Leading Nowhere @leading_nowhere Twitter profile

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

All long-form threads compiled here for easy reference 👇

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

9 days

Star Health employee offers direct illegal API access to full customer medical records for $43,000; then stiffs buyer, asking $150k because 'senior management' wants a cut, buyer then promptly blows the whistle in retaliation. How incompetent could you be at white collar crime?

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

What they don't tell you about microcap/smallcap investing. (a thread) 👇

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

PayTM IPO DRHP - Who moved my cheese? 👇 (1/n)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Every annual report tells a story. In small companies, you can read between the lines to get a feel of the management style and business economics. I take Fredun Pharmaceuticals Ltd (FPL) to illustrate how to go about this (it's not pretty). Let's go 👇 (1/n)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

What companies say: bonus and split to improve liquidity for shareholders! What they mean: large investors need liquidity to book profit. What retail sees: oh nice, free shares yay! Check out Q2-Q3 shareholding pattern in IEX and IRCTC to understand the short-term context.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Family-run listed companies with diverse promoter businesses sometimes decide to take minority shareholders for a ride. Here's a live example. A thread 👇 (1/n)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Britannia Industries undertakes an innovative corporate manoeuvre frequently – issuing bonus debentures. It securitizes part of its reserves as bonds, pays interest at 8% or so for a few years and then gives the securitized amount to shareholders as principal. A thread 👇 (1/n)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Generally don't write about IPOs, but reading a new Red Herring Prospectus is habit. India Pesticides is an agro-chemical company with seemingly mouth-watering financial ratios. But corporate governance markers suggest extreme caution. (1/n)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

One of the reasons I've always admired KPR Mills.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Bull runs in small caps are usually fast and furious, and the cycle repeats itself every 3-4 years. Every time, retail is sold stories of business turnaround and stock charts look fantastic for meteoric wealth creation. For the class of 2020-21, here's a couple of past stars.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

1 year

EKI Energy...a story. Auditor of EKI Energy resigned in Nov'22, stating emphatically there was no dispute with management, and audit for H1FY23 was completed by them w/ clean limited review report. But in Q3FY23, new auditor Walker Chandiok trashed the financials. (1/12)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 months

So I have been seeing Osia Hyper Retail Ltd being mentioned and the fact that its raising 2x its market cap in a preferential issue. For some people, this is 'interesting'. Kiya hai toh kuch soch ke hi kiya hoga? Absolutely, let's see kya soch ke kiya hai. (1/n)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

9 days

Adding some screenshots from the video + LinkedIn profile of the alleged perpetrator.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

The 6 buckets of information I look at when analysing a company for the first time. Most of these tend to be small companies with little coverage but with larger competitors. A thread 👇 (1/14)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Always entertaining to see BS being called out publicly.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Noticed Shri Jagdamba Polymer Limited (SJPL) featuring recently, as a long term pick. It's difficult to find a bigger potential conflict of interest from a minority investor's perspective. Let's see👇 (1/11)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Some thoughts on the PNB Housing Finance (PNBHF) drama around raising INR 4000 crore via preferential issue and ceding management control to Carlyle PE.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Windlas Biotech DRHP - Boulevard of broken dreams for US PE fund 👇 (1/n)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 years

While this article in ET today didn't name any companies, one sprung to mind immediately and CTRL+F in the latest annual report confirmed the same to be true.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Here is some perspective on temperament, decision making, risk factoring in individual investing that I have gained over the years. Random assortment, but here goes👇

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

7 years

Mirza International - 30% sales to related party, 29% of costs from related party, massive salary and commission. Why is it even listed?

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

What we're seeing in small caps and mid caps - broad decline and lack of momentum - is natural in the rotation cycle. If your companies continue to grow earnings, they'll be back and beyond in a few quarters. If not, you picked lemons. No amount of narrative can change this.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Brightcom Global: 🚩$1b market capitalization 🚩99% of revenue + profit outside India 🚩None of the cash EVER seen in India 🚩Occasional token dividend from Indian earnings 🚩Latest pref issue lead by retail 🚩Check legal history Please aur mat puchna. Nahin ho payega.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Mitsu Chemplast is another tiny company with honest and h/w promoters. Not savvy in English but growing organically and inorganically over last 5y. Mitsu promoters, w/ Aarti promoters, collectively purchased 11% float from open market in 2021. Low liquidity, not optically cheap.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

9 days

Had one job, (a) don't leave a trail and (b) don't cheat your accomplices. Wasn't that difficult to get away with. Have to be operating with zero fear of consequences to be this careless. Darwin award candidate. Video of interactions with employee here:

553521 : Free Download, Borrow, and Streaming : Internet Archive

video

archive.org

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Garware Hi-Tech Films: Promoter remuneration growing robustly but can't manage to attend AGM. Company on publicity & transparency drive in last 12 months, but leakage to promoter group increasing too. Look at these while business is still performing and build margin of safety.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

A random assortment of thoughts on smallcap/microcap investing, once again 👇

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 years

1/ On the way up, smallcaps have tremendous liquidity. Once dry, just a few people looking to offload a few lakh shares will send prices on downward spiral for months. Closer to cost price, more the desperation. Buyers are smart, they too place orders at lower end of circuits.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Delisting proposal by promoters of Allcargo Logistics vetoed by shareholders u/Reg 11(4) of Delisting Regs. 88% public voted against delisting, incl. 100% institutions and 75% individuals. A rare moment in a listed company's life where public has the upper hand. Read 👇

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 years

Stocks still aren't cheap enough.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

7 years

Shakti Pumps (India) Limited - The miscellaneous expenses written off are more than the PAT of the company in the entire year. And the shareholders have no idea what they are.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Asian Granito (AGL) scrambling to ensure the upcoming Rs 225 Cr rights issue doesn't run into headwinds. Promoters recently sold 12% of AGL to invest into a related party, and promoters will now invest back into AGL via rights issue! What's up 👇 (1/7)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

(Thread) Some thoughts on investing in listed family-owned businesses. Cobbled together from several years of investing in and observing such companies, and also some professional interactions with business owners. 👇

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 years

1/ A good way to contextualize PE ratio, think it as earnings yield: 5x = 20% 10x = 10% 20x = 5% 30x = 3.3% 50x = 2% As you go down this scale, you're paying increasingly more for growth + durability + intangible assumptions. If assumptions uncertain, how much would you pay?

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Bharti Airtel's latest 190 page presentation will give Twitter thread-makers enough material to keep busy for the next 1 year 🤣

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

There are a few things to look at when analyzing a rights issue as a special situations play. Capital allocation skills of the management rank right at the top. Fundamental question - is it growth capital or a cover-up for fiscal misprudence in the past? (1/13)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 years

I've looked at Bajaj Consumer Products off-and-on for the last 8 years, primarily attracted by dividend payout. Every time my thoughts are the same: market for hair oil is *not* increasing despite higher marketing spends. Dividend yield is a trap in a declining business (so far).

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Note 7 is damning. Sequent overstated revenue by 15 Cr and profit by 5 Cr in Q1FY21 - "Certain instances of modifications to certain underlying documents" - tactful language for fraud? Where will Carlyle (acquired SSL in Q1FY21) recognize the missing revenue? SEBI investigating?

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

The anatomy of Private Equity (PE) funding in a public listed company. A thread 👇 (1/n)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 months

My bet, Vedanta group.

Hindenburg Research

@HindenburgRes

2 months

Something big soon India

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Yesterday I shared an observation on Oriental Carbon & Chemicals (OCCL), regarding their investments into VC funds and pre-IPO opportunities. A lot many wrote in with their views, so here are mine, with some international insights. (1/15)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Hope you enjoyed this thread. RT first tweet for greater reach, please. As always, this is not a recommendation to invest or not to invest into FPL. Just an example to illustrate. (25/n)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

1/ It is extremely lonely. For a large part of your investing cycle, you will be holding some tiny companies and you know that even if you talk about it, you will either be wrong 80% of the time, or people will just trash it.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

@AdityaD_Shah This is hyperbole and playing to the gallery as far as social media is concerned. You can do better. It's not a point of pride to say you've never analyzed one of the biggest businesses in the Indian auto sector.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Simple hack to avoid stupid decisions in the stock market - sleep on the decision and review next morning. In almost every instance you won't feel so strongly about it in the morning and decide to think some more. You'll spend many nights sleeping on it but you'll be at peace.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

7 years

I had previously written on accounting practices at Intense Technologies. Today, saw this delightful announcement on restatement of previous financial statements to wipe out last fiscal's profits.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Nobody really knows how much more markets will fall, or till when. Best you can do is stagger your purchases as the companies you like get cheaper. Bottom will be made before anyone tells you it has been made. Focus on valuing the companies you like, with a margin of safety.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

1 year

SEBI finally going after the finfluencer-broker nexus. Right time to point out Zerodha founders have tried all along to whitewash their role by acting holier than thou. One of them was caught cheating in an exhibition charity match with Vishwanathan Anand too. Leopard's spots...

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Noticed companies doing bizarre preferential issues at exorbitant valuations to 50-60 investors. Legally, absolutely fine if shareholder approval is obtained. What should you make of it as a minority shareholder? Let's see Shivalik Rasayan, today announced this pref issue. (1/6)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

7 years

Raymond Ltd - The complete headache. Lots of observations and that too only from Annual Report FY 16-17. Older ARs lots more of the same.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 years

Most alternative 'investment' platforms offloading working capital and asset financing loans from startups and MSMEs to retail are eating risk-free cream (2%) off the top and giving 10-11% yield for absolute junk credit. Wonder when this blows up, misselling is rampant.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

4/ Margin of safety lies in valuation, and nothing else. Always value the business for the worst case - no growth happens, all assumptions go wrong, business earns only enough to survive. Check historical data - past period of outperformance (if any), reasons, etc.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

7 years

Innovative Tech Pack - commendable growth and execution; AR exhibits scanty explanations for major corporate transactions and many errors.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

1 year

HDFC Sec launched a discount brokerage called Sky, setup everything and hard-coded the PAN of all existing HDFC Sec customers and banned them at the sign-up stage. True, I was just going to transfer all my holdings via e-DIS. But still, it feels like a low blow.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

2/ You're wrong more often than you're right. People who seem to be picking amazing smallcaps/microcaps all the time aren't telling you about their failures. Or they haven't even invested and just trying to give you FOMO for personal gain (attention, followers, services).

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

The bogey of maintenance capex – how the term ‘cash profit’ can be misleading for some types of companies but insightful at the same time. Read below⬇️

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

7 years

Intense Technologies - observations and questions arising from accounting practices.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Impressions of a newbie on seeing Twitter gyaanis these days: 1. Everyone started investing 10-30 years ago. 2. Everyone is 100% stocks all their life since birth. 3. Everyone has 300x multibaggers. 4. Everyone is now cautious and preserving wealth. 5. You're stupid.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

6/ If they're discussing on social media, the margin of safety is likely gone Self explanatory - either you were holding before everyone got excited, or you should be wait for the inevitable reversion to mean when expectations are missed.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

This is nice. Paid COVID-related expenses for every single employee. Galaxy Surfactants Limited.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Insider buying: perhaps relevant when no one is looking, not so relevant when everyone is already looking. Source: experience

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

You give up pension, I'll give up exemptions!

CNBC-TV18

@CNBCTV18Live

3 years

On the taxation front, we are moving away from exemptions. New tax regime without exemptions won’t take off if we keep giving exemptions. says #Revenue Secretary, Tarun Bajaj

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

8 months

At some point you have to come to the conclusion these people hold posts purely to defend the establishment than any sense of duty to their job. Give speeches, express condolences, pontificate and protect the establishment. Accountability, what are you even talking about?

Rekha Sharma

@sharmarekha

8 months

Did you ever report the incident to Police? If not than you are totally an irresponsible person. Writing only on social media and defaming whole country is not good choice.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

8/ Low PE is not a bargain- it is a default Smallcaps and microcaps deserve to trade at low PEs. Don't compare these companies with the index and fancied stocks of the day.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

1 year

I'ma back with some squiggly lines and red text on blurry financial statements! RMC Switchgears converted -5.6 cr OCF into +4.78 cr OCF by randomly adding income tax, though it was never part of OCF calculation. Didn't pay tax and then got creative with it!

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 months

Ola Electric employee sharing detailed thesis crying undervaluation. Says former employee, but still not updated this detail on LinkedIn. Deck attached can be aptly described as "just trust me bro". Can listed companies sanction this through insiders via social media? (1/7)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 years

Just the answer to this one question says enough about the business model.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

7 years

Nandan Denim - Observations and a primer on necessity to scrutinize related party transactions. "Famous" investors will not protect you.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 years

NDTV promoters must be having a good laugh over their magnificently well-timed Adani-funded exit.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Companies that don't do concalls or regular presentations are rarely darlings of social media. Difficult to make a thread or video on these. I like such companies. The first time they do a concall or presentation, content creators arrive and you get 3 years of earnings in 1 year.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

HDFC Bank has the twin levers of (a) low cost of funds; and (b) pick of the best lending opportunities. Betting on other players to do *as well* as HDFC Bank, but not betting on HDFC Bank to *keep doing* what it has always done?

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 years

Many managements with experience in commodity products miscalculate gestation period for specialty products. Ester Industries took 6 years to gain traction in specialty polymer division. Management was bullish in 2016, 2018 and 2020, but performance came only from FY21-22.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 years

Seems like Credit Suisse is about to go belly up from what I'm reading on non-India fintwit.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Interesting experience to hold BSE when it reverse split to halve shares and double price in 2016, and hold now with 2:1 bonus in 2022, reversing and adding 50% quantity on top. Based on a lot of manual but intermittent observation over the years, here are my thoughts. (1/6)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

A great joy of investing is finding honest, hardworking promoters with steady boring businesses. Commercial Syn Bags is such a company, following since 2016. Honest people growing incrementally every year. Nothing special about it, just people at work. For you.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

FY20-21 annual report of Sukhjit Starch and Chemicals Limited will blow you away with totally random sentences, graphics and quotations. Still reeling, it was like trying to understand Tenet.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

7 years

Omkar Specialty Chemicals - timely financial disclosures to shareholders is optional for this company. No need to deal with the adverse stock reaction that accompanies terrible financial performance of the company. Interests of shareholders and financial institutions immaterial.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

The company focused on pressurising parents and children to start preparing for competitive exams and jobs from an early age....is announcing 'rewards' for our successful sportsmen. Some sense of knowing when to shut up required, please!

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

2 years

TGV SRAAC approved payment of 1% turnover to non-director non-KMP promoter for 'advisory services'. INR ~20 crore p.a. on current turnover, while average PAT of last 10 years is INR ~30-40 crore. If cycle takes dive, payouts will continue while drawing down accumulated reserves.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

This isn't required to be disclosed under Regulation 30 of LODR. No other comment.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

9 days

I thought this was worth posting about becuase not only personal identifying data (allegedly) leaked, but also *claims* documentation. Particularly egregious, we all know our PAN/Aadhar/DoB is already floating out there, but medical claims data is really... (1/4)

Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

9 days

Star Health employee offers direct illegal API access to full customer medical records for $43,000; then stiffs buyer, asking $150k because 'senior management' wants a cut, buyer then promptly blows the whistle in retaliation. How incompetent could you be at white collar crime?

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Lot of content around on stocks down X% - will you buy?! These are termed as trading at a 'discount'. This logic works during linear phase of bull market. As investor and not a speculator, your job is to focus on discount from 'estimated fair value' and not 'all time high'.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

The first lesson I learnt some years ago was the effect of raw material (RM) volatility in manufacturing businesses. In last 10-15 years, volatility has been mainly on crude price, ADD and foreign exchange fluctuations. Lesson remains the same though, regardless of nature of RM.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Still waiting for the day to see content on Twitter for companies that are NOT having a bumper time currently. That's pretty much where money has always been made.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

1 year

4 things: (1) Smallcaps can fall 25-40%, still may not be cheap. (2) Some cos, regardless of market cap, have stronger correlation to biz trajectory than markets. (3) Broad market segments will correct after a good period (i.e. not rocket science). (4) All this repeats.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

7 years

A guide on interpreting an announcement.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Decoding the SEBI order against Franklin Templeton (FT). Quoted verbatim, "a fall out of the obsession to run high yield strategies without due regard from concomitant risk". A thread 👇

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

There's a lot of interest in companies having blowout earnings during strong demand periods. Operating leverage is both a boon and a trap for investors if you're relying only on temporary demand to operate at 95%+ utilisation. (1/5)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

I've been interested in power transmission INVITs since the first came out with an IPO in 2017, India Grid Trust. Powergrid INVIT is another that debuted recently. A thread on how to compare the two 👇 (1/18)

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Now the season of "I told you so" content that appears during corrections. Tons of cherry-picked examples going around (new age stocks are easiest), and more will come gradually. Key point for DIY investors: Temperament matters more than stock picking or timing the market.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

3/ Accept uncertainty and build a process around it In smallcaps/microcaps, certainty is an illusion. Anyone claiming otherwise is fooling you or themselves or both. No matter how certain a bet seems, listen to that voice over your shoulder.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

5/ Learn the basics of supply and demand in illiquid companies In this space, a hundred buyers and an influencer can put a stock on upper or lower circuits for days. People constantly judge small companies based on how many circuits they've had. It means nothing.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Some companies spend effort to communicate with shareholders clearly in annual reports. Ester Industries used paid industry reports and internal estimates to provide industry structure, capacity additions and demand-supply in BOPET films. Good read, makes flipping ARs worthwhile.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Indian FinTwit is a rather empty place after muting all the generic Tweeters. And rather peaceful too. I've always used Twitter to educate myself on other topics. There is nothing else quite like this platform, don't waste it reading generic investing crap.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

Postscript-4 Don't be afraid to email or call companies. For most promoters, company is like their child. They may not be very good at what they do, but they still like to talk about themselves, as all humans do. Success rate will be low but you might just get information.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

3 years

9/ Bet on honest, experienced management and favourable macro conditions for the industry You are not looking for visionary management, you're just looking for people and companies well placed grab an opportunity and come out stronger once it plays out.

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Leading Nowhere

@leading_nowhere

9 days

Star Health has you covered though, just uploaded a new 'mind health program' on the stock exchange: