Retired - which means I have more time to pay attention to details. Uranium, commodities, macroeconomics and classic cars. No advice - simply opinions.
Hold up: ✋A 10% Cut to Expected World
#Uranium
Supply is the same amount that triggered the last bull contracting cycle ‘06-‘12 when the Cigar Lake Mine flooded. The overall S/D setup is far better this cycle. This occurs right on que for fall contracting season. Cheers 🥂
Yes... this -13.65 Million lbs cut to
#Kazakhstan
's
#Uranium
Production in 2025 results in nearly a 10% cut to total expected global
#U3O8
supply in 2025 vs the previous guidance announced last year.🌏⛏️⏬🗜️
#UraniumSqueeze
🤠🐂
If you sweat day-to-day moves in equities, STOP & THINK: THE ONLY BRAND NEW
#URANIUM
MINE under construction IN THE WORLD (Global’s Dasa) won’t ship ore until Q1 2026. And, when it does, it will only make up 9% of a growing ANNUAL SUPPLY DEFICIT.
Okay, enough yelling for today.
Long but EPIC so hang with me. Someone called the tragic flooding in Northern Kazakhstan “Close, but no Cigar (Lake).” That’s both clever and true (see KAP’s link below.) HOWEVER, from the standpoint of the future supply of
#Uranium
(the fuel for
#Nuclear
Energy) we’ve already
As in 2014, it will not affect production. Something is certain, there is no need for natural disasters or sanctions. Operational risks, lack of know-how, transportation issues, payments, insurance, ... the worldwide
#uranium
chain is broken
Imho: Brilliant! Why be unsure for 3 years as to how difficult it will be to get a
#Uranium
Waiver? Tenex says “show us you can get one within 60 days or your contract is cancelled.” Those who were hoping for an Ru export ban - you basically just got it.
A research firm that is popular w hedge funds just went long
#uranium
(via URA) a moment ago. That’s as much as I’m saying - I don’t want to get kicked off their list.
“9 out of the next 12 years (of
#uranium
required) isn’t under contract (yet).”
“Over the next several years, a couple billion pounds need to be contracted.”
—Mike Alkin, CIO Sachem Cove
@ 25 Minute mark.
#Nuclear
ODD LOT ALERT: When I see a specific odd lot of
#uranium
pounds purchased by SPUT, I believe it suggests that particular seller’s current inventory has been completely cleaned out. Since inception I recall this happening roughly five times. Bullish.
Thanks to articles in the NY Times, Bloomberg, Washington Post, CNBC and others… Today is the day many new investors will be introduced to the concept that AI’s insatiable power needs can only be satisfied by the energy density offered by
#Uranium
via baseload
#Nuclear
.
A huge potential catalyst for
#Uranium
is something very few are talking about lately. The book value of KAP (per Guru Focus) is $3.2B. This potential contract w China (theoretically still in negotiation) is shareholder-pre-authorized to go as high as 200% of BV or up to $12.4B👇
📰Shareholders of world's largest
#Uranium
miner Kazatomprom $KAP have approved by a 91.91% vote the concluding of a major yet-to-be-announced long term supply contract with China's CNNC.🇰🇿⚛️⛏️🛒🇨🇳🗳️✅ The approval also allows further transactions with CNNC of up to "200% of the
“
#Uranium
could triple from here.”
—Famed investment author Lawrence McDonald: 18 minute mark. He also says electricity demand from AI alone is forecast to quadruple.
12-minute mark: “CANNOT find a single entity that would sell you a half million pounds (of
#uranium
in the spot market) right now - THAT I AM QUITE CERTAIN OF.”
-Per Jander, WMC.
In case you missed it.
Personal: Some of y’all know we live in Asheville which has been devastated by flooding that surpassed records set in 1917. We’re fine/house is fine - we’re on a hill. Just got electricity. No running water. No internet but we can text. I’ll be back soon my
#Uranium
friends.
Yee-Haw!🤠🐂 The US Senate has passed bill S.870, which includes the history-making “Accelerating Deployment of Versatile, Advanced
#Nuclear
for
#CleanEnergy
(ADVANCE) Act”🏇⚛️⚡️🏗️🇺🇸 by a vote of 88 to 2🗳️✅ and now goes to President Biden to be signed into law.📜✍️
#Uranium
🌊🏄
About a week ago Cameco put out an $800k RFP for Alkali needed at CCJ-KAP-JV-Inkai. Someone educated me that it would be used as pre-leech to make the acid work better. Point is - you wouldn’t need that if the acid was still working well. Then this👇
There's new rumours our there that $KAP Kazatomprom has overproduced their older assets (leached too agressively for too long with acid) and have depleted them.
If true (I doubt it's as bad as Kuppy writes tbh), that would totaly and completely break the
#uranium
market...
Keep in mind that this is a double-positive because it frees up $2.7 Billion in funding allocated to strengthening the
#Uranium
Fuel Supply Chain. Among other things, we should see more RFPs from the Dept of Energy for US-origin pounds (at premium prices.) 🤠
You might read “67m lbs” and think oh well that’s across 12 years so it’s not a big deal. But LOOK AGAIN: This is 10% more U308 than everything SPUT has stacked since its inception. That’s one big damn
#uranium
order! 💥💥💥
Boom!🎆 Cameco $CCO $CCJ & Energoatom Agree on Commercial Terms to Supply
#Ukraine
’s Full Natural UF6
#Uranium
Needs through 2035 in a 12-year deal of up to 67+ Million lbs
#U3O8
🐳 largest contract in Cameco's history!📜🤠🐂
#mining
#Nuclear
#Canada
🌊🏄
Wife asked: Why the
#uranium
rally? So I start in… Maybe UK life extensions? Or six new reactor builds announced for France? Or $500m DOE reactor fuel rfp & the 300m UK reactor fuel investment? Or positive articles in FT & WSJ? Or the coming ban? Or rising spot price? Etc😆
Hearing words like this from any President - directly addressing the importance of
#Nuclear
Power and friendly sources of
#Uranium
was unimaginable a few short years ago.
🤠🐂"For too long we've relied on imported
#Uranium
to power
#Nuclear
reactors. Imports from places like
#Russia
we can't trust at all. My administration is working to change all that. We're investing $3.4 Billion in producing advanced nuclear fuel right here in America."🇺🇸⚛️⛏️💰
@quakes99
WMC said huge increase to demand as the market moves from underfeeding to overfeeding. And regardless sanctions, fuel buyers are already seeking alternative suppliers. It’s one thing to read this on Twitter but this is from people actively buying millions of $ of uranium daily!
“(
#Uranium
) Spot market is very thin on both sides” “If a 500k lb order was placed today, you couldn’t find the material and we’d be back over $100 (lb).”
There are a few names you should always listen to — Bram is one of them.
h/t
@capnek123
✅ In case you missed it (I nearly did,) so far this week, another quarter million pounds of
#uranium
have been scooped up by Per Jander to be permanently sequestered. 🤠
Ker-pow!💥🥊 US
@ENERGY
Secretary calling for the US to build 200+ more large gigawatt scale
#Nuclear
reactors.⚛️🏗️👷🇺🇲 F-ing unbelievable!🤯
#Uranium
demand to the moon, stars and beyond!⛏️🛸🌜✨🌌🤠🐂
We’re blessed with a treasure trove of
#Uranium
experts who devote their lives to the sector along with financial institutions and traders who specialize in this space (most of whom personally experienced the previous bull cycle.)
So if you’re going to take advice from people
The
#Uranium
investing community owes such a debt of gratitude to the Professor. He is putting down a marker here — so read it, or you’ll wonder later what happened😬. Enjoy Spring on the island Sir and I hope the recharge occurs swiftly. 🍻
📝Well, folks... today the supply vs demand fundamentals supporting a decade long bull run for
#Uranium
#mining
#stocks
are the best in 50 years🏆 going all the way back to the first
#Nuclear
Renaissance of the 1970's.🦕🌅⚛️🤠🐂
Never in my wildest imagination did I see this day
I really enjoyed being interviewed today by CapitalCosm. I hope you get something out our
#uranium
discussion. Thanks Danny
@CapitalCosm
for including me.
I know it’s near the end of the session in a rough macro tape but how does news that Russia is looking to buy spot
#uranium
not spark a U-sector rally? We all thought they had an abundance of material.
Askar: “The
#Uranium
market will be tight through the end of the year” (pause) “But then next year, — won’t be any better.” I laughed because I was wondering what was coming after that pause. Great interview by
@capnek123
Since it’s already public knowledge, I’ll share that just moments ago on the Hedgeye Macro Show, Keith reiterated that he bought
#uranium
in their Macro Pro service. ✅
Boom!🎤 Founder/CEO of
@Hedgeye
Risk Management, whose 40+ research analysts provide "Hedge-Fund Quality Research For All Investors" via "actionable, alpha-generating insights for world’s largest asset managers" signals to his 243K followers that he's "bought
#Uranium
"!🛒⚛️⛏️🤠🐂
“In the 1970’s the US Utilities directly invested in 28
#Uranium
-mining ventures (to help ensure their security of supply.) Will they have to do that again? Possibly!”
—Dustin Garrow
#Nuclear
Fuel Consultant
#Uranium
As of the ‘90s most of Africa didn’t have telephone landlines. Africa still doesn’t and NEVER WILL. Why? Technology made it more economical to skip directly to cell service. Similarly, countries that have never had large reactors will skip directly to affordable SMRs.
Stop 🛑 and think about this: People are focused on the inability of Kazatomprom and Cameco to meet their goals to increase
#uranium
production. In the meantime, Orano reports an outright NET PRODUCTION DECREASE of -5% in 23 vs 22. (and it’s not just due to Somair, see thread.)👇
So I finally got to listen to Oranos Conference call, and around 1:16:55 they say they produced 7,146tU of uranium in 2023 compared to 2022 production of 7,524tU. -> A reduction of 5%.
(18.6Mlbs in 2023 vs 19.6Mlbs in 2022).
Have anyone seen what they guided for 2023?
Imho: Cameco is going to get tighter with its
#uranium
order book sooner than most expect. Why? Westinghouse. WEC aims to be a “one stop shop.” CCJ cannot allow themselves to get in the position of being unable to meet demand from WEC’s rapidly growing customer base.
Become a student of the physical
#uranium
market and you’ll know where you are in the cycle. We haven’t even had one year of replacement rate contracting (restocking) yet. We have YEARS to go with no significant supply response anywhere on the horizon.
After a huge rally there was inevitably going to be retracement.
Uranium was $110 lb offered after the KAP production cut on 1st February. It felt like
#uranium
went up every day from $50 lbs last summer and now has plateaued recently at over $100 lb. We suspect a lot of
Experts on
#uranium
such as Art Hyde and Ben Finegold have stated they expect 2H ‘24 contracting to catch up to Full Year’23 which suggests +130m lbs. That may be conservative: Remember that One Utility Alone - Energoatom w just 13 reactors, signed a 67.3m lb contract in ‘23.
“Throw the kitchen sink at it - bring em all on (all brownfields, max current producers, Arrow, etc.) AND YOU STILL HAVE a cumulative deficit of 180m lbs by 2030.”
— Mike Alkin, Sachem Cove
Mike is the world’s foremost expert on
#Uranium
supply/demand.
Higher SWU (Enrichment) and Conversion prices precede every leg up in U3O8 prices. Utilities first contract for Enrichment, then for Conversion, then for the
#Uranium
U3O8 feedstock necessary to complete their Conversion & Enrichment contract commitments.
🐳 Spot
#U3O8
may not have moved higher this past week🎠 but
#Nuclear
fuel brokers
@UraniumMarkets
reported another +$1.50 rise in leading Spot
#Uranium
price indicator Conversion to a new all-time record industry high of $71.50/kgU⬆️🌋 with sellers now asking $75.🧀🐭🤠🐂🌊🏄
"The Russia ban is a big deal," said Jonathan Hinze, president at UxC, a nuclear-fuel market information and analysis firm. "It will shape the nuclear fuel markets for many years to come."
#uranium
.
“…the URNM names will dramatically outperform the metal (as the
#Uranium
bull market develops.)”
—Larry McDonald, Bear Traps Founder and famed strategist.
URANIUM Discussion begins at the 11:45 mark.
Gitzel’s warning to fuel buyers: “If you wait until 2025 to contract you’ll miss the contracting cycle and be exposed to a small discretionary spot market.”
[Starting at 17 minutes into the $CCJ
#uranium
producer’s Q1 earnings conference call.]
The Senate has historically led the charge (to ban Russian
#Uranium
) - the House was the wildcard. Now that the House passed it, I’d expect easy passage in Senate and a swift POTUS signature. ✅✅✅
Last night’s Uranium Insider subscriber video was epic. Justin
@uraniuminsider
& Rick are a rare asset to the
#Uranium
Investor Community. Everyone who wants nuanced fundamental & technical analysis should subscribe.
Don’t miss this epic thread from Professor Quakes. Like a magician sharing his “how to” book, he provides all the links you would ever need to stay on top of relevant
#uranium
news. I’ll be spending hours updating & prioritizing follows based on this. Thank you Sir!
🗣️📢🙉OK.. OK.. I hear U!🦻😆 U don't want me to leave U⛓️ or stop tweeting about
#Uranium
#mining
#stocks
&
#Nuclear
#energy
for U😟... I get it!👍🤠🐂 I'm willing to compromise.🌉 Here's what I'll do to help U...🆘🚑
1⃣ If I happen to be online and I see big news that I think
What attracted me most to
#Uranium
investing is a simple hard truth: While “the cure for high prices - is high prices” in nearly all commodities, Uranium by contrast will require “consistently high prices for a very long time (ie several to many years) to cure its deficit.”
It’s simple:
(A) BASELINE CONSUMPTION👉 ~180m lbs per yr burned by existing reactors.
(B) ADD👉 Life extensions. Restarts. Uprating. New Builds. Overfeeding. & 22 Govts pledging to triple nuclear.
(C) SUPPLY👉
#Uranium
production is ~50 million lbs per yr BELOW BASELINE. Yikes.
Justin
@uraniuminsider
is always educational but when he gets in a discussion with someone who can absorb details and fire back high-level questions… that’s where he really shines. Excellent
#Uranium
and
#Nuclear
podcast ✅
14 New French Reactors making 23 Gigawatts is equivalent to 21 Westinghouse AP 1000 Flagship Units (rated at 1.1 Gigawatts ea.) These EDF Reactors are big-bad-mamma-jammas that will gobble a whole lot of
#Uranium
especially at startup. 🍻
Holy Cow!🐮Yesterday's announcement that
#France
will build 8 giant EPR2
#Nuclear
reactors is in addition to 6 EPR2 builds already approved🎇🎆😲 to bring the total to 14 new reactor builds adding a massive 23 Gigawatts!🇫🇷⚛️🏗️Incroyable!🤠🐂
#Uranium
🌊🏄
Your assignment this weekend or anytime before Feb 1 is to listen to these experts on Kazatomprom $KAP. It’s a long conversation but will illuminate your understanding of the challenges facing the world’s largest
#uranium
producer in a manner that you cannot get any other way.👇
If you are invested in uranium or are considering it, this segment of our last UI Members Webinar with Nick and Ben from
@oceanwall2
is a MUST watch. What was discussed is so fundamentally important that we decided to share it publicly. Please enjoy.
I cannot overstate the importance of this increasing
#Uranium
Replacement Rate Contracting news update. It’s far more of a game-changer than day-to-day spot prices.
@ItsWarrenIrwin
A) The reason SPUT, YCA, and (unquantifiable) Hedge Fund pounds haven’t moved the price even higher is because those accumulations have primarily served to clear up secondary supplies ie above ground mobile inventory that was trading around the market since Fukushima - thereby
⚠️Yesterday the Office of the US Trade Representative (USTR) posted on the Federal Register a Notice outlining changes to US Section 301 tariffs on certain products imported from
#China
, including
#Uranium
.🇨🇳🚢⚛️⛏️➡️💰🇺🇸 The changes stem from a Four-Year Review by USTR and by
Not all news & analysis carries equal weight. This👇is a must read for
#uranium
investors. It reminds me of a recent comment by Ocean Wall’s Nick Lawson. I’ll paraphrase: “~Kazatomprom is like the Saudi Arabia of uranium. Imagine picking up a newspaper and reading that Saudi
⚡️The world's largest
#Uranium
miner $KAP has sent the market a surprise warning ahead of releasing its Q4/2023 Earnings & Guidance.⚠️ Why is this a bigger deal than most realize🫨 that will drive
#U3O8
prices higher no matter how many lbs
#Kazakhstan
produces in 2024/2025?🤔
Dear Warren
@ItsWarrenIrwin
. Let’s reexamine where the supply came from to make up for the
#Uranium
supply deficit prior ‘23. Note that we are now back on pace for at least consumption rate (if not replacement rate) contracting in ‘23.
Previous sources of secondary supply:
#uranium
. Supply response to higher prices starting to add up. Possible new supply from Kazaks, Cameco, NexGen of course, BHP’s Olympic Dam, Orano’s Mongolian deal, Sweden possibly opening up access to world’s two largest uranium deposits. What else have I missed? No better
BREAKING: BLOCKBUSTER MICROSOFT DATACENTER DEAL RESURRECTING THREE MILE ISLAND NUCLEAR PLANT
Microsoft and nuclear plant owner Constellation have agreed to a massive, unprecedented deal to restart the closed Three Mile Island by 2028 to power its datacenters, per the New York
Wow. Just days after the Indian 🇮🇳 government approves NPCIL-NTPC JV 'Ashvini', a Joint Venture to pool
#Nuclear
financing and resources, plans are coming together to build a fleet of 50 small
#nuclear
reactors based on a redesigned version of their 220-megawatt PHWRs.
#uranium
Don’t miss the bolded sentence in the fourth paragraph below.
A fund manager recently pounded the table in a pay-walled interview that “
#Uranium
is a generational wealth opportunity.” And now, after the COP28 announcement, I don’t see how anyone can argue his point.
⚡️ There are currently 436 operable
#Nuclear
reactors generating 392 Gigawatts of
#CarbonFree
#electricity
that consume an estimated 65,651 tonnes of
#Uranium
(170+ Million lbs
#U3O8
) per year.⚛️⛏️🛒
TRIPLING Nuclear capacity & Uranium supply over the next 27 years will require
Global Atomic
#Uranium
. Stephen is fired up! “This thing ($GLO $GLATF) is going gangbusters.” “ECOWAS dropping sanctions - borders reopening, banks re-engaging…Turkey back on track…”
An at a glance comparison of 2024 vs the
#uranium
spot price spike of 2007:
In ‘07, despite there being no serious deficit of supply (but after a few years of rising prices spurred by utility inventory restocking that began in ‘05) the brand new Cigar Lake Mine flooded -
💥Today
@Sprott
Physical
#Uranium
Trust🏦 issued 99,700 shares to raise $2.2 Million🔥🏧💵😃 & stacked 100,000 lbs
#U3O8
🛒🎆 as its NAV rose back up to $5.7B!⬆️💰
#SPUT
still holds $33M cash🪙 closing at a tiny -0.30% Discount to NAV!🐁🤠🐂
#Nuclear
#StackingDay
🛒🌊🏄
What? My mind has short circuited. 🤯 Don’t miss this Bloomberg article. Just Open AI alone envisions needing the equivalent of 25+ large reactors.
#Nuclear
powered by
#Uranium
Its unstoppable! OpenAI is considering 5GW Data Centers in multiple (5-7) locations across the US 🇺🇸 .
It would be an unprecedented buildout using the eq. power of 25 to 35 1-Gigawatt
#nuclear
reactors.
#uranium
(link in reply)
Yes! 143.7m lbs YTD (of goal 180+m lbs.) Means WE ARE STILL ON PACE to achieve THE most important indicator of a robust
#Uranium
Bull Market — Replacement Rate Contracting (for the first time since 2012.) 👏