Dr. Gary N. Ross @kingofcrude Twitter profile

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Oil stks are low; backwardation is everywhere. WTI structure looks explosive; Brent structure will eventually have to follow. OPEC over tightening in face of lows stocks & cont’d stock draws. This is happening despite China fighting it. Have to continue to be bullish!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Oil can’t go up every wk but I am still bull. Cushing is empty sweet crude & North Sea is next. Ref marg are good and AB crude stks will resume draws in Nov. Covid can incr but deaths will not, limiting impact. Only shale/Opec+ can add oil and neither is inclined to add enough

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Time to pound table to buy oil.China will 1st buy more crude to run be4 any huge incr in prod exp. Rus will have big problem find home for 1.5 MMB/D of "EU crude"in Dec with limits both on India and China to take more. Saudi support front at 90+/Biden back at 80 so down limited.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

OPEC needed to cut to reduce 1Q oversupply and now oil prices are being devastated by contango which reduces financial investment and destroys sentiment. Only OPEC can fix this by cutting output and reinstating the OPEC put. Given this risk it is dangerous being short here!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Consumers around the works should come together to temporarily reduce oil use by 5-10% in support of the Ukrainian people and punish the criminal regime in Moscow. Yes prices would dramatically decline but it would be temporary and send a powerful message.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

We built OECD overall oil stocks around 150 mmb in 2020 and so far this year through sept we have drawn 243 mmb. Add a big 4Q draw and we r empty everything just about everywhere which is what the mkt is saying. Structure is exploding higher!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Oil has had a great run but not over. Dem incr while supply does not. Look for output freeze offs this wk while dem soars bc weather. Dem also lifts as lockdowns decr w worst of pandemic over. Macro is mega bull w $ going to commod. Oil stocks continue to draw. All very bull!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Diesel remains a big problem. Stocks are very low and demand is soaring in part because end user stocks are extraordinarily low. There is no resupply for NYH and while it is early in the month and the roll is coming, watch for fire works later when the rubber meets the road!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

Should be a good wk for oil prices: EIA crude draw, products look very supportive esp gasoil but also gasoline, present economy ok, geopolitical risks to supply abound, US $ should decline and fin length very low. Will still have S&P/banking crisis vulnerability but chance to rip

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Very low inventories and heightened risks to supply are driving up the dem for inventory and in turn prices. $100 oil is justified based on inv and spare capacity vs 2010/14. Now possible reduction in Russian oil/gas exports sets up a stacked deck for higher prices!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Saudi put at work! Though minor cut, psychological impact is imp and ABS, who watches mkt very closely, is keenly aware of this. It is clear OPEC+ do not want prices below $90 Brent; closer to $100 is more like it. OPEC's price aspirations always moves higher when the mkt allows!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Oil looks set for a leg up with stocks drawing and good ref margins. With add’l stk draws and higher runs, DSFC will be declining, increasing fair value to over $75 for dec Brent. On top of this there should be an ongoing premium to fair value w risks to supply so $80 is possible

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

Global oil demand does not typically go down in a recession esp if US centric and esp with China reopening and strong econ growth in India and Middle East as well. Why are the macro guys net short Brent/gasoil. They know nothing about the oil mkt and esp OPEC! Insane

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Oil price higher with reduced COVID cases, stk draws, good ref margins and macro holding up. Expect higher prices esp with added winter dem from gas to oil substitution, ongoing geopolitical risks to supply and still hurricane risk. Stk draws on water to show up later onshore.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Think about what has happened in last 4 wks : a total loss of 55 mil Bbl of US prod (250 MBD in 4Q) bc IDA,very strong LNG = +200-400 MBD to global oil dem in 4Q, US to ease air travel in Nov=100+ MBD and the GS Lockdown index has gone from 4 to 3% =another 1.5 MMBD. Very bull!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

OPEC+ did what it had to do to protect the global S&D and price esp with US not holding up its end to support prices by replenishing SPR oil. As ABS promised OPEC+ was preemptive and proactive to promote stability in the oil mkt and wrest oil prices from the grip of risk off.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

Market bound to wake up oil is cheap! Econ data surprisingly strong which has to support oil dem esp with service sector leading. Supply declining with OPEC + cuts, maintenance and losses in Iraq, Nig ,Col and potentially elsewhere. Big summer inv draws. All point to higher oil!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

I remain bullish oil; runs going up, crude stocks going down is recipe for higher prices. Oil still in tank will be needed to meet dem so inevitably backwardation will come back strongly. Look for big crude stock draw in EIAs this week!!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Loss of US production looks substantial, perhaps 10 mmb of light sweet crude. Add to that extra refiner/other oil dem to replace natural gas and you have a market impacting event. All this is before extra heating fuel demand in Northeast.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Oil sell off was obviously macro driven as market prices in increasing probability of recession which seems inevitable with an aggressive fed and high oil/energy prices along with relatively strong $!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Crude is not the issue as we head into refinery maintenance. The problem is diesel. Stocks are way too low esp in light of seasonal dem increases and extra dem from gas to oil substitution. The only solver is price which will have to go painfully higher!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Oil mkt looks supportive. Economy strong, Omicron dem hit still less than fcst, SPR swap a dud, big US crude stk decline this wk, big boys think US$ toppy, and financial length is real low. Add ever-present geopolitical risks to supply.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Oil prices continue to consolidate next wk waiting on big US crude stock draws later in March and a strong May Brent expire. Strong products will support much higher ref runs, esp in US. Chop before next leg higher. Forward balances remain very very tight!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Keep it simple: IMF says 2022 GDP 7%>2019 so 2022 oil dem =\>2019 implies 2022 dem +4-4.5 MMBD vs 21. Flow deficit 2021= 2 MMBD so need 6-6.5 MMBD to Bal. Non-OPEC +3, OPEC ave sustainable spare 2021=3.5 so no spare esp 2H 22 + product short & price agnostic ref= MAJOR BULL MKT

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Macro $ came into oil space this wk enticed by geopolitical & infl risks in an environ of low spare cap & tight physical sweet crude and gasoil mkts. It is a bull mkt though risk Iran back has incrd bc of innovative proposals and US admin freaking out about high oil prices.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Oil inventory decline is continuing at rapid pace vs history, though some of it has been in China which dulls benchmark impact. Flat price is driven by combo of S&D and macro/geo politics. Price now is well below fair value and OPEC obj. It’s a buy if u can take volatility.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Oil is in great shape. Declin COVID cases= incrd mobility/oil dem, ongoing gulf Mx output loss, gas/oil substitution, low prob of Iran nuke deal and Israeli war threats. China likely to sell more limit amts of SPR and OPEC to add 400 MBD or +but unlikely to derail further upside

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Oil stocks are very very low. We began yr esp low & thru the 1st 3 1/2 mo comm stks in 3 maj OECD mkts have decr ~30mmb vs norm incr 30mmb + we have decr 38mmb of US SPR + other OECD SPR. Sum:a flow deficit of at least 98mmb(930 MBD). & this before real impact of Rus exp loss!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

7 months

Looking for tactical move up in oil here. Dec seasonality bullish and fin net length ultra low. US/China buying SPR and there is a war in ME with all the associated risks. Stock draws coming later in Dec and OPEC+ extra cut gettin added push by Putin visit to ME.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Iran oil will cause shale producers to be cautious and will result in a 8 handle for Brent which will be good for demand and set the stage for the next bull market.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

OPEC put is back in play which is bullish! Guess volatility to upside is not harmful, just to the downside. Market has been pricing in crude stock builds in sep/oct and higher probability of Iran deal. Mkt works and there isn't anything more efficient than price.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

We are drawing crude stocks at over 1 MMBD in April/May. OPEC+ is adding 2 .1 MMBD supply May to August and let’s call it total of 3 MMBD with non-OPEC. Ref runs plus crude burn will be up more like 4-5 MMBD with economies booming and the world opening up = huge crude stk draws!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

This wk oil price should see downward pressure from a combo of: very limited Rus exp loss in March, Houthis 3day ceasefire, OPEC cont'd output incr, end Quartr fin rebalancing, Covid esp in China & very possible JCPOA. These bearish elements will pull prices significantly lower.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

4 years

Congratulations to OPEC+ for an historic output cut! The problem is I can’t look forward bc there is no visibility on demand. All the dem est have been revised down regularly so I have no confidence in 3q rebound mkt is pricing in re structure or thinking in terms of flat price.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

With SPR release and some dem impact from incr Covid cases/Omicron, OPEC+ will have to postpone 1Q incr for prices mostly in the 70s for Brent. Friday’s price decline was overdone given Omicron info so far but not shocking given low liq&need to hedg. Mkt loves to run people over!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Oil price a bit shaky. Bigger risk oil breaks $90 vs break $100. Recession in Eur, Covid in China, weak dem elsewhere and USG yr end inventory taxes to weigh on prices. Also mkt getting comfortable Rus vol loss will be small.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

The OPEC+ cut was required to reduce the extent of the 4Q imbalance between supply and demand but its timing was politically insensitive and it wasn't orchestrated in such a way that it was clear that it was economically driven rather than politically.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Where is all the oil? We are ~ past the weakest dem of the yr (apr/m) and very low stks have barely built in the 3 major OECD mkts, the key pricing centers. Bulk build is in Chin/Rus oil on water bc flows redirected + difficult to sell. With Houthis attacks back 6/2 remain bull.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

ABS saved the day for OPEC+ with Saudi 1 MMB/D vol cut in July, the lollipop! W/o Saudi backstop mkt would have slid further;this action should stabilize in $75/$85 range. But big crude build this week will not help. Bulls will have to wait on stk draws for phys mkt to lead way.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Oil prices had a good wk and should continue to perform to the upside. Prices incrd even with the rally in treasuries indicative of tightening oil S&D. Look for a big crude stock draw this wk

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Even GS can’t scare the bull market. Crude is tight and so is the key seasonal product. The oil market needs Iranian oil if it is going to balance!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

There is no spare capacity in the midst of an unfolding major supply interruption! Add in very low oil inventories and that is why u r over $100. There is surge capacity left but not sustainable spare. We r running on empty! Difficult part is when recession hits!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

I remain bullish oil with stock draws continuing helped by colder weather. OPEC+ has plenty of flexibility to deal with Iran returning when it occurs. The next leg up will be when Asia returns in force to buy AB oil which is not far away.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Keep it simple II:even tighter crude S&D. 2022 crude runs incr >liquids dem bc prod inv are very low and most of 22 dem incr will be ref prods. Run in 2022 +4.5-5.0MMBD +flow deficit 1.2 in 2021 so need 5.7-6.2 to bal vs OPEC sustain spare 3.5+ Non-OPEC crude +2.Solver is PRICE!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

If Iran oil comes back highly unlikely initial reaction will be higher prices since will result in 220-250 million barrels of more oil in 2022 with say 30% in immediately available current inventory which will hit the front of the market.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

11 months

Fin length normalizing. Physical crude mkt has caught fire;typical OPEC cut mkt...had to be patient, and now seeing impact. Structure bid and now global refiners scrambling for sweet crude= higher AB benchmarks. ABS knows the oil mkt like u know your kids!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

Oil got a lot cheaper than I thought, but the hard landing crowd just got surprised by another rel strong US employ and global comp PMI. This +buying by both consumers and Asian ref for 3Q should further support AB prices. Plus OPEC+ meets early Jun & ABS hates short speculators!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Oil price is now more fairly valued and has good support from product mkts. Products should get stronger & despite Variant strong econ growth to continue. Thus I am still bull. Need to watch new Iran gov re JCPOA. Buts also lots of risk to supply in Libya, Nig & hurricanes.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

Oil market in the grip of macro environment. Oil S&D not strong enough to exert influence on price. Oil has no support as long as OPEC stays silent.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

OPEC put demonstrated by today's agreed 2 MMBD headline cut. Ensures prices generally over $90 Brent. Still some crude stock builds ahead but then draws in Dec. US reaction: perhaps sell remaining 15 MMB of orig 180 MMB sale in Dec but we will still draw commercial stocks!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Oil market in transition with increased ref runs as refineries return from maintenance. This puts upward pressure on crude prices and raises product supply. Diesel stocks build while 4 gasoline incr supply goes up against rising seasonal dem, & it takes leadership role.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

Wow at the 5/3 Brent close of $72.33 the value of net financial length was sign below the pandemic low at the end of 3/2020. What are financial guys thinking...they r net short over 200 million barrels of Ice Brent/gasoil.,,yd was the beginning of their pain... more is likely!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Weather/ maintenance issues highlight the fragility of global oil infrastructure after a sign period of low prices cut spending. Throw in what the majors are doing as e.g. BP hugely cutsE&P capex and take a gander of Saudi oil rig counts below and we have ourselves a bull mkt!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

4 years

I agree with Vitol that we will see continued oil demand growth for at least ten years! Everyone hates oil right now and I actually am constructive on price. We had flush basis dem rev lower and it is a good time to be bullish when everyone is bearish.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

We need stock draws for crude oil to rally. We are getting closer but not there yet. Two other features which are key for the upcoming rally is an Asian pull from the AB and a swing by refiners from sour to sweet, both of which are also getting closer. Stay tuned!! Obv watch IrAn

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

I remains bullish oil but short term there are sign headwinds, like another big EIA crude build this wk, 26 mil Bbl US SPR release to come out shortly (reqd in Fiscal 23)and the fact that a lot of recent Chinese buying was stk building and therefore borrowing from future demand.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

4 years

Oil is dead. International and domestic market seized up on too much oil. Sorry to say heading to single digits!

Jim Cramer

@jimcramer

4 years

Oil worries me.. I do not want to see it crater here as the algorithms are set to bring down the S&P when oil craters

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Retest of the lows should be over. Market always bottoms when everyone is bearish. Vaccinations increasing, econ outlook bullish, geopolitical risks to supply are huge with Iran daily lobbing missiles at KSA and still dem for inflation hedge. Market cleansed and likely go higher!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Oil inv in 3 maj OECD mkts are lower than 2010/2014, gas/disty dem is same & ref margins better. Crude stocks built in 1Q of those years but not much or at all now..yet then we r mostly $100-120/B. China,where most new ref cap,gas/disty exp r way down vs 21. All very BULL!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

Oil looks set for a strong wk during IP; a bit of cold, decent EIA stats, bull talk about China opening and upcoming buying, a resilient econ led by services and lots of geopol risks to supply;front and center being Russia but also who knows where ongoing Israeli/Iran "war" goes!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Bull mkt with huge refining margins the accelerator for crude oil prices and time spreads. Runs go up 4+ MMBD in August vs Apr/May but supply up <1 MMBD. OPEC+ deal to end yr gives Russia veto power over utilization of OPEC spare cap if want Rus to remain in group which they do!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

With OPEC+ deal to add 400 MBD aug/dec with option to change course after monthly review, prices are likely to move higher bc huge crude stock draws, esp next wks EIA. 200-300 MBD extra from UAE will not change things. With >80 Brent soon, then mkt will face new challenges

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Sorry missing all the action but making memories! Deer Valley is great!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

I am bull. Mkt flush healthy. Daily attacks on Saudi r bull and if as rumored buy Turk drones to respond, watch out. China/trader stk draws weaken phys mkt but eventually will need fresh supply while Apr 1 Opec likely to forego incr and tighten compliance pointing to tighter 2Q.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Micro in oil market is just fine with low stocks and more stock declines to come. The macro is not with Omicron undermining econ and oil dem outlook. Without Omicron we would be 75/80 Brent or even higher but now stuck 70/75. NYC is on fire re cases, runnin to Florida to escape😱

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

I am still bullish oil but paper ran ahead of phys so consolidating move. Stocks still drawing and OPEC+ in control. Lots of bullish factors:cold, Nigeria/Libya prod issues, Iran 20% enrich, xtra Saudi cut and vaccine but dem still limping from Covid. If China ok then price ok

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

The 'lollipop' is finally paying off. Stocks draws are broadly here; backwardation has increasd, discouraging rolling shorts and encouraging fin length via roll yield. That together with buy back of inventory hedges, all lifting flat price. Shift sour to sweet helping as well!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

4 years

Can u imagine WTI at Cush $21.50/B and yet it is the highest priced crude in NA. Like a magnet it is attracting Bbls with no place to put them. Cush will be full by end April and the teens in Midland will become single digits. Brent is also a lost cause!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

9 months

Physical mkts are screaming with backwardation heading higher, dragging flat price higher. Macro worries are overblown; just look at US employment data! With Israel at war, grand deal DOA for now. Iran behind Hamas attack; when does proxy war become direct Israel/Iran conflict?

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Oil can't withstand the pressure from the S&P w the 2 linking back up after oil had been a safe haven. $ has taken over that role for now. Oil mkt also worried re Covid in Beijing with China dem crippled by Shanghai lockup. Bulls will have to wait on EU re next steps against Rus

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Vlad's economic leverage now is just oil. How does he respond to nationalization of Rosneft German refineries? Still supply them visa Druzhba? How respond to Dec 5 Euro import ban/price caps? Fasten your seatbelts!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

AB crude stk draws from now until yr end, support nearby structure and flat price though the latter will be held hostage by SPR risk. Oil mkt is tight and will get tighter with winter dem, Turkish strait delays and unexpected outages. With 30 mmb SPR 79/84 Brent; without 84/89

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Oil prices will continue to move higher,but not in straight line, given explosive econ growth, reflation trade, geo risks to supply(incl not so shadow war betw Israel & Iran)and in turn tightening S&D. Physical cash diffs have gen bottomed 4 crude/prod and will improve further.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Thru the 1st 8 mo of this yr, OECD comm oil inventories built 60 mil B, while Govt stks drew roughly 180 mil B for a net flow deficit of 120 mmb or 500 MBD during first eight months! At current prices Gov't are refilling stks in Eur and in US further new sales may be postponed.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

I remain bull oil. Phys mkts r weak but don’t drive flat price. Fin length does and reflation trade still there with econ growth powering ahead +$ wobbly + geo supply risks + OPEC 4/28. Yes Iran a concern but good part priced in and talk is just that.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

4 years

I am a bull by nature so when I’m not bullish people should take note.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Hawkish Fed plus increased prob of Iran deal vs potential Rus invasion Ukraine right after Winter Olympics, very low inventories, strong dem prospects + low global spare capacity. Still very bullish oil market but like always things to worry about.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

$ strength & related S&P collapse are wrecking balls for commodities. Can't get financial guys in this backdrop to look past physical weakness during Oct ref T/A to buy oil. Thought they would but are not despite attractive price set.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Iranian crude output is 2.3 MMBD with average crude exports of 700 mbd and by end 2022 would be 3.5 mmbd of output. This idea that at capacity now is MORONIC plus have storage of over 80 mmb. My analysis is driven by numbers not gossip!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

Rough day for oil longs but everyone with a pencil has bullish 2H balances and market needs to test recent length. The backdrop remains very bullish with the summer months esp so. Kurd exp still zero and clock ticking re May OPEC +cuts & eventual Iran/Israel War!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

S&P/oil do not like extremes in DXY or 10 yr; creates too much angst. Thus sell off and now rebound. Last March a good analog. Oil bull mkt intact and now ref margins an added lift for crude. But not a straight line up bc still worry out there but inevitably higher.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

27 days

The mkt punished OPEC for contemplating an incr in 4Q--silly for them to plan 4Q increases now unless a carrot to US to forestall an SPR increase if mkt tightens as expected in 3Q. Net fin length has to be very low, likely less than the lows in 2023, suggesting a bottom is near!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

OPEC + deal removes cohesion risk but adds supply and incentive to incr capacity. Need products to lead us higher and not ready. Need East to pull AB crude and not ready. So we chop around for a while. If can’t buy front certainly can’t buy back.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Worst may now be over for crude with US warning China re Iran buy and talk Saudi will postpone increase in May. Prices down 6$ from high, Chinese should be happy with that so should be near return to market. Forward market esp May and June still tight despite third wave fears.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

11 months

As of August 8 financial guys were net short 69 million barrels of gas oil. So they are still short, waiting for the US to go into recession. More pain to come!

london-oil-trader

@oiltraderlondon

11 months

@kingofcrude It is just the physical guys getting stopped out of their paper shorts. They pushed the front two gasoil spreads onto contango

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 months

There is no significant spare oil producing capacity outside of Saudi Arabia! Spare capacity is more like 2%, not 6%! If don't believe me then chk out what BP CEO said in February.,.I'm sure he knows!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

5 months

Crude stocks are indeed low. Last year we built quite a bit of crude oil but this Jan we have drawn a lot, driven by substantial y/y decline in OPEC exports, US freeze, Libyan outage and oil delayed bc Red Sea attacks and Turkish strait delays,

Dr. Ilia Bouchouev

@IliaBouchouev

5 months

I'm not a barrel counter myself, but based on my cursory look Cushing appears to have dropped to the lowest level in a decade for this time of the year. #OOTT #oil $CL

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

Physical crude mkt coming to life. Trade month balances tightening. Nigerian loading problems growing. Once sell off precipitated by macro ends we will go back up and make new highs. Just giving up recent outperformance. Still 67+ Brent!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

S&D deteriorating. Crude builds ahead barring hurricane. Lowering price range 85/100 on Brent.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

4 years

You wonder why WTI is above $20 when other US crudes are in teens? Well there is $2.1 billion invested in front month wti via the USO. This will have to be rolled at a current 16% discount in early April...what an investment 😜

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

8 months

So much for weak US oil dem; Aug PSM came in up 935 MBD or 4.5% Y/Y with diesel up 302 MBD or +7.3%--so much for a trucking recession! Gasoline was up 2.0% or 184 MBD. The weekly data has to be taken with a grain of salt! T

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

So much for a another test lower. Hard with bull seasonal. Cute but wrong. Omicron less threatening so far with little impact flights and mobility holding up. Cant be right all the time😜

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Some short term dem loss from Omicron but good part offset by supply disruptions in Lib, Nig & Ecu. Stocks are very low, econ strong and spare cap rel low. S&P (risk) looking past Omicron. Worry about Iran coming back but still a very bull market! EIA draws crude again this wk

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

I hate being bullish on oil bc I don’t want the criminal regime in Moscow to benefit from higher prices. The stigma buying Rus blood oil will decr exp by over half &price will have to destruct dem to bal S&D which=further price incr even w Iran deal bc oil dem so price inelastic

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

4 years

Killing Iran’s Soleimani is a huge deal. He is a folk hero in Iran. Can no longer be short crude. This will escalate and at this time don’t know how will end but oil flows at risk.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

1 year

With $ declining, S&P rallying and very little spec length, oil can go up esp in the back of the mkt with China reopening. Oil does look cheap. The front of the crude mkt could be dragged up but less than the back because of a large 1Q stock build.

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

2 years

Size of April Rus oil exp loss is key to oil price. If need dem destruction then prices have to go up bc dem so price inelastic. At 2x typ elas on crud need $10-20 Bbl incr to decr dem just 700 MBD. Consensus Rus exp loss basis IEA=2.5 MMBD =reqd dem destruction=higher prices!

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

5 years

Today’s attack on the heart of the Saudi oil industry will raise the risk premium for oil which has been overly depressed at over $10/B below fair value. Onshore crude stocks are below last year and oil on water (ex Iran) are 80 mmb lower. Fasten your seatbelts! #OOTT #ARAMCO

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

11 months

As I recently pointed out , Europe has been taking 300-400 mbd diesel from US while east/west arb is closed plus we r going into refinery turnarounds in Sept, Hurricane season is upon us and we have not built sufficient inventory when we should have been doing so!

Rory Johnston

@Rory_Johnston

11 months

⛽️ It's important to stress how wild refined product crack spreads continue to be. These levels aren't normal—current diesel cracks are the highest in history, excluding last year—and it's hard to say when normal is going to return. Diesel crack spreads (i.e., refining margin):

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Dr. Gary N. Ross

@kingofcrude

3 years

We continue to consolidate recent move higher. There is another leg up to come once AB crude stock draws resume in earnest.

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