Javier Corrales @jcorrales2011 Twitter profile

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

1 year

It's out! I'll tweet a brief summary thread later.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

1 year

The dictatorship in Venezuela, as in Cuba, has discovered the benefit of mass exodus. Dissent leaves. Money comes in.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

AMLO continues his attack on Mexico's electoral insitutute (INE). This is very serious. Thread.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

4 years

Dos teorías: Gob de EEUU se convenció de que gob de Maduro se volvió más frágil con el Coronavirus, o, gob de EEUU se convenció que la reelección de Trump en la FL se volvió más frágil con el Coronavirus.

El Estímulo

@elestimulo

4 years

EE UU ofrece recompensa por Nicolás Maduro y cartel de los Soles

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 months

Latin America has had plenty of powerful women in politics. María Corina, however, is a new phenomenon. 🧵

María Corina Machado

@MariaCorinaYA

2 months

Como el Orinoco… inmenso, potente e indetenible!! Vean esto. Puerto Ayacucho, #Amazonas .

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

Except for Boric, unimpressive performance by LatinAm presidents at the UN. Too much sesentismo (60s discourse). Bolsonaro: the left is a threat; Arce/Petro: the US is the threat. Bukele: Only I can make my nation sovereign. Boring stuff. No wonder people pay no attention to LAC.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

8 months

Do we have a model to predict elections in Latin Am? Yes. Short thread

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

3 years

Asamblea constituyente Chile 2021 v. Vzla 1999: Semejanzas y diferencias. Abro hilo (basado en ideas de mi libro Fixing Democracy).

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

One reason Russia is supporting the status quo in Vzla is that Russia is actually profiting from Vzla's collapse. Here's one more example. There is a correlation between Vzla's oil production decline, and Russia's oil exports increase.

Trade Wars and Drone Strikes Are Realigning OPEC

An uncertain demand outlook and looming supply shortfall will pit the Saudis against Russia, and create a standoff with Iran and Venezuela.

www.bloomberg.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

7 months

Re Ecuador and Gangs. Here's why it is so difficult to address the security threat posed by gangs anywhere in Latin America. Gangs combine power assets associated with traditional security threats, but with innovations. Thread.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

3 years

In many Latin American countries, the problem is democratic deficits. In Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua, the problem is autocratic surpluses. For me, the difference is clear.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

No me convence mucho eso de que las sanciones de EEUU van a crear más hambre. Las únicas sanciones q crean hambre en Vzla son las q Maduro impone: controles de precio, destrucción de PDVSA, monopolios militares, y rienda suelta a los colectivos. Ésas sí son sanciones.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

I'm with the protesters. AMLO wants the new electoral authority to be determined by majority vote. Sounds democratic but in reality, it is anti-democratic. Let me explain why. via @WSJ

Mexicans Protest President’s Plans to Overhaul Election Agency

Opponents say President López Obrador’s bill to overhaul electoral system watchdog puts Mexico’s democracy at risk.

www.wsj.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

Guaidó has managed to make the Chavista govt panic for its life, three times now. He has demonstrated to Chavistas that they will never, ever feel secure in power. Always in red alert. A very different scenario from the complacent Chavismo of 2005-2018.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

Peru’s democracy handled the attempted self coup better than the US. Castillo was repudiated by his cabinet, was impeached, and then arrested. In the US the coup leader completed his term in office, became party king, and lives freely in a FL mansion.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

The big story in Bolivia is not so much the role of the military, but of Intl institutions: the OAS. They busted the govt, forced them to accept an audit, produced a devastating report, and provoked serious defections by the ruling party. It unraveled the govt. That’s power.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

8 months

Why do autocracies hold elections and referenda? The two most important reasons are to signal something to the opposition and to acquire information. If so..,

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

6 years

El éxodo de Vzla tiene parecidos con Cuba. Casi el 10% de Cuba salió en 1959-63, seguido de 4 olas posteriores. La diferencia principal: Castro siempre controlaba salidas. Tenía algo de interés en retener cerebros. Maduro no. Su lema: Que se vayan todos

Surge in Cuban immigration to U.S. continued through 2016

Overall, 56,406 Cubans entered the U.S. via ports of entry in fiscal year 2016, up 31% from fiscal 2015.

www.pewresearch.org

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

1 year

In China, I bet Venezuela is seen as its biggest overseas failure. No new loan to Vzla since 2015. Horrible vote of no confidence. From darling to pariah. This has got to hurt Maduro more than US sanctions. (And they still have to service their debt.) @MyersMargaret

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

4 years

In Col, Per, Chi, Arg, or Bra, news of a president forcing a public official to create fake votes would have unleashed street protests, or at least, cacerolazos. US may have strong civil society and maybe institutions, but LatAm’s pro democracy civil society can be louder

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

4 years

Why Maduro Hasn't Fallen. My answer: Function Fusion. Just out in the Journal of Democracy.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

6 months

On Ron DeSantis quitting. The US is having the least competitive primaries I have seen in my life. If you study Latin American politics, you can pretty much understand what's going on in the US, to some extent.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

4 years

I have not seen a more impressive women’s movement than this one. They helped make Argentina democratic in the 1980s, pro human rights and pro quotas in the 90s, pro LGBT in the 2000s, and now pro choice. Women can change the world for the good of all.

Argentina abortion: Senate approves legalisation in historic decision

The law allows abortions up to the 14th week of pregnancy in the highly Catholic nation.

www.bbc.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

3 years

I think we have great language to describe the repression in Cuba. See thread.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

4 years

All totalitarian states expand schooling massively, for a reason. And it is not because they want to empower citizens.

Bernie Sanders didn’t mention the dark side of education in Castro’s Cuba

In refusing to acknowledge the brutal reality of the Cuban and Venezuelan regimes, Sanders demonstrated that he is just as soft on left-wing dictators and autocrats as Donald Trump is on …

thehill.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

The Colombian election is both reaffirming and defying major trends in Latin American politics.🧵

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

6 years

External actors did not change Venezuelan politics to embolden the opposition. It was the reverse. The brave, peaceful, legalistic, and strategic actions of the opposition starting in 2015 emboldened external actors to side with the opposition.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

6 years

Vzla's Juan Guaidó is not an outsider, but a groomed politician. Not a party-trasher, but a party leader; not a coup plotter but a constitutional strategist. Old-fashioned institutionalism doing democratization, as we speak.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

With the defeat of Bolsonaro and Trump (and the checks on Correa by Moreno in Ecu and Uribe by Santos in Col), we could say that the Western Hemisphere features some of the world’s most important cases of containment of democratic backsliding.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

Re-reading old classics. This oped from 2016 reminds us that the person in the Americas who perfected the idea of electoral denialism (I did not lose the election; there was fraud against me) was not Trump, or Bolsonaro, but AMLO

In Mexico, we know what happens when an election’s loser won’t admit defeat

Will Donald Trump turn into the next Andrés Manuel López Obrador?

www.washingtonpost.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

3 years

Great news. For the next 2 weeks was starting today, Cambridge is offering free access. Free downloads, everyone! Great for your syllabus: Short intro to the topic, with a comparison to abortion rights. Get it now.

The Politics of LGBTQ Rights Expansion in Latin America and the Caribbean

Cambridge Core - Latin American Studies - The Politics of LGBTQ Rights Expansion in Latin America and the Caribbean

www.cambridge.org

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

3 years

Coming soon. The Politics of LGBT Rights Expansion in Latin America and the Caribbean. This is a brief introduction to the topic

The Politics of LGBTQ Rights Expansion in Latin America and the Caribbean

Cambridge Core - Latin American Studies - The Politics of LGBTQ Rights Expansion in Latin America and the Caribbean

www.cambridge.org

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

3 years

Remember when Hugo Chávez created armed reservistas (2005) and milicias (2008), while the adoring left called him good for democracy? Hopefully this crowd now sees parallels. Presidents who promote armed civilians are never good democracy.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

1 year

Yesterday a journalist asked me if I had anything to say about Maduro’s 10th anniversary in power. I said: sure, Autocracy Rising.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

8 months

Elected newcomers in the Americas: Not too many happy endings. They don't often pacify. They often turn into (semi) dictators, or hyper corrupt, or both. Many experience early termination. There are exceptions, of course. @MarianaLlanosHa @leivm_academic @jpolga @aperezli

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

Re Peru: I wish the press would talk less about the pink tide and more about how the Castro-admiring pink presidents are all deep down auto-golpistas, anti constitution, and anti democratic.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

Great news today.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

1 year

Thank you everyone for your likes and RTs. Here's the promised summary thread. Autocracy Rising #Amazon via @Amazon

Autocracy Rising

www.amazon.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

6 years

The May 2018 election in Venezuela was the most irregular in the history of Chavismo, and that's saying a lot. In this 2018 paper I summarize all electoral irregularities committed in 20 years of chavismo, broken down by year, type, and effect.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

Senator, let me teach you some Spanish: cese de la usurpación. Now repeat after me, cese de la usurpación. That’s all you need to say. How hard is that?

Bernie Sanders

@SenSanders

5 years

The people of Venezuela are enduring a serious humanitarian crisis. The Maduro government must put the needs of its people first, allow humanitarian aid into the country, and refrain from violence against protesters.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

3 years

Latin America’s dilemma. Low tax collection —> underfunded states —> bad public services —> social discontent —> repression —> unwillingness to pay taxes for govts that are broke/inept/mean. We’ve been studying this trap since the early 1990s

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

In Latin America, we just saw two ways to erode democracy today. In Brazil, members of the military police smiling, taking selfies, and welcoming Bolsonarista mobsters. And in Colombia, Petro smiling and welcoming Venezuela's mobster in chief. Hasta cuándo.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

4 months

Why was the Corina^2 decision a very smart move? See 🧵

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

Amazing reporting. How China, Chávez and Boliburgueses used dollars, obtained from oil sales to the US, for self-gain. This occurred when Chavismo controlled all institutions in Vzla, including Congress. No accountability = no development.

How a Chinese venture made millions while Venezuelans grew hungry

A Chinese rice project in Venezuela illustrates a kickback culture in which intermediaries milked developments meant to help neglected corners of the country.

www.reuters.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

8 months

If the elections are free and fair, there is no commodity boom, and the economy is hugely mismanaged --> rage wins.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

Chávez, more so than Maduro, destroyed Vzla's PDVSA. Comparison with Col: Ven: Despite increases in reserves, PDVSA production declines, but employment surges. Rating: 1 star Col: despite having less oil, production surges while employment grows at a reasonable pace. 5 stars

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

3 years

5000 arrests in Cuba. In Brazil in 2015, when millions took to the streets to protest the government for various weeks, there were what, 100 arrests? Oh Yeah, the US embargo is the real problem in Cuba.

CubaBrief: Update on the protests in Cuba with over 5,000 detained or missing and footage of...

The Washington Post editorial, "After the Cuba protests, a regime shows its true colors" reported that on Sunday the protest began in San Antonio de los Baños, just South of Havana, and quickly...

cubacenter.org

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

4 years

Venezuela is in the midst of a major oil spill, the second in the last year. It's also cancelling political parties, yet again. These are two sides of the same coin.

Opinion | What the Oil Spill in Venezuela Tells Us About Its Politics (Published 2020)

The largest oil reserves and one of the world’s most incompetent governments have brought authoritarianism, economic collapse and environmental disaster to the country.

www.nytimes.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

The Republicans who vilified Obama for going to Cuba in 2016, where are you now?

Trump enters North Korea, announces nuclear talks will resume

President Trump made history on Sunday by becoming the first sitting U.S. president to cross into North Korea, a symbolic gesture toward Kim Jong Un during a meeting at the heavily guarded Demilita…

thehill.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

We argue that the rise of socially-conservative, homophobic, religious-flaunting populist movement is a predictor of forthcoming democratic backsliding. The argument also applies to countries where Islam is dominant: Erdoğan in Türkiye (since 2014), Saied in Tunisia (since 2021).

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

8 months

Thoughts on Venezuela’s foreign policy and Guyana. The concept of petro-aggression was best established by Jeff Colgan. How does Venezuela fit the theory? Pretty well, with caveats. See thread.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

8 months

Top 11 signs of democratic backsliding, as per Autocracy Rising #Amazon . Sorry I couldn't reduce them to 10. Here you go

Autocracy Rising

www.amazon.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

1 year

Autocracy Rising Book Launch yesterday, with empanadas, chorizos, yuquitas, tostones, 3-layer brownies, wine, Venezuelan music, video clip, faculty, students, and friends @AmherstBooks

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

6 years

When expresidents refuse to retire, they generate allergies. In Bra this allergic reaction is now overwhelming the country. XPs need to be stopped, but selective whitchhunt is not the way. A ban on repeated re-election is a better solution.

“Prexit”: Latin America’s Real 2018 Dilemma

Curtailing the influence of ex-presidents would create space for fresh leadership.

www.americasquarterly.org

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

Peru has it all: All the (thr)ills of presidential politics in LatAm. Good luck tyring to explain this in an undergraduate course in the US (and even in Peru)? See 🧵

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

Bolivia, dos modos de ver lo mismo: A) los militares dieron un golpe. B) los militares optaron por no dar un golpe contra el pueblo, es decir, optaron por no acompañar a un gobierno que hizo trampa, que nunca se disculpó, y que hubiera tenido que seguir reprimiendo.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

These are the kind of people who imposed Castro-Chavismo in Venezuela: More than 700 companies in FL today are owned or managed by former high-ranking chavistas, including 232 members of the military.

Former ‘Iron lady’ of Chavez’s courts now invests in Florida real estate with a steely grip

She once defended the socialist revolution from Venezuela’s highest court. Now she invests millions in South Florida real estate

www.miamiherald.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

3 years

Cubans demanded "freedom" and "food," the essential building blocks for the human spirit and body. You need them to have patria y vida. My oped today.

Opinion | The Day Cubans Lost Their Fear (Published 2021)

There’s something new about the island-nation’s demonstrations: Cubans have overcome the fear of joining together.

www.nytimes.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

4 years

⁦Another way to look at this, the opposition in Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua is weaker today than before the start of the Trump administration in 2017. Embargoes + White House incompetence hurt the opposition more than dictators ⁦ @frrodriguezc ⁩

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

1 year

Mientras más quiere defender a Cuba, más la hunde. Hilo.

Vicky Dávila

@VickyDavilaH

1 year

La vicepresidenta Francia Márquez no cree que Cuba es una dictadura. Dice que Colombia sí lo es. Aquí el interesante fragmento de su entrevista con SEMANA

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

With Castillo, Latin America and the Caribbean now has 24 cases of interrupted presidencies since 1985 (counting only those who came to power via elections). All cases are different. But here are some commonalities (and differences)

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

3 years

There aren’t that many women dictators in republics. Nicaragua has given us one. Rosario Murillo. See thread for comparisons

EU sanctions Nicaragua's vice-president

The EU said Rosario Murillo, the first lady and VP, is one of 14 individuals responsible for "serious human rights violations" ahead of Nicaragua's election this year.

www.dw.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

4 years

Contrary to what many think, Trump has actually strengthened Maduro, fractured the opposition, and weakened the international coalition against Maduro. He can sound tough but he has delivered weakness

Leopoldo Martínez: Trump ha debilitado la unidad de la oposición en Venezuela

El presidente del Centro para la Democracia y Desarrollo de Las Américas, sigue al pie del cañón en el intento de recuperar la democracia en Venezuela

elcooperante.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

6 months

Bukele is expected to win a massive re-election in ElS. What do we know about presidents who win re-election with a large margin of victory in Latam? Here are the top re-election winners since the 1980s. Except in DR, what follows is not stronger democracy, or even democracy.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

8 months

Caracas in 1976. The country was so wealthy that its airport was one of the busiest in Latin America. Air France chose Caracas as one of its destinations for the Concorde. In aviation, there was no prestige greater than that back then.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 months

What's the relationship between Presidents and their former sponsors? Everyone wants to know re: Sheinbaum/AMLO. Well, it's complicated. Sometimes they become allies, other times, mortal enemies. See below (deceased = sponsor dies).

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 months

Lots of talk of constitutional change in Latin America. Short 🧵

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

3 years

Huge controversy in Vzla regarding new ruling 002-2021 requiring NGOs to register with the state to prove their innocence. Hmm. Sounds a lot like one of Cuba's most repressive articles from its Código Penal, also requiring NGOs to register with the state, or else... Copycat.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

6 years

Poquito a poquito. The decline of Venezuela's foreign policy. Countries supporting Venezuela at the OAS, 2014-18.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

1 year

Thank you @MoisesNaim @fmonaldi and Erica Frantz for these words. They mean the world to me.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

Cuba just approved Same Sex Marriage. No doubt, huge progress in one of the most homophobic revolutions ever. But let’s not get carried away. Here’s the problem. Short thread.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

4 years

Worth repeating: No (Independent) Courts, No Democracy. Courts are emerging as key actors in LatAm blocking presidents, expresidents and their spouses from breaking the law and seeking re-election. They are helping the region fight strongman politics

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

Los 60s están de moda en los populistas de AmLat: Bolsonaro celebra golpe '64 AMLO de camino a dejar de exportar petróleo, lo que sucedió en Méx por 1era vez en '66 Maduro quiere recrear crisis de los misiles '62 Morales imita re-eleccionismo de Paz Estenssoro '64 Hacia atrás.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

9 months

Argentina's 2nd round. Thoughts on continuismo. I understand the anguish. I understand that Massa represents the worst govt in Arg's history. I understand that Milei represents a crazy gunman. I undertand feeling trapped. But, here's something to think about, if you haven't yet

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

1 year

Argentina continues to defy theory. Theory predicts that democracies typically generate moderate but stable growth. There is nothing moderate or stable in Argentina since its democratic transition. Econ busts in particular are extreme, frequent, or both.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

7 months

Conclusion, Latin American states are experiencing a new high in terms of security threat. No previous security threat compares with the level and complexity of the security threat posed by gangs. Security threats in this new era of Gang Warfare is like nothing before.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

1 year

Routes to democratic backsliding: 1) change the const to favor the president 2) capture the supreme court 3) tinker with electoral authorities 4) colonize the bureaucracy AMLO has not been able to take routes 1 and 2, so he is focusing on 3 and 4.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

Colombia’s front-runner Gustavo Petro has said he would re-establish relations with Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro. But what does this mean? There are at least four possible models. See short thread.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

Let's analyze. The problems and the traps. First, the problems: See thread.

Brian Winter

@BrazilBrian

2 years

These 2 charts. Oh man. ⁦ @eclac_un ⁩ data via ⁦ @FT ⁩

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

8 months

If the elections are free and fair, AND there is no commodity boom --> the opposition wins.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

6 months

US policy toward Venezuela seems to not matter. Sanctions didn't work. Engagement seems not to work. Everything has been tried; nothing has prevented the rise of autocracy, since 1999. See thread via @bpolitics

US Concerned by Venezuelan Government’s Actions Against Opposition

A top Biden administration official said that the US is concerned by actions that Venezuela’s government has taken against the opposition and civil society a few months after an agreement aimed at...

www.bloomberg.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

11 months

Milei is trying to say he is an outsider (self myth) and indispensable (here we go) to punish everyone (“que se vayan todos” is back). In the Americas, we have experience with outsiders: Chávez, Trump, Morales, Castillo, Bucaram, Aristide. Sure, those episodes went well.

Informe Orwell

@InformeOrwell

11 months

🇦🇷 Javier Milei: "A Argentina solo la puede arreglar un outsider, nosotros armamos esto para entrar y sacarlos a todos con una patada en el culo, se acabó la joda..."

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

The Financial Times @FT recommended Dragon in the Tropics, my book with the great @penfold_michael

Seven books that help explain Venezuela’s current crisis

In a new series, each week an FT journalist will share their recommendations for further reading on a topic in the news

www.ft.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

1 year

I think any high-school student doing Model UN would do better. Comments like: peace is hard (duh), both countries made the decision to go to war (really?), Europe and the US are promoting the war (what about sanctions), etc., only show that Lula lacks both depth and knowledge.

Metrópoles

@Metropoles

1 year

Lula volta a comentar invasão russa à Ucrânia. “Decisão da guerra foi tomada por dois países”. Em entrevista coletiva na madrugada deste domingo (16), presidente do Brasil repetiu que EUA e Europa contribuem para a continuidade do conflito. Assista ▶️

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

4 years

Let's stop the narrative that the US is an unusual case of a saved democracy. Since the 80s LatAm has had 21 crises leading to presidential interruptions, each endangering democracy. In all, constitutional order was restored. That democracy won in US was great, but not unique.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 months

If I had to compile a list of the top 5 rules that most certainly yield dictatorship and ruin policy quality, indefinite re-election would certainly be on it.

El Estímulo

@elestimulo

2 months

Bukele, en El Salvador, avanza hacia la reelección indefinida | Por @infocracia

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

1 year

In an autocracy, corruption probes don’t mean corruption probes. The rule of law is not being advanced. It’s the opposite. It’s autocratic legalism on steroids, a new chance for the autocrat to purge, to go for the kill, and get away with more corruption.

Venezuela's Maduro to replace oil minister, police arrest officials in corruption sweep

Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro on Monday accepted the resignation of the country's powerful oil minister following the detention of at least six high level officials amid a corruption probe...

www.reuters.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

Here I try to show how the for policies of Vzlan actors are shaping the intl response. LatAm govts are not opposing Vzla because they are on the right; they are on the right now, and criticizing Venezuela, in response to what Vzla did to their country

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

China did it, apparently. Implications: 1) Chi is calling the shots in Vzla--wow 2) finally provoking some transparency--wow 3) intent on having Vzla comply with IMF, the symbol of savage neoliberalism--wow 4) in order to defend a most illiberal govt--wow

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

No les da vergüenza. Decir que éste es el futuro del país.

Leonardo Vera

@LeonardoVera60

5 years

Nos quedamos sin palabras viendo este clip oficial del gob de Maduro. Una apología a la destrucción del mayor capital natural de Venezuela. Neo-extractivismo depredador puro y crudo. Según, así será el futuro del ya triste país que han dejado.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

My sense is that Lula’s coalition today is vastly different from his first coalition in 2003. 🧵

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

8 months

Democratic backsliding is still happening, but we might be entering a new era. A good name could be: illiberal resilience. If a regime becomes illiberal, escape chances are low. Democratic springs are now rare (Pol excepted); autocratic resilience, common

Don’t Count the Dictators Out

The underappreciated resilience of today’s autocracies.

www.foreignaffairs.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

In Central America, we have loud democratic backsliders (Nic & ELS), but also more slow-creep backsliders: Guatemala. Their actions don't attract headlines but are terrible nonetheless.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

9 months

Esto es una maravilla. Vengan a este Zoom. Conversaremos con David Altman, uno de los colaboradores principales de V-Dem sobre su último informe. En español. No se lo pierdan. @CharlemosLA @daltmano @policentrica

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

6 years

The difference between the GOP and the Dems. It's not just the numbers.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

3 years

Peru and outsiders: 15 newcomers have become presidents in the Americas, including Trump. Here's their record: 5 became semi-authoritarian 4 left office prematurely 2 carried out or tried self coups 2 sought refuge abroad on charges of corruption 1 pleaded guilty to corruption

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

2 years

Congratulations to @MoisesNaim @Yascha_Mounk @FukuyamaFrancis @dstreisman Best summer books of 2022: Politics

Best summer books of 2022: Politics

Gideon Rachman selects his best mid-year reads

www.ft.com

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

Those who argue that all that all the US wants in Vzla is oil may not understand this dynamic: Vzla' oil collapse -> less OPEC production -> oil price increases -> more incentives to produce shale oil in US -> less interest by the US in Vzla oil.

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

5 years

Those who have questioned me for saying that Guaidó has the heart of nation should look at the latest Datanalisis poll, or this video.

Steve Hanke

@steve_hanke

5 years

“The Guaidó Hurricane” #Venezuela

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Javier Corrales

@jcorrales2011

1 year

More than 7M Venezuelans have left. This has positive consequences for authoritarian rule. (Half of Venezuelan households have relatives abroad; 1/3 of those households receive remittances, often in US$). Less need for the government to worry about providing welfare.

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