Irish Election Projections @irishelectproj Twitter profile

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Incredible scenes in the Midlands North-West European election race

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

20 days

I think Ireland helping fight the Apple tax case on the side of Apple was a bigger waste of public funds than the bike shed and accordingly ought be a bigger scandal

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

5 months

Aontú announced a non-white candidate. This appears to have deeply upset their online supporters and they are currently getting ratioed into oblivion on the announcement post. Disturbing stuff, but this is exactly who Aontú have courted.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Genuinely ghoulish response on this app in reaction to Holly Cairns announcing her pregnancy, including a complete mask-off moment from Aontú's Dublin European Election candidate. Deeply abnormal, pathetic, nasty behavior.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

5 months

It is very telling that we have had yet another poll showing that housing is the number one priority for Irish voters, yet once again so much of the media coverage has instead been about immigration.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

This is *not* an exit poll. This is merely the total number of seats divided by the support percentages in the RedC poll published on 22nd May - more than two weeks ago. Don't misrepresent things. Don't mislead people for clout. Don't play yourself. Thanks.

Irish and UK Media News

@IREUKmedia

4 months

🚨 IREUKmedia EXIT POLL for the #LE2024 : 🟢 Sinn Fein: 199 (+118) 🔵 Fine Gael: 180 (-75) 🟩 Fianna Fail: 142 (-137) 🌱 Green Party: 28 (-21) 🔴 Labour: 47 (-10) ⚫️ Independents/Other: 246 (+61) 🟣 Social Democrats: 37 (+18) 🟤 PBP/Solidarity: 37 (+26) #Elections2024

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

1 month

Recent tweets re: Aontú are getting me RTs and follows from a certain group of people, so I would like to make the following clear: Trans rights are human rights. Other people's gender, genitals and identity are none of your business. Let trans people live their lives in peace.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

3 months

Events in Coolock are further evidence, were any needed, that the far-right only participate in electoral democracy to put a veneer of legitimacy over their true goal: committing acts of criminal violence

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Honestly in awe of the work @gavreilly has done over the last few days. An excellent communicator, and an invaluable resource - the depth and breadth of coverage and insight he brings to election coverage is unmatched. And he's sound too. Thanks so much Gavan.

Gavan Reilly

@gavreilly

4 months

Four days. 5 MEPs, 944 councillors, one mayor. 16 TV bulletins. Five Google Sheets, 500,000 views of a livestream being cast from a ten-year-old laptop under the bed, and 700,000 (!!!) views of a tube of 29 Smarties. One drive home. G’night all! 👋🏻

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

5 months

I know everyone is rightly laughing at the "Make Crime illegal" tagline... But we should also appreciate the irony of the fact that this poster appears as though it could be in breach of section 140 of the Electoral Act, 1992, and thus itself might constitute a criminal offence.

The Phoenix Magazine

@ThePhoenixMag

5 months

CONGRATULATIONS TO 30-something former Arthur Cox associate-turned-dog-groomer, Nick Delehanty, who is running as an Independent in Dublin South East Inner City. His poster should see him safely over the line. #LocalElections #Independents #Dublin #NickDelehanty #Goldhawk

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Aontú pile is a disaster for Niall Boylan. Just under 23% of transfers go to him. Doesn't even put him ahead of Lynn. Barring something completely incredible happening with the left wing candidates' transfers, he is cooked #EE24

Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Very impressive transfer discipline from Sinn Féin in Dublin - around 63%. The distribution of the Aontú votes is going to make or break Niall Boylan now #EE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

2 months

This means one of two things: 1. Sinn Féin's social media team are actively begging a fascist to support them, or: 2. Sinn Féin's social media team don't know who O'Keeffe is Neither of these are good!

Cianan Brennan

@ciananbrennan

2 months

Not someone to be engaging with lads

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

3 months

This is the second time the Irish Times have done this recently, and it's utterly reckless. Blatant misrepresentation of what was asked in their own polling, and once again it's migrants who will be on the sharp end of this deliberately misleading narrative.

Ciarán Nugent

@ciarannugent

3 months

'Immigration or housing the most pressing issues' 'Immigration remains the leading concern' The poll doesn't say either of these things at all. It asks 'what they had noticed about what the Government had done recently'

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Jesus Christ. "Breed" more. Disgusting comment from the final elected candidate to local government. Nauseating. A capstone on this election that ought remind us of the far-right threat ahead #LE24

Caroline O'Doherty

@codohertynews

4 months

It's all over in #LE24 #Kildare Newbridge. James Stokes of Sinn Féin excluded on the 11th count. Tom McDonnell, Independent immigration control candidate, is elected. He says this is a first step to the Dáil where he wants to bring in incentives for Irish women to "breed" more

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Philip Dwyer is a danger to himself and everyone around him. He should be banned from count centres in future. An absolute weapon.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Dáil seat projection for May 2024 Sinn Féin 59 Fianna Fáil 40 Fine Gael 39 Independents 18 Social Democrats 9 People Before Profit-Solidarity 4 Green Party 1 Aontú 1 Right2Change 1 Labour 0 Full analysis on the website coming this week!

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

5 months

It is very worrying to see multiple media sources (and, inevitably, Aontú) so desperate to chase outrage against migrants that they blindly believed a stat so blatantly erroneous that it implied Ireland has a total population of 50,000 people.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Here we go! New post: Analysis of polling around the European election, in depth on what the polls say, transfer history, polling gaps, and what we might expect to see over the weekend. Read more below 👇

European Election 2024

With the usual general election piece and the local elections covered this month, it’s time to turn attention towards the European election, which will be held the day after this post is publ…

irishelectionprojections.com

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

2 months

Fine Gael's opinion on whether or not the President should be a politically neutral office seems very directly tied to whether or not they agree with what the President is doing. Funny that.

Hugh O'Connell

@oconnellhugh

2 months

“Grossly inappropriate, fawning and tone deaf” Fine Gael politicians round on Michael D over “best wishes” letter to the new Iranian president 👇

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Sir, a second European Election candidate has been hit by Saoirse McHugh

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

This encapsulates part of Sinn Féin botched it on migration. The fact is, SF sided with David and the anti-migrant crowd on this issue. But note how he pretends how the opposite is happening. It is long past time for SF to wake up and realize they *cannot* win these people over

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

This is a pretty significant failure on behalf of An Post. Not being able to deliver in time is not great, but not informing the candidate that they wouldn't be able to is very poor.

Cllr Carolyn Moore

@carolynmoore_ie

4 months

I'm sure every election campaign has its highs and lows, but for me nothing will surpass the crushing blow of finding out yesterday - the day before polling - that An Post simply did not deliver the 5,800 leaflet Publicity Post campaign that I paid for three weeks ago.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

8 months

Not to spoil anything but it seems RedC are creating an entire "immigration-is-killing-Sinn-Féin" narrative off the back of 1% support for far-right & 1% polling increase for Aontú I don't even need to explain how dangerously irresponsible this is

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

This may be controversial but I believe any election candidate who consciously and unironically uses the word "woke" in their literature should be instantly disqualified and barred from running for office ever again

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

2 months

Dublin Mid-West voters looking at their ballot in the next GE

Social Democrats

@SocDems

2 months

🟣 CANDIDATE SELECTED 🟣 Congratulations to @CllrEoinOBroin who has been selected to run in the General Election for the Dublin Mid-West constituency!

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

2 months

I'm sorry but what in God's name is the Electoral Commission doing commissioning polls on racist conspiracy theories???

Gavan Reilly

@gavreilly

2 months

Blimey. Very striking findings from the Electoral Commission's research into voter attitudes around the Local and European elections...

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

The Dublin numbers for PBP in the latest RedC poll are something else - General 8%, European 10%, Local 10%. As usual extreme caution should be exercised with single polls and small party figures, but if accurate this would bring, at absolute minimum, a wave of council seats.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

2 months

Leaving aside the sheer petulant entitlement of the far-right in sending Deputy Gould this message, note that they refer to him as "Minister", not "Deputy". Utterly ignorant as to how this country's political system operates.

Thomas Gould TD

@ThomasGouldSF

2 months

As an elected TD, I will not be summoned anywhere by racists who associate themselves with loyalists who just the week mocked the victims of the Sean Graham massacre and people like Tommy Robinson who proudly supported Soldier F

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

On my way to the RDS - will kick off the live thread later on when I'm there, but don't expect anything major for a couple hours!

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

It is of course the people who keep telling us they want to "protect mothers and children" making such twisted comments about a mother to be and her unborn child

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Not that the rule is ever really enforced, but it is grimly amusing to see far-right candidates (not just supporters, but actual candidates) technically spoiling their own ballots by being thick enough to post them on social media for likes

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Spreadsheet of all Local Electoral Areas, who is elected, and who would be projected to take the remaining seats (this will change as counts go on) #LE24

LE 24 Seat Tracker

docs.google.com

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

It's polling day! I hope everyone has a fun time filling out their novelty oversized ballots

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Aontú need to make a decision pretty quickly - do they want to be a deeply conservative but relatively mainstream organization, or do they want to go the way of Renua and morph into a gaggle of frothing weirdos who tweet abuse at expectant mothers?

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

3 months

Mullooly and McNamara joining Renew is (a) a symptom of how empty and cynical their "independent going to shake up the establishment" shtick always was and also (b) something 90% of voters will not care about in the slightest

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

What's really significant about these numbers is that Sinn Féin are now consistently *below* their GE2020 vote. This is an utterly unprecedented polling collapse for a party that isn't in power.

Ireland Votes

@Ireland_Votes

4 months

POLL/POBALBHREITH — Dáil Éireann SF: 22% (-7) FG: 22% (+3) FF: 17% (+1) SD: 5% (-1) GP: 4% LAB: 3% AON: 3% PBP-S: 2% INDs & Others: 23% (+3) +/- vs. Bealtaine/May 2024 Via @Ireland_Thinks / @TheSundayIndo 31 Bealtaine/May 2024 S: ~1,000 #Ireland #Poll #Vote2024

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

1 month

Further demonstration of how dependent issue polling is on the way the question is phrased. Positive questions about migration (as seen here) yield positive answers, while negative questions (as typically commissioned by newspapers) yield negative ones

TheJournal.ie

@thejournal_ie

1 month

A new poll shows that a majority agree that Ireland should 'welcome people who move here to make a better life for themselves or their families'. Close to two-thirds, 64%, of people agree with the above statement, while 18% disagree. Read more:

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

3 months

Completely the wrong lessons

Irish Examiner

@irishexaminer

3 months

Sinn Féin ‘failed to reflect’ public’s views on immigration, McDonald says

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

1 month

The Green Party getting mad at Fianna Fáil for not being serious about fixing the housing crisis is honestly tragic. I have no doubt the Greens sincerely feel strongly, but they've been together in government for five years, and at no point have FF taken the crisis seriously.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

I generally don't like making definitive predictions, I feel it's cheap, liable to error and fosters misunderstanding about PRSTV. But I'm not gonna lie, sticking my neck out on specifically Niall Boylan being toast at 1pm and seeing it paid off at 9.48pm? Feels good #EE24

Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Aontú pile is a disaster for Niall Boylan. Just under 23% of transfers go to him. Doesn't even put him ahead of Lynn. Barring something completely incredible happening with the left wing candidates' transfers, he is cooked #EE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Some people on here drawing wild conclusions about future general elections from what happened in this local election. 2019 and 2020 just deleted from their minds entirely, apparently.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

6 months

Deeply, deeply embarrassing for any political party with aspirations to be even taken even half-seriously to present a Twitter poll as evidence of anything. Not Aontú's first foray into making farcical polling claims either.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Crime is now legal :( #LE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

This nudge-nudge-wink-wink hidden easter egg stuff from the IFP is so tiresomely typical of the terminally online far right. And then their supporters meme about how they aren't far-right, there is no far-right etc etc. Nobody ought take a single thing they say at face value.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Attacking people's right to vote is the tactic of miserable, anti-democratic losers trying to find ways to launder their racism. It really is that simple.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Celebrating her election with a funny, mischievous photo where she's posing on a throne made of ballots, and as a bonus sending giga-loser Ewan MacKenna into a frothing rage? I'm already starting to come round on Cynthia Ní Mhurchú #EE24

Ewan MacKenna

@EwanMacKenna

4 months

I'll go again on @cynimhurchu . This is not normal. Nor has anything I've seen of her suggested otherwise. Sadly she has now got rich. Thankfully she will disappear. This beat Mick Wallace? Don't care what you think of him, he tried hard and was honest. This? The state of it.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

5 months

A surprising (or perhaps unsurprising...) number of MEP candidates could have benefitted a lot from quickly opening up wikipedia and checking what the European Parliament actually does *before* they printed their leaflets

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

6 months

Could Irish political parties please consider using a colour other than green, my spreadsheets increasingly look like a dulux colour swatch for a particularly tastelessly decorated bathroom

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Going to take a break for a little bit after all this and then will be back with a post-election analysis piece. Shout out to @Ireland_Votes for their excellent work over the last few days #EE24 #LE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Me, after completing the local election analysis: I never want to see another spreadsheet again Me, two minutes later:

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Update: Hermann Kelly is coping extremely poorly with his latest political failure #EE24

Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Hermann Kelly is eliminated short of the threshold to reclaim his expenses. Of far-right candidates (not incl. AON & II), only Derek Blighe has managed to save his, with Peter Casey having a chance to do so. An expensive day in smoking lounges across continental Europe #EE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Clare Daly wins a Dáil seat in whichever Dublin Fingal constituency she chooses to run in at the next GE. Book it. #EE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

23 days

I suspect the very negative online reaction to Gráinne Seoige's candidacy will not translate to real life

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

13 days

While this is interesting, there is some important context here: farmers make up a relatively insignificant part of the Irish electorate. They are much more powerful as a lobby group than a voting bloc!

Gavan Reilly

@gavreilly

13 days

A new poll from @OpinionsIE , commissioned by the ICMSA to coincide with the Ploughing, suggests 14% of farmers will vote FF compared to 27% for FG and 16% for Independent Ireland.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

27 days

Critical period for Sinn Féin now - pivoting back to their main strength, housing. I suspect this is where they want to fight the election. Housing is still the number one issue for voters and a policy area that SF have been seen as stronger than the government. 1/

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

5 months

It's genuinely funny. Not only is the far-right split into a dozen different micro-parties because the people involved are all so detestable and horrible that even they can't stand eachother, but then those micro-groups can't function properly because they all hate themselves too

Gavan Reilly

@gavreilly

5 months

One small subplot to the European elections: Justin Barrett and James Reynolds, both of whom contend to be the leader of the National Party (with the Electoral Commission opting against deciding on either side), have both registered as NP candidates in Midlands North West

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

3 months

Jesus

Ireland Votes

@Ireland_Votes

3 months

POLL/POBALBHREITH - Dáil Éireann FG: 24% (+2) FF: 20% (+3) SF: 18% (-4) SD: 4% (-1) GP: 4% AON: 4% (+1) LAB: 3% PBP-S: 3% (+1) INDs & Others: 20% (-3) +/- vs. Meitheamh/June 2024 Via @Ireland_Thinks / @TheSundayIndo D: 5 Iúil/July 2024 S: ~1,000 #Ireland #Poll

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

🚨LOCAL ELECTION COUNT THREAD🚨 Ill be tweeting my own updates, and collating updates from others (with credit), posting in this thread I'd also recommend following @Ireland_Votes , @gavreilly and @thejournal_ie for updates #LE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

3 months

Oh for God's sake Eamon I had JUST started drafting the post-election analysis article

Ireland Votes

@Ireland_Votes

3 months

BREAKING: Eamonn Ryan is to step down as Green Party leader.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Hermann Kelly is eliminated short of the threshold to reclaim his expenses. Of far-right candidates (not incl. AON & II), only Derek Blighe has managed to save his, with Peter Casey having a chance to do so. An expensive day in smoking lounges across continental Europe #EE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

1 month

Proof of this circularity today: The Irish Times published a positive article about refugees, slapped a scary headline on it, paywalled the article but stuck the headline up on social media. They are making this happen themselves.

Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

1 month

Once again the Irish Times' presentation of the question is off, but also, media that reports on what the government says and does asking voters what they notice the government saying or doing is somewhat circular

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

5 months

While obviously RTÉ cannot host a 27-way debate, not including the Social Democrats - the fourth-highest polling party in the state - is extremely hard to justify. If there are pre-existing criteria disqualify them, this indicates that those criteria are seriously flawed.

Rory Hearne

@RoryHearneGaffs

5 months

RTE have informed us that I will NOT be included in the live televised debate on European Elections for Midlands North-West this Monday. This is anti-democratic & excludes the voice of the housing issue. It gives the establishment parties a free pass. @rte need to reverse this.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

The fourth seat in Dublin is utterly, utterly uncallable at this point. This is going to be a transfer rollercoaster, and a messy one #EE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Any more Twitter polls you'd care to share, Aontú?

Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

6 months

Deeply, deeply embarrassing for any political party with aspirations to be even taken even half-seriously to present a Twitter poll as evidence of anything. Not Aontú's first foray into making farcical polling claims either.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

8 months

I had just published a piece today about media pushing anti-migrant narratives but this is a new low, basically asking "Are crimes good when done to migrants Y/N". So many in positions of authority are utterly invested in manifesting the rise of the far-right

Mark Malone

@soundmigration

8 months

How critical are you of burning down emergency accommodation around the country seems a very odd question in this Sunday Indo poll. Are the AGS polling this time guage how people feel about no arrests being made on 20 arson attacks in 5 years?

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

1 month

Aontú have a higher number of female candidates than the Soc Dems, both in absolute terms and as a percentage of declared candidates. I think Aontú are excluded here because they have no state funding to lose, but the article doesn't mention them at all.

Social Democrats and Aontú the only parties so far to hit gender quota targets for general election

The Social Democrats and Aontú are the only parties so far to meet gender quotas ahead of the next general election as parties select their Dáil hopefuls.

m.independent.ie

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

presented without further comment #EE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Normally have no time for people who respond to polls by saying they are wrong or inaccurate without having a robust analytical explanation as to why... but I must say it is very, very difficult to find the European/Local numbers presented in today's Irish Times poll plausible

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

3 months

My view on Eamon Ryan's political legacy is thus: Among politicians in small parties, there are few who achieved as much as he did, yet also few who achieved so little of what they had the potential to achieve. The things not done define him as much as the things that were.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

European Election preferences are always, on the micro level, inscrutable. 62 people gave their #1 to oil exec Conor Murphy and their #2 to explicit eco-socialists in Bríd Smith or Robin Cafolla. 133 transferred from the arch-capitalist to union man Brendan Ogle! #EE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

3 months

The results in France ought provide lessons for the left and the centre across the world Those lessons will not be learned on Twitter dot com, where every Anglosphere commentator is engaged in a competition to post a bigger misread of the resutls

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

1 month

Not directly election related, but I think there's a good lesson about polling, data and misrepresntation in this. I want to talk about the "Dublin is in the top 10 most dangerous cities in Europe" headline that's been doing the rounds and why it is utter bollocks 1/

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

24 days

Absolutely no way that Fianna Fáil adding second candidates across Dublin is about anything other than the gender quota. They are not seriously competing for two seats in Dublin West, Dublin Mid-West etc.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

5 months

It's darkly amusing to see the far right continually scream vows of emnity at the so-called "MSM", when media has done far more to spread their message than they have themselves

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Based on some of the literature that has come through my letterbox in the last few days, the Electoral Commission is going to have its work cut out for it over the next few years fulfilling the combatting disinformation part of its mandate

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Turns out there is an n-word Tracey thinks you shouldn't be able to say

Tracey O'Mahony

@TraceyOMahony81

4 months

@LornaBogue Lorna, this highly defamatory tweet has been viewed 15,000 times in one hour. In case you are too stupid to realise, the burden of proof moves to the defendant in defamation cases. I would suggest you issue an unreserved open apology immediately or suffer very severe

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

3 months

Ok alright one more: George Galloway *losing* his seat in an election where a bunch of single-issue pro-Palestine Independents were elected is really, really funny

Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

3 months

Okay, fine one more comment on the UK election: The returning officer in Blyth has a really nice outfit and all returning officers should be provided with a hat like hers

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Wretched transfer discipline on top of a wretched vote split for Fine Gael in South. Mullins gets just 32.8% of Kelly's surplus. Sinn Féin's strategic botches will get most of the coverage, but Fine Gael have absolutely chucked away a potential second seat here #EE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

The Aontú transfers in Newbridge LEA have the opportunity to do the funniest thing ever (put the SF candidate and the Independent on the same number of votes so we get another recount) #LE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

6 months

Another chapter in terrible media polling coverage this weekend. This kind of sports analysis shows a deep misunderstanding of what is happening, what is at stake AND what is affecting voting preferences.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

1 month

Once again the Irish Times' presentation of the question is off, but also, media that reports on what the government says and does asking voters what they notice the government saying or doing is somewhat circular

The Irish Times

@IrishTimes

1 month

Immigration and housing continue to dominate voters’ perceptions of the Government, the latest Ipsos Snapshot poll for The Irish Times shows.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

16 days

Always fascinating to read a 4,000-tweet long thread of conspiratorial nonsense by a definitely-not-far-right Independent candidate, wondering the whole way through what the point of all this is, then get to the end and see the donation link. Of course.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

1 month

There's like nine people here. Nine and a half if you count Barrett.

Mark Malone

@soundmigration

1 month

Litler's Larping Loonies just dropped

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

3 months

Leaving aside what it may or may not mean for Independent Ireland, Ciaran Mullooly successfully pulled off being a right-wing opportunist. And it is sending those who failed at being right-wing opportunists into a jealousy induced meltdown. Pretty funny tbh

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

8 months

Afternoon all, it's a big update for the first post of 2024, which you can read here: First I'll be looking at Sinn Féin's worst poll in ages and the narrative that it's because of immigration - and why the data says that explanation is inadequate (1/)

January 2024 Projections Update

Seat totals Sinn Féin 61Fianna Fáil 41Fine Gael 37Independents 18Social Democrats 7PBP/Solidarity 3Green Party 3Labour 2Aontú 1Right2Change 1 Changes since October 2023 Sinn Féin -4Fianna Fáil +1Fi…

irishelectionprojections.com

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

I regret to inform you all that the Aontú transfers in Newbridge have infact done something deeply unfunny

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

2 months

As long as the government of Ireland continues to recognise Iran, this is standard protocol and Fine Gael haven't a leg to stand on here, vile as the regime is. Having their cake and eating it to score political points.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Blighe's transfers don't change much in the race for the final seat - Wallace stretches out a bit, as expected, but not enough to make him safe yet. One surprise: over 4.5k transfers from the far-right goon go to SF. Nearly 12%. Blighe's mate Tommy Robinson will be raging #EE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

5 months

Another depressing indication of the calibre of MEP candidate we have at the moment. And I bet the same people who yell the lie that they are about "defending women" will try to excuse this because it was 12 years ago. When Niall was literally *forty nine years old*.

Paul Murphy 🏳️‍⚧️

@paulmurphy_TD

5 months

Did Niall Boylan delete this because he's gone woke? The voters deserve to know.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

9 days

Because I keep having to go back and make revisions as new candidates are announced, the September Dáil projections are taking longer to finalise than anticipated. I'm still aiming for Sunday but it might realistically be next week. So until then, here is a preliminary summary:

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Social Democrats coming in winning a lot of tight contests for late seats. Definitely makes the day more positive for them, but still feels like they should have been able to achieve more. I have them finishing with 26-34 seats right now #LE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

26 days

Continuing model revisions - I think we are pretty close to an end state, but a few small things are still off that I want to work on and fix if needed. Should be ready to go for the end-of-September polls. Visualisation of where we are at below:

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

No denying this has been a disappointing election for Aontú, but what is this about a "post referendum bounce" that was apparently expected? Feels like a narrative in search of facts. Their polling barely moved in the aftermath.

TheJournal.ie

@thejournal_ie

4 months

Peadar Tóibín has defended Aontú's election performance after it failed to capitalise on a post-referendum bounce. Read more:

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

5 months

Listen. Let's be real. The far-right have already physically attacked people. It is only a matter of time before they escalate their intimidation tactics against politicians to the same level. This is all very alarming.

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

2 months

First draft of work on revised seat projection model. Sharing this only as indicative of the direction it is moving in; it's not complete. Work still needs to be done around a number of things, especially transfers. (Murphy counted as WIA for my own amusement)

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Alright, between this, Niall Boylan's tweets, Seán Kelly's hastily-deleted shirtless photos and the O'Reilly/Chambers beef, I officially have no clue what is going on with this election anymore

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

3 months

My only comment on the UK election is that it looks like Ed Davey is having a lot of fun

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

Btw I had done my homework here - I knew well before this who McDonnell and his cadres in "Éire Saor" are. This isn't a new sentiment for him to express. This is the kind of awful person against whom there is a long, hard fight ahead, for all of Ireland #LE24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

4 months

If polling patterns are accurate, the European (and local) election is at serious risk of being a disaster for Sinn Féin. A wide open goal, and they've blasted the ball clean out of the stadium.

Ireland Votes

@Ireland_Votes

4 months

POLL/POBALBHREITH — European Parliament [National] FG: 18% (-1) FF: 18% (+2) SF: 17% (-5) GP: 7% (+1) SD: 5% LAB: 4% (+1) PBP-S: 3% (+1) INDs & Others: 28% (+3) +/- vs. Bealtaine/May @Ireland_Thinks / @TheJournal_ie Bealtaine/May 2024 S: — #EP24

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Irish Election Projections

@irishelectproj

5 months

@Indpr0ject There are two types of people involved in anything politics-adjacent: those who are open about personal beliefs, and those who lie and pretend they don't have any. If you think the former means bias and the latter means neutrality, you may be too naive for this. Best of luck.

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