The bull market is here and basis trading is well and truly back, after the popularity of bybitpremiums I've made a new tool for okx
a reminder, it shows:
- funding rates averaged over different time periods
- basis
- spread
- loads of other useful info
[NEWS] As the Wagner coup approaches Moscow, Putin’s closest allies have sent him on a special expedition to see the titanic on their new carbon fibre submarine
Finally at a point to share this more broadly so here it is, my trading CLI tool
sharing the keys to tools to 10x your on chain balance, scalping degenerate meme coin flow
inspired by the old ftxpremiums, I wanted to learn a bit of js and test my web dev skills, so I made my own version for bybit
It shows
- funding rates averaged over different time periods
- basis
- spread
- OI
- a whole heap of other useful info
A reminder that corporate boat parties suck. DO NOT accept the invite
you can’t leave early, you’re stuck there with the fucking worst personalities imaginable. It’s a lesson in adverse selection. What kind of people do you think accept the invite???
WANKERS
A BOAT FULL
where the fuck does this sentiment come from lmao, are you all MacBoys writing shitty little node.js apps? thinkpads have to be the most common laptop choice of people who do real dev work
just use vim & ssh into a bigger box if you need the compute or a prod-like dev env???
heard rumors of bybit being insolvent
if i hear even a whisper of shit like that im fucking out
the prop desks in crypto are worse than teenage girls when it comes to gossip and i dont want to be collateral damage in a self fulfilling prophecy
Crypto beta is something I often see misunderstood by beginner traders on the timeline 📈
I've written an article about what it is, how it applies in crypto and how to use it. I've even written a jupyter notebook for you to calculate it on your favourite tokens!
1/2
gm, hope everyone enjoyed their easter holiday
here's a video i made of some ETH vol curves replayed from the weekend to the sound of chopin
options market making is art
have a good week 🫡
Want your computer to call trades out to you so you can LARP as a pit trader?
Here's the first in a series where I'll share helpful scripts for trading each week 👇 1/7
Options interview question:
You have a single European at-the-money option position with an IV of 16%, 1yr tenor, paying $2k a day in theta. You're hedged with the underlying to be delta neutral.
The underlying moves down 2% for the day.
1/2
Just got back from a month of skiing and I CANNOT WAIT to take an unhinged amount of stimulants and shit out some of the worst python code my colleagues have ever seen
time to grind baby, the modafinil is calling
you have:
- simple bots
- short vol position
- a creepy hat business
- a loris living in your attic rent free
I have
- autism
- modafinil
- a desire to win
- no cap maths business
we are not the same
whenever the question of ethics come up at our firm and we wonder if we should just blatantly tear someone a new one bc they're bad at trading
I point to the Sinclair quote I wrote on the wall like a true schizo
it's a good reminder, your counter-party is not your friend
I often go through periods of dopamine "detoxing" where I cut back dopamine sources to help reset and give me more focus. I go so far as to stop using my iPhone, quitting caffeine and trying to eat more bland food
Below is a picture of some of the things replacing my phone
1/7
The HFT boiz don't want you to know how profitable hummingbot is, so they psyops you into thinking you can't compete without rewriting the TCP/IP stack to use C++ template metaprogramming. Just spin up hummingbot & go play some golf
Your signals should be smooth.
Practically, you can just look at this qualitatively, (being fancier not worth the effort)
9/10 times the easiest thing to do is to just put an ewma on it
the less noisy your signals, the simpler your model can be
1/6 🧵
Finally at a point to share this more broadly so here it is, my trading CLI tool
sharing the keys to tools to 10x your on chain balance, scalping degenerate meme coin flow
lol, sometimes as an MM you wonder who's on the other end of your trade and how the market can be so inefficient
then people like this come along
thank you for keeping me in a job AJ, i'll be thinking of you and your clients from my yacht
I sold $262k of BTC & ETH for a client today on a major exchange.
The trade fee to sell was $4k and the execution price was so far below spot she lost another $3k instantly.
Jim Simons pays millions in bribes each year to American colleges to keep their statistics teaching poor quality.
If every American knew more stats, RenTec’s edge would disappear and markets would be more efficient.
Everything is rigged
My girlfriend is studying in the US and was forced to take a Stat class
This was one of the questions
Answer what you think the correct answer is in the poll below
been a while since I made any updates to my trading terminal ui
here's a demo of my orderbook script, I currently use kitty term to mutex multiple windows so i can see multiple books at once (spot & perp, perps cross exchange)
will be adding a column for my own orders next
Oh, sure, I’ll answer. Quant models take many small positions, often thousands so we can be wrong about a lot and still right (and vice versa). Also, we run a lot against benchmarks and if we’re long and underweight (negative on the stock) it shows up we own it and idiots think
how does 800% APR sound?
too good to be true?
well it's real, not only that, it's on a far more liquid token, with much lower trade costs.
here's a look at an actionable trade I'm doing, yet again found with
1/6
I've recently taken to the saying, "Don't ever take a fence down until you know the reason why it was put up"
so here's some unwarranted life advice for traders:
I don't take weekends off work, but about once a fortnight I'll get baked out of my mind, put a 90's movie on and order tiramisu on Uber eats.
I call it tiramisu day, it's the one thing holding my sanity together working 7 days a week.
today is tiramisu day, any movie recs?
would people like a series where I share small little helper scripts each week?
Reply below with what you’d want to see
I’ll post them as a GitHub gist
the answer for this can go many ways but I’ll share one, accompanied by my whiteboard diagram below
two main things we’re looking for here
1) an understanding of curve dynamics
2) knowledge of how margining impacts how we trade
1/10
options interview question:
you're fitting a spline to an illiquid options expiry, where the ATM bid/ask spread is 20% wide, where do you fit your curve to?
give reasoning
Hot tip from a market maker
If you’re weighing up whether to take on a pair with a wide spread, but avoid trading due to this. You’re missing out.
Wide spread means my guess is as good as yours as to what the fair price is, make a trade, see where things go
when evaluating a strategy, I implore you to use the following liquidity-competition matrix, find a strategy you can marry, aim for the wife zone
become the liquidity goblin
do you guys add in living expenses to your theta position?
if you reduce your cost of living it’s like you’re paying less theta, then you can take a bigger gamma position! and who doesn’t like that?
follow me for more life hacks
For those who don’t know yet, Gerko is alive and well, just on LinkedIn now
maybe if we all go over and harass him in the LinkedIn comments he will come back?
Can we all stop running around larping as if we’re changing the world with web3 and crypto?
There’s maybe 4 total devs doing something useful in this space, the rest of you are here because you’re greedy.
Stop lying to yourselves
Let’s say hypothetically I had a commercial quantity of vanilla beans (~100 kg grade-A beans > 24cm in length) where and to whom could I sell them?
Anyone know know any buyers? could do some serious size
- a good gym membership & coach
- a meal delivery service
- a cleaner
- regular sports massages
- a good GP/ concierge doctor
this is peak $/quality of life improvement rate before you hit diminishing returns. Better off ticking off these things before moving into a bigger house
I posted a strategy last week that had a 220% APR, I see strategies like this all the time that I can’t do because they can only be done with <200k so aren’t worth my time
I’ve created a newsletter to talk more about them
Every second post is free
hmm some things missing here;
where is price discovery happening? largely via options
what side of the trade is the MM on? largely selling
these "mispricings" are a result of where the flow is coming from, sell them down you'll be doing SIG & citsec a huge favor 1/9
I don’t think I’ve met a single successful quant who wasn’t autistic
if you’re a quant and haven’t yet been diagnosed, that’ll be $350 for your diagnosis thx
I accept cash in the mail or monero
heard rumors of woo x being insolvent
if i hear even a whisper of shit like that im fucking out
the prop desks in crypto are worse than teenage girls when it comes to gossip and i dont want to be collateral damage in a self fulfilling prophecy
we're so back it's not even funny, ETHBTC perp on bybit at 212% APR with a 38bp basis
ready to doink it back, easy hedge with short ETH perp, long BTC perp
say it with me folks:
you aren’t trading sizes big enough to care esoteric quant math bullshit
why are you trying to optimise the execution of a $10k position? why are you looking at non-linearities? just make the trade and get onto the next thing
Hard to describe the competition and number of firms trading on-chain on arbitrum. If you were as close to the coal face you’d be bullish $ARB like we at goblin cap are
Wintermute
ergonia
DFW - Soon
Citadel - Soon
[Goblin’s Real Job REDACTED]
Flow Traders
Retail flow so juicy
your edge should be big enough to not worry about higher order greeks, if it's not, you're either doing huge size/volume (if so you don't need advice from twitter)or you're doing something silly
worth considering if time could be better spent on your edge rather than your hedge
For the majority of the world, there is no need to immerse oneself in the complexities of second and third-order Greeks to succeed in trading volatility. Deciphering whether a particular option exhibits a certain amount of Vanna or Volga does not yield "alpha."
This knowledge
prop firm recruiters do a great job of nerd sniping post grads and then tell them they’ll get 10x their current remuneration to come solve it for them
contrary to some characterisations, prop research is fun and interesting, it’s not always selling your soul.
options interview question:
you're fitting a spline to an illiquid options expiry, where the ATM bid/ask spread is 20% wide, where do you fit your curve to?
give reasoning
Life is easy anon
Be born in a first world country.
Have rich parents.
Go to the right school.
Have autism.
Have them buy you a hooom.
Get a job at a prop shop.
Get a Covid FY bonus.
Start a crypto firm.
Spend your day shitposting.
Yachts.
Life is easy, anon.
Do the work.
Smile.
Be patient.
Tell her she’s pretty.
Tell him he’s strong.
Tell them they’re appreciated.
Compliment on effort.
Walk away from hatefulness.
Keep your home clean and uncluttered.
Open the windows.
Swim when you can.
Walk tall with confidence.
MFT quant starter pack
> split ergo keyboard
> trackball or fancy mouse
> cabled open back headphones
> standing desk
> physics PhD
> plays devils advocate for Julia & Mathematica
> thinks trading bonds is fun and cool
you know most trading firms have bans on employees PA trading the same markets, in case they trade against the firm
but after seeing
@toxic_intern
's PA i have made an exception and given him the green light, nothing to worry about on that front
not many of you know, but I was an AI/ML nerd & researcher before I got into trading, long before I got into crypto.
it pains me to see so many crypto bros jump ship over some hype from a LLM, but I have come to realise it's never about the tech
only the grift
currently operating on a delicate equilibrium of uppers and downers to maximise efficiency
top up with some nicotine and an energy drink, knock down with a hit of a CBD vape and some L-theanine
finishing the day off with 5mg of melatonin and 100mg of THC
when I see these, I can't help but think this has to be the lowest impact way to give away a $300mill
"Worlds richest trader scalps poor people's orders flow at HFT firm and uses profits to donate to world's richest university"
he has to be getting something from this right?
A little a project I have in progress, an on-chain trading cli powered by 1inch
Can execute on multiple chains, supports trigger orders, on-chain TWAPs & more
So
@toxic_intern
intern was asleep at the wheel and forgot to roll our agarwood futures position.
now we’ve had to take delivery of a couple 100 kgs of agarwood.
would anyone perhaps know any spot buyers so we can try recoup some costs?