Always love the annual UK energy sankey chart. A useful reminder that electricity is still only a small fraction of total energy supply. Making it green isn't the issue, its electrifying the rest of the economy which is the real challenge for net zero.
📉NEW: Senior Cabinet ministers believe there should be a rethink of the net zero pledge, the Telegraph can disclose.
One says the UK “should not be running towards net zero so aggressively” as millions face soaring bills.
Another: “The priority should be the cost of living.”
🧵Looks like we will finally see the long-promised UK Energy Strategy this week. Lots has been written on what technologies Govt will commit to, but five key things I am looking for beyond the headlines...
Always an important energy day with
@NationalGridESO
publishing it’s future scenarios for what our future energy system could look like. Scale of change needed summed up well in two killer charts.
THREAD: Given the Prime Minister will shortly publish his long-awaited 10-point green plan, I thought I would set out what I would have recommended he did if I was still in No10. Lots no doubt missing, but hopefully ambitious, while still being politically possible.
Of all the bad ideas to help with current cost of living challenges this is one of the worst. Energy efficiency investment doesn’t increase bills, it lowers them. Deeply regret the cuts to funding in 2013/14 and must avoid repeating that mistake again.
Planning one of the first work trips in a long while. £300 for a return train trip to Manchester from London vs £160 to fly. Yet another reminder that our carbon pricing system needs an overhaul...
Given today's focus on
#Treasury
delivering a
#GreenRecovery
, here's a short thread on the 5 things I would be advising the Chancellor to do if I was still there. As an ex-Treasury official there will be too few ££s for some, but hopefully still ambitious.
Ironically, Trump may have accidentally done more than any other US President on the climate agenda by providing China an incentive to use it as a geopolitical tool by committing to Net Zero. Funny how things turn out...
For the energy wonks, probably one the most radical rethink on energy being discussed. Would be a big political shift after the bruising arguments over this in 2015. Community input still vital but one of the few quick wins to get off Russian gas.
Based on the interview on
@BBCr4today
with Rachel Reeves this morning, it genuinely sounds like Labour are committing to get to 100% green power by 2030, without any gas on the system (unless with CCS). However much we would all love that, it’s simply not going to happen…
Why let facts get in the way. Global fossil fuel prices are to blame for the current energy chaos, not some windmills in the North Sea. We really have tipped over the edge if we no longer back generating our own energy in the face of a geopolitical crisis.
(1/7) Excited to launch my 🌿'Green Money' 🌿report with
@WeAreBrightBlue
proposing a comprehensive reform of carbon taxes to hit net zero emissions. Alongside other measures to drive investment and support consumers carbon pricing is critical, but...
An interesting document out from Govt on public attitudes to net zero. Not detailed polling, but in-depth conversations about what people really think about the transition. Three useful bits to reflect on...
NEW
Analysis: Nearly 90% of the rise in UK household energy bills is due to wholesale gas prices
The rest is mainly paying for supplier failures, whereas climate policy costs are falling
Despite the near hallucinations from reading too many Govt documents for one lifetime today, a thread in four graphs of my key takeaways from the main one - the Net Zero Strategy...Its a beast of a document that will set the agenda for the green agenda up to the next election.
Interesting nugget buried in latest Govt nuclear document. Confirmation that Sizewell C will fully be on the Govt's balance sheet, meaning the taxpayer effectively takes on the full £20bn+ cost (alongside consumer payments). Can see why Treasury worried about one reactor a year!
On the return leg from Conservative Party Conference after a busy few days. Putting to one side the sleep deprivation, 3 key takeaways: (1) Whether we 'should' be doing net zero is no longer a debate. No questioning of the science and seen as a given that Govt must take action.
THREAD: Just catching up on the Treasury's Net Zero review. Vitally important report that fires the starting gun on developing a fair and equitable climate transition. Only an interim report, but a few interesting points to reflect on...
Pure madness. Myself and many others owe so much to the world-class fast stream that gave us the best possible start to a career in public service. Short-sighted beyond belief.
NEW: The civil service fast stream will be cancelled for at least a year after PM pushed through policy despite some Cabinet concern
Michael Gove objected. Treasury figures critical. But leaked minutes of May 19 Cab Office board meeting show it’s all done
(2) Demand, demand, demand: As well a boosting homegrown energy supply, must offer support to help reduce gas demand as a swifter option to reduce Russian reliance. Household energy efficiency obvious option, as well as support for industrials struggling with high bills.
One that might get lost in all the current politics of energy and net zero: Govt has published an important consultation on a new mechanism to bring more long-duration storage online (6 hours plus). Deploying 20GW could save £24bn by 2050...
THREAD (1/7) Quick take on 10 point green plan: Serious set of net zero commitments that show PM wants to make his record on green jobs central to the Tory platform at the next election. Further detail will be needed on delivery, but this is an important step-forward on net zero.
Just catching up with
@beisgovuk
future UK carbon pricing document. A few brief thoughts on an approach which while not quite ground-breaking at this stage, could yet set the gold standard on carbon pricing internationally ahead of
#COP26
. (1/7)
Within all the chatter about a
#greenrecovery
, the decision by Germany on implementing an economy-wide carbon tax could actually be one of the most significant moves.
(1) Delivery, not targets: Easy to set GW targets, but vital that Govt outlines how it will actually deliver them on the ground. Commitment to a detailed planning and consenting review critical, as well as clarity on network delivery that is so vital for offshore wind and CCS.
Fascinating insights as always from
@NationalGridESO
in latest future energy scenarios. Lots to digest, but the scale of the transformation needed for net zero shown through two killer charts. Electrification of most of the economy, alongside hydrogen and negative emissions.
But I thought green levies would always add to bills...🤔
"milestone for the CfD scheme: the first quarter the scheme will return money to electricity suppliers"
Will be plenty of debate on whether today's plan to decarbonise UK homes is enough. Safe to say its not sufficient for net zero, but I think it's a strong start to the knottiest decarbonisation challenges. To push back on a three popular criticisms...
Back online after two weeks in the wilderness and catching up on some excellent energy / climate threads on what 2022 has in store...but for me there is only one key theme for the coming year - cost of living. Three key implications...
Might slip under the radar, but an important publication from the UK Govt on future offshore transmission connections. In short, signals a major shift to a more coordinated approach to offshore wind, which should reduce the impact of new infra onshore...
Finally time for that energy demand strategy? Good to see Govt thinking about how it can turbocharge energy efficiency ahead of hard winter ahead for millions. But not sure just using existing budgets reflects scale of what’s needed…
Despite slightly alarmist headline, a much needed modernisation of the energy system. As elec demand rises and sources become more diverse, it will be vital to give households the opportunity to flex demand to cut costs. Will mean cheaper bills for all.
In case you haven’t heard enough from us already,
@guynewey
and I have written in today’s
@thetimes
about what needs to be done to avert the next energy crisis. While immediate support for rising bills is a must, long-term three big energy priorities…
Whatever the internal political battle of today, safe to say net zero won’t be the bottom of voter concerns come the next general election. What is (or is not) said now will have lasting consequences for the Conservative Party come 2024.
Amazing to think COP26 ended just 72 days ago. Important speech today by
@AlokSharma_RDG
on what comes next - “There is no doubt that the commitments we secured at COP26 were historic. Yet at the moment they are just words on a page”.
🚨 Big day for UK energy policy tomorrow, with next stage of major government review on reforming the electricity market. Big watch-outs will be on locational pricing, breaking the link between gas and elec prices, and maintaining security of supply. Exciting energy wonk times 🚨
Energy geek day - annual publication of
@NationalGridESO
Future Energy Scenarios. A strong set of policy / market recommendations setting out the scale of the transformation needed from today's system, to a net zero one. Summed up perfectly in the ever popular Sankey diagrams...
The
@Policy_Exchange
team have today published a short paper on what the new PM should do immediately to support households through the energy bill crisis this winter.
TLDR: The scale of the challenge can’t be overestimated…
THREAD: Confess I am a tad bias having written a few versions, but great to see the publication of an enjoyable and far-reaching White Paper. No easy task outlining how to make net zero possible, but a great start made from Govt. Some key reflections..
THREAD: One final view (promise) on the PM’s 10-point plan now that the full document is out. Wanted to pick out 5 key things that officials have buried in the detail of the document that give a hint of more detailed Government thinking to come.
THREAD: While today's Spending Review focused largely on delivering the funding in the PM's green plan, the accompanying National Infrastructure Strategy included a series of key green commitments that are vital not to miss. My top five...
Quite a significant energy story. Declining nuclear generation will make it harder to keep carbon intensity of power falling over 2020s, hence the need to crack on with boosting flexibility to allow for greater renewable built out to 2030.
A useful timeline from
@Policy_Exchange
covering all the major energy and environmental big moments out to COP26 and beyond. A critical period ahead for putting the UK on course to net zero, with a lot to get done by the end of 2020....
Having avoided it for a decade thanks to being a civil servant, finally on the way to Manchester for Conservative party conference. Huge range of net-zero related events from the likes of
@Policy_Exchange
,
@CEN_HQ
,
@ukonward
and
@WeAreBrightBlue
. See you on the other side.
Hugely important consultation on the detailed design of the new UK CBAM (aka carbon border tax) due to come in from 2027. Looks like it is really coming now, despite it probably being a matter for the next Govt to implement. Little spotted fact but…
Will be on
@BBCNewsnight
this evening talking about what the Govt should do in the face of the £800 price cap increase facing households from October. No easy answers but urgent action now needed.
(3) Boilers are the new battleground. EVs and wind farms are seen as uncontroversial these days, so debate on the fringe scene was all about how we decarbonise homes. Clear concern about pace of change and cost, but consensus that Govt needs to start the long journey soon.
Big: Beijing considering carbon neutrality & new peak date for emissions. "China is willing to contribute more." Raises expectations for COP26 in Glasgow next year.
Seriously worrying and shows that bill support for those struggling can’t just be focused on this winter alone. Creates good case for more major interventions, such as a social tariff. Also strengthens the case for getting off gas faster than ever.
Excellent from
@JeremyWarnerUK
on the harsh realities of delivering a UK fracking boom. These issues were known for years in Govt and endless efforts were made to overcome them. Time to focus on energy solutions that will actually cut carbon and costs.
Brilliant analysis today by the ever excellent
@CarbonBrief
highlighting the first fall in India’s CO2
#emissions
for 40 years. The number crunching they do was always useful (and sometimes rightly challenging) when I was in Govt.
Haunting graphic from
@resfoundation
on the scale of the impending fuel poverty crisis. Even with major intervention, increase could be 6-18% from current levels. Difficult period ahead for millions.
Brilliant to hear from
@AlokSharma_RDG
on what needs to happen over the last 18 working days till
#COP26
. Not long left, but lots of determination to make every day count.
Will leave the full reaction until fully digested, but HUGE plaudits to all the countless negotiators, observers and many others that have achieved so much - including the world-class UK team of civil servants. Easy to criticise, much harder to do. Well done.
📢 BREAKING: The
#COP26
Glasgow Climate Pact has been agreed.
It has kept 1.5 degrees alive.
But, it will only survive if promises are kept and commitments translate into rapid action.
#TogetherForOurPlanet
🧵Thoughts on the Energy Strategy...The lack of short-term action on bills is bad - the strategy is not a plan for now, its a plan for 2030. But if you take it as that, beyond the new targets, there is real substance on which Govt should be applauded...
Significant change afoot to boost the case for electrifying homes. Sensible to phase in changes over time to avoid a bill shock. Also vital that Govt thinks in tandem about how it protects those who can’t pay to make the switch.
Confess I am only 43 pages in, but hats off to the
@theCCCuk
team and
@ChiefExecCCC
on a sterling piece of work. Sets out in v granular terms what we need to be doing over the next 15 years to hit net zero. Simple message - there is no time to lose.
Today we present the first ever detailed route map for a fully decarbonised nation. Our Sixth Carbon Budget report sets out the UK's pathway to reach
#NetZero
. It includes the changes which will result & key milestones that must be met. See
#UKCarbonBudget
Key learning of
#cpc2021
thus far is that the great boiler debate is here to stay. Every event thus far has come back to challenge of decarbonising homes, both cost wise and politically. Will be the key test for this Govt not just up to COP26, but until next election.
Recall the arrival of John Kerry at Paris in 2015. Size of his security detail outnumbered the whole UK negotiating team. Would be a brilliant appointment as he gets the detail and has the clout to bring the international community together at COP26.
Should call a spade a spade - this is a windfall tax. That said, impact on energy investment will all depend on the design. If set at level higher than bulk of future trading and is applied to actual revenue and varies by tech it should be workable. But…
(5) Get inventing: If we are to accelerate homegrown decarbonisation, new technologies will be key to balance the system and keep costs down. Govt should prioritise the record R&D budget to support energy storage, management etc projects before it's too late.
The killer graphic for me in what I have read of the IPCC report...pretty terrifying stuff, but also shows what can be achieved if we act now to swiftly reduce emissions this decade 👇
#9
Create a green and pleasant land: Galvanise public support by delivering a decade of natural renewal targeted at climate change. Could include a legislative target for afforestation, a new UK ‘COP26 Forest’ and a more robust market for nature-based carbon offsets.
Good news. Decarbonising industry will require a level playing field internationally and while carbon border taxes not the ideal solution, might be the best option in the near-term. Should allow a more coherent carbon pricing system at home too.
More severe than normal, but having been part of doomsday Govt planning can assure this won’t to be as bad as it sounds. Worse case scenarios v low probability and sensible for Govt to plan ahead…but perhaps finally time for that energy efficiency drive?
Govt has actually been forecasting negative “wholesale price impacts” of renewables for some time. While impact is pretty small, consumers will soon get cheaper power as a result of grid going green.
Have people just completely forgot why fracking was actually halted in the end? Small issue called earthquakes. Missed the unexpected poll bump for seismicity.
Exclusive
Boris Johnson has opened the door to a return to fracking in the UK, The Telegraph understands.
Wants his ministers to look again at whether it can play a part in improving UK energy independence.
Bizarre statement, and bizarre timing with UN climate action week in full swing. Expect Labour to respond by demanding an election to test the public view on the decision and feels like this sort of v direct campaigning means we are sliding that way more quickly than thought…
Finally got round to writing something on what the recent
@beisgovuk
major electricity reforms could mean for all those with our stake in a net zero future. TLDR: Change is afoot!
Hugely significant, but delivery a real challenge. Pace of deployment to renewables will have to increase significantly, as well as massive amounts of flexible power to avoid continued gas use. Will only be credible with a real plan for the latter soon.
#1
Dig what’s shovel ready: Target precious public funds at the things that will actually spark economic activity now. Focus should be on immediately deployable technologies, like energy efficiency measures, heat-pumps and EVs (not a diesel scrappage scheme).
THREAD: Looking through the
@theCCCuk
net zero tome that was published today, I picked up a few interesting nuggets. Lots of other great insights, but these were my top ones that offer some real food for thought:
Overall come away feeling reassured that the political dynamics on net zero remain strong and will outlast COP26. Whenever the next election is, we are sure to see climate as an area where the PM is keen to show he has got on with the job. A busy few years to come!
Huge plaudits to all ex-Govt colleagues for what is a Herculean effort. Of course not enough for net zero, but nothing will ever be. Near-term action is the key. Recommend all who are tempted to criticise depth of thinking in Whitehall have a proper read.
(3) Market reformist: Given the scale of the GW targets being thrown around, Strategy must signal how market structure will change to break link with volatile gas costs. Will take time and need to avoid knee-jerk changes, but Govt-led process must start now.
Definitely a big decision to come on Sizewell, but not a full green light by any means. Decision will be whether to enter into commercial discussions on a specific financing model. Will take 2+ years to actually agree. More of an amber light at this stage.
NEW
@trussliz
has told King Charles not to attend
@COP27P
next month. The King,a lifelong environmentalist, planned to be at the summit in Egypt to give a keynote speech and attend engagements. In contrast, the Queen gave an address to
@COP26
last year
If you read one energy / climate article today then worth making it this from
@emilygosden
. Unless we sort out the planning for generation and network infrastructure in the next 2-3 years there is little hope of a fully net zero power system in the 2030s.
Boris Johnson is set to make a slew of low-carbon announcements next week including a big green speech - he's just told
@CBItweets
that he's committed to carbon capture & storage, hydrogen, retro-fitting, electric vehicles and battery technology
Anything done to reduce energy bills should be welcomed, but saving households c£60 a year when the price cap could go up by £300+ in April means it’s mainly just a political win. Targeted (and larger) support for those on low incomes would be fairer.
Whatever you think of the long-term merits of major wholesale reform and locational pricing, they won’t accelerate investment swiftly or radically cut bills. Will ratchet up uncertainty and lead to more intervention not less. Need’s real, measured thought.
Expect this to be reposted endlessly if blackouts do actually happen. May not make a huge difference given many households already taking action but surely every little helps?
Exclusive:
No 10 has blocked a public information campaign encouraging people to save energy
Jacob Rees-Mogg signed off plans for campaign with potential £15m budget in recent days
No 10 rejected it today amid claims Truss is ideologically opposed
(6/7): While the plan starts to get into the trickier bits of net zero, such as decarbonising homes, it doesn’t solve the challenge of how to create compelling offers that consumers will actually want. There are also a few notable gaps, such as carbon pricing and flexible power.
Very excited about tomorrow’s launch of my report with the team at
@WeAreBrightBlue
on the need for a radical reform of the UK’s carbon taxes. By no means a silver bullet, but a better system is needed to hit net zero in a fair way.
🌱💷 OUT TOMORROW: Our new report proposing a new carbon pricing framework and green dividend to put the UK on a credible and fair path to
#NetZero
by 2050.
Written by
@jbuckland13
, it was previewed in The Times today 👇
Immediate reflection: In a way, the PM is right. Net zero is a major change, and will require trade-offs and costs that need to be properly considered. I have long thought that politicians are not honest enough about that, and need to be as things become harder. BUT...