“This is the most serious epidemic since the end of WWI. You can use the police to enforce emergency measures, and call out the military to support.”
Rory Stewart says the government has responded too slowly to coronavirus, and that tough measures need to be taken now.
If the Corbynite narrative was right, Brexit would be the big concern about Labour among Lab Leave voters.
Instead their biggest concern was Jeremy Corbyn, then spending. Brexit 3rd.
Ireland had a second referendum on the Lisbon treaty and got a different result. Anyone know if that is still a source of anger or did everyone just move on?
Tory post mortem will be carried out by politicos who cant help thinking in terms of left/right/centre. But they're wrong. They should start with valence: being seen as competent, reliable, trustworthy, sensible, serious, decent, responsive.
Corbyn changed Labour’s rules so it is fine to accuse Jews, and just Jews, of secret loyalty to another country. That’s the kind of thing a racist would do. Not sure why Margaret Hodge is in bother for bringing that up.
Somewhere in
@UKLabour
vaults is a memo from 2004ish about focus groups
@StanGreenberg
and I did with older working class voters. It was so dire campaign chiefs decided never to speak to those kinds of voter again. And now we’re here.
If Christine Shawcroft’s email [arguing holocaust denial is fine in some contexts] hadn’t found its way to
@SamCoatesTimes
, she would still be in charge of disciplinary proceedings
Amazing number of MPs saying they’re sticking because they’ve been labour since they were a kid. Many of them great MPs but parties should be mechanisms not tribes.
The problem isn’t Keir. It’s the Labour Party. It’s been on a 20 year journey to lose its reputation for competence.
Immigration > Iraq > No election > Financial Crisis > Ed/spending/leadership > Jeremy & everything.
Futzing about the first leader to get to base camp is silly.
If I’m reading it right, the ‘Cummings quote’ isn’t a quote from Cummings, it’s from the source who precised his message and tone - perhaps accurately, perhaps not.
@ShippersUnbound
There are lots of Labour members who don’t think Labour is anti-Semitic because the racist tropes are so ingrained they don’t notice them.
“Who’s paying you? Where are your loyalties? What about Israel?” seem to them sensible questions.
The news cycle moves fast, but this remains a huge issue very clearly articulated earlier this week by
@paulwaugh
. 700 000 kids without the tech to learn from home. Three months and counting falling behind kids with richer parents.
The only thing that unites the Tories and DUP is they don’t want a Labour government. Idea Lab putting down a confidence motion would matter is silly. Lab playing it right.
The polling on strikes is pretty even. Voters get workers want better pay. Lab has room to flex as things roll on.
The polling on leadership isn’t even. Voters want strength. There isn’t room to allow shadow ministers to stick two fingers up at the leader and do their own thing
When your media trainer tells you not to accept the premise of the question, they don’t mean you should say ‘I don’t accept the premise of your question’
Same poll...
Please imagine that a Brexit deal passes with the support of most Conservative MPs and most Labour MPs. How would you vote at the next election?
CON 42
LAB 26
Lib Dem 17
SNP/Plaid 5
Other 10
Anyone can write a leading question: “Parliamentary democracy is a cornerstone of what makes our country great and so MPs should not be prevented from voting on Brexit in the House of Commons”
Just re-read a report from 2010 focus groups with lost Labour voters.
@Keir_Starmer
is about to inherit a party with all the same brand weakness Labour had then, plus a whole load of additional ones. 10 years going backwards.
@rachshabi
Why do you think that? She had the opportunity to disavow the antisemitic racism and didn’t do it. I’m genuinely curious why the subsequent action that doesn’t count as zero tolerance in your mind.
Things you’d regularly hear in focus groups:
- Cameron ‘rides a bike but his driver follows him with his shoes’
- Brown ‘Sold our gold’
- ‘Yo, Blair’
‘Missed 5 meetings’ has the same combination of specificity and symbolism to potentially stick
If you want good people to become politicians, you dont intimidate their families.
I'm grateful to good people like Keir willing to put up with this. If that kind of representative vanishes, it will be partly because of this sort of thing. Who'd take a job that leads to this?
I’m hugely grateful to all the ‘foreigners’ who have treated me and my family when we’ve been ill. I can’t begin to understand how this could be a management priority.
@isaby
Clear win for leave; but what’s the basis for thinking the result was clear about what sort of Brexit was mandated. Leave campaign avoided that kind of prospectus
Corbynites angry this new group might cost them votes can deal with the risk quite easily - kick out racists in Labour, apply the same standards to Putin you do to Trump, recognise business isn’t all bad. It’s a low bar.
Who wants someone in the Shadow Cabinet whose political skill is such that they will randomly pop up to praise an article that attacks people who voted Tory and contains casual racism?
“Lab in hands of working class base”
This a delusion.
Lab lost ground relative to the Tories among working class in 2017.
Latest YouGov has Lab behind among working class voters today.
Lab leadership is dominated by public school boys.
3/ There's no clear party representing the globalist ruling class in U.K. - Tories broken, Labour in hands of working class base, Libs irrelevant, SNP checked out of the motel...
How can Boris get Leave voters to back a deal they previously rejected? Simply by supporting it. Most people don’t have have real views on trade policy, they take their cue from the people they trust.
Telling detail that the Independent Schools Council called a woman who grew up in poverty, went to Oxford, moved back to her small town, now shadow Education Secretary - “chippy”. Chippy.
The important bit wasn’t the theatrics about the ditch, it was the straight ‘yes’:
“Can you a promise today to the British Public that you will not go back to Brussels and ask for another extension?
Yes. I can. I would rather be dead in a ditch.”
Upshot of those threads from
@OwenJones84
and
@JohnRentoul
is the same: Labour will vote for a referendum only in conditions which mean it won’t happen. At the point at which it might, Labour’s (current) position is to stop supporting it
Key political line in Keir's
#marr
Marr interview: "over the last 10 years..."
The government has been trying to seem new (again). It's not. Labour is going to try and make it wear its record.
There are scores of v good journalists from a range of backgrounds and none succeed without incredible hard work.
But
@OwenJones84
is on to something. 90% of kids go to a comp; only 14% of top journalists did
I can at least comprehend the Labour left’s guttural dislike of some Blair era Labour figures. But the ire aimed at Rachel Reeves, Stella Creasy and Jess Phillips is really really really weird to put it kindly.
It’s a priming problem. “Brexit Brexit Brexit. Brexit. Now, who are you voting for?”
Obviously makes respondents think more about Brexit when answering.
Real voting intention is affected by so much more that this method tries to get people to artificially ignore.
Second, the point of lockdown appears strongly linked to eventual excess deaths.
Here, we show the relationship between an estimate of infections on lockdown day and eventual excess deaths
9/
This poll is about Muslim voters, but it has some general lessons. Highlights the gap between:
- ‘community leaders’ and the people they purportedly lead
- the borderline racist idea ethnic groups vote as blocs based on sectional interests, not NHS, Economy, competence, etc)
See
@ChrisHopkins92
thread for important caveats but even bearing those in mind this is strongly at odds with the prevailing narrative of a massive Muslim swing against Labour (and further evidence, not that it is needed, that the widely reported Muslim Census “poll” showing such
Terrific analysis by
@BethRigby
. Tories ripping up the playbook,but what if the anti-Tory identity in much of northern England trumps the pro-Brexit identity that is newly formed?
@E_Reid35
: "We chose to kneel because it’s a respectful gesture. I remember thinking our posture was like a flag flown at half-mast to mark a tragedy."
If you think your neighbour is being attacked, call the police. If you think recording might be useful evidence, record. If one of them is about to be PM, it’s of public interest.
There is going to be a huge row in the Tory party about why they lost, loads of research and segmentation and so on; and the core answer will be: a) they did several dumb things b) Lab stopped promising to do dumb things
This is excellent.
Stat that stood out for me: white unemployment is roughly flat during the pandemic. Virtually all the rise has been amongst BAME individuals.
“Please imagine the Labour Party wanted to increase spending g on the NHS, while the Conservatives wanted to spend less on public services. How would you vote...?” It’s obviously leading
(And another reason why the transparency standards the uK polling industry has voluntarily adopted are really really good thing. In some other countries we might not even see the question)
@iainmartin1
@DAaronovitch
A couple of Russian gay steroid dealers flew from Moscow to the UK to see Salisbury cathedral twice (because Stonehenge was closed). It’s a theory.
5) It is hard for people who live and breathe politics every day to understand to what extent most voters don't think in terms of the same clean ideological divisions.
But though voters are often ill-informed, their basic instincts are usually humane and sensible.
This was really worth watching. Powerful on their experiences, which are all the more shocking because they’re not unusual. Also a different lens on politics.
MPs Jess Phillips, Caroline Nokes, Dr Rosena Allin-Khan and Fay Jones sat down with Sky's political editor
@BethRigby
to discuss the sexual harassment, assault and abuse of women.
Full story here:
This powerful speech by
@angelaeagle
shows why representation matters so much in positions of power. Whether parliament or in business, nothing can quite substitute for first hand experience
"We aren't going to get back in the closet, or hide, or be ashamed of the way we are"
Labour's Angela Eagle makes an emotional plea to MPs to take action over LGBT teaching protests in Birmingham
BMG have it CON 39%, LAB 33%, LDEM 13%, BREX 4%.
Much easier to see how Lab grow from there than the Cons.
Don’t think this is 2017 all over again but it might be...
We're here because the hardcore on both sides of the referendum somehow became more empowered by a narrow result that should have pointed to compromise.
This from
@stephenkb
- is the key point on this week's antisemitism row. It's not that either RLB or Maxine Peake are antisemites; it is that they don't understand this issue and don't have the antennae for this particular trope that they have for many others.
(Ironically,) no matter how much I read about cognitive dissonance, I can’t square the fact Corbyn’s defenders regard themselves as strongly anti-racist.
Terrific piece by
@IanAustinMP
. Mystifying why so many self-proclaimed lifelong anti-racism campaigners chose solidarity with perpetrators rather than victims when it comes to racism against Jews
Less than half an hour to go, and Tory MP Steve Double says he still doesn't know how to vote. Says May's "polished turd" of a deal, "may be the best turd we've got".
Looks like this Labour report argues the manifesto wasn't credible, so Labour wasn't credible. That may be the wrong way round. Labour brand wasn't credible, so nothing they promised was.
The degenerate left claimed President Trump had health issues after drinking water with 2 hands.
Today he drank with one and tossed the glass to the side! 🤣
GREATEST. PRESIDENT. EVER.