Kyle Harrison @kwharrison13 Twitter profile

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

11 months

"I write because I don't know what I think until I read what I say." (Flannery O'Connor)

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

18 days

Breaking news: The scooter company, Bird, is up for sale for less than a pre-seed round.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

In 2018 Figma did $4M of ARR. Soon after I had a VC job interview where I did a Figma case study. I built a model with Figma becoming a $19B company in 2025 I didn't get the job. They said my analysis was "unrealistic" A thread on how the best companies compound unexpectedly...

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

Marc Andreessen has grown a16z from their first fund of $300M in 2009 to over $25B+ in AUM as of 2022. His framework for understanding any business is simple. It comes down to unpacking what he calls "the onion theory of risk." Here's what he means...

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

Opendoor has $8B in revenue. Their market cap has dropped from $19B at their peak to $1B today Bird dropped from $2.4B to $115M Twilio has ~$3.6B in revenue; they dropped from $70B to ~$8B Here's why gross margins can kill a business...

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

19 days

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

The biggest difference between a $50B company and a $1B company is the ability to own more of your addressable universe. You either die a point solution, or you live long enough to become a platform. Snowflake, Datadog, Crowdstrike Here’s how some of the best platforms do it…

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

I. Am. Going. To. Watch. The. Sh*t. Out. Of. This.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

3 years

This....did not happen...

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

11 months

Every VC during a call with a founder.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

11 months

As Blackstone becomes the first PE fund to hit $1 trillion of AUM, I'm reminded of a quote from Stephen Schwarzman that explains how they did it. It also is a fascinating case study on the capital agglomeration game that a lot of VC funds are now playing. Here's the quote:

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

Over the last 4 months I've written 32,000 words and talked to over 90 VCs across 70 different firms (seed, venture, growth, and crossover) about the future of venture capital. Here are the 5 things that came up again and again...

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

Here's your frequent reminder that WeWork raised $20B in funding, hit an all-time-high valuation of $47B and has a market cap of *checks notes* $368M...

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

4 years

Anything that can be copied will be copied in consumer tech.

Jeff Morris Jr.

@jmj

4 years

Anything that can be copied will be copied in consumer tech.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 month

Recently, I got to attend Capital Camp (it's like summer camp for investors) Among this voraciously curious group, representing billions of AUM, I noticed that book recommendations are like a currency Here are the 20 books recommendations (+2 bonus things) from camp...

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

Don’t sleep on cloud security. Wiz reaches $100M ARR in just 18 months. And things are just getting started.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

3 years

If I had a dollar for every time a friend in investment banking tells me they wish they hadn’t done investment banking I would have an investment banking VP’s bonus check.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

You either die a VC-subsidized commodity, or you live long enough to become an advertising business

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

I am not being dramatic when I say the 250 open tabs I just lost is akin to the burning of the library of Alexandria. We'll never know what we lost.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

For any founders struggling to understand the math VCs are doing, making them panic about huge valuations of the last few years: Coupa is doing $700M+ in revenue and got bought for ~$6B. If you're a company with a <$3B valuation and less than $100M in revenue, the math gets hard

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

The face of VC is changing It was a culture of "the firm" like law firms/consulting More dynamic startup scene led to fiefdoms. Sequoia China. a16z Crypto Now we're seeing the unbundling of VC. The renegades of venture are leaning into their own brands

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

4 years

I've had over 25 Roam Tour's in the last 3 months. Not because I'm good at using Roam, but because I'm bad at it. I'm here to show you what a 2 / 10 can do with something as powerful as Roam. #RoamTour

Roam Tour

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www.loom.com

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

I've seen PE investors do an ungodly amount of diligence that in no way helps them make better decisions. I've seen VCs do an ungodly small amount of work that indicates they have no idea what they're talking about. There is a healthy middle we all can find.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

It's also important to put this particular case into perspective. My favorite framing comes from @hunterwalk How did Adobe decide to pay $20B? It was less about an excel model. "What percent of our market cap do we need to spend to protect the rest of it?"

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

I know that everybody is groaning about the hype in AI right now. But OMG I would SO much rather be hyping generative AI and companies like OpenAI than I want to be selling shitcoins and monkey JPEGs. So much more substance here. But maybe that's just me.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

3 years

Has anyone ever heard of this firm “Tier-1 VC?” I don’t know who they are but whoever they are they’re giving out a lot of “verbal offers.”

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

I've never been more excited to be a VC than I am today. After months thinking about the big changes happening in VC I've found a renegade of my own. Excited to announce I'm joining @contrarycapital as a partner to build out a later stage practice 👇

Contrary: My Renegade of Choice

I'm excited to announce that I’m joining Contrary as a General Partner to build out a later stage investing practice. The world of venture is changing and I’m excited to work with the team at...

investing1012dot0.substack.com

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

In the last few months at Contrary Research, we've written over 100K words covering companies across software, gaming, crypto, climate, and more Our mission is to break down the silos in private company research Here are the 10 best research resources we rely on for our work...

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

Pretty shocking that people on Twitter are silent about SVB. Like... does no one want to opine on what's going on? Is anyone going to explain the situation for the rest of us?

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

4 months

Alright you dweebs, listen up. Klarna’s going public, Stripe had an up round, and B*tcoin is back up. Free money comes next, so let’s not screw it up this time. Flying cars, cancer cures, and brain computers. No sh*tcoins, no pump and dumps.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

4 years

I'm quickly approaching the point where I search @RoamResearch before I google something because I'd rather start with seeing what I think about something before I see what everyone else thinks about something.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

The rule of thumb for revenue growth is for a good company to triple-triple-double-double-double in revenue over the course of ~5 years. Based on Figma's trajectory, that would get them to ~$135M ARR by 2022. My estimate? $200M ARR. I felt pretty dumb when they pointed that out.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

4 years

Couldn’t be more excited to be joining the @IndexVentures team. Looking forward to continuing to look for and work with the best companies in the world.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

So how did Figma actually do? They smashed that forecast. Based on what I've read they're currently at ~$400M ARR and doubling.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

Some professional news! I recently had my last day @IndexVentures . Huge thanks to the team there! As for what’s next I’ll be taking some time off to welcome a new baby And then I’ll be working on something new in venture as the world continues to change

The great venture-capital resignation is underway

For venture capitalists, the Great Resignation presents an opportunity to flee jobs and raise new funds.

www.businessinsider.com

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

In the end my interviewer was right. My analysis was unrealistic. Unrealistically conservative. Instead of $200M ARR in 2022? Figma would do $400M (and the year isn't over yet). Instead of $19.5B in 2025? They'd be acquired for $20B in 2022.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

Be very careful about taking advice from VCs about managing people. They’re generally some of the worst people managers around.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

@KennethDredd

Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

7 months

Outreach, after raising at a $4.4B valuation in 2021, has an implied valuation of <$1B in secondary markets. The de-horning of ZIRP unicorns continues.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

But it's important to recognize when a company has something special that allows them to defy gravity. Like AWS, just continuing to experience monster growth to $62B+ of revenue in 2021.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

In Feb 2019 Figma raised at a $440M post from Sequoia. I remember even folks at SoftBank thought that was crazy (and this was the Vision Fund at its most aggressive) "Over 100x ARR? Insanity." This was before the world got crazy in 2020 😉

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

11 months

What I think of every time someone announces a "dedicated AI fund."

Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

11 months

VCs announcing dedicated “AI funds” will be justifying what’s an AI company just as hard as mutual funds justified Exxon into their ESG portfolios. Marketing is as marketing does.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

3 years

I’ve been investing personally in the stock market for a full month now and here are the lessons I’ve learned 👇👇👇 Not a damn thing. These ain’t normal times my friends.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

8 months

@danprimack Cause it’s all Azure credits

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

I love unpacking investor thought processes like this, so if you enjoyed this thread follow me @kwharrison13 Or subscribe to my writing:

Investing 101 | Kyle Harrison | Substack

Learning in Public: Investing. Click to read Investing 101, by Kyle Harrison, a Substack publication with tens of thousands of subscribers.

investing1012dot0.substack.com

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

I’m excited to announce that I’m officially going all in on kids 3.0 We may not get much sleep but wagmi

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

4 years

If you’re an investor (particularly public markets, tracking public equities, etc.) and you’re using @RoamResearch we need to talk. I’m gonna change your life. ( @Conaw spread the word.) Lookin’ at you @LennyIce @borrowed_ideas @MazwoodCap - DMs are open.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

3 years

Hot take: @RoamResearch is uniquely perfect for investors. I'm working on a massive essay around my thoughts for all things Roam + Investing, but here's a sneak peek: Checklists. Roam was made for investment frameworks.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

4 months

In my writing, I've frequently reflected on the excess and irresponsibility of venture capital. But few case studies better sum up my grievances with various aspect of the venture capital industrial complex than does the story of Hopin. The first thing I came back to is how

Amy Lewin

@amyrlewin

4 months

Hopin, once Europe’s fastest-growing startup, enters liquidation 👀

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

This puts so well into words the conversation I’ve had dozens of times in the last year. (1) Incumbents are positioned to succeed in AI broadly much more than startups because brand, data, distribution offer advantage (2) The SaaS 1.0 playbook is uniquely bad for AI because

shogan

@0xSamHogan

1 year

6 months ago it looked like AI / LLMs were going to bring a much needed revival to the venture startup ecosystem after a few tough years. With companies like Jasper starting to slow down, it’s looking like this may not be the case. Right now there are 2 clear winners, a

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

Had 2 great founder calls today - Founder was simultaneously crushing their company story while rocking their newborn baby - My 6-year old broke in and refused to leave until he'd told the founder a knock-knock joke Good reminder that everyone is human and kids are great

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

So what's the takeaway? "Every company will crush it and deserves a 'crazy' multiple along the way?" No. There is a concept of financial gravity. It is REALLY difficult for companies to continue to grow at exponential rates. Eventually, financial gravity slows them down.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

11 months

One of the most un-dealt with ramifications of a 13-year bull market is the institutionalized belief in "the greater fool." People make money, not because a business is good, but because there is always someone else down the line who will buy later. But venture capital, as a

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

You see this underestimation with public companies too. When Crowdstrike ($CRWD) went public in 2019 they had ~$250M of revenue The consensus then was that their 2022 revenue would be under $1B. Today? On track to surpass $2B.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

The internet has helped me get multiple jobs, sign up 6-figure customers, bring on $1M+ LPs, and hire great people All from being willing to send a cold outreach If you do it wrong? Weirdo. Do it right? World-changing These are the best resources I've seen on reaching out...

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

4 years

This market though.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

I know lots of VCs who had nearly written off Figma because they spent 4 yrs building product I know lots of VCs who don’t care about Linear cause they haven’t raised a round in 2+ yrs VCs can have good perspective but just remember they’re attracted to noise, not always signal

Karri Saarinen

@karrisaarinen

1 year

Update: @linear is 4 years this week. Entering 2023 with: - Team: 30 people - Linear runs product for several thousands of startups & enterprises - Profitable since 2021 - Negative lifetime burn (cash in bank is now higher than total raised over Seed+Series A)

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

3 years

If I helped work with some people to make a @RoamResearch course specifically for investors, who would be interested in that? Ask your friends.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

Founders usually build startups for themselves, so they build tech for tech people. But non-tech industries account for 90% of US GDP and at least 80% of jobs. Super excited to launch this new essay series: "How We Work" where we'll unpack the way the rest of the world works.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

15 days

Whole generations of startups would fail if it wasn't for the unsung heroes of spouses with full-time jobs.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 months

the most badass people have a uniform they make their own on the other hand, people who try and copy those uniforms are usually psychos and/or frauds

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

The feedback from my job interview? (1) I believed Figma would grow faster than they realistically could (2) My revenue multiple on exit was unrealistic. Let's start with revenue.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

If you don't believe in persistence when it comes to writing, take a look at @packyM In his first year he wrote 56 editions of his newsletter (100K+ words) and grew to ~1K subscribers By his 2nd anniversary? He'd grown to 48K+ subscribers. Today? 114K+ Just. Keep. Writing.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

5 months

"I grew up implicitly thinking that intelligence was this, like really special human thing and kind of somewhat magical. And I now think that it's sort of a fundamental property of matter..." @sama

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

Every company has a story. But a lot of those stories are hard to find, and even harder to understand. Today we're excited to launch Contrary Research ( @Contrary_Res ) to better help tell those stories 👇

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

7 months

It’s a sad day, hearing that Charlie Munger had passed away. Huge appreciation to the Stripe Press team for recreating Poor Charlie’s Almanack and capturing so much of his wisdom so near the end of his life.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

"If you’re an investor, you look at the risk around an investment as if it’s an onion. Just like you peel an onion and remove each layer in turn, risk in a startup investment comes in layers that get peeled away — reduced — one by one." @pmarca So what are the risks?

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

My second mistake in the interview? My revenue multiple. In early 2019 the average SaaS company was trading at ~10-11x revenue. I was forecasting for a 2025 IPO. I thought, "I think Figma could be $700M ARR, growing 60%+... this deserves a premium." So I had it trading at 20x

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

5 months

Contrary Research is increasingly becoming THE best starting place to understand any private tech company. When you look at companies like Anthropic, Databricks, Stripe, and SpaceX, our work is right up there with each company's own research pages.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

Layoffs suck. Companies who have ramped up burn are panicking, cutting headcount, and freezing hiring. Makes it feel like tech jobs are shutting down But I'm on calls every day with founders desperate to hire great people. My DMs are open with eager founders looking to hire. HMU

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

8 months

“Ilya, and Adam, and Emmett are talented technologists. They just have a different moral perspective than Sam and Greg. This wasn’t a financial, or technical, or strategic difference. This is a moral disagreement.” @balajis

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

Again, this was before the market went crazy and we saw 50x ARR multiples become normal. Instead, I was told "Sequoia will probably expect a 3-5x return on their investment." 3-5x on $440M? $1.3B - $2.2B "That should be the expected exit value. Make the math work." 🥸

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

There's a VC fund chasing a 10x larger opportunity than Sequoia. It's led by one of the best VCs ever And some people are calling it a niche fund? 🤷‍♂️ Nothing could be further from the truth. Here's the real opportunity @lowercarbon is tackling 👇 1/14

Renegade Spotlight: Lowercarbon

Renegade Spotlights The world of venture capital is changing dramatically. Over the last few months I've spent a lot of time thinking and writing about the forces driving that change. The two most...

investing1012dot0.substack.com

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

. @wolfejosh has some of the best takes on this "I used to read non-fiction – biographies and business histories exclusively. I saw them as case studies, full of lessons. Though these books have value, I’ve come to appreciate that fiction reveals more powerful truths."

Michael J. Miraflor

@michaelmiraflor

1 year

Saw this posted on LinkedIn as a leader’s recommended reading list (or something along those lines). Once again I am begging of you, please read more fiction. I promise that it will do more for you vs another productivity optimization book.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

(1) Founder Risk: Does the startup have the right founding team? A great technologist, plus someone who can run the company? Is the technologist really all that? Is the business person capable of running the company?

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

4 months

Being married is the single greatest thing in my life. It’s positively impacted my self-esteem, ability to communicate, willingness to change my mind, empathy, productivity, commitment, health, focus, self-control, financial discipline, long-term mindset, and sense of humor.

Codie Sanchez

@Codie_Sanchez

4 months

Being married needs a new PR agent. It's actually awesome, but you wouldn't know that if you looked at the internet.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

19 days

The greatest sin of venture capital is trying to convince everyone that every business should be a venture scale business. Countless good businesses have been murdered at the altars of scale.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

Fintech has gotten smashed. Impressive how well Airbnb has held up. Stripe getting cut by 50% isn’t a painful exception, it’s the rule. Every highly valued tech company will have to make a reckoning with this new norm for valuation expectations.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

Not every company will have the same market, or competitors, or combo of PLG / top-down sales. But the very best companies will have something special that allows them to defy financial gravity. So look for that.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

3 months

The best businesses are never born at the height of their own hype cycles: • Stripe (2009): Everyone was focused on social media • Coinbase (2012) Everyone was focused on VR • OpenAI (2015) Everyone was focused on IoT • Anduril (2017): Everyone was focused on crypto

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

4 years

One-on-one @RoamResearch tours have become one of my new favorite activities. Caught up with @seanlinehan and not only did we get to bond over #RoamCult nerdiness, but I also found out @RoamResearch is effectively the original World Wide Web reincarnate A THREAD 1/9

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

4 years

Hot tip. Interested in a company? Google "company name" + "Substack" for a pretty solid smattering. Better than the @SubstackInc find a writer search cause they seem to prioritize description word mention rather than content (+ page rank)

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

Now I had what my interviewer called "a compounding error." I had dramatically overestimated their revenue growth, showing them get to almost $1B ARR in 2025. And then I had them trade at an "insane" 20x multiple. The result? A $19.5B IPO in 2025.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

His advice for founders? "Take a hard-headed look at each of these risks — and any others that are specific to your startup and its category — and put yourself in the VC’s shoes: what could [we] do to minimize / eliminate enough of these risks? Then do those things."

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

In just the last 2 months Contrary Research has published 20K+ words in deep dives - Data infra & $SNOW vs DB - Evolution of DevOps - Cybersecurity primer Check out our reports below 👇 We’ve got a lot of exciting topics planned. What other deep dives should we do?

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

In the last 3 years, we saw the Unicorn Club pass 1K+ "members." Many of them have: ✅ $1B+ valuations ✅ Years of runway (maybe) ✅ <$100M revenue But a lot of VCs are predicting that 50%+ of those companies could fail. Here are the most likely reasons why…

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

4 years

You people (idiots): “Wow. How ‘bout that @RoamResearch at $200M, huh?” Me (a genius): “When is @Conaw launching his shampoo brand?”

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

3 years

Before universities were defined by their physical amenities they were more focused on the group of people. Communities like @ycombinator and @beondeck being remote and people-centric is a return to originality vs a move away from it.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

As fascinating as the news of Figma + Adobe is? Also fascinating to see @penpotapp (open source Figma) top Hacker News. Platform risk is a real thing.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

3 years

In celebration of both my 1-year @RoamResearch anniversary and my 100th #RoamTour I've put together some thoughts on my two favorite topics: Investing + Roam. I wanted to reflect on the things I've learned and appreciated: 1/8

Networked Conviction: Roam + Investing

Learning in Public: Investing

investing1012dot0.substack.com

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

13 days

When Contrary Research launched in 2022, even we didn’t appreciate how much demand there was for private markets research. Since then we've grown to 50K+ subs covering companies like Anduril, Ramp, Figma, and more. Today, we're unveiling the new look for Contrary Research:

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

7 days

Crazy how often when founders ask about certain VCs, I can articulate their "value prop" as them being "a nice, normal human being," and founders get it immediately.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

3 years

You have 💎🙌 because stocks only go up and you never back down. I have 💎🙌 cause I lost my brokerage password. We are not the same.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

Venture capital is one of the most under-innovated models that exists. But things are changing. The renegades of venture capital are changing the rules. There is no one way to do it. But anyone who isn't paying attention is going to get left behind.

The Renegades of Venture Capital

Defining The Renegades I've been working in venture for just over seven years. I've loved it. I love working with founders and thinking about how companies get built. I've never considered myself the...

investing1012dot0.substack.com

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

The way VCs build their own teams is outdated and kills innovation What @paradigm is building will force every VC fund (in and out of crypto) to change their own org charts This is what a product-led VC who understands their real customer looks like 👇

Renegade Spotlight: Paradigm

Renegade Spotlights The world of venture capital is changing dramatically. And it continues to change more and more quickly. We're on internet time now. Venture capital is an industry that has been...

investing1012dot0.substack.com

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

2 years

There are over 1,000 companies valued at $1B+. While some will thrive, as the market corrects some will shut down, and others will look for a home In 2023, we'll see a wave of M&A as companies consolidate to chase market share Here are some of the combinations we might see...

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

I think @patrick_oshag may very well go down in history as one of the greatest aggregators and curators of knowledge in the internet age Especially as the internet expands supernova-exponentially in the face of AI creation. Tastemakers like him will become more important

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

20 days

The Contrary Research team has been working on a massive project for the last 6 months Hundreds of hours of research, 350K+ words of notes I just got done reading the first draft. 57K words across 153 pages Couldn't be more excited to share this with the world! Stay tuned.

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Kyle Harrison

@kwharrison13

1 year

I’ve gotten four web3 pitches this week, Carvana is ripping, and Kylie Jenner is launching a creator economy startup. Goddammit you people have learned nothing.

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