light @lightcrypto Twitter profile

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light

@lightcrypto

2 years

think 2023 will be more about revanche than echoes

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Been a pretty heavy buyer of BTC and ETH over the last 24 hours. Time to panic was weeks ago.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

/1 Where are the Bulls’ Balls? A thread on the cryptocurrency markets over the last month and into the end of the year:

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@lightcrypto

3 years

/1 I am notorious for being early to trend reversals. I tend to make it work because I exit and re-enter repeatedly. But on a move of this magnitude, no amount of exiting and re-entering saved me from a material drawdown.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

BITCOIN FUTURES ETF SAID NOT TO FACE SEC OPPOSITON: BBG

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@lightcrypto

3 years

People really are capitulating into one of the most stacked bids I've ever seen, and into a key support. Emotional. Will be punished shortly I think.

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@lightcrypto

2 years

If you've gotten this far, you need to be expressing some long position. It either bottoms here or at $30k, but in 3 months it won't matter. "If you don't believe me or don't get it, I don't have time to try to convince you, sorry."

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@lightcrypto

3 years

keep selling. you vomiting all your positions smells putrid, but it is profitable for someone else. And the people who sold $60ks are buying your capitulation, while the people who were bullish back then and bearish now are encouraging you to feel good as you burn your capital.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Longed BTC and ETH

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@lightcrypto

11 months

imagine that in the long run this will have a salutory effect on the market; a form of catharsis allowing the space to look forward, leaving the sins of the last cycle, as much as we can, in the rear view mirror

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@tier10k

11 months

[DB] FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried Found Guilty of Defrauding FTX Customers by Jury in New York: Reuters

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@lightcrypto

9 months

market saw a glimpse of the future there, it may finally be ETH's turn

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@lightcrypto

4 years

MUSK: BITCOIN PAID TO TESLA WON'T BE CONVERTED TO FIAT

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Don't really like to speak in deterministic terms, but if you sold here I think you just sold the bottom.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Being bearish hear on BTC, ETH, and strong alts is about as absurd as being bullish BTC in the $60,000s. Regardless of whether the cycle is over, the move has gotten so overextended on such thin liquidity and retail panic shorting that a squeeze is now almost a certainty.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Relevant story - first crypto trade I ever took was to buy 2000 ETH at $12.xx. I panic sold it a couple months later on the back of the Bitfinex hack and DAO hack coming in succession. Sold at $7.xx, which marked the stone bottom, before ETH 200x'd.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Some of you really have turned the avoidance of making money while being in this space for years into an art. If the same "system" that led you to be bullish at the local top now inclines you to be bearish, maybe you should get a new system. Seeing a trend is not alpha.

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@lightcrypto

2 years

kisses $30k in a week

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@lightcrypto

3 years

/2 To all of you who faced losses in part because of my views, I am deeply sorry.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Relief rally will turn into ruh roh I didn't buy the bottom rally

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@lightcrypto

3 years

don't you dare talk to me if you didn't sell 60s and are thinking about capitulating now

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Now that you're done capitulating, squeeze

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@lightcrypto

3 years

$10,000 to 3 people, randomly chosen, who retweet the post below and tag @trader1sz winners chosen end of the month. note that im spending my own money rather than charging you for subscriptions.

ZachXBT

@zachxbt

3 years

I’m glad we can agree on this ser

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@lightcrypto

3 years

there's a reason people who draw lines on charts don't have any money, even after years of participating in the greatest wealth program history has ever seen.

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@lightcrypto

2 years

Aptos dev team wallet has started feeding the Korean ducks, ~$20mm in spot sent to Binance in the last hour. $1b in inventory remains in the wallet. The tightly controlled supply has activated.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Short LUNAUSDT from $98. swing failure double top in an alt bear market and narrative is bankrupt - artificial ponzi yield when no one wants to borrow stables

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Starting to lever up long here on BTC and ETH. 50% drawdowns are indicative of full capitulation, as is sentiment, with retail panic dumping into low liquidity on the weekend.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

I doubt there's spot inventory left to sell at $40k. What was going to be sold has been sold already in a 2 month downtrend capped off by a macro panic. Also doubt buyers in the $30k area bought in order to sell here. Similar in many ways to the $6k level in 2019.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Some context: Miller started buying BTC at $200, let it ride all the way to the 2017 top, exited, and bought back in at $30k to the tune of 50% of his personal account. Man's an absolute savage, and he did it despite the generational disadvantage boomers face on BTC.

Clay Finck

@Clay_Finck

3 years

Billionaire Value Investor Bill Miller has 50% of his personal portfolio in #Bitcoin and bought a "fair amount" when it dipped to $30k last year. He's owned it since it was $200. @PrestonPysh @edstromandrew @JeffBooth @APompliano

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@lightcrypto

3 years

angrily longing w the rest of you guys

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Buyer on Coinbase going nuts here as equities continue to implode. Makes it obvious how little is on the books.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

January likely begins with over-eager retail shorts getting lit up.

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@lightcrypto

4 years

There's two types of people in crypto: The ones who think Sam Bankman-Fried is this well-meaning Nice Guy with a heart of gold, and the ones who know he's Keyser fucking Söze.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Of all people, I have a bit of credibility saying this because I am often a bear and have made money being one - real money is never made on the short side, nor on the short-term side. The guys who won a bit on the way down will now miss the real money made on the way up.

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@lightcrypto

2 years

Bitfinex whales are buying your capitulation again anon, like they did in July last year twap in addition to limit bid walls

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@lightcrypto

3 years

it was so obvious that 40 was it, you console yourself I swore I'd go all in when it got here 2 months ago, why didn't i if only if it wasn't for those order flow traders but why do they still have to sell courses for $300 a month when they make so much trading?

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@lightcrypto

4 years

Bitcoin is experiencing the beginnings of a sell-side liquidity crisis. It has always been like oil on crack. Production is entirely inelastic, demand meanwhile, is reflexive.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

same people that were bullish back then have now capitulated. time will tell, but have fairly high confidence that we've seen the bottom on BTC and ETH.

Radoo

@adupopa

3 years

Legend @lightcrypto Called the top perfectly

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@lightcrypto

5 years

If I had to choose just one lesson to keep after years of trading crypto, it would be this: When people start trotting out the miner capitulation narratives, make sure you're long BTC.

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@lightcrypto

2 years

Might be tempting to capitulate to the siren song of bearish influencers after the rout of last week. But, find courage in the fact that every person I know who has made 9 figures or more from this space is adding to longs in this move down.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

shorted CME launch in 17, shorted Coinbase listing in 2021 take it from my experience, it's not a sell the news event when a large part of the market is worried it may be a sell the news event.

Fomocap

@fomocapdao

3 years

Can ETF approval be CME 2018 event? #Bitcoin

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Out of this world relative strength, ETHUSD (blue) vs NASDAQ (white):

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@lightcrypto

3 years

/3 But if you managed to survive, one thing I've learned from being in this space is that these collapses open new space, for new entrants to enter at lower prices and with stronger hands, for new narratives to take shape. This has happened before and it will happen again.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

these violent delights have violent ends

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@lightcrypto

3 years

People gloating about having "called it." If you're so smart and have been in crypto for this long, why are you still poor?

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@lightcrypto

2 years

if you're a bear you have to be kind of disappointed where BTCUSD is trading after the bottom fell out on equities today

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@lightcrypto

3 years

woe to the people who expect the market to give them what they want rather than having the wisdom to take what they are given

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@lightcrypto

3 years

big money buying before fomc think about why that is anything but a hawkish surprise means up, as previous times

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Everyone larping like they're at model UN meanwhile, Finex whales don't play, 45k ETH added in last 2 hours

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Everyone as happy, fat, and complacent as suckling pigs. Unnoticed as they suckle on the teat of alts - the Ethereum Foundation shipped $90mm to Kraken to sell and the Bitfinex whale claimed $2b in ETH margin longs, most likely with the intent to quietly exit stage left.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

This bull market had its first real test. And the large players who distributed when Bitcoin was in the fifty and sixty thousands showed up to rebuy with cash today. They will most likely be right, as they were when they sold.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

can just see the little rats waking up and figuring out how to save themselves. if you understand how a rat thinks, all they know is to scurry for their survival. how do we deal with rats? we shine light on them. if @trader1sz can show 10mm in pnl lifetime, I'll donate a mill.

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@lightcrypto

2 years

re binance vs ftx

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@lightcrypto

3 years

More likely than not, this is the playbook on alts now. We were all dancing until the music stopped. You have to think a 60%+ crash in altland is the music stopping. Insiders will now take any bounce/liquidity as an opportunity to liquidate bags they got for next to nothing.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

one day you might realize that not losing money when you are wrong is much sweeter than making money when you are right anon

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@lightcrypto

3 years

The sooner you accept that what you think makes sense does not matter, the better for your PNL. If it isn't a simulation, it certainly is a theatre.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

32% haircut to total derivatives open interest, funding structure reset after an orgy of a long weekend. Buying versus forced sellers is almost always a good strategy. If had to guess, dip feels more like a cleansing than a reversal.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

every big boy has already or is in the process of derisking. please dont let your greed cognitive dissonance u into being angry when people sound caution. protect urself so ur there next time around instead of wanting it all now and getting curb stomped.

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@lightcrypto

6 years

The first shakeout is by way of volatility. The second, but more painful, is from the drip, drip of boredom. -unknown

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@lightcrypto

2 years

/1 Think GMT is about to walk off the edge of a cliff in short order. Built a full short position in the $3.80s. The token ran up 40x from Binance listing in 2 months on a strong Axie mimic narrative and incredible app growth metrics:

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@lightcrypto

3 years

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Powell has been a steadfast soothsayer in his remarks as far as I can remember, yet you lot panicked into it. Crypto twitter jumping on the macro bandwagon has been the one sentiment indicator that still works. Anything other than a jaw-dropping CPI tomorrow means up.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

"the main purpose of the stock market is to make fools of as many men as possible." -Baruch

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@lightcrypto

3 years

The same vapid thought processes for being bearish here were being peddled with the exact opposite conclusion at the top. Stop being a sheep and learn from your mistakes. Wasn't the whole idea to buy low and sell high?

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@lightcrypto

2 years

The market now lacks a viable schelling point narrative. Yet its desire for one is palpable. It wants to make back what it lost. We will suspend disbelief in an effort to do so once a vehicle emerges to carry this latent desire. In the wreckage are nascent roots.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

The real game is gambling. And it was all along. When you see assets turn over their entire market caps in volume in 24 hours, the top follows shortly after.

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@lightcrypto

2 years

/1 some thoughts on the LUNC burn catalyst — Or, how I learned to stop worrying and love the pump and dump.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

/1 Binance BTCUSDT perpetuals are a powderkeg. i. retail (heavy long prior to crash at 5:1 ratio) was wiped out in crash (OI shed 30%+) ii. Open interest up 50% since then. Retail has not resumed its bullishness (see global l/s), meaning whales are absorbing on the long side.

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@lightcrypto

2 years

expect people will shift from a comatose state of fear to the realization that tens of billions of $ in forced spot selling (LFG, 3AC, lenders, miners) were a capitulation/risk transfer rivaled only by the Covid crash

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@lightcrypto

2 years

The market now lacks a viable schelling point narrative. Yet its desire for one is palpable. It wants to make back what it lost. We will suspend disbelief in an effort to do so once a vehicle emerges to carry this latent desire. In the wreckage are nascent roots.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

expiry and then up

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@lightcrypto

3 years

/6 And for those asking, suffered more of a drawdown than I would have preferred. Still held my margin. Part of the game. Think today's forced selling marked a credible point for a bottom, but anything can happen in a market heaving under forced unwind like this.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Lot of crypto games launching "next year," but the real game will be a first person shooter. What I mean by that is that VCs who bought at 1/1000th the price retail can will be racking up headshots as their tokens unlock.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

ETHUSD long here is the most compelling spot since the November top. down 40%+ with a low established at $2200 so you're not catching as much of a knife Finex billionaire bid tailwind Idiosyncratic strength when everyone is in Ukraine myopia If there's a long this is it.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

ETHUSD spot orderbooks absurdly lopsided in favor of bidders; multi-exchange overlaid ob favors bid 5 to 1 in the area of interest. Passive bidders will turn active in any baseline/positive FOMC scenario given how many derisked due to fed fears or sold because price went down.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Credit Suisse's Pozsar ending his "Bretton Woods III" note, "...and Bitcoin (if it still exists then) will probably benefit from all this." Can't help but think we stand now beyond the point of no return.

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@lightcrypto

2 years

The longer ETHUSD holds up post-Merge, the more people begin to reconsider thinking that this a "sell the news" event. The uncertainty in execution is now cleared. People's fear was more a reflection of under-allocation than of the soundness of their concerns.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Crypto "influencers" are a fucking cancer. Remember to tar and feather them when the bear market comes.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

cursed tweet

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@lightcrypto

3 years

it was so obvious that 40 was it, you console yourself I swore I'd go all in when it got here 2 months ago, why didn't i if only if it wasn't for those order flow traders but why do they still have to sell courses for $300 a month when they make so much trading?

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@lightcrypto

3 years

dark arts in crypto markets, absorption at an obvious breakdown spot, it doesn't break down, what happens next? hand of god. pay attention for spots where what you think should happen does not.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Seeing 40% of people guess that 2022 will be a down year (in an asset class that has been in a 13 year high-timeframe bull market) makes me want to throw away all my bearish scruples.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Higher relative level of stables on exchanges available than in the July bottom and nearly 4 times the expression of bid vs ask interest on cumulative spot order books. But some of the same people who bet the farm in November now capitulated and are pipe dreaming to rebuy lower.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

this account has become some sort of kitsch exercise in futility. goodbye until either the bottom of the bear market or new highs. hope you make it to the other side anon.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

/5 There were those who gave good market color throughout this move. Find them and learn from them. I was, unfortunately, not one of those. But these moments are the most valuable you face as a trader, because the lessons sear in most deeply.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

If you think Mt. Gox claims will be paid out this year, you can take whatever source you got that information from and throw it into the trash bin.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

agree

Zen 🎈

@Zen_Trades1

3 years

Bitfinex laying down bids Retail selling into the lows ahead of FOMC Meeting with funding negative across the board Feels like we're going to get a Buy The News event #Bitcoin $BTC

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@lightcrypto

3 years

The market crash in 2021 will happen way faster than in 2018.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

If only someone had told you in advance that whales were unloading maybe you wouldn't be such a milktoast now that whales are accumulating.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

every big boy has already or is in the process of derisking. please dont let your greed cognitive dissonance u into being angry when people sound caution. protect urself so ur there next time around instead of wanting it all now and getting curb stomped.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

the reek of fear everywhere. disgusting. brave at $60,000s, neutered now confidently bleating downside price targets that would make 2018 blush

Will

@WClementeIII

3 years

Perpetual futures open interest relative to Bitcoin's market cap is now at the highest it's been since July 25th

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@lightcrypto

2 years

I heard you say once that a lie is sweet in the beginning and bitter in the end and truth is bitter in the beginning and sweet in the end

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@lightcrypto

2 years

Candlestick watchers, line drawers, and other similar cave dwellers will once again be baffled after thinking they are trading BTCUSD and finding out the truth. Think VIX comes off post-FOMC, thin liquidity and options will do the rest. Sell the rumor buy the news, again.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Metaverse alts are realizing 200 to 300 vols. Do not trade them on high leverage or you are gambling. If you don't understand this post, you are gambling.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Bitfinex whale ramping aggression: - accelerating position build - ~700 BTC in limit bids inserted

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@lightcrypto

3 years

/1 It is hard to stomach views that colored tokens of rocks exchanging hands for millions of dollars are anything but a gauche manifestation of collective madness and a short-lived re-rating of perceived wealth that will reverse too quickly to be realized as profit.

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@lightcrypto

2 years

In hindsight, took a lot of mental contortion to find reasons to justify being long on the way down to here. Now, here, it finally makes intuitive sense with no need for mental justifications. I am comfortable that we've seen full capitulation in the short/mid term.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

this is so far beneath me but fuck it I'm drunk, leeches should be called out so might as well do it

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Think cardinal sin people are making is conflating price weakness driven by structurally bearish eoy flows (that they have little visibility on and which will abate) with their own meth-trailer-concoction macro fears.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

/1 Technical analysis is the lowest alpha generating framework of the different viable approaches to markets. It is only incredibly popular because of how accessible it is for retail participants. It is only viable because some participants use it. It is circular.

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@lightcrypto

2 years

was easier for me to see this years ago - I didn't hitch my cart to the FTX story. but I am still in shock at the extent of the depravity, the cold sneer of the crimes. it is never easy to see the rats scurry as the ship sinks, and many friends are left irreparably harmed.

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@lightcrypto

4 years

There's two types of people in crypto: The ones who think Sam Bankman-Fried is this well-meaning Nice Guy with a heart of gold, and the ones who know he's Keyser fucking Söze.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

maybe we shouldn't take your trading prowess so seriously when after years of "trading" you have to resort to living off of subscriptions and getting on your knees and tweeting about random alt scams for $3k a load

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Spot liquidity has evaporated since yesterday's leg down. Derivatives now, even more than in the last couple weeks, wag the dog. Think we see some wild moves in the next couple weeks.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

Can take a pause now from markets, and be human — my heart weighs for all those plunged into this needless war, for those who have lost loved ones and their lives as they knew them. Markets shake these things off inhumanely. Remember to hold on to yours.

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@lightcrypto

3 years

hold a rubber ball under water for a bit and see what happens

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@lightcrypto

3 years

FTX bidder hungry again, couple thousand BTC in bids advertised; given what happened last time these got filled, most likely there is more back behind what is visible. Paul Rotter school of thought.

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