UK must remain in full lockdown until June to avoid worst effects of
#covid19UK
, gov leading epidemiology adviser said.
Sr gov figures more optimistic, suggesting restrictions could be eased sooner than June: peak of crisis expected in week of April 12.
UK & EU are nearing the brink of no-deal after Macron blocked an extension to Brexit & preparations began for Oct 30 emergency summit.
Times: source warned a delay to Brexit beyond Thursday was “not a given” unless there was new political movement in UK
Singapore's TraceTogether app uses bluetooth to record distance between users & duration of encounters. People consent to give info which is encrypted & deleted after 21 days. Health ministry contacts users in case of probable contact with infected person
Professor Ferguson said: “We’re going to have to keep these measures [full lockdown] in place, in my view, for a significant period of time probably until end of May, maybe even early June. May is optimistic.”
When lifted, enforce some forms of social distancing for months more.
Cabinet sources said two criteria would have to be met before Johnson could lift the lockdown:
the number of new cases must be stable or falling;
and the critical care capacity of NHS hospitals must not be exceeded.
UK manufacturers such as Vauxhall, Airbus, Rolls-Royce, Jaguar Land Rover, will 3D-print parts for ventilators to treat coronavirus patients.
More than 60 companies responded to govt's call for help to produce 20,000 ventilators in as little as 2 weeks.
Pfizer and Moderna vaccines produce immunity for years, study suggests | The latest findings add to growing evidence suggesting that many people may not need a booster dose as long as the virus & variants do not evolve much beyond their current forms
Biographies, history & the ideas that can help address our biggest economic challenges are found in my book:
The
@greateconomists
: How Their Ideas Can Help Us Today
(The Times's Best Business Books of 2018; Newsweek's Best Fiction & Non-Fiction of 2018)
Guardian reports that EU sources say that the UK will not be saved from crashing out of the EU via an extension of the article 50 negotiations unless there is a major realignment in UK politics, most likely through a second referendum or general election
IMF abandons public debt concerns and calls on governments to invest
The fund says there has rarely been a better time to increase public investment
Particularly on digital infrastructure and green technology:
One theory is COVID-19 damages the autonomic nervous system, eg digestion, sweating, sleep, heart rate blood pressure.
“the body is still damaged even when virus is long gone..it's too soon to know whether..will clear up eventually or whether..will continue as a chronic disease”
This will immediately halt the movement of goods through the so-called UK landbridge from Ireland to continental markets. It is also likely to disrupt freight coming in the opposite direction: UK will still allow trucks to enter from France, many drivers will not want to travel
Despite the commonly used term global value chains, value chain activity has always had strong regional characteristics, with a high share of value chain activity evolving around North American, European and Asian hubs (citing
@BaldwinRE
& Lopez-Gonzalez)
Trump to drop preferential trade status allowing for tariff-free goods access for India and Turkey after India failed to assure US of ‘equitable and reasonable’ market access & Turkey wasn’t sufficiently economically developed
Times: Labour & SNP moved towards pact that would seek to oust PM; high alert for Labour to table a vote of no confidence in PM when MPs return next month
McDonnell, shadow chancellor, said Labour would not block a 2nd referendum on Scottish independence
WaPo sources: President Trump is preparing to impose a package of $60 billion in annual
#tariffs
against China by Friday, following through on a long-time threat that he says will punish China for IPR infringements, US jobs, etc
Over last 5 decades, middle-wage jobs diminished in the US as wage inequality increased. Research finds no evidence that either computerisation or automation (often cited as a source of both trends) produced employment polarisation or more wage inequality.
Delegates after Nevada’s Democratic caucus:
Bernie Sanders 34
Pete Buttigieg 23
Joe Biden 8
Elizabeth Warren 8
Amy Klobuchar 7
Michael Bloomberg 0
Tom Steyer 0
#marr
To elaborate: PM May said she rejected President Trump's suggestion to sue the EU instead of negotiate with them;
she added that he advised once you start negotiating, then do not walk away or else you're "stuck".
So "no deal" should not be an option in
#Brexit
Times: Jonathan Van-Tam, deputy chief medical officer, told MPs last week that stage three trials of the vaccine from Oxford University/AstraZeneca mean a mass rollout is on the horizon as early as December.
European Commission to bring forward plans to move to a system of “qualified majority voting” for tax policies at May summit. Currently, tax changes require unanimity so 28 nations each has a veto; could affect UK during Brexit transition if veto removed
Tests on French health workers with mild forms of coronavirus show that 98% of them developed antibodies powerful enough to neutralise the virus a month later.
NHS app will go live as a vaccine passport for international travel from Monday, but only for those who have had both doses.
People who do not use smartphones can phone 119 for a paper letter confirming their vaccine status.
While 87% of employees in the UK said that they were productive when they worked remotely, this was at odds with the 80% of managers who said it was “challenging” to believe that they really were productive, dubbed “productivity paranoia”.
Piketty’s research: In Britain, “high education voters now strongly support Labour, while high-income voters strongly support Conservative.” The same pattern is found in France, US.
Mario Draghi, ex-head of ECB
Much higher public debt levels will become permanent feature of our economies & will be accompanied by private debt cancellation. Proper role of the state to deploy its balance sheet to protect against..national emergencies.
Honda's supply chain:
Within the customs union, 5-24 hours to purchase a part from rest of EU
Outside the customs union, 2-9 days due to new import declarations, then 2 sets of customs clearance/border checks at EU & UK ports
#Brexit
#cars
#supplychain
There is as much financial wealth held by rich Russians abroad – in the UK, Switzerland, Cyprus, and similar offshore centres – as is held by the entire Russian population in Russia itself
India plans to introduce a law to ban private cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin and put in place a framework for an official digital currency to be issued by the central bank
Most of us who test positive are isolating. 1 in 6 of us are still working from home, with no plans to change. Lots still wear masks; others are just being generally careful. Sage estimates this is reducing transmission by up to 45%.
Moldova joined half a dozen nations to block the UK re-entry to WTO Government Procurement Agreement (smooths the bidding process on public contracts).
Why the hold-up? Moldova’s economic counselor to the WTO & her team were denied entry to UK last year
Before WWII, Latin America’s average income was about 40% of the US, on a par with Southern Europe, more than double Southeast Asia
Today, Latin American average income has fallen to below 30% of US average. S Europe’s has grown to more than 50%, SE Asia has risen to roughly 45%
For the past five years,
#LatAm
's economic growth averaged 0.66% — well below the global average. From 2000 to 2016 the region grew 2.8% compared with 4.8% for 56 other emerging economies excluding China
Times: May’s chief Brexit negotiator has told ministers there's no chance of striking a bespoke trade deal with EU; must choose between Norway-style deal in which UK remains in single market but has to accept EU rules or a free-trade agreement
Danish benefits are worth more than 80% of previous earnings after 6 months out of work vs 60% across the rich world & less than 50% in UK. Denmark’s unemployment rate is lower than the rich-world average and its working-age employment rate is higher.
“If you have a problem and you can't find a solution, you meet again tomorrow and you keep talking until you find a solution. You can disagree with behavior or a particular position, but you do not resort to calling an opponent worthless.”
#KofiAnnan
Kofi Annan was a guiding force for good. I join the world in mourning his loss. In these turbulent and trying times, his legacy as a global champion for peace will remain a true inspiration for us all.
My new book on the lives of
@greateconomists
& solving our big challenges:
Great Economists: How Their Ideas Can Help Us Today
UK:
What Would the Great Economists Do? How 12 Brilliant Minds Would Solve Today's Biggest Problems
US:
New research from Stanford shows that
#productivity
per hour declines sharply when the workweek exceeds 50 hours, and productivity drops off so much after 55 hours that you don't get anything out of working more.
Mastercard will increase fees more than fivefold when a British shopper uses a debit or credit card to buy from an EU-based company
Mastercard told merchants that the EU-mandated cap no longer applies to some transactions post-Brexit
Top 10 Most Annoying Buzzwords
1. Circle back
2. Work hard, play hard
3. Boots on the ground
4. Let's table this
5. Synergy
6. Put a pin in it
7. Get ducks in a row
8. Low-hanging fruit
9. Reinvent the wheel
10. Throw it up and see what sticks
Switzerland approved the text of a trade agreement with the UK aiming to maintain existing economic and trade relations with the country after
#Brexit
- essentially replicates the existing trade arrangement - and applies regardless of what happens with the withdrawal agreement
Switzerland and the UK have struck a bilateral trade agreement to support existing commercial and economic relations between the two countries post-Brexit. This will apply regardless of the eventual Brexit scenario.
#mindthegap
#SwissUKrelations
People going to pubs, bars, restaurants will have to provide their names & contact details under plans being drawn up by ministers.
Gov exp to announce easing of restrictions from July 4, expected to include opening of hairdressers, hotels, leisure sector.
1975–19 period: research estimates that the fraction of multinational profits (made outside of the headquarter country) shifted to tax havens increased from less than 2% in the 1970s to 37% in 2019, resulting in a tax loss of roughly €250 billion.
PM is tomorrow expected to sign off plans to quarantine all international travellers. Hotel quarantine will take up to 2 weeks to implement & cost those entering the UK more than £1,000 for 10-night stay.
The policy has the support of most of the cabinet.
Number of publicly traded firms in the US has declined in nearly every year since 1997, when there were 7,500, to roughly 3,600 now. At the same time, the number of initial public offerings (IPOs) has fallen from more than 300 to just over 100 per year
Most annoying office jargon of 2018
1. Touch base
2. No-brainer
3. Punch a puppy
4. Game changer
5. Pick it up and run with it
6. Mission statement
7. We're on a journey
8. If you don't like it get off the bus
9. Run this up the flagpole
10. Lipstick on a pig
For Wall Street Banks in London; One big Brexit beneficiary is Dublin, where Bank of America, Citigroup and Barclays are expanding their ranks. “Dublin is our headquarters for our European bank now, full stop,” said vice chairwoman of Bank of America
Germany will issue coronavirus antibody certificates to allow quarantined to re-enter society
Researchers to test thousands for immunity as Germany plans exit strategy for pandemic lock down.
Great Influenza Pandemic arose in 3 main waves, the first in spring 1918, the second and most deadly from September 1918 to January 1919, and the third from February 1919 through the remainder of the year (with some countries having a fourth wave in 1920).