,

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

8 months

Incredible battery storage boom in ERCOT Source: @ModoEnergy

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

5 months

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

7 months

Yet another data center electricity demand forecast. Source: BofA

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

11 months

European #PPA Prices have done a full Mont St. Michel

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

6 months

Solar power at the price of 2 pint of beer The market value of the Spanish solar power stood at just EUR 8.7/MWh on average in March

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

11 months

Green H2 pricing will be #PPA based. Offshore Wind PPA-based H2 in Germany with COD 01.01.2027 is currently assessed at 3.75 EUR/kg @Pexapark 's green fuel prices (GFP) are a price assessment that measures the v a r i a b l e unit cost of producing hydrogen under PPA-based

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

10 months

🇩🇪 BESS revenue stack. It's Day-ahead and intra-day!

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

2 years

The (Ugly) Face of Credit Risk in #PPA . In the past often neglected, today credit structring and negotiation is key to successful PPA deal making. A short summary thread of @Pexapark 's take on credit risk in PPA 👇 1/12

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

5 months

@JohnRanford More renewables are a key driver behind more storage :)

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

11 months

Want to have it so badly! Source:

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

8 months

Current mood on some European #PPA markets

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

11 months

The booming French #PPA market 26 deals year to date, mostly solar, driven by corporates, SNCF the biggest buyer and, most interestingly, all 15 to 25y (versus 10y in the rest of Europe) Data: @Pexapark

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

11 months

Record high number of negative power prices in Europe Among others, negative impact on #PPA pricing. Source data: EEX

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

Though lessons for Baseload #PPA . Can retrofitting wind assets with storage help? (A long weekend thread) Let's analyze a simulation case conducted by @Pexapark for a Finnish 50MW onshore wind asset along with a 20MW baseload hedge for the month of Nov 2022. 1/10

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

9 months

The European #PPA Market 2023 in one take For all the details ➡ Pexapark PPA Market Outlook 2024:

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

5 months

Octopus entering US markets Worthwhile quote to consider: "In the U.S., land of free markets and capitalist competition, market design largely blocks Octopus from rolling out its innovations, and instead protects the monopoly power of century-old incumbent utilities. There is

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

🇰🇷 South Korea's 7.7 GW offshore wind pipeline

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

An absolute masterpiece of @JigarShahDC on @DecoupleMedia unscrewing nuclear heads and putting them back into the context of what real-world politics, real word engineering, and real-world ambition and focus for nuclear actually should look like.

Jigar Shah: Breaking the Nuclear Stalemate

Decouple · Episode

open.spotify.com

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

8 months

Some hand-picked notes from Engie CFO Pierre Francois Riolacci - Business model of CCGT changed to be driven by intra-day volatility rather than clean spark spreads - their trading unit adding new services: BESS optimization, profiting from high demand for green #PPA , biomethane

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

8 months

Why don't Chinese manufacturers capture a larger market share in Europe despite their price advantage?

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

11 months

🇸🇪Another Swedish wind farm faces PPA-driven bankruptcy 71 MW Wind farm Aldermyrberget is facing bankruptcy. Owners LHI Group and EB-SIM want to renegotiate a 15-year PPA with local mining company Boliden

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

3 years

@tferriss Why should you disagree?

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

6 months

Germany: Boost for co-locating BESS & PV, more Hybrid PPA to be expected🚀 Germany’s long-awaited “Solarpaket 1” brings the abolishment of the "Ausschliesslichkeitsprinzip" (exclusivity principle), which previously prohibited batteries from storing electricity sourced from

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

8 months

🇩🇪 Dislocation of the German #PPA Market Interesting times in Europe's most important PPA market. The spread in bid prices has dramatically widened in Q1 2024 but deal flow has not (yet) slowed amid very high corporate PPA demand and willingness to pay a premium Can this last?

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

9 months

🇫🇷 France has awarded 1 GW of onshore wind capacity to 57 projects at an average price of EUR 87.23/MWh in its latest tender. In other words: Current price levels on the #PPA market would only allow for the construction of new solar but not on-shore wind in France

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

The Holy Trinity of Renewable Price Risk.

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

Could do a slide every day from @NatBullard 's fantastic deck. Every quicker deployment and growth

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

Weekend musings on PPA. Price differences between 6 and 10-year #PPA .

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

10 months

A nice overview of Renewable Capture values Source: @SPGCI

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

6 months

Big changes ahead in Italy: Starting 2025, the system spot price PUN will bephased out and replaced with zonal spot prices.

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

10 months

Demand destruction

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

@Weltwoche Danke! Die sind sich meiner Stimme sicher

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

9 months

Solar is eating the world! Wow

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

5 months

@JHildenMinton "Balancing" typically refers to a market where deviations from day ahead scheduled to actually delivered energy are priced (and exchanged) while "trading" refers to placing bets that e.g. prices will be low/high at a given point in time day-ahead and for that energy is

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

4 years

Jede Stutz wert.

Operation Libero

@operationlibero

4 years

Ganz direkt und ehrlich: Operation Libero steht finanziell vor dem Aus.

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

9 months

So many new #PPA deals. 272 in 2023! ➡ @Pexapark PPA Market Outlook 2024:

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

10 months

🇩🇪9 GW flex deficit in Germany by 2030. Key Driver for BESS investment Source: @TimeraEnergy

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

Solar PV modules are approaching the bottom of the cost curve, but the declining marginal benefits on total cost for utility-scale PV systems are becoming evident. Source: IEA, BNEF, Canadian Solar

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

7 months

European Union approves Romanian CfD auction ahead of launch 1 April 2024 And: I finally found a reference to @Pexapark in an official EU document. 😊

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

4 months

🇩🇪 2.5 GW of stand-alone +10MW BESS projects planned until 2026 in Germany Source:

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

11 months

Revolution in the #PPA market. Vive la France! 🇫🇷 The French model with state-back credit guarantee support paves the way for an enabling framework that other nations could emulate to stimulate their PPA markets — a testament to the power of policy in accelerating the path to

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

3 months

Battery storage in ERCOT: Ancillary Service prices are still tied to system scarcity. But batteries are making an impact - driving down prices vs Day-Ahead Energy in competitive services. The grid is evolving, just not how we thought! Nice piece by @ModoEnergy

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

3 years

Great podcast @Dr_Keefer . Takes me once at a time beyond my renewable myopia.

Decouple

Podcast · Dr. Chris Keefer · There are technologies that decouple human well-being from its ecological impacts. There are politics that enable these technologies. Join me as I interview world experts...

open.spotify.com

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

Portfolio revenue, Hybrid #PPA , Auction, Baseload

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

6 months

Reacting to some of the comments: Yes, it is "only" for April. Hot months look different but there are more GWs of batteries being deployed Yes, batteries don't protect against overall low prices Yes, there will also be cannibalization of battery revenue due to battery

Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

6 months

Chart of the year to date: Batteries are killing the duck Full thread here:

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

9 months

Texas Solar ( #PPA ) Boom Source: @NatBullard

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

8 months

🇩🇪 Offshore wind farm powers green hydrogen plant under landmark #PPA deal Quite a lot of things are covered by this PPA ⬇️ - 1'200 GWh annual production of which +60% is contracted via the PPA - the PPA complements existing EEG subsidies by providing a blueprint for future

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

2 years

The North Sea is poised to become Europe's renewable energy backbone. Installations are being scaled up from 4 to 10 GW/a, with the eventual goal of reaching a total installed base of more than 250 GW. This rapidly growing industry is building a new super-sized energy system.

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

Industrial gas demand remains 20% below pre-war levels

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

8 months

Solar & #PPA boom in Greece: Cannibalisation effects become relevant for solar. Source: @Pexapark Analysis based on PexaQuote data (March 2024), ENTSO-E (March 2024)

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

5 months

What factors drive #PPA prices? Next to absolute price levels, I find the market-specific divergences from reference prices the most interesting. Example: In Germany, the deal flow is maintained by a selected group of industrial off-takers willing to pay a green premium

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

7 months

What a gap! Source:

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

SE1 wind capture rate 32.4%

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

7 months

The Race in Renewables, EVs & Electrification Source:

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

The Battery rises in the West! However, ERCOT will continue to be the most dynamic and interesting market to watch. By the end of 2023, it is expected that ERCOT will be catching up to CAISO in terms of installed solar and storage capacity. via @Platts

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

3 years

@katie_martin_fx @FT he could just shake himself out as an alternative...

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

5 months

What strategies do ERCOT’s largest battery energy storage owners follow? A great, detailed piece by the BESS masters of @ModoEnergy . And so many gorgeous charts

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

8 months

Make sure to share some #PPA knowledge every day. Today, let's do a quick recap on all those beautiful structural acronyms! PAP, FHP, MBL...

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

5 months

KPMG #PPA Accounting Webinar: "Most PPAs will have to be accounted for on a fair value basis" Based on proposed IFRS reporting standard amendments currently being discussed, KPMG expects that "most PPAs will have to be accounted for on a fair value basis" IASB are proposing

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

1 year

Risks never disappear. PPAs simply convert market risks into credit risks. Effectively manage #PPA credit risk with these 3 crucial insights: > Revenue Exposure > Replacement Risk > Concentration Risk

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

9 months

Hybrid #PPA on YouTube! ☺️

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

4 months

Solar capture rates in Spain remain below 50% Lower expectations on future profile costs imply reduced revenue expectations, likely driving down the achievable debt ratio for new projects. Source: @Pexapark

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

9 months

BESS Arbitrage 2023 rankings

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

8 months

🇫🇷 France solar auction awards +900 MW at an average of 81.90 EUR/MWh Why pay so much? #PPA can deliver the built-out so much cheaper...

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

7 months

Race for growth in renewables

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

11 months

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

9 months

This podcast is worthwhile! While we discuss energy investments extensively, we often overlook the topic of energy efficiency. We waste a staggering amount of energy (+60%) without any practical use! Check out the episode here:

118. Doubling Energy Efficiency - Feb24

Redefining Energy · Episode

open.spotify.com

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Luca Pedretti

@luca_pedretti

2 years

Solar Capture Rate in Spain - March 2023: 0.78 - February 2023: 0.90 - January 2023: 0.92 by @Pexapark #PPA data

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