BREAKING: Odds of a Fed rate cut by September 2024 skyrocket to 83% after June CPI inflation, according to
@Kalshi
.
June 2024 marked the first NEGATIVE month-over-month inflation print since May 2020.
Headline inflation is now at a 12-month low and 100 basis points away from
CPI inflation in June fell by -0.1% in June 2024, below expectations of a +0.1% increase. This is officially the first NEGATIVE month-over-month inflation print since May 2020.
The market is now showing an 84% chance the Fed cuts interest rates by September.
BREAKING: June CPI inflation rate falls to 3.0%, below expectations of 3.1%.
Core CPI inflation fell to 3.3%, below expectations of 3.4%.
This marks the 39th consecutive month with inflation at or above 3%.
It's also the 3rd straight month with declining CPI inflation.
Inflation in May was 3.3% and the median estimate for June is at 3.1%. All eyes are on this print as it inform the Fed’s decision for the future path of interest rates
All eyes are on the CPI print tomorrow.
The median estimate is 3.1% but looking at the distribution of the odds, the inflation print is more likely to come in lower than expected than higher than expected.
This may strengthen the narrative that the Fed will begin cutting soon
All eyes are on the CPI print tomorrow.
The median estimate is 3.1% but looking at the distribution of the odds, the inflation print is more likely to come in lower than expected than higher than expected.
This may strengthen the narrative that the Fed will begin cutting soon
Tomorrow's CPI inflation data is HUGE:
The median forecast for headline CPI inflation is 3.1%, but markets are showing a wide range.
Prediction markets currently show that there is a 19% chance of June CPI inflation coming in ABOVE 3.1%, according to
@Kalshi
.
On the other
me explaining why the cpi is so important tomorrow because the path of interest rates depends on the cpi and how basically everything in our economy is delicately interconnected with everything else so i literally can’t miss an economic data print or the chance to trade it
I hate small talk.
I want to talk about atoms, aliens, what CPI will be this month, magic, the meaning of life, how many times the Fed will cut rates this year, faraway galaxies, what Biden’s approval rating will be this month, weather markets…
I don’t want to know “what’s up”