ltrd @ltrd_ Twitter profile

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

I analyzed data from a couple of exchanges related to today’s drop in the crypto market. Of course, I focused on BTC because it was seen that BTC was the catalyst. Prepare tea or coffee, focus yourself for a couple of minutes and come with me on the data journey.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Crypto influencers persuade people to invest in low marketcap coins. Here I would like to show you what happens when tweets like this show up on your timeline. It can be a disaster for you and the market. Do not let anybody be his exit liquidity. $FIDA 🧵🧵🧵

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

How to analyze, visualize and use alpha from the feature? 🧵 I would like to show you methods for analyzing some features that you will find in the data. Everything is used in practice, without fancy words and ML methods. For quants and beginners coming from manual trading.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

I believe that this analysis was at least a bit interesting for you. Share your perspective and ideas and ask questions if you have any.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

I strongly recommend this book, as it is probably the best start in game theory, no matter if you want to use it in business or in theory only. Good introduction with examples to the most important basic topics: dominant strategies, Nash Equilibrium, mixed games etc.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

🧵🧵Why it is more important to know when to trade than what to trade? Recently, I heard from @LomahCrypto during his live that one of the greatest mistakes is to trade when you should not. I would like to prove statistically and by visualization, that it is truth. #trading

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

If you love trading, there is nothing more interesting than solving puzzles related to liquidity, open interest etc. Do me a favor - sit for 10 minutes and answer this question: What can tell you the ratio between the change of OI and the volume at a specific time?

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

The Quants is one of my favorite light books about the quant world with a lot of interesting anecdotes from the life of the best quants in history. You can find here stories about poker games, stressful dot com bubble time, and the fights with the market during the crisis. If you

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

How to understand your prediction model and use it in real algorithmic trading? 🧵🧵🧵 Get a cup of tea or coffee and enjoy new knowledge. #Trading #MachineLearning #ExplainableML #xAI #Shapley

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

How to develop yourself in High-Frequency Trading. First topics, books and good practices. #HFT #trading #cryptocurrency #algotrading

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Why do I think that analyzing paths of the prices after the signal can be a game changer for every trader? It does not matter what is the signal, but you can learn a lot of things by looking at this plot and analyzing it. Let's do it. 🧵☕️

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

[1/n] Friday’s night crash was very interesting because there was no big news at this moment and some of the instruments fell about 50% within two hours. I would like to break down the microstructure behaviors and do an overall analysis from that day. 🧵 #trading #cryptocrash

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

9/10 Road to become a better AlgoTrader. A lot of people here try to be a good algo trader, but do not know how to start or how to switch from beginner to a more advanced player. I would like to share my view on this topic.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

A couple of days ago we had probably the most important listing this year - $ARB. It is the best possibility to understand the market because of the lack of perpetual swaps, withdrawals, and liquidity. Let’s take a look at it through the eyes of an HFT player. #Arbitrum

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Recently, I watch @LomahCrypto videos. What is visible, is that he almost always trades hot coins + BTC/ETH. What I wanted to check is if staying with top performers is typically good for you or not as a trader. 🧵I think the results with be insightful for everybody.🧵 #trading

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Last time my book recommendation had pretty good feedback. Today, I would like to encourage you to read probably the best book that I have ever read. It is Think Like A Rocket Scientist written by Ozan Varol.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Don’t be ashamed of doing simple things. As a math graduate, I was always ashamed of doing things that I considered too simple. It is one of the biggest possible trading mistakes.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

You should discount people's trading skills by mcap of coins that the traders are talking about. If a trader is good and talks about top50 mcap coins, then you can assume that he is quite good. If a trader talks about $1-10mm mcap coins - it is nothing more than a fugazi.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Extreme Market Analysis #1 We had FOMC today, but what was even more interesting is the drop that was just 2 minutes before the interest rate rise announcement. What happened exactly? Take a 5-minute break and read my short analysis. 🧵🧵📉 #FOMC

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ltrd

@ltrd_

8 months

[1/13]A couple of days ago I saw the most volatile and manipulated market move in my career. TRB had increased its price by over 100% and then immediately fell 60% and it's not a coin with <$1mm mcap. Let’s do an in-depth analysis of what happened. #cryptocurrency #TRB #Trading

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

First look at the trade data from exchanges. As you can see - absolute wild west on the plot. You have to have watermelon balls if you want to be a market maker on such a market. Sometimes it pays off but it is highly uncontrolled, so the profit is random with high variance.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Critical information for every trader. Liquidations you see on all platforms are nonsense. Binance provides information about latest liquidation within 1000ms! You cannot reason by it. Only good thinking about OpenInterest can help you. A lot more about it within couple of days.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

10/10 Main Goal for 2023 and the reason why I am here. Sometimes people are a bit confused about why I reveal my analyses, processes, and alphas. Everything has its own purpose and I would like to tell you why I do it and what is the goal for 2023 related to it.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

10 thoughts and reviews for the last ten days of the 2022. I would like to share with you some of my thoughts at the end of this year. I hope that this tough year was not so brutal for you and you will find a power to make your next year a great one.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

How they played the FOMC? -> precise analysis of market microstructure during the news. A lot of plots, analyses, and conclusions about how traders reacted to the news. Go for a tea or coffee and please enjoy my work 🧵

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

@ByzGeneral It can be due to the fact that Binance provides orderbooks for only 5k levels, which are definitely not above 30k. It means that data far away from current price are not precise. I would not make reasoning by this data.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

It can be seen that due to the high volatility and latency of the order execution, liquidity on ByBit disappeared. Probably (as far as we all know ByBit) some giga degen chads were liquidated and no market maker wanted to take this liquidity.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

I tried to measure the latency during the drop, but I had to exclude FTX because latency was so big that plots were not so valuable. So I prepared a second plot, only with binance spot and binance futures data.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

I do not want to make enemies - I just want to educate people. A lot of people DM me and write as if I would be some algotrading god. Believe me, I am more average than you would ever think. Do not make some random guy that dumps on people your next guru.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

7 months

Remember, most of your best traders are just influencers who take $50-100k for a Twitter campaign. Consider it if you want to learn how to trade and want to be present in the market for the next 10-20 years. Stick to the people who are humble but can provide you with good and

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

A lot of (probably most) the crypto exchanges produce fake trades that count into the overall turnover in order to move the exchange up in volume rankings. How really famous exchanges do it? How we can see it? 🧵🧵🧵 #trading #cryptocurrency

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

It was a very interesting event from the HFT perspective. It seems that the best strategy for this event was to just disappear from the orderbook - we did not do it, unfortunately, but volatility is a double-edged sword and we have to know how to operate it.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

11 months

I've read and analyzed the book “Going Infinite” by Michael Lewis about SBF. I'll try to show you interesting quotes, problems, lies, and why the fundamental problem was that SBF was a complete chronic liar. I’ve worked on it for a few days and it'll be a big thread. 1/43 🧵

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

The difference between AI and Crypto is that you probably have 2 friends that have $NVDA in a portfolio but 200 friends that use AI daily, but in crypto, you have 200 friends speculating on shitcoins and only 2 (at most) that use blockchain. It is sad, but do not fool yourself.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

You can now see how all of those influencers can dump on you and then they will brag that they were x2 or x5 on some investment where you were the exit liquidity. There is nothing here connected with trading. It is just devil marketing.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

The optimal 3-step learning process that can change your learning curve in a dramatic way. 🧵🧵🧵 I was always really interested in how to learn better, how to understand the things that you learn, and how to move from theory to practice. After a couple of years of reading about

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

I’ve heard a lot of things about news/narrative traders recently. I think that it is one of the greatest ways to challenge your bias and I fully respect every successful news trader. Today I would like to present you news trading from a liquidity perspective. Let’s go with me.🧵

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

You can see something strange about volume imbalance right before the drop. It was significantly lower than on the rest of the interval, which means big sell pressure.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

It is really valuable because we can ask if it was some manipulation related to the quote placing or something like that. In the early days of HFT, we had a lot of market manipulations and spoofing especially. Image from 2012 year with high activity within a couple of seconds.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

If you do not have a market impact on your trades, then probably you trade wrong market or wrong strategy. It does not make sense to trade BTC if you have 500$ account - market impact is a pretty good approximation of the optimal market for you.

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@ltrd_

1 year

As a market maker that provides liquidity for some time already, I have read carefully the CFTC's complaint against Binance. I am definitely not a law expert, but there are some things to take for everybody in this paper. 1. It opens the door for creating complaints against

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

You can see how liquidity disappeared before the event. After the drop, there is no liquidity in the book, even if spreads were significantly larger.

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@ltrd_

2 years

I have seen that over 10k people follow me. I am surprised and I didn't think that maintaining a decent level of preparation will result in such honor. After the weekend I will present you a precise analysis of how exchanges make fake trades to be higher in rankings.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

CVD → Here we do not have surprises. Most of the volume was traded on BinanceFutures which is normal. The interesting thing is that ByBit had some big market orders two times that were relatively huge in comparison to standard market orders.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

A very important topic for everyone - if you make big (even quite) money and you do not spend anything on your growth like personal trainers, new hobbies, psychologists, travel, etc. then be careful. Sacrificing everything is good for 3-5 years, but eventually, the marginal

art

@art_xbt

1 year

If you’re rich, but all the other aspects of your life are mediocre, are you really successful? I'm all for making sacrifices, but most people don't get the memo that it's time to dial back and catch up on all the other things that have been lacking. They are just as important.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

It took about 4 seconds from the first trade on Binance Spot for the price 19600 (about 750BTC on the order) to the complete finish of this order. After that, it was a huge influx of market sell orders on more and more disappearing liquidity.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

You can see that on ByBit we had a spike before the event, which is really interesting.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

OK, so we started talking about spread, so this is the data related to the spread. You can see that there is a huge spike for about one minute and then it decays but not to the pre-event level.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

4/10 Doing simple things right I have already talked a bit about it before, but I cannot stress how important it is to keep most things simple and just do it right. It is an excellent time to review the things where you can apply those rules.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Of course, we see a lot of spikes, but if we go deeper, there are a lot of really interesting things right there. The main drop was right after 5:05:30 p.m. so we had a spike of latency a couple of seconds before the drop (price was way above 19600)

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

I read some tweets about market microstructure, especially related to the fact that you have a difference between fees and tick sizes. I performed some small analyses in order to show you that those markets are completely different #trading #cryptocurrency #Binance

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Here you have Cumulative Volume Delta with tweet timestamp. What is really strange is that half an hour before the tweet and big move, there was an unusual accumulation period where there was over $600k of aggressive buy market orders. Someone bought a lot of $FIDA.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Firstly, I would like to say that I would not like to be anybody's enemy. I just spot strange things on the market and try to analyze them. I am here to educate you as well and make you a better trader. These behaviors are not appropriate, unfortunately.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

7/10 Ask the right questions. There is no more important thing when you do trading research than asking the right question. It is another thing that can sound trivial but is a key to being a good trader.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

[1] The hottest topic in the crypto universe last couple of days was $PEPE - a meme coin that went to top 40 coins and was the biggest meme surprise since SHIB in October 2021. How did the market look in the HFT data? Let’s see! 🧵🧵 #pepe #cryptocurrency #trading

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

I checked the code for CVD on TradingView, because I see that a lot of people use it. As I see volumeDelta is up when the candle is green, it is not related to the real volumeDelta which is buyVolume - sellVolume.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

8/10 Study Outliers I have written about it before, but I have learned a lot about market microstructure and whole trading by working on outliers, so I think it will be good if I emphasize the importance of doing it.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

I do not know even what to say. I have read it 10 times and I still have a hope that it is only a joke. Binance cartel liquidated a „trader” that shorted the hottest coin on whole CT longed by best ct traders. If somebody does 30x in weeks, it is an addicted gambler.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

It seems that I have 5000 followers. I am really grateful for it. I thought that no shitposting + real analyses of market microstructure will not be so interesting for you. I am sure that it is only the beginning and I'll give you a lot of analyses in the future. Thank you!

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

I see a lot of hate for people that were traders and started writing books or doing courses. Is it that surprising that the guy with 20 years of experience in trading does not want to do it even if he is strongly profitable? Writing books and doing trading courses is a great

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

This is one of the problems that I see in very talented people. They ask too theoretical questions, and they always try to find a probability distribution of something right at the start of the research, without even understanding the relations and the topic.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Here we have a Bar Chart Race animation plot. Turnover on several perps during the time of yesterday’s drop. You can see which coin was dumped before and after the announcement. 60 retweets & 300 likes and I will prepare code for this plot.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

[1 / n] A lot of people that I have talked with came through hell the previous week. It was a crazy week, but now it is time to focus and take lessons from those turmoils. I will share you mine.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

8 months

I failed. Last year I talked about creating a book about algorithmic trading and all of the stuff that I think is important in order to be a good algo trader. The profits from book supposed to be granted to charity orgs related to the children education in poor countries.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Some people asked for the code, so I prepared a short notebook with a function that will plot something like this. You have sample data as well. Enjoy.

GitHub - ltrd95/notebooks

Contribute to ltrd95/notebooks development by creating an account on GitHub.

github.com

ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Why do I think that analyzing paths of the prices after the signal can be a game changer for every trader? It does not matter what is the signal, but you can learn a lot of things by looking at this plot and analyzing it. Let's do it. 🧵☕️

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

You will probably see guys posting 300% PnLs. Don't worry - they have to show that they are reliable and solid. It's not bad that you did not make 2x on your account, just take lessons. Last week I: - Short LDO - Short GMT - Long KNC 0.78 - Barely made a profit. Good Sunday.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

This tweet showed up at 01:35:40 p.m. on a Twitter account with over 155k followers. It pushed the market by almost 30% on really low liquidity. Let's see what exactly happened.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Focus on fundamentals. If you want to be good in machine learning - be perfect in simple linear regression, if you want to be good in boxing - master the jabs and footwork. People push too hard into complex things from the start of learning.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

1/10 Why mental preparation and a psychologist is what can make you a better trader and a better person? For a lot of us, this year was a negative surprise and a tough period. Taking care of about mental health can be important in your life.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

You can see here the price impact of the tweet (red line). You can see percentage spread as well. The tweet deteriorated the market and previous buyer could unwind his position on a market where there was a huge turnover - $5.5mm within 30 minutes after the tweet on USDT pair.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

4 months

90% of the new projects in crypto are looking for a market maker that is going to create them a fake volume, push the price during the listings and let the founders sell their tokens. Projects are spoiled by some of the crypto MM that I will not reveal that provide them with all

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Of course - share it with all people, so that they can know how most of their gurus' work day by day.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

One of the things that I really like in conferences is that you have a lot of crypto people and influencers wearing golden glasses, watches etc. and then you go to the room of market makers and you see absolutely normal guys that you would not even look at on the street.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

One hour before the accumulation period, the cumulative volume on BUSD and USDT for FIDA was $320k. In 10 minutes accumulation period the value of ONLY AGGRESSIVE BUY ORDERS was almost $700k. Really strange. It looks like a pump without any reason.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

Great management of meetings is by far the easiest way to make a trading business (especially if you trade with a couple of people and on a significant number of instruments) more profitable and innovative. A couple of rules that I think are crucial in order to create a great

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

A trading lesson in a real-life: The last couple of weeks I missed the opportunity to buy a dream apartment, I missed buying sports tickets and rebought it with 5x price - all of it just because of the lack of confidence at the early stage of the negotiations or auction. The

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

@Trader_Dante Simple is better than complex.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

It seems that this drop was much harder than the last one that I analyzed.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

I strongly recommend @misterwootube , but the stronger recommendation goes toward thinking deeply about simple things. There is no good, long-term, sustainable knowledge (ie edge in trading) without thinking deeply about simple things. #trading #maths

Think deeply about simple things

Main site: http://www.misterwootube.com Second channel (for teachers): http://www.youtube.com/misterwootube2Connect with me on Twitter (http://twitter.com/mi...

www.youtube.com

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

New Year starts for me with reading Market Wizards. After 2022 I wonder how many of those traders are just guys that were total degen long gamblers in times when momentum trading lasted enough to make them rich. Last year our Market Wizards were Su Zhu, SBF, Barry, and Kwon.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

4 months

In most cases, experience is greatly OVERRATED. If you seek insights from an experienced individual, ensure they are deeply passionate about their field. A lot of people are highly risk-averse and spend most of the work time doing repetitive things. They are not the people that

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

I will create an ebook, a guide to algorithmic trading focusing on really practical things with topics from programming, through psychology to creating analyses. This ebook will be free, I will not collect anything from it.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

FTX has over $120mm in OXY. There is $80k to take from the orderbook on CEXes from OXY. Assuming that after the trade, liquidity and prices will revert to the same state within 6 hours (a strong assumption), they would spend over 1 year liquidating the position.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

2/10 Be more skeptical about creating legends or gurus. We buried a lot of gurus this year: SBF, Do Kwon, Su Zhu, etc. We do not even know how many traders lost all their money and still pretend to be great on Twitter. We are all children of bullrun - believe it or not.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Here we go: #1 : "This is a paradox. How can both sides think that they can out-smart the other? Someone must be wrong. Why do you think the other person is wrong, not you?" - an excellent quote about trading.

Eigenkatze

@cdlmeow

2 years

@ltrd_ what's the quote that stuck with you from this book? perhaps not meaningful or actionable directly something that just resonated and you were like huh, neat

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

These are the things that I found in being a market maker. You cannot stop anything, because, within one year, you would not be in the game. You have to constantly work hard, come up with new things, no matter if you have a bad period or you would like to go around the world.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

I have just read the book "Talent: How to identify energizers, creatives, and winners around the World". The book is really good for people that conduct some team or do interviews. I have always felt that I spent too much time on technical stuff even if I know that the real value

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Within a couple of hours, I will prepare a short analysis of what happened about 5.30 p.m. tick by tick. Probably a lot of things to analyze and visualize.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Read 2-3 books related to trading → Ernest Chan, Robert Carver, Irene Aldridge - these are the authors that you can explore at the beginning. Focus on the most important and fundamental topics related to the strategy creation.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

It is very nice to see, that I have 1000 followers. That came quite quickly. I hope that I will be able to provide you really fruitful and insightful content related to the trading, especially HFT.

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

I would like to create short book with problems and exercises in (crypto) AlgoTrading based on what I found useful as a self-made man. What would you see in such book? I would like to create exercises related to python, orderbook modeling, trades modeling, stationarity

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

I encourage you to listen to the podcast with @KrisAbdelmessih . I knew his thoughts mostly from reading Moontower and I like his point of view and the fact that he is far more experienced than me. Here you can hear great views on risk premia, options trading, volatility, and a

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Evening thought: How do you know what prediction interval you would like to have? We have no idea if feature X is a good signal for 5, 10 or 30sec return. Do you do models for different outputs (overfitting?) or look at paths after the signal? @therobotjames @macrocephalopod

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ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

4/10 Journaling I have always thought that journaling is overrated. A lot of great people wrote about journaling and a huge number of traders said that it is a key to success as a trader, but I could not believe it. I was wrong.

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46

ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

Be open-minded and remember to ask additional questions. Believe me, in the time of google and really good young programmers, quants etc. it is not a challenge to find an answer. The most important thing is to ask an appropriate question because only 1% can do it really good.

4

1

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ltrd

@ltrd_

8 months

Prepare yourself before the meeting! 💡 There are not a lot of things that can give you more leverage with minimum effort than preparing before a meeting. Even 10 minutes can be crucial. Review the topic of the meeting, check if your teammates (that will be at the meeting)

1

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

Today, I discussed with my friend what are the equivalents of sports training methods in learning (math, programming, trading). For example, I cannot find an equivalent for a great sport method to work on 70% of your max possibilities, then "rest" on 40%. Then you spend some

8

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ltrd

@ltrd_

8 months

One thing that I am proud of this year is the personal growth in terms of leadership skills. Our team grew to almost 50 people and I felt a big necessity to be better at those things. I was able to talk with a lot of managers from trading teams, through business departments,

2

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ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

There were various comments on my recent post regarding the impact of the market, so I feel the need to clarify some things. I believe that there is an advantage in the tweet I shared, so I will elaborate further: 1. This is not a clickbait or trolling tweet. 2. I always assume

ltrd

@ltrd_

1 year

If you do not have a market impact on your trades, then probably you trade wrong market or wrong strategy. It does not make sense to trade BTC if you have 500$ account - market impact is a pretty good approximation of the optimal market for you.

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104

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43

ltrd

@ltrd_

2 years

What do you think about this analysis? Do you see more things that we can check? What do you think about knowing "when to trade" rather than "what to trade"?

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