INCREDIBLE illustration of how compact and intense this tornado was. One house barely had damage and the house next door was completely flattened. Probably one of the most impressive examples of compact subvorticies I have ever seen
Some areas in Ohio have just received a quadruple upgrade in tor probs. From less than 2% to 15%#.
This may be the largest increase in tor probs from one outlook cycle I have ever seen
Well folks,
This is why you never call it a "bust" before the nocturnal low-level jet/main ascent arrives.
This is the 02z modeled RAP proximity profile in Ardmore OK.
Extreme low-level shear combined with favorable mesoscale interactions have created a volatile environment
Incredible day today as a major and incredibly widespread tornado outbreak occured today from IA to AR. We can safely say that the HIGH and MDT risk's verified extremely well.
But the SPC outlined this area 6 days out! Here is a GIF to show all outlined areas from every outlook
🧵This is gonna be a relatively controversial thread on what I really think about the chasing/meteorology community now that it is in my mind. Don't send me negative mail, I don't read negative mail, don't waste your time. But this is what I actually think: 1/...
This may be one of the strongest VROT's I have ever seen by a WSR 88-D with some very notable exceptions.
You better hope this ain't hitting anything because this is likely an extremely high echelon, violent tornado
Well, here it is.
The tornado that struck Matador TX has officially been rated an high-end EF3 tornado with winds of 165 mph, over a quarter mile wide and had a path length of 9.4 miles.
We have had tornado reports every single day since April 25th....
April 25th - 10
April 26th - 101
April 27th - 46 (including the Marietta OK EF4)
April 28th - 18
April 29th - 1 (random tor in eastern KS)
April 30th - 14
May 1st - 17
May 2nd - 12
219 reports of tornadoes total.
I will just say, I've seen a lot of major tornado outbreaks unfold on satellite over the past few years and this is one of those "looks"
Numerous confluence bands with rapid airmass destabilization and recovery with extremely strong kinematics throught the warm sector
And folks, I present to you the reason why we NEED basic meteorological knowledge taught to the public.
It's absolutely mind-blowing to assume consipiracies and the most incredible ideas the mind can come with that twist the reality in order to conform to someone.
A MASSIVE Tornado Appeared Out of Nowhere, DESTROYED Only The Pfizer Warehouse and Nothing Else, Then DISAPPEARED Into Thin Air!
MIRACULOUSLY nobody died because it happen during their lunch break.
⚠️ INSANE FOOTAGE ⚠️ HERE IS THE FULL VIDEO:
Not good news. Really bad news.
Storms are initiating in far SW OK and will likely be highly discrete given perpendicular shear vectors.
These are headed right into the heart of central Oklahoma within the next several hours
NWS Shreveport is doing an absolutely incredible job on what must be a nightmare for them with 8+ tornado warnings and countless flash flood warnings all at one time.
This is why they are degreed and do extensive warnind.decision training during these high stress situations
Saturday has the very real potential to be the highest echelon event we have seen all year in Oklahoma, even higher than 5/6. Extreme instability combined with classical strong deep layer shear and a nearly purely discrete storm mode gives me great concern
My goodness.
The wording on the Little Rock AR AFD is scary.
Mentions the risk for "strong to violent" tornadoes and the threat leaning towards the "worst-case scenario."
Dangerous day on Thursday, especially depicted by our friends in Little Rock
We can all say...
...both HIGH risks have verified remarkably well.
And we still have several more hours to go with this event.
Amazing job to folks at the SPC
Tornado that moved through Little Rock appears to have been a violent tornado based on tornado intensity guidance. Surveys will be done in later days to confirm this. Still a TOR-E remains in effect for areas northeast.
My mother is extremely ill this evening from a severe medical condition that she has had, but is getting worse every hour. She is going to the hospital now but I'm don't know if she will make it.
Please keep her in your prayers
NWS AFD ICT (Wichita) being particularly bullish with wording mentioning that "if storms can remain even semi-discrete, strong to potentially violent tornadoes are possible."
Saturday could be the real deal
Now we are all gonna hope and pray that this discrete supercell doesn't mature with surface inhibition that is making a beeline to the OKC metro/Moore/Norman areas within the next couple hours.
Because if it does mature, oh boy.
Here is a much better, higher contrast image of the incredible wedge tornado near Linneus MO today. The whole mesocyclone was practially OTG with this absolutely incredible wedge tornado.
#wxtwitter
This may be the most violent signature I have ever seen during my time in the meteorology community. Delta-v and VROT is high-echelon, and only seen by the most violent of tornadoes. Hopefully, cell mergers from the south can disrupt the inflow but clearly a dangerous situation
Listen, forget it's the GFS for a second...
...and Imma hop on the hype train fr.
In all seriousness, this may be the more synoptically evident severe threat in a long long very long time and there is some relatively decent agreement among ensembles with this...
Well folks, this is what has happened so far.
Tornado reports from Nebraska to Texas
Violent tornadoes over populated areas.
Today was one for the books with one of the more incredible tornado outbreaks in Nebraska in recent memory.
Prayers to all those affected
A violent tornado outbreak is expected today with the potential for several strong tornadoes, including potential for violent, long-track tornadoes across AR/TN and MS.
A rare upgrade to a HIGH risk is expected via MCD, first time in 2 years.
Big day today
The 12z HRRR is truly one of the runs of all time in the Ohio Valley. The perfect combination of substantial instability, deep moisture and extreme LL kinematics with a line of supercells in central Ohio.
If this solution were to verify, intense/long-track tors are possible
🧵
Lets talk about what the hell happened yesterday...from a meteorological POV.
In this thread, we will detail what happened with this event and how one cyclic supercell spawned several tornadoes, despite merging into a line of supercells and struggling to remain discrete.
All right, funs over.
00z HRRR = Holy shit
Literally hinting at a widespread major tornado outbreak across LA/MS/AR/TN. Shear will be exceptional across all areas with a truly scary environment.
Not to mention a fully discrete mode
Lets wait for other CAMS to resolve
Thoughts and prayers go out to everybody affected today.
From Rolling Forks to Winona and Silver City...
..and Amory up to Smithville.
This was a day for the history books and a day to be talked about for a long long time.
My goodness. HRRR for tomorrow shows an extremely volitile environment for major tornadoes (with surface-based convection) across eastern TN/KY. Very strong forcing with substantial cyclogenesis leading to extreme shear with modest instability. Very high parameter spacing
These types of "elongated trough sizes" are notorious in Dixie for major and long-duration tornado outbreaks, mainly because of the large ridge feature in the western Atlantic and digging and already negatively tilted trough.
Its quite the look synoptically.
Extremely concerning wording from the newest SPC outlook.
"Multiple long-track and intense tornadoes are **likely**"
An upgrade to a tornado driven HIGH risk is possivle pending increase in confidence in large coverage of discrete supercells capable of strong/violent tornadoes
We appreciate your patience wrt our rating of the Matador tornado. In consultation w/ the
@TTUNWI
(National Wind Institute), we are working on the final details of our Public Information Statement and should have it out later this afternoon.
#txwx
It's honestly shocking how much drama can arise with the WxTwitter community this early into the aftermath of a terrible event.
I have absolutely nothing to say about any drama ongoing between chasers, or content creators but I just have to say...
Lets all do a bit better
Idalia is organizing fast.
And I mean FAST.
A clear CDO evident with the newest NHC update increasing sustained winds by 15 mph and increasing intensity at landfall is serious stuff.
Idalia means business
Considerably strong wording regarding the southern upgrade to a MDT risk in this latest Day 2 outlook.
Despite capping concerns throughout most of the day, significant concern is evident for strong tors given a high-end parameter space. Hence, the SPC is taking it seriously.
When it starts to affect your personal and academic life, its time you tell yourself to PUT A LIMIT. Burnout is real, especially in meteorology. Don't put yourself or others in danger because of it.
Thanks for reading my TEDTalk
This satellite imagery is rather concerning. Breaks in the clouds south of storm activity with overall convection being relatively sparse and north of the WS has me deeply concerned about this afternoon. Strong/violent tornadoes are possible today across central Oklahoma
Incredible RaXPol loop from The 2013 El Reno tornado depicting an incredible central vortex and several satellite tornadoes rotating (and the Fujiwhara effect) around the main vortex. Arguably should have been rated an EF5 based on this data given 290 mph near-surface winds
This "forgotten F5" was an incredibly destructive tornado that destroyed numerous structures in this town. Another example of weak low-level flow with southeasterly propagation and ingestion of streamwise low-level SRH. CIMSS did amazing research on this.
What tornado was this?
I could not be happier with my first ever chase results. With seeing my first ever supercell up close and personal was an unbelievable experience.
September 23rd, 2023 - Slick OK
Why does it seem like the general public is getting less and less informed, educated and mindful of severe weather events despite so much advancement in technology and wide access to weather information?
I feels like people in the 80's and 90's would have been better informed.
Magnitude 5.1 earthquake in SoCal
Tropical Storm Hilary impacting SoCal
Tornado threat in SoCal
Flash Flood threat in SoCal
Just an average day in SoCal
Another very large Day 7 15% risk across the Mid-South where the SPC mention the possibility of "potentially widespread severe weather."
This does look like one of the largest Day 7 risks I have ever seen, but someone from the SPC would have to double check that idea.
Synoptically speaking, Tuesday appears to be a high-echelon severe weather day. Very large, enhanced longwave trough with substantial moisture advection and a stout LLJ.
Mesoscale early concerns are evident (overmixing/early 700 mb perturbation), but its still to early to tell.
A composite of profiles via NAM in central Oklahoma by 00z is just creepy.
00z OUN 5/7/24 about to be the most incredible observed profile seen in a long time
Forget the ratings all together for a second.
The real question is why tf we can't have well constructed structures everywhere and/or built up to code instead of construction companies cutting corners to save on materials. That's the real issue